West Liberty Hilltopper Basketball

[Columbuseer]

It is really hard to win a regional as well as elite 8 game, regardless of the style one plays. Elite teams are elite for a reason. D2 seeding is done regionally, so you might have a #1 versus #2 in the nation face each other in regional ( condolences to northern state who was likely #2 in nation).

• Great coaches are the rule not the exception. Look at teams wlu lost to in 2015 thru 2021 - great coaches every one and their players follow instructions.
• The athletes are elite. Until recently, wlu had typically at most one elite athlete, ala Dan monteroso who played wr at purdue. They had many great, complete basketball players but not elite pure athletes. these elite teams had several players who were mid to high d1 level athletes.
  • 2016 lm was loaded with 3 elite players. 6-9 Terry signed with Phoenix suns after dominating NBA summer league (famous for viral video of him leaping over a guy). Lm often has someone in running for national player of year.
  • 2017 wj had Highsmith who played for 76ers, Moseh and Boswell.
  • 2018 had sleva, who plays in Europe and tbt and great 3 pt shooters - killer combo
  • 2019 had 2 awesome bigs and we shot poorly.
  • 2021 - nwmsu had great positionless offense and at least 3 high d1 athletes and national player of year. Lost to Duke by 6. Generally acknowledged they are at a whole other level from everyone else. Lowest elite 8 winning margin against wlu and we did not have will yoakum ( some consolation, huh? Lol). Just like wlu, they don't change what they do for any team.

Data analytics favor the wlu and nwmsu style. In the last three years, wlu is getting more and better pure athletes, who are just as complete players as those in the past.
WLU now has legitimate rim runners who can hit the three. They are winning now when threes are not falling.

The great athletes are now at least 8 deep on wlu roster.

imho, a big "inside only" guy who is capable of defending an elite big is not going to sit on the bench as Mr. Contingency, when he can star in traditional offenses at other schools.
He also clogs up the middle which disrupts the offense wlu runs. wlu is not going to add more offenses, for that is not the root cause for losing to elite teams. Getting better athletes, avoiding hero ball and not letting the ball stick are the keys.

[boatcapt]

If that 14-15 team had Daddy Ugbede it would have been WL in the national title game instead of IUP.

The roadblock seems to be once you get to those elite teams ... you aren't scoring 130 ppg.

When you look at recent WL losses in March:

14-15 (IUP) - WL scored 74 points
15-16 (LM) - WL scored 102 but still lost
16-17 (WJ) - WL scored 95 but still lost (albeit to an MEC team)
17-18 (Ship) - WL scored 66 points and gave up 98
18-19 (Mercyhurst) - WL scored 70 points
19-20 - No Tournament
20-21 (NWMT) - WL scored 77 points


So, add it up and in those losses WL is scoring (on average) 80.6 ppg -- nearly, what 25 ppg less than its typical season average. In the three losses versus PSAC teams, the average dropped to 70.0 ppg.

Yes, WLU's scoring goes down dramatically in the NCAA tourney, but there is also a decrease in scoring by WLU's opponents. Over the same period of time, WLU averaged giving up 84.7 PPG during the regular season. In NCAA games that WLU has won, they average giving up 74.6. In the two wins versus PSAC teams, WLU averaged scoring 95.5 PPG

Most coaches build their teams for regular season success and perhaps conference tourney success. Kind of like the PSAC of old were mastadons patrolled the key and teams struggled to score 60 points. WLU showed these teams that if they wanted to compete for NCAA tourney success, they needed to change and adapt...and they did. WLU has developed a system that is VERY successful in the regular season and pretty successful in the NCAA Tourney. But to get over the NCAA Tourney hump so to speak and win a NC, the team needs to adapt and be built to compete in March when scores come down and defenses become more capable of stopping what we do.

[Columbuseer]

Yes, WLU's scoring goes down dramatically in the NCAA tourney, but there is also a decrease in scoring by WLU's opponents. Over the same period of time, WLU averaged giving up 84.7 PPG during the regular season. In NCAA games that WLU has won, they average giving up 74.6. In the two wins versus PSAC teams, WLU averaged scoring 95.5 PPG

Most coaches build their teams for regular season success and perhaps conference tourney success. Kind of like the PSAC of old were mastadons patrolled the key and teams struggled to score 60 points. WLU showed these teams that if they wanted to compete for NCAA tourney success, they needed to change and adapt...and they did. WLU has developed a system that is VERY successful in the regular season and pretty successful in the NCAA Tourney. But to get over the NCAA Tourney hump so to speak and win a NC, the team needs to adapt and be built to compete in March when scores come down and defenses become more capable of stopping what we do.

Good points. I am confident that opponents in tourney try to reduce the number of possessions against wlu by:

• Limiting their turnovers
• Avoiding bad or rushed shots
• Limiting wlu fast breaks

Provided you can keep the score close, it can be a winning strategy. But if you are behind double digits with under 10 mins to play, opponents have to play faster, which accelerates their fatigue. Hillsdale was example of a great team who followed this strategy, but fell behind and had to play faster.

[boatcapt]

Good points. I am confident that opponents in tourney try to reduce the number of possessions against wlu by:

• Limiting their turnovers
• Avoiding bad or rushed shots
• Limiting wlu fast breaks

Provided you can keep the score close, it can be a winning strategy. But if you are behind double digits with under 10 mins to play, opponents have to play faster, which accelerates their fatigue. Hillsdale was example of a great team who followed this strategy, but fell behind and had to play faster.

Better teams are more capable of doing what you point out and as you progress in the tourney, you face better and better teams. When you face that team that has your number and can stop what you did all during the regular season and up to that point in the tourney, you better have an answer or you will lose.

WLU needs to decide if they are happy being a regular E8 partisipant who hopes they get on a roll OR that can avoid the most dominent team until the NC game, or are they going to adapt.

[Columbuseer]

FYI
I found these highlights of Viktor Kovacevic'.
He has good back to the basket moves in the low post, which one would probably expect in a 6-8 player.
However, he is very comfortable in the open court and can make rim runs off of spin moves at speed in the open court.
Great mechanics on his shot, as he hit nearly 50% from three.
Here are his highlights (#10) from mid-season 2021.

Very unusual to see complete skill set and understanding of the game in a 6-8 guy in D2. I don't think we have had a player like that at West Liberty before.
Hopefully, we can entice similar players in the future from Serbia to play for West Liberty.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qoAW1C6zzHs

In addition, Truman State was a talented, tall team that was expected to make a deep Elite 8 run,, but got upset by Flagler in first Elite 8 game. Viktor scored 34 points against them and defended their talented bigs in the low post quite well. Quincy lost in OT.

[boatcapt]

FYI
I found these highlights of Viktor Kovacevic'.
He has good back to the basket moves in the low post, which one would probably expect in a 6-8 player.
However, he is very comfortable in the open court and can make rim runs off of spin moves at speed in the open court.
Great mechanics on his shot, as he hit nearly 50% from three.
Here are his highlights (#10) from mid-season 2021.

Very unusual to see complete skill set and understanding of the game in a 6-8 guy in D2. I don't think we have had a player like that at West Liberty before.
Hopefully, we can entice similar players in the future from Serbia to play for West Liberty.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qoAW1C6zzHs

In addition, Truman State was a talented, tall team that was expected to make a deep Elite 8 run,, but got upset by Flagler in first Elite 8 game. Viktor scored 34 points against them and defended their talented bigs in the low post quite well. Quincy lost in OT.

It will depend on how they use him...Will he be used 100% as a "tall guard" working exclusively to get a 3 try or drive to the hole or will WLU take full advantage of his skill set by incorporating a few "back to the basket" inside sets?

[Columbuseer]

It will depend on how they use him...Will he be used 100% as a "tall guard" working exclusively to get a 3 try or drive to the hole or will WLU take full advantage of his skill set by incorporating a few "back to the basket" inside sets?

My guess is that they will make no changes to their offense, which allows back to basket moves as long as the ball does not stick. For example, Butler has great footwork with back to basket with a great jump hook and is also an outside threat and rim run threat. But it is in the context of the 5 out motion offense. Viktor has similar skill set but is bigger. He may command a double team when he goes inside.

My guess is that the wlu offense was a major factor in wlu landing him. Anxious to see how quickly he adjusts. High basketball IQ and comp science major so he will understand its advantages and likely adapt very quickly.

[boatcapt]

My guess is that they will make no changes to their offense, which allows back to basket moves as long as the ball does not stick. For example, Butler has great footwork with back to basket with a great jump hook and is also an outside threat and rim run threat. But it is in the context of the 5 out motion offense. Viktor has similar skill set but is bigger. He may command a double team when he goes inside.

My guess is that the wlu offense was a major factor in wlu landing him. Anxious to see how quickly he adjusts. High basketball IQ and comp science major so he will understand its advantages and likely adapt very quickly.

If he is just treated like a tall guard, we will have the same problems we have had for the last 17 years. VERY good regular season team that wins MEC Conf/Tourney crown most years...Good NCAA tourney team that most years will be in/win a regional crown but will hit a wall in the E8.

When you are operating a particular "style" at such a high efficiency level like WLU is, there is not much room for improvement. I have a tractor. It is a very nice tractor and I've done quite a bit to it to make it the best tractor it can be. But it is never going to be capable of working a 1000 acre farm. I love that tractor and get everything out of it that I can, but it has it's limitations and I need to accept that I can't work a 1000 acre farm with it. If I ever want to buy that 1000 acre farm, I'm going to need to buy a bigger tractor even though I might not love it as much as my current MF 135.

[Columbuseer]

Regardless of style, many teams find it hard to advance in the Elite 8 on a regular basis. In support of this assertion, the statistics below reveal how few teams reach the Elite 8 more than once, much less going to the Final Four. Looking at last 10 years of Elite 8, there are 80 slots for teams (10 years x 8 teams),
1. Only 13 teams made the Elite 8 more than once. West Liberty is #1 with 6 appearances. For 45 teams it was their only appearance during the decade.
2. Of the 40 slots in the Final Four, only 4 teams have reached it more than once. West Liberty is tied for first (with now D1 Bellarmine) with 4 appearance. So WLU made the Final Four 60% of the time.
3. Of the 20 slots in the Finals, only one team has reached it more than once - NWMSU with 3 appearances (and 3 victories). West Liberty is in a 17-way tie for second with one appearance LOL.

The above stats indicate how hard it is to reach the Elite 8, regardless of style.

IMHO, regardless of style, a team needs:
1. At least 3 players who are high D1-level players, for it is possible that you will encounter a team who has such players as part of a once in a lifetime team who is making their first and likely last appearance in the Elite 8. When you have both teams with excellent coaches and players who are good fits for their respective styles, there is no secret "auxiliary style" that will magically ensure a victory. Obviously, NWMSU does not need an auxiliary style, as their points per possession is comparable to WLU, which is much higher than other styles.
2. High level of execution in their chosen style in all 3 Elite 8 games.
3. Players who are an excellent fit for their chosen style.
4. Favorable matchups. One team may have one player who is a matchup nightmare. The seeding may place that team against a better matchup, that eliminates them.
5. Opponent has a a uncharacteristically poor game.

IMHO NWMSU has put together incredibly talented players who execute their style to perfection, with uncharacteristically high discipline. They get high marks on items 1, 2, and 3 above.

One should not discount the difficulty in winning the regional. Seeding is done regionally, not nationally. IUP, Mercyhurst, VA State, Winston Salem State, Fairmont and Charleston are very strong teams nationally. In fact, Mercyhurst came the closest to defeating NWMSU two years ago in the Elite 8.

[boatcapt]

Regardless of style, many teams find it hard to advance in the Elite 8 on a regular basis. In support of this assertion, the statistics below reveal how few teams reach the Elite 8 more than once, much less going to the Final Four. Looking at last 10 years of Elite 8, there are 80 slots for teams (10 years x 8 teams),
1. Only 13 teams made the Elite 8 more than once. West Liberty is #1 with 6 appearances. For 45 teams it was their only appearance during the decade.
2. Of the 40 slots in the Final Four, only 4 teams have reached it more than once. West Liberty is tied for first (with now D1 Bellarmine) with 4 appearance. So WLU made the Final Four 60% of the time.
3. Of the 20 slots in the Finals, only one team has reached it more than once - NWMSU with 3 appearances (and 3 victories). West Liberty is in a 17-way tie for second with one appearance LOL.

The above stats indicate how hard it is to reach the Elite 8, regardless of style.

IMHO, regardless of style, a team needs:
1. At least 3 players who are high D1-level players, for it is possible that you will encounter a team who has such players as part of a once in a lifetime team who is making their first and likely last appearance in the Elite 8. When you have both teams with excellent coaches and players who are good fits for their respective styles, there is no secret "auxiliary style" that will magically ensure a victory. Obviously, NWMSU does not need an auxiliary style, as their points per possession is comparable to WLU, which is much higher than other styles.
2. High level of execution in their chosen style in all 3 Elite 8 games.
3. Players who are an excellent fit for their chosen style.
4. Favorable matchups. One team may have one player who is a matchup nightmare. The seeding may place that team against a better matchup, that eliminates them.
5. Opponent has a a uncharacteristically poor game.

IMHO NWMSU has put together incredibly talented players who execute their style to perfection, with uncharacteristically high discipline. They get high marks on items 1, 2, and 3 above.

One should not discount the difficulty in winning the regional. Seeding is done regionally, not nationally. IUP, Mercyhurst, VA State, Winston Salem State, Fairmont and Charleston are very strong teams nationally. In fact, Mercyhurst came the closest to defeating NWMSU two years ago in the Elite 8.

The stats about WLU's E8+ "success"...but lack of a NC...proves my point. They are the most successful team in DII to NOT win a NC...That is NOT what I want to be known for.

You point out NWMSU being successful with their chosen "style" playing it at a very efficient level and turning that into THREE NC's. WLU plays their chosen "style" at an equally efficient level and has turned it into ZERO NC's. IMHO, there is very little increased efficiency that can be rung out of our current style. So we have three options:

1. HOPE we go on a heater at the right time.
2. HOPE we don't meet the top seeded team in the E8 AND hope another team can nock them out before we meet them.
3. Try and increase the efficiency of our style from 95 to 100, either by practicing harder OR bring in 3 high D1-level players, and HOPE that is enough.

As one of my coaches said back in the day, HOPE is for losers who failed to prepare to win.

[Columbuseer]

The stats about WLU's E8+ "success"...but lack of a NC...proves my point. They are the most successful team in DII to NOT win a NC...That is NOT what I want to be known for.

You point out NWMSU being successful with their chosen "style" playing it at a very efficient level and turning that into THREE NC's. WLU plays their chosen "style" at an equally efficient level and has turned it into ZERO NC's. IMHO, there is very little increased efficiency that can be rung out of our current style. So we have three options:

1. HOPE we go on a heater at the right time.
2. HOPE we don't meet the top seeded team in the E8 AND hope another team can nock them out before we meet them.
3. Try and increase the efficiency of our style from 95 to 100, either by practicing harder OR bring in 3 high D1-level players, and HOPE that is enough.

As one of my coaches said back in the day, HOPE is for losers who failed to prepare to win.

You will have to be patient with me, because I am a dummy.

I thought your proposition was: If a team wins a national championship, then a team has an auxiliary style.
In deductive reasoning form of if P then Q, P= team wins national championship and Q = Team has an auxiliary style

NWMSU won a national championship (P)
therefore, if the proposition is valid, then Q must be true (NWMSU had an auxiliary style).
However, NWMSU does NOT run an auxiliary style - Q is false.

Therefore the proposition cannot be true (that an auxiliary style is needed to win a national championship). So NWMSU does not prove your point.

If you have evidence that NWMSU runs an auxiliary style, please let me know.

Coach Howlett was quoted in interview before the game that NWMSU was going to run their stuff and they don't change for anyone; similarly WLU does not change what they do.

I think NWMSU illustrates that you need at least 3 D1 players on your team, in addition to a great coach and a high PPP style; With Will hurt, WLU only had two d1 level players (however, there are younger players who might be playing at that level in a year or two).

Watch the finals post game interview with the West Texas Coach, "That [NWMSU] was NOT a D2 team we played today".


However, I think it should be noted that each game is an independent event.
It is like flipping a coin. If it comes up tails twice in a row, what are the odds of it coming up tails on the third flip? It is a probability of 0.5 They are independent events, just like each national championship game.

I understand that folks want WLU to win it all (no more so than the coaches and players).
We will have improved chances of winning a national championship when we have 3 D1 level players and execute our style at a level of precision equal to NWMSU.

[boatcapt]

You will have to be patient with me, because I am a dummy.

I thought your proposition was: If a team wins a national championship, then a team has an auxiliary style.
In deductive reasoning form of if P then Q, P= team wins national championship and Q = Team has an auxiliary style

NWMSU won a national championship (P)
therefore, if the proposition is valid, then Q must be true (NWMSU had an auxiliary style).
However, NWMSU does NOT run an auxiliary style - Q is false.

Therefore the proposition cannot be true (that an auxiliary style is needed to win a national championship). So NWMSU does not prove your point.

If you have evidence that NWMSU runs an auxiliary style, please let me know.

Coach Howlett was quoted in interview before the game that NWMSU was going to run their stuff and they don't change for anyone; similarly WLU does not change what they do.

I think NWMSU illustrates that you need at least 3 D1 players on your team, in addition to a great coach and a high PPP style; With Will hurt, WLU only had two d1 level players (however, there are younger players who might be playing at that level in a year or two).

Watch the finals post game interview with the West Texas Coach, "That [NWMSU] was NOT a D2 team we played today".


However, I think it should be noted that each game is an independent event.
It is like flipping a coin. If it comes up tails twice in a row, what are the odds of it coming up tails on the third flip? It is a probability of 0.5 They are independent events, just like each national championship game.

I understand that folks want WLU to win it all (no more so than the coaches and players).
We will have improved chances of winning a national championship when we have 3 D1 level players and execute our style at a level of precision equal to NWMSU.

No...My point is that:

1. Not every style of play, even when run to the N'th degree of efficiency, is capable of winning championships,
2. Every system has its weaknesses,
3. When faced with 1 and opponents who increasingly can exploit 2, a team can either:
a. Accept the limitation of the style and plow ahead (Note: This limitation can be VERY high as in the case of WLU) hoping that a set of circumstances happen that lead to a NC, or,
b. Realize there is a need to adapt and change to "get over the hump" by,
i. Changing styles completely to one that may be more successful, OR,
ii. Adding a secondary "style" in an effort to get over the few humps you might have during a season and in the NCAA Tourney.

WLU has always had high IQ players but not necessarily the most physically capable. They operated and THRIVED operating in a system that emphasized unselfish play, ball movement, pressure, spot-up 3 point shooting and STAMINA! Over the last several years, WLU has started getting higher caliber athletes that would probably be capable of operating a number of styles at a very efficient manner without sacrifising much if any efficiency in its primary style.

[Columbuseer]

FYI
WLU Aiden Satterfield has been working out against TBT pro team "Herd That", comprised of ex-Marshall stars and is shown hitting a three.
Obviously, he understands that the greatest improvement comes when you play against others that are better than you. Impressive! He has a very bright future at wlu!

https://twitter.com/aidensatt1/statu...673379847?s=20

[Columbuseer]

No...My point is that:

1. Not every style of play, even when run to the N'th degree of efficiency, is capable of winning championships,
2. Every system has its weaknesses,
3. When faced with 1 and opponents who increasingly can exploit 2, a team can either:
a. Accept the limitation of the style and plow ahead (Note: This limitation can be VERY high as in the case of WLU) hoping that a set of circumstances happen that lead to a NC, or,
b. Realize there is a need to adapt and change to "get over the hump" by,
i. Changing styles completely to one that may be more successful, OR,
ii. Adding a secondary "style" in an effort to get over the few humps you might have during a season and in the NCAA Tourney.

WLU has always had high IQ players but not necessarily the most physically capable. They operated and THRIVED operating in a system that emphasized unselfish play, ball movement, pressure, spot-up 3 point shooting and STAMINA! Over the last several years, WLU has started getting higher caliber athletes that would probably be capable of operating a number of styles at a very efficient manner without sacrifising much if any efficiency in its primary style.

From a dummy's perspective, I would suggest that there are other viable alternatives , such as:
1. continually increase the level of talent as well as depth of talent on roster
2. Improve team defense??
3.improve individual defense
4. Improve execution of wlu style through faster ball movement,.

Probably there are many other alternatives. If not considered, one can fall into the "false dilemma" fallacy.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/False_dilemma


Here is excerpt from wiki:

A false dilemma, also referred to as false dichotomy, is an informal fallacy based on a premise that erroneously limits what options are available.

.....
Part of understanding fallacies involves going beyond logic to empirical psychology in order to explain why there is a tendency to commit or fall for the fallacy in question.^[9][1] In the case of the false dilemma, the tendency to simplify reality by ordering it through either-or-statements may play an important role. This tendency is to some extent built into our language, which is full of pairs of opposites.^[5] This type of simplification is sometimes necessary to make decisions when there is not enough time to get a more detailed perspective.

In order to avoid false dilemmas, the agent should become aware of additional options besides the prearranged alternatives. Critical thinking and creativity may be necessary to see through the false dichotomy and to discover new alternatives.^[1]

[boatcapt]

From a dummy's perspective, I would suggest that there are other viable alternatives , such as:
1. continually increase the level of talent as well as depth of talent on roster
2. Improve team defense??
3.improve individual defense
4. Improve execution of wlu style through faster ball movement,.

Probably there are many other alternatives. If not considered, one can fall into the "false dilemma" fallacy.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/False_dilemma


Here is excerpt from wiki:

A false dilemma, also referred to as false dichotomy, is an informal fallacy based on a premise that erroneously limits what options are available.

.....
Part of understanding fallacies involves going beyond logic to empirical psychology in order to explain why there is a tendency to commit or fall for the fallacy in question.^[9][1] In the case of the false dilemma, the tendency to simplify reality by ordering it through either-or-statements may play an important role. This tendency is to some extent built into our language, which is full of pairs of opposites.^[5] This type of simplification is sometimes necessary to make decisions when there is not enough time to get a more detailed perspective.

In order to avoid false dilemmas, the agent should become aware of additional options besides the prearranged alternatives. Critical thinking and creativity may be necessary to see through the false dichotomy and to discover new alternatives.^[1]

You posit that WLU's lack of ultimate success in the NCAA Tourney can be overcome by:

1. Continued increase in talent level,
2. Improved team defense,
3. Improved individual defense,
4. Improved execution of the WLU style

I would counter that WLU, particularly with regard to the 2, 3 and 4, is already far into an area of diminishing returns. As you have amply demonstrated WLU's offensive and defensive styles is already operating at an incredibly high level of efficiency and productivity. The law of diminishing returns amply points out that the amount of effort necessary for WLU to improve on their current level of effectiveness will be exponentially greater than the level necessary to get to this point. While this might be possible given unlimited practice time, I would note that the NCAA does not provide WLU with unlimited practice time.

Concerning WLU continuing to increase its talent level, I would again point out diminishing returns as a limiting factor. Ben has done an outstanding job of improving the overall talent over the last several years. By all accounts I have heard, he is a tireless recruiter who puts in long hours identifying players, and actively recruiting them. But again, there are only so many hours in the day and so many players he can scout and recruit. I would also note that he is limited by a couple of other factors that being number of scholarships and competition from other coaches