Atlantic Regional

[ctrabs74]

Re: Atlantic Regional

Side note to the above post: Gannon is now actually No. 10 (not SRU). Gannon hosts SRU this Saturday.

I'm not sure why I had posted SRU as 10th instead of Gannon, but thanks for reminding me.

[IUPbigINDIANS]

Re: Atlantic Regional

No worries ... what you had was correct for the first batch. It changed in the second batch.

[boatcapt]

Re: Atlantic Regional

Official (2nd) Regional Rankings and what each has done since they were released:

1. West Liberty - Won at Notre Dame (OH)
2. Virginia State - Won at Bowie State
3. Shippensburg - Lost at WCU
4. West Chester Won (Ship)
5. IUP - Won (Edinboro)
6. Kutztown - Won (East Stroudsburg)
7. East Stroudsburg - Lost at Kutztown
8. Wheeling Jesuit - Won at Urbana
9. Fairmont State - Won at WVW
10. Gannon - Won (Clarion)


Narrowed-down Contenders List with Current Records (number of D3 games, which do not count in regional qualification metric, notated ... in some cases this changes D2 winning percentages a good bit ... i.e. Slippery Rock is currently 20-7 but has (2) D3 wins ... thus its regional resume record is actually 18-7 ... this is when you see those games come back to bite in some cases)

Edinboro was eliminated from the below list. The loser of SRU/Gannon tomorrow will also be eliminated from the 'at-large' conversation.


MEC

West Liberty (25-1)

Wheeling Jesuit (22-5) - D3 (1)

Fairmont State (20-7) -- Le Moyne considered out of region ... counts toward overall D2 record but not in-region record or in-region SOS


PSAC

West Chester (20-5) - D3 (1)

Shippensburg (20-6) - D3 (1)

Kutztown (19-6) - D3 (1)

East Stroudsburg (20-5)

IUP (21-7) - Ferris State considered out of region ... counts toward overall D2 record but not in-region record or in-region SOS

Gannon (19-8) - Northern Michigan considered out of region ... counts toward overall D2 record but not in-region record or in-region SOS

Slippery Rock (20-7) - D3 (2)

CIAA

Virginia State (22-3) - D3 (1)

Shaw (19-8)

No such thing as "in-region SOS" as a selection criteria. In fact the only selection criteria that the Lemoyne game will not count in is in-region winning percentage.

[IUPbigINDIANS]

Re: Atlantic Regional

Got it. I read over that list CTRABS74 posted too quickly.

I don't get all that crap. D2 is D2. Who cares if the state touches the other region, etc. Seems like a garbage category.

I don't think I'll ever understand playing these D3 games. I could see in an emergency just to fill a date but it's many of the same teams doing it every year. If SRU had two D2 wins instead of two D3 blowouts ... their stock could be much different. Heck, quality losses may have helped them more than D3 wins.

[timbertopper]

Re: Atlantic Regional

Got it. I read over that list CTRABS74 posted too quickly.

I don't get all that crap. D2 is D2. Who cares if the state touches the other region, etc. Seems like a garbage category.

I don't think I'll ever understand playing these D3 games. I could see in an emergency just to fill a date but it's many of the same teams doing it every year. If SRU had two D2 wins instead of two D3 blowouts ... their stock could be much different. Heck, quality losses may have helped them more than D3 wins.

In basketball, you're probably better off playing a D3 team than a bad D2. Doesn't count against your strength of schedule.

Along those lines, it wouldn't surprise me if losing to a strong D2 team helps you more across the board than beating a weak D2 team.

[ctrabs74]

Re: Atlantic Regional

Saturday's Results for Ranked Women's Basketball Teams in Atlantic Region

1. Virginia Union def. Chowan 58-56
2. IUP def. Seton Hill 86-71
3. Edinboro def. Mercyhurst 81-63
4. Glenville State def. Wheeling Jesuit 95-82
5. Virginia State def. Lincoln (PA) 64-56
6. Cal def. Clarion 73-50
7. West Chester Idle
8. Seton Hill lost to IUP 71-86
9. Chowan lost to VUU 56-58
10. Notre Dame (OH) def. Urbana 81-72

[ctrabs74]

Re: Atlantic Regional

Saturday's Results for Ranked Men's Basketball Teams in Atlantic Region (will update as games conclude)

1. West Liberty loses to (8) Wheeling Jesuit 74-84
2. Virginia State def. Lincoln (PA) 55-53
3. Shippensburg def. Bloomsburg 85-74
4. West Chester Idle
5. IUP def. Seton Hill 65-64
6. Kutztown def. Lock Haven 85-62
7. East Stroudsburg def. Millersville 73-66
8. Wheeling Jesuit leads (1) West Liberty 84-74
9. Fairmont State def. Shepherd 79-76
10. Gannon def. Slippery Rock 72-68

[Dirtybird]

Re: Atlantic Regional

If WL picks up another loss in the MEC tourney and Virginia St. rolls through their tourney...I have felt that WL hosting regional was in the bag but if that scenerio would play out what are the odds VS may host?

[IUPalum]

Re: Atlantic Regional

If WL picks up another loss in the MEC tourney and Virginia St. rolls through their tourney...I have felt that WL hosting regional was in the bag but if that scenerio would play out what are the odds VS may host?

That would end up being a numbers things with the formula but I think WL still would host. I'm more worried about someone knocking off VSU and stealing the CIAA title and an automatic berth. That would be horrific for everyone currently ranked.

[ctrabs74]

Re: Atlantic Regional

If WL picks up another loss in the MEC tourney and Virginia St. rolls through their tourney...I have felt that WL hosting regional was in the bag but if that scenerio would play out what are the odds VS may host?

You'd be surprised. The most recent numbers from the NCAA regional committee (does not include last week's games):

In-Region D2 Record: VSU 19-3; WL 24-1
Overall D2 Record: VSU 20-3; WL 24-1
Overall D2 SOS: VSU 0.519; WL 0.467
Performance Indicator: VSU 15.826; WL 16.000
Regional RPI: VSU .607 (1st); WL .590 (2nd)

Should West Liberty fall in the MEC tournament before, say, the semifinals, and Virginia State runs the table in the CIAA tourney, then there's a good chance the Atlantic Regionals could end up in Petersburg instead of West Liberty.

[IUPbigINDIANS]

Re: Atlantic Regional

Virginia State passed WL in today's release.

Wheeling jumped to 5. IUP fell to 6.

[ctrabs74]

Re: Atlantic Regional

Virginia State passed WL in today's release.

Wheeling jumped to 5. IUP fell to 6.

And, after their loss at home to Edinboro, IUP may very well be out of the playoffs...

[jrshooter]

Re: Atlantic Regional

I suspect Ship and East Stroudsburg punched their tickets with their wins last night. The Western reps will be solid underdogs Saturday.

[IUPalum]

Re: Atlantic Regional

And, after their loss at home to Edinboro, IUP may very well be out of the playoffs...

Not necessarily...

[IUPbigINDIANS]

Re: Atlantic Regional

Not necessarily...

See my 'homer spin' post on the IUP thread. They need some help but the casket isn't sealed yet.

Kutztown also losing last night was the first step in the long path.

Nutshell version:
* All PSAC-East final this weekend ---> Vegas would probably say good odds
* WL or WJ wins MEC ------> Odds are pretty good one of the two wins it
* VA State wins CIAA ----> They are scaring me a bit lately but are still the favorite down there

If those three things happen ... and, I'd say, the odds aren't terrible, ... then they have a ray of hope.

Lots of 'ifs' and they dug their own hole. If they meet the criteria Sunday night then so be it. It's not a beauty or popularity contest. The formula is the formula. You finish in the Top 8 of the matrix or you don't.

As of the Selection Show this Sunday night ... everybody becomes 0-0. Strange sh!t can happen on Regional Saturday. IUP just needs to pray no strange sh!t happens this Saturday.