2016-2017 Kentucky Wesleyan basketball thread.

[bkingbroker]

Re: 2016-2017 Kentucky Wesleyan basketball thread.

Looks like you are finally coming around. Great to see!

If they don't they should fire Watson. GLVC is not very good. Been going downhill since KWC left. If those teams beat each other up, it could open door for KWC to host if things really go right. The GLIAC isn't very good. Yes our league is not good either but if KWC is 28-2 and the best the GLVC can offer is a 19-8 team before their conference tournament, I'd say KWC would have to be in the conversation for a No. 1 seed. If we had beat USI....well, this would be a moot point.

[schnautza]

Re: 2016-2017 Kentucky Wesleyan basketball thread.

Again, barring an epic meltdown, USI will finish the season much better than 19-8.

Just for the sake of conversation (not argument)

Of the 11 games left on USI's schedule, I see 5 that could be toss-ups, and two are this week - I'm counting home games at UWP, Lewis, Drury, and road games at Indy and Bell. If we lose all 5 of them, we end at 22-6.
I'd consider any losses outside of those 5 to be "meltdowns". And I'm still on the fence for Indy and Drury as both seem to be slipping a bit this year in their dominance.

Now, if USI checks in at 22-6 prior to conference tourney, how would you compare that to KWC's 28-2 (assuming they win out)? I'd have a genuinely hard time comparing the two teams due to SOS. USI had a cupcake non-conf schedule and KWC had a cupcake conference schedule (with some overlap between the two).

USI and KWC both have wins over Truman, which is impressive. USI has a win over a solid Quincy team and KWC (this alone may be the straw that breaks the camel's back), followed by a win over a mediocre Ashland. KWC beat a mediocre Hillsdale and Michigan Tech and a good Wayne State.

[GMAC-Battler]

Re: 2016-2017 Kentucky Wesleyan basketball thread.

Just for the sake of conversation (not argument)

Of the 11 games left on USI's schedule, I see 5 that could be toss-ups, and two are this week - I'm counting home games at UWP, Lewis, Drury, and road games at Indy and Bell. If we lose all 5 of them, we end at 22-6.
I'd consider any losses outside of those 5 to be "meltdowns". And I'm still on the fence for Indy and Drury as both seem to be slipping a bit this year in their dominance.

Now, if USI checks in at 22-6 prior to conference tourney, how would you compare that to KWC's 28-2 (assuming they win out)? I'd have a genuinely hard time comparing the two teams due to SOS. USI had a cupcake non-conf schedule and KWC had a cupcake conference schedule (with some overlap between the two).

USI and KWC both have wins over Truman, which is impressive. USI has a win over a solid Quincy team and KWC (this alone may be the straw that breaks the camel's back), followed by a win over a mediocre Ashland. KWC beat a mediocre Hillsdale and Michigan Tech and a good Wayne State.

If KWC is 28-2 and USI is like 20-8 before the GLVC, loses in 1st or 2nd round, I say you have to consider KWC as the No. 1 seed. That assume Bellarmine and UWP loses 7-8 times as well. The committee probably will not consider KWC because of our league. They like arenas with a lot of seats and the Sports Center has 5,000. That could play a part in KWC's bid to host. Now if USI does go on and finish 26-2 and wins the GLVC, yes, they should host. Or if UWP does the same.

[schnautza]

Re: 2016-2017 Kentucky Wesleyan basketball thread.

If KWC is 28-2 and USI is like 20-8 before the GLVC, loses in 1st or 2nd round, I say you have to consider KWC as the No. 1 seed. That assume Bellarmine and UWP loses 7-8 times as well. The committee probably will not consider KWC because of our league. They like arenas with a lot of seats and the Sports Center has 5,000. That could play a part in KWC's bid to host. Now if USI does go on and finish 26-2 and wins the GLVC, yes, they should host. Or if UWP does the same.

I didn't ask about 20-8, I asked about 22-6. Those 2 more wins make huge difference in the conversation. And in all honesty, I don't expect that we will lose that many as long as we don't have a repeat of our woes against BU.

[DJ Silky Panties]

Re: 2016-2017 Kentucky Wesleyan basketball thread.

Just for the sake of conversation (not argument)

Of the 11 games left on USI's schedule, I see 5 that could be toss-ups, and two are this week - I'm counting home games at UWP, Lewis, Drury, and road games at Indy and Bell. If we lose all 5 of them, we end at 22-6.
I'd consider any losses outside of those 5 to be "meltdowns". And I'm still on the fence for Indy and Drury as both seem to be slipping a bit this year in their dominance.

Now, if USI checks in at 22-6 prior to conference tourney, how would you compare that to KWC's 28-2 (assuming they win out)? I'd have a genuinely hard time comparing the two teams due to SOS. USI had a cupcake non-conf schedule and KWC had a cupcake conference schedule (with some overlap between the two).

USI and KWC both have wins over Truman, which is impressive. USI has a win over a solid Quincy team and KWC (this alone may be the straw that breaks the camel's back), followed by a win over a mediocre Ashland. KWC beat a mediocre Hillsdale and Michigan Tech and a good Wayne State.

If USI loses those 5 and finish with 6 losses at this point HoTWoD will pull off a trifecta of sittin at BWW Carbondale come tourney time.

[schnautza]

Re: 2016-2017 Kentucky Wesleyan basketball thread.

That assume Bellarmine and UWP loses 7-8 times as well.

Even that is a bit of an overestimate in my opinion. BU is at 3 losses on the season, so they are closer to that, but I would guess they end with no more than 6 prior to GLVC tourney. UWP only has one loss so far, and I would estimate 4 more losses max out of them.

[GMAC-Battler]

Re: 2016-2017 Kentucky Wesleyan basketball thread.

Even that is a bit of an overestimate in my opinion. BU is at 3 losses on the season, so they are closer to that, but I would guess they end with no more than 6 prior to GLVC tourney. UWP only has one loss so far, and I would estimate 4 more losses max out of them.

You and I have no idea how many times any of these teams are gonna lose. Your point system has been wrong all season on who is favored in games, you don't measure winners and losers with a chart, you play the game on the court, players are sometimes sick or miss games to injury. KWC was not at full strength when they played USI at the small college classic, have added two very important guys in their rotation. I say our league is not good, but I can say that about a lot of league in D-2. Bottom line is KWC finishes 28-2, they pass any eye test. Now they need USI, Bellarmine, UWP to lose some more games, but it does not look like any of the GLVC teams are world beaters after USI gets stomped on at home by a very average Bellermine team.

[kwcpantherfan]

Re: 2016-2017 Kentucky Wesleyan basketball thread.

Drury has been very overrated all year and hasn't really beaten anyone significant. A couple of decent wins, maybe, but when they've played GOOD teams they've lost. The best record of any team they have beaten is 2 games over .500, 10-8 Mo Southern and 9-7 SW Baptist. And yes, Drury guys, similar claims can pretty much be made of KWC...keep in mind I'm not trying to bash Drury, just making the point that I don't think they are a serious threat to USI, assuming USI doesn't lose their heads over the BU loss. Indy has been bad most of the year but seems to be trying to snap out of it...but likewise, I just don't see them beating USI. So, in my mind, the most realistic "worst" record you're likely to see USI end up with is probably 24-4. Now, we all know anyone can manage to lose to anyone else at any given time, but that record is based on the assumption that they aren't going to lose to anyone they shouldn't, and that they do lose to Parkside, Bellarmine (again), and Lewis, any of which could easily NOT end up being a loss.

The point about Parkside currently standing with only 1 loss is also valid. They're highly unlikely to hit more than 4 or 5 losses, tops, either. And Bellarmine most likely won't lose many more either, due to the fact that they have the same relatively easy remaining schedule that USI has. Note emphasis on relatively.

[GMAC-Battler]

Re: 2016-2017 Kentucky Wesleyan basketball thread.

Drury has been very overrated all year and hasn't really beaten anyone significant. A couple of decent wins, maybe, but when they've played GOOD teams they've lost. And yes, Drury guys, the same can pretty much been said of KWC...keep in mind I'm not trying to bash Drury, just making the point that I don't think they are a serious threat to USI, assuming USI doesn't lose their heads over the BU loss. Indy has been bad most of the year but seems to be trying to snap out of it...but likewise, I just don't see them beating USI. So, in my mind, the most realistic "worst" record you're likely to see USI end up with is probably 24-4. Now, we all know anyone can manage to lose to anyone else at any given time, but that record is based on the assumption that they aren't going to lose to anyone they shouldn't, and that they do lose to Parkside, Bellarmine (again), and Lewis, any of which could easily NOT end up being a loss.

The point about Parkside currently standing with only 1 loss is also valid. They're highly unlikely to hit more than 4 or 5 losses, tops, either. And Bellarmine most likely won't lose many more either, due to the fact that they have the same relatively easy remaining schedule that USI has. Note emphasis on relatively.

I agree with your points. Drury was so far over rated by this guy's charts, they are now tanking big time. I don't say USI will lose 8 times, but it's possible. I think Bellarmine and UWP will both lose a few more games. I DO NOT see KWC losing again before the regional. If they do win out and the others struggle down the stretch, the committee should look at KWC closer and how they were not at full strength in the small college classic. I wish they had played that thing in January, KWC would have been at full strength and the game against USI would be a better indicator than one played in November. This is another reason Happy needs to get Bellarmine and USI both on the regular schedule every year.

[schnautza]

Re: 2016-2017 Kentucky Wesleyan basketball thread.

You and I have no idea how many times any of these teams are gonna lose. Your point system has been wrong all season on who is favored in games, you don't measure winners and losers with a chart, you play the game on the court, players are sometimes sick or miss games to injury. KWC was not at full strength when they played USI at the small college classic, have added two very important guys in their rotation. I say our league is not good, but I can say that about a lot of league in D-2. Bottom line is KWC finishes 28-2, they pass any eye test. Now they need USI, Bellarmine, UWP to lose some more games, but it does not look like any of the GLVC teams are world beaters after USI gets stomped on at home by a very average Bellermine team.

I think you think I use the performance indicators to predict outcomes. You are wrong. The rest of your post is irrelevant to that respect.

[crazznewt]

Re: 2016-2017 Kentucky Wesleyan basketball thread.

I agree with your points. Drury was so far over rated by this guy's charts, they are now tanking big time. I don't say USI will lose 8 times, but it's possible. I think Bellarmine and UWP will both lose a few more games. I DO NOT see KWC losing again before the regional. If they do win out and the others struggle down the stretch, the committee should look at KWC closer and how they were not at full strength in the small college classic. I wish they had played that thing in January, KWC would have been at full strength and the game against USI would be a better indicator than one played in November. This is another reason Happy needs to get Bellarmine and USI both on the regular schedule every year.

Drury had been starting 2 freshmen and two sophomores. One of those sophomores logged next to zero playing time last year.
It seems like it takes players a year to get comfortable in Hesser's system.
Hopefully by the end of this season they can be a threat in the GLVC Tourney.

[schnautza]

Re: 2016-2017 Kentucky Wesleyan basketball thread.

Just to clarify, because it seems there is confusion for at least one individual on here. My "charts" as they have been called are not a ranking system to predict who is better than who. It is a system set up by the NCAA as part of the tournament selection criteria and is solely based on games played to date. You win against good opponents, you move up. You only play cupcakes, you don't fall far but you don't have a good chance of moving up.

In no way, shape, or form is the Performance Indicator to be used as a model to forecast the outcome of the games. That's why the games are played. There are bound to be some upsets if you erroneously look at it that way, but the numbers adjust themselves accordingly following those games. If a team is highly overrated, they will drop when they lose.

Additionally, any input I give on my predictions of who will win what games are solely based on my observations of who is a strong team and who is not. And if you look at the GLVC pick'em, I'm not that far off from the other guys on my opinions of the strongest teams in the GLVC.

[GMAC-Battler]

Re: 2016-2017 Kentucky Wesleyan basketball thread.

Just to clarify, because it seems there is confusion for at least one individual on here. My "charts" as they have been called are not a ranking system to predict who is better than who. It is a system set up by the NCAA as part of the tournament selection criteria and is solely based on games played to date. You win against good opponents, you move up. You only play cupcakes, you don't fall far but you don't have a good chance of moving up.

In no way, shape, or form is the Performance Indicator to be used as a model to forecast the outcome of the games. That's why the games are played. There are bound to be some upsets if you erroneously look at it that way, but the numbers adjust themselves accordingly following those games. If a team is highly overrated, they will drop when they lose.

Additionally, any input I give on my predictions of who will win what games are solely based on my observations of who is a strong team and who is not. And if you look at the GLVC pick'em, I'm not that far off from the other guys on my opinions of the strongest teams in the GLVC.

Backs up my points, those charts don't mean anything as far as who wins or loses. You can't measure how hard a team plays, injuries, sickness, or anything like that. Some teams match up better with another than others, like when KWC played Auburn-Montg. the other day. You play the games on the court and let it roll. The enthusiasm is picking up for the KWC home games, crowds are getting better in the Sports Center, it's becoming a home floor advantage again. If KWC could somehow earn the No. 1 seed for the regional, I really don't think any GLVC or GLIAC teams want to visit the Sports Center.

[kwcpantherfan]

Re: 2016-2017 Kentucky Wesleyan basketball thread.

So you're not behind the curtain deciding who wins and loses based on your numbers? And here I was wondering why you would make Bellarmine beat USI when USI clearly has the higher PI. :-P

[KnightStalker]

Re: 2016-2017 Kentucky Wesleyan basketball thread.

Even that is a bit of an overestimate in my opinion. BU is at 3 losses on the season, so they are closer to that, but I would guess they end with no more than 6 prior to GLVC tourney. UWP only has one loss so far, and I would estimate 4 more losses max out of them.

Realistically, I don't see either BU or USI losing more than 2 the rest of the way, and Parkside losing 3. So Parkside will be 24-4, USI 25-3 and BU 23-5. If USI and BU beat Parkside this weekend, it may well come down to who wins the last game between them. I should also mention that Ferris St. still has a shot but the way the GLIAC beats up on each other I am not sure they could go with 3 or less losses the rest of the way.