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Atlantic Region - 2019-20

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  • Presidents Day Special

    I've been looking at all things Massey and what they use to come up with their various predictive tools. Basically, their Rankings are based on the games a team has played and how they preformed in those games compared to all other DII teams. In effect, it is a "reward" for past performance (games that have already been played). The current Top 10 for the Atlantic Region are:

    1. IUP
    2. WLU
    3. Ship
    4. Charleston
    5. Va State
    6. Fairmont
    7. Hurst
    8. Cal
    9. UPJ
    10. JC Smith

    But Massey also has another Ranking that few pay much attention to, that being their Power Ranking (Or PWR). The Power Ranking is the true predictive tool in Massey in that it looks at and quantifies past performance and attempts to predict future results. Massey's Top 10 Power Ranking for the Atlantic currently stand at:

    1. WLU
    2. IUP
    3. Ship
    4. Charleston
    5. Va State
    6. Hurst
    7. Cal
    8. ESU
    9. Fayetville
    10. Va Union

    Sooooo...if you are rewarding a team for how they have played thus far in the season, use the Rankings. But if you are trying to predict the future and win a Washington or Lincoln or two on this Presidents Day, use the Power Rankings!

    Comment


    • Originally posted by boatcapt View Post
      Presidents Day Special

      I've been looking at all things Massey and what they use to come up with their various predictive tools. Basically, their Rankings are based on the games a team has played and how they preformed in those games compared to all other DII teams. In effect, it is a "reward" for past performance (games that have already been played). The current Top 10 for the Atlantic Region are:

      1. IUP
      2. WLU
      3. Ship
      4. Charleston
      5. Va State
      6. Fairmont
      7. Hurst
      8. Cal
      9. UPJ
      10. JC Smith

      But Massey also has another Ranking that few pay much attention to, that being their Power Ranking (Or PWR). The Power Ranking is the true predictive tool in Massey in that it looks at and quantifies past performance and attempts to predict future results. Massey's Top 10 Power Ranking for the Atlantic currently stand at:

      1. WLU
      2. IUP
      3. Ship
      4. Charleston
      5. Va State
      6. Hurst
      7. Cal
      8. ESU
      9. Fayetville
      10. Va Union

      Sooooo...if you are rewarding a team for how they have played thus far in the season, use the Rankings. But if you are trying to predict the future and win a Washington or Lincoln or two on this Presidents Day, use the Power Rankings!

      The really cool thing this year (unlike most years) is so much of this will be settled on the court in the stretch run of the regular season (in addition to the crap-shoot conference tournaments).

      Major regular season games remaining:

      UPJ at Mercyhurst
      West Liberty at Fairmont State
      West Virginia State at Charleston
      California at Mercyhurst
      UPJ at IUP
      Virginia Union at Virginia State
      West Chester at East Stroudsburg

      Comment


      • It's VERY possible that the 2/29 matchup between ESU and West Chester won't mean anything to ESU for PSAC Tourney seeding purposes, but no one wants a loss going into the playoffs...

        Comment


        • Originally posted by WarriorVoice View Post
          It's VERY possible that the 2/29 matchup between ESU and West Chester won't mean anything to ESU for PSAC Tourney seeding purposes, but no one wants a loss going into the playoffs...
          It may mean a ton, though, for the 'real playoffs' (ESU nor WCU can't take many more losses to maintain hopes of the NCAAs).

          Comment


          • Originally posted by IUPbigINDIANS View Post

            It may mean a ton, though, for the 'real playoffs' (ESU nor WCU can't take many more losses to maintain hopes of the NCAAs).
            Understood...

            West Chester has to win the PSAC Tourney to get to regionals IMO. ESU might be in the same situation...
            Last edited by WarriorVoice; 02-17-2020, 05:25 PM.

            Comment


            • (Posted in "Regional ranking predictions" thread under General Discussion)
              1. Indiana (20-2)
              2. Shippensburg (19-5)
              3. Fairmont State (17-5)
              4. West Liberty (20-4)
              5. Charleston (19-5)
              6. Virginia State (19-7)
              7. West Virginia State (16-6)
              8. Pitt Johnstown (16-6)
              9. Johnson C. Smith (17-6)
              10. California (15-8)
              My weighted average has Fairmont State, West Liberty, and Charleston in a virtual tie. FSU's win over Shippensburg is the main reason they come out on top; there's a case to be made for putting the Fighting Falcons at #2. WLU visits Fairmont on Sunday; a sweep of FSU would be handy in breaking out of the MEC pack. (Though the Hilltoppers have a two-game lead in the conference standings, their SOS is holding them down.)

              California shows up eighth in the weighted average, but the fact remains that they're 0-6 against the other teams in this top 10. It doesn't look like they'll have a chance to remedy that until at least the PSAC semifinals – possibly not even until the final, at which point a win would put them in the regional regardless. Pitt Johnstown has the sweep over the Vulcans as well as a win over Shippensburg, which is enough to vault the Mountain Cats over Cal and Johnson C. Smith (whose only results against this top 10 are a split with VSU).

              The only team other than these ten that I can see potentially cracking this week's regional rankings is Mercyhurst, with their wins over IUP and UPJ.

              (The CIAA made the bizarre choice this season to have its 12 teams play a 22-game double round robin, but not count every game in the conference standings. The teams are official divided into North and South divisions of five and seven teams, respectively; each team counts both games against teams in their division, but only one against each cross-division opponent, totaling 15 counting games for North teams and 17 for South teams. Due to this, the CIAA standings are only useful for understanding the conference tournament seeding.)

              Comment


              • Originally posted by Inkblot View Post
                (Posted in "Regional ranking predictions" thread under General Discussion)
                1. Indiana (20-2)
                2. Shippensburg (19-5)
                3. Fairmont State (17-5)
                4. West Liberty (20-4)
                5. Charleston (19-5)
                6. Virginia State (19-7)
                7. West Virginia State (16-6)
                8. Pitt Johnstown (16-6)
                9. Johnson C. Smith (17-6)
                10. California (15-8)
                My weighted average has Fairmont State, West Liberty, and Charleston in a virtual tie. FSU's win over Shippensburg is the main reason they come out on top; there's a case to be made for putting the Fighting Falcons at #2. WLU visits Fairmont on Sunday; a sweep of FSU would be handy in breaking out of the MEC pack. (Though the Hilltoppers have a two-game lead in the conference standings, their SOS is holding them down.)

                California shows up eighth in the weighted average, but the fact remains that they're 0-6 against the other teams in this top 10. It doesn't look like they'll have a chance to remedy that until at least the PSAC semifinals – possibly not even until the final, at which point a win would put them in the regional regardless. Pitt Johnstown has the sweep over the Vulcans as well as a win over Shippensburg, which is enough to vault the Mountain Cats over Cal and Johnson C. Smith (whose only results against this top 10 are a split with VSU).

                The only team other than these ten that I can see potentially cracking this week's regional rankings is Mercyhurst, with their wins over IUP and UPJ.

                (The CIAA made the bizarre choice this season to have its 12 teams play a 22-game double round robin, but not count every game in the conference standings. The teams are official divided into North and South divisions of five and seven teams, respectively; each team counts both games against teams in their division, but only one against each cross-division opponent, totaling 15 counting games for North teams and 17 for South teams. Due to this, the CIAA standings are only useful for understanding the conference tournament seeding.)
                Ship's record is 20-5.

                Comment


                • Originally posted by Ship69 View Post

                  Ship's record is 20-5.
                  The win over Dickinson doesn't count.

                  Comment


                  • Appreciate all your work on this, Inkblot. Thanks!

                    Comment


                    • Originally posted by Ship69 View Post

                      Ship's record is 20-5.
                      In the actual Regional Rankings only games against D2 schools count. So, the Dickinson win is basically irrelevant.

                      Same with all the PSU branches, etc.

                      I personally feel they should throw the stats out for those games, too, when it comes to awarding scoring titles, etc.

                      Comment


                      • Originally posted by IUPbigINDIANS View Post


                        The really cool thing this year (unlike most years) is so much of this will be settled on the court in the stretch run of the regular season (in addition to the crap-shoot conference tournaments).

                        Major regular season games remaining:

                        UPJ at Mercyhurst
                        West Liberty at Fairmont State
                        West Virginia State at Charleston
                        California at Mercyhurst
                        UPJ at IUP
                        Virginia Union at Virginia State
                        West Chester at East Stroudsburg
                        Depends on who wins those games. For example, if WVS beats UC, are you going to put them ahead of UC? If so, does UC get the nod over Cal? What about Fairmont armed with their two wins over WVS to go along with their win over Ship?

                        As with most years, I think there will be more than enough room for legit disagreement with the teams that the NCAA selects to represent the Atlantic AND were those teams are seeded.

                        Comment


                        • This week's coaches poll is out:

                          8. IUP
                          16. WLU

                          Receiving Votes: Ship

                          Comment


                          • 3-loss Azusa Pacific leapfrogged the Crimson Hawks in the poll. Interesting.

                            Comment


                            • Originally posted by Scrub View Post
                              3-loss Azusa Pacific leapfrogged the Crimson Hawks in the poll. Interesting.
                              Meaningless...

                              Comment


                              • Originally posted by Scrub View Post
                                3-loss Azusa Pacific leapfrogged the Crimson Hawks in the poll. Interesting.
                                Name out of the past. IUP played them in the Elite 8 in 2014-15.

                                Comment

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