West Liberty Hilltopper Basketball

[boatcapt]

i am sure you are familiar with Excel, given your comfort with stats. just generate stats cumulatively one game at a time. Hinds was best 3 pt shooter at over 50% early in season, but tailed off later in season to a final 34.9%, which is still very good.
60% was a preseason workout for Hinds - very rare to see for d2 big.

You may be pleasantly surprised this upcoming season with Woodward. His ceiling is extremely high.
Mckinney was 29% at Seton Hill when he came to hilltop. Jumped to over 40% in one year.

Hind's is actually the tale of three seasons...He started out the year (5 games) going 1 for 3 (.333) from 3 then 11 for 17 (.647) over the next 8 games then closed out the season 26 of 89 (.179) over the last 13 games. So which of the three is he...The guy that started the year 1/3, the middle guy who shot .647 or the guy who closed out the bulk of his season shooting .179 from three? Worth noting that he really ramped up his three point attempts over the latter half of the season but that came at a HUGE blow to his success rate. IF Hind's 3 point shooting prowess is more to what we say over the last half of the season as opposed to the first half, he will be portal bate and no amount of basketball IQ will be enough to keep him on the Hilltop.

I stand by my prediction with Woodard. Two things you MUST do at WLU to stay at WLU...take 3 point shots and MAKE 3 point shots...There aren't enough rebounds, put backs, tough defense or high basketball IQ to make up for 0 for 17 from 3. Anything less than 75 attempts and 25 makes from 3 is unacceptable and he will probably be in the portal next season.

[Columbuseer]

...
IF Hind's 3 point shooting prowess is more to what we say over the last half of the season as opposed to the first half, he will be portal bate and no amount of basketball IQ will be enough to keep him on the Hilltop.
...

This is final year of eligibility for hinds, so I seriously doubt he is portal bait. Sometimes Hinds slightly rushed his shot without that wide open look, which affected his %. He has very good mechanics.

Woodward was a good shooter in hs, so i suspect it is a shooting mechanics issue. He will figure it out with help from coaches. They found a hitch in mckinneys shot, which enabled him to go from 29% to 40% from three.

Assuming good mechanics, a critical factor affecting 3 pt % is opponent distance from shooter should be at least 6 feet.

[boatcapt]

This is final year of eligibility for hinds, so I seriously doubt he is portal bait. Sometimes Hinds slightly rushed his shot without that wide open look, which affected his %. He has very good mechanics.

Woodward was a good shooter in hs, so i suspect it is a shooting mechanics issue. He will figure it out with help from coaches. They found a hitch in mckinneys shot, which enabled him to go from 29% to 40% from three.

Assuming good mechanics, a critical factor affecting 3 pt % is opponent distance from shooter should be at least 6 feet.

I don't know the answer to this, but isn't this the last COVID "extra" year for players? If it is, Hinds would have another year after this season even though he has played 4 years.

Hinds is interesting. Looking at his Community College and UPike states paints a picture of a VERY streaky 3 point shooter. Freshman year at Pike he shot .167 (2/12 over 10 games played). In his season at Olney Central CC, he shot .345 from three which sounds a lot like last season at WLU...But like at WLU, that included nine games were he shot ZERO from 3 and five games were he shot 60% plus. Coupled with his performance last season at WLU, he paints the very picture of a streaky 3 point shooter.

As for Woodard, he will have the opportunity to demonstrate his HS 3 point shooting prowess this coming season. Couldn't find his stats at SPIRE (truth be told, I dodn't look really hard) but the stats I could find from a 5 game stretch on the Scotland U16 team showed he shot 2 for 11 (.182) from 3. I can't imagine he would go ZERO on the season this year from 3 point range and the coaches may be able to fix him...at least to a point. Is that point .200 or .400 or somewhere in the middle is the question.

Concerning WLU coaches "fixing" McKinney's 3 point shooting, we saw him improve to a +.400 3 point shooter immediately. Hinds and Woodard have already had one season of WLU coaches "fixing" their 3 point shooting. Thus far, it hasn't seemed to work for either "big"...Hinds was a streaky as he ever was and Woodard certainly didn't improve on his previous shooting, what ever it was. Could a switch go off for either (or both) players this season? Sure it could happen and I would imagine that coaches and players are working hard to make it happen. But I wouldn't put any money on it. And IF both or either don't improve, they won't be back on the Hilltop NEXT year (Even if Hinds has another year of eligibility). As I said previously, there are not enough outstanding level stats to counteract poor (or streaky) 3 point shooting at WLU. A player could average 30 PPG by averaging 10 for 15 from inside and 10 for 10 from the FT line every game and it would not be enough to offset anything less than .300 3 point shooting.

[Columbuseer]

Hinds never redahirted. His 1st year was 2019. 2023 is his 5th playing year. Out of eligibilty after 2023.
most shooters go thru ups and downs. 35% is considered a good 3 pt shooter and he was 34.9%.
imho he could go higher if he foregoes shooting until he has wide open looks like wlu had against new haven.

I have confidence Woodward will improve his shooting from last year. He wants to improve his 3 pt shooting and is a very hard worker.
I foresee a lot of minutes for him regardless because he makes his teammates better with all his other skills. We were starting to see glimpses late in the season of his potential.

[boatcapt]

Hinds never redahirted. His 1st year was 2019. 2023 is his 5th playing year. Out of eligibilty after 2023.
most shooters go thru ups and downs. 35% is considered a good 3 pt shooter and he was 34.9%.
imho he could go higher if he foregoes shooting until he has wide open looks like wlu had against new haven.

I have confidence Woodward will improve his shooting from last year. He wants to improve his 3 pt shooting and is a very hard worker.
I foresee a lot of minutes for him regardless because he makes his teammates better with all his other skills. We were starting to see glimpses late in the season of his potential.

Well every fans hopes spring before the season. Both Hinds and Woodward will get plenty of chances to prove me wrong (although I HOPE proving ME wrong is not even a consideration!). And as a WLU fan, I hope both do prove me wrong. Nothing would make me happier that having Hinds and Woodward become this seasons facimily of Yoakim and Butler.

Some people have DMed me asking why I "hate" WLU. To be clear...I don't hate them at all! It's just that the goal for WLU every year should be to win the NC.so anything less than that is a fail. I don't care how many regional crowns we win or how many MEC "chips" we get or how many categories we lead...no NC, the season is somewhat of a fail. Seems to me the last 5 percent of almost anything requires a tremendous effort and sometimes, you have to abandon dead ends that can only get you to the mountain (and never over it). Just my opinion, but that's how I feel with WLU...we have a style that is VERY good at getting us to the mountain and ALMOST over it...but we never seem to get over. MAYBE we need to go back to Basecamp at the foot of the mountain, regroup and reassess, and pack supplies that will get us over the hump.

Sorry for the mountain climbing references but I just watched a show about the 10 Mountain Division!!

[Columbuseer]

Some people have DMed me asking why I "hate" WLU. To be clear...I don't hate them at all! It's just that the goal for WLU every year should be to win the NC.so anything less than that is a fail. I don't care how many regional crowns we win or how many MEC "chips" we get or how many categories we lead...no NC, the season is somewhat of a fail.

Why is not winning the NC a failure?

Imho we should not hold an athletic team to a standard higher than we hold ourselves.

If we are not CEO of our company, are we a failure?
If we do not graduate 1st in our class, are we a failure?
If we do not win the national spelling bee, are we a failure?

If we are satisfied with our children going to school 180 days while children in Japan go 240 days a year and we are 35th in math and 17th in science (as of 2015), are we failures as parents and teachers? Apparently we are OK with a school year that assumes we are still living in an agrarian society where kids need to help on the farm in the summer.

Enough examples... the point should be obvious.

The assertion that the wlu style cannot win a national title is now quite invalid, given that both Nova se and wlu were in the finals and play the same style. Howlett and Crutchfield have elite winning %.

Like wlu, St. Crutch has reloaded at Nova se, with transfers from 2 elite 8 teams, 2 d1 transfers, including one who began at wvu, player of the year in wv and other high end freshmen from elite programs. Elite players want to play this style. We all know that regardless of style, one has to have elite players that fit the style to make a deep run.

But we have to respect that other teams have great athletes too.

All we can ask is that everyone does their best- in our job, in the classroom, in the family, and on the basketball court.

[IUP24]

Why is not winning the NC a failure?

Imho we should not hold an athletic team to a standard higher than we hold ourselves.

If we are not CEO of our company, are we a failure?
If we do not graduate 1st in our class, are we a failure?
If we do not win the national spelling bee, are we a failure?

If we are satisfied with our children going to school 180 days while children in Japan go 240 days a year and we are 35th in math and 17th in science (as of 2015), are we failures as parents and teachers? Apparently we are OK with a school year that assumes we are still living in an agrarian society where kids need to help on the farm in the summer.

Enough examples... the point should be obvious.

The assertion that the wlu style cannot win a national title is now quite invalid, given that both Nova se and wlu were in the finals and play the same style. Howlett and Crutchfield have elite winning %.

Like wlu, St. Crutch has reloaded at Nova se, with transfers from 2 elite 8 teams, 2 d1 transfers, including one who began at wvu, player of the year in wv and other high end freshmen from elite programs. Elite players want to play this style. We all know that regardless of style, one has to have elite players that fit the style to make a deep run.

But we have to respect that other teams have great athletes too.

All we can ask is that everyone does their best- in our job, in the classroom, in the family, and on the basketball court.

At any level in any sport, it's extremely hard to win the last game of the season. There's a lot of things that have to go right.

Playing well at the right time... People unexpectedly playing above their talent level in a given moment... People staying healthy... People just not going into some type of drought at a terrible time (in any sport)... External factors off the field, court, ice, etc., not impacting the team or individuals... Good or favorable matchups along the way... Opponents having the issues any other team hopes to avoid (injuries, off nights, external factors, etc.)... Players avoiding illness which could impact performance, availability, or team health... Travel issues that impact things (sometimes not sleeping in your own bed hurts, but in contrast sometimes being away from home helps just as much to eliminate distractions)... Getting some favorable luck along the way (Virginia won their national championship with a ton of that a few years ago)... Being the beneficiary of some favorable calls at critical moments (think back to that Virginia team)...

I could go on.

It's really hard to do it in a tournament setting. Especially in a one-game format. There's no predictability. Has nothing to do with culture. Has nothing to do with system. Rarely ever does the best team win. It happens from time to time, but it normally doesn't. Most teams who are expected to win it all, in any sport and at any level, don't. Only one team ends the year happy.

I've reached the point where I've more or less accepted that I don't believe that IUP will ever actually win the last game of the season. Joe is in the final stretch of his career, and in my opinion, his car is slowing doing on the highway. For as good as both IUP and West Liberty have been both regionally, and in the national landscape, neither ever seems to be "the story" when the water gets deep. But they always seem to run into the team that is. Kevin Capers had a Jordan-like "Flu Game" in the 2015 National Championship. West Lib ran into the undefeated team this year. It's just really hard to be "that team." Even if you don't have "the story" on your team, so much just has to go right.

I have more or less just recognized that I am fortunate to watch and enjoy IUP basketball. And I don't think that's a loser-take. It's a niche follow that keeps me connected to my alma mater. It gives me something to enjoy in the winter.

As I've gotten a little older, I've learned that there's more to watching/following sports than simply winning every game and every championship. You have to enjoy it for what it is. Maybe neither IUP or West Liberty ever wins the last game, but I would argue that many fans of many programs would kill to have what we do. There are plenty of teams (in plenty of sports) who have their one great year where they go on a run and do it. Then you never hear from them again. It would be cool to have the banner hanging, or the shirt in the closet, but I don't think I would trade every year of being nationally competitive and in the conversation for one great year never to be heard from again. Often times, teams win, but they aren't able to stay nationally competitive. I'm not sure that would be fun.

I think we're fortunate for what we get to watch annually. But I still have that bottle of champagne in the back of the fridge... Just in case...

[Ship69]

At any level in any sport, it's extremely hard to win the last game of the season. There's a lot of things that have to go right.

Playing well at the right time... People unexpectedly playing above their talent level in a given moment... People staying healthy... People just not going into some type of drought at a terrible time (in any sport)... External factors off the field, court, ice, etc., not impacting the team or individuals... Good or favorable matchups along the way... Opponents having the issues any other team hopes to avoid (injuries, off nights, external factors, etc.)... Players avoiding illness which could impact performance, availability, or team health... Travel issues that impact things (sometimes not sleeping in your own bed hurts, but in contrast sometimes being away from home helps just as much to eliminate distractions)... Getting some favorable luck along the way (Virginia won their national championship with a ton of that a few years ago)... Being the beneficiary of some favorable calls at critical moments (think back to that Virginia team)...

I could go on.

It's really hard to do it in a tournament setting. Especially in a one-game format. There's no predictability. Has nothing to do with culture. Has nothing to do with system. Rarely ever does the best team win. It happens from time to time, but it normally doesn't. Most teams who are expected to win it all, in any sport and at any level, don't. Only one team ends the year happy.

I've reached the point where I've more or less accepted that I don't believe that IUP will ever actually win the last game of the season. Joe is in the final stretch of his career, and in my opinion, his car is slowing doing on the highway. For as good as both IUP and West Liberty have been both regionally, and in the national landscape, neither ever seems to be "the story" when the water gets deep. But they always seem to run into the team that is. Kevin Capers had a Jordan-like "Flu Game" in the 2015 National Championship. West Lib ran into the undefeated team this year. It's just really hard to be "that team." Even if you don't have "the story" on your team, so much just has to go right.

I have more or less just recognized that I am fortunate to watch and enjoy IUP basketball. And I don't think that's a loser-take. It's a niche follow that keeps me connected to my alma mater. It gives me something to enjoy in the winter.

As I've gotten a little older, I've learned that there's more to watching/following sports than simply winning every game and every championship. You have to enjoy it for what it is. Maybe neither IUP or West Liberty ever wins the last game, but I would argue that many fans of many programs would kill to have what we do. There are plenty of teams (in plenty of sports) who have their one great year where they go on a run and do it. Then you never hear from them again. It would be cool to have the banner hanging, or the shirt in the closet, but I don't think I would trade every year of being nationally competitive and in the conversation for one great year never to be heard from again. Often times, teams win, but they aren't able to stay nationally competitive. I'm not sure that would be fun.

I think we're fortunate for what we get to watch annually. But I still have that bottle of champagne in the back of the fridge... Just in case...

That's a good take on things, and you get that way as you get older. There's nothing like being a Chicago Cubs fan (as I have been since I was a kid in the '50s) to give you a perspective on the whole win-lose thing. I finally did get to see the Cubs win it all and Northwestern get to a Rose Bowl (something they'll likely never have a shot at doing again) in my lifetime — two things I thought I'd never see. Baseball is getting ridiculous with all the teams in the playoffs now. Play 162 games to prove you're the best team and then get knocked out over a weekend by a team that might have finished 15 games behind you during the season. I often wonder why these guys who are always complaining "everybody gets a trophy" in youth leagues don't seem to have much to say about these pro playoff formats.

I've really appreciated these last few years of Ship basketball under Chris Fite because it's just something we haven't had given our last than mediocre overall history of basketball. If Kutztown getting competitive in football has been the PSAC story in that sport for the past few years, I'd say the story in basketball has been the development of Ship as a consistent Eastern Division power and NCAA tourney contender. Years ago I used to have a beer once in a while with Rodger Goodling, the long-time Shippensburg coach. Rodger was a good guy who generally recruited good kids who graduated, and I think his players enjoyed playing for him. But they lost more than they won and generally didn't get it done on the court. Fite has many of Goodling's good characteristics and has coupled it with winning games. That has been extremely satisfying.

Given the way college sports are trending with transfers and (mostly at the higher levels) NIL, I fear that there will increasingly be haves and have-nots. The shaky situation of some colleges and the demographics in our area won't help, either. Part of the charm in the PSAC over the years is that it's been a fairly balanced league. In the East, Ship, Millersville, Bloomsburg, and East Stroud have all had their moments in football. Will they get some of that mojo back? Hard to say at this point. Basketball used to be very well balanced, but IUP seems to have put some distance between them and the league over the past decade, and transfers make it hard for the bottom teams to build back up. If they get a freshman star, he's often gone the next year. You're right when you say the fans of many programs would kill to have what you do. Imagine following Lock Haven football for the past 40 years.

I'll take what I can get. It's certainly going to be interesting to see how it all plays out.

[Columbuseer]

At any level in any sport, it's extremely hard to win the last game of the season. There's a lot of things that have to go right.

Playing well at the right time... People unexpectedly playing above their talent level in a given moment... People staying healthy... People just not going into some type of drought at a terrible time (in any sport)... External factors off the field, court, ice, etc., not impacting the team or individuals... Good or favorable matchups along the way... Opponents having the issues any other team hopes to avoid (injuries, off nights, external factors, etc.)... Players avoiding illness which could impact performance, availability, or team health... Travel issues that impact things (sometimes not sleeping in your own bed hurts, but in contrast sometimes being away from home helps just as much to eliminate distractions)... Getting some favorable luck along the way (Virginia won their national championship with a ton of that a few years ago)... Being the beneficiary of some favorable calls at critical moments (think back to that Virginia team)...

I could go on.

It's really hard to do it in a tournament setting. Especially in a one-game format. There's no predictability. Has nothing to do with culture. Has nothing to do with system. Rarely ever does the best team win. It happens from time to time, but it normally doesn't. Most teams who are expected to win it all, in any sport and at any level, don't. Only one team ends the year happy.

I've reached the point where I've more or less accepted that I don't believe that IUP will ever actually win the last game of the season. Joe is in the final stretch of his career, and in my opinion, his car is slowing doing on the highway. For as good as both IUP and West Liberty have been both regionally, and in the national landscape, neither ever seems to be "the story" when the water gets deep. But they always seem to run into the team that is. Kevin Capers had a Jordan-like "Flu Game" in the 2015 National Championship. West Lib ran into the undefeated team this year. It's just really hard to be "that team." Even if you don't have "the story" on your team, so much just has to go right.

I have more or less just recognized that I am fortunate to watch and enjoy IUP basketball. And I don't think that's a loser-take. It's a niche follow that keeps me connected to my alma mater. It gives me something to enjoy in the winter.

As I've gotten a little older, I've learned that there's more to watching/following sports than simply winning every game and every championship. You have to enjoy it for what it is. Maybe neither IUP or West Liberty ever wins the last game, but I would argue that many fans of many programs would kill to have what we do. There are plenty of teams (in plenty of sports) who have their one great year where they go on a run and do it. Then you never hear from them again. It would be cool to have the banner hanging, or the shirt in the closet, but I don't think I would trade every year of being nationally competitive and in the conversation for one great year never to be heard from again. Often times, teams win, but they aren't able to stay nationally competitive. I'm not sure that would be fun.

I think we're fortunate for what we get to watch annually. But I still have that bottle of champagne in the back of the fridge... Just in case...

Excellent points highlighting some of the factors that are not totally within a team's control.

[Columbuseer]

Don't forget to note: Salem has made an agreement with the MEC to basically adopt AB's entire schedule. So that means that WLU now has a home-and-home with Salem in the weeks where AB was formerly slotted.

Salem was an obvious choice from a geographical perspective. I hope that they are not carrying much debt, for their enrollment profile is much like AB.

698 undergrad (fall 2021)
276 Athletes(2022)
39% athletes getting avg of approx. $6k each in aid
30% of all undergrads graduating within 6 yrs.

imho they made a smart move in no football and emphasizing lower expense sports. Imho fb is a financial albatross at these enrollment levels. Median d2 program loses over a million a year.

[Columbuseer]

Fyi on a slow news day
2023 Roster up, but no bios yet available. Player number preceded by last year's 3 pt % and assist to turnover ratio except for incoming freshmen.
35% is very good and 40% is elite from three pt range.
I expect assist to turnover ratio to improve for transfers because they won't need to carry the wlu team. For younger players, it should improve due to experience and improved decision making.

3:1 assist to turnover ratio is considered elite according to coach in link below:
https://www.denverpost.com/2015/01/0...g%20the%20team.


Sort By: JerseyNamePositionClassHometownHeightWeight Go

44.8% 2.8 1

Christian Montague

G

6-1

180

Sr.

Dayton, Ohio / Chaminade-Julienne

Walsh

29.0% 0.94 2

Darren Fergus

G

6-1

150

Jr.

Garden City, N.Y. / Freeport

Molloy

0.0% 1.19 3

Finley Woodward

F

6-7

215

So.

Bristol, England / Spire Academy

34.3% 0.82 4

Lanyc Shuler

G

6-1

170

Jr.

Charleston, S.C. / Anson

Erskine

28.9% 2.29 5

John Korte

F

6-6

Gr.

Watertown, Mass. / Watertown

Wheeling

34.6% 3.33 10

Dante Spadafora

G

6-0

160

R-So.

Pittsburgh, Pa. / Our Lady of Sacred Heart

36.8% 2.0 11

Grant Barnhart

G

6-3

180

So.

St. Mary's, W.Va. / St. Mary's

35.7% 1.0 12

Ryan Reasbeck

G

6-3

So.

Washington, Pa. / Wheeling Central Catholic

Wheeling

13

Kyler Daugustino

G

6-1

Fr.

Albany, Ohio / Alexander

14

Garrison Kisner

F

6-7

Fr.

Morgantown, W.Va. / Morgantown

20

Terrance Pankey Jr.

G

6-2

Fr.

Youngstown, Ohio / Youngstown Ursuline

34.9% 1.15 22

Chaz Hinds

F

6-8

220

Sr.

Indianapolis, Ind. / Southport

Olney Central CC (Ill.)

23.8% 3.0 23

Alek West

G

6-4

200

Sr.

Sylvania, Ohio / Northview

Ohio Dominican

39.6% 1.65 24

Ben Sarson

F

6-6

205

Jr.

Pittsburgh, Pa. / Central Catholic

45.0% 1.91 25

Zach Rasile

G

6-1

175

Jr.

McDonald, Ohio / McDonald

[Columbuseer]

Less than 60 days to 1st game!
Fan scuttlebutt is telling me there is great competition, great athletic ability, and balance across the entire roster. The dropoff from 1 to 14 is not large, according to a non-coach's eye. Younger players are holding their own.

Of course this is only from a fan's viewpoint based on limited observation.

There are some very big shoes to fill, which will likely have to be done by committee.
There may be some rough patches early, but as these new players meld into a cohesive unit, Feb could be interesting.

[boatcapt]

Less than 60 days to 1st game!
Fan scuttlebutt is telling me there is great competition, great athletic ability, and balance across the entire roster. The dropoff from 1 to 14 is not large, according to a non-coach's eye. Younger players are holding their own.

Of course this is only from a fan's viewpoint based on limited observation.

There are some very big shoes to fill, which will likely have to be done by committee.
There may be some rough patches early, but as these new players meld into a cohesive unit, Feb could be interesting.

I seem to remember a similar "pre-season" report last year...and the year before that...and the year before that...!!!

With the addition-by-subtraction going on at the Hilltop, we should be loaded for bear this year so anything less than a National Championship is unacceptable!!!!

[Columbuseer]

Last year's team excelled in their unselfishness, even though they were also very talented. They really did not care who got the glory. Last year, 5 different players led the team in scoring for at least one game.

Imho, without naming names, some stars in past years called their own number a little too much.

Can this year's team match last year's unselfishness, when many new players are accustomed to being the main man? It is a big change for a player.

Fergus - All region player
Korte - all MEC
Shuler - leading scorer on team
Reasbeck - 3 point sniper
D Augustino - all state ohio, mvp of ohio all star game
Pankey - all state, ohio all star game

Will returning players carry on the unselfish play?

I think these factors will play a role in the trajectory of the team.

[boatcapt]

Last year's team excelled in their unselfishness, even though they were also very talented. They really did not care who got the glory. Last year, 5 different players led the team in scoring for at least one game.

Imho, without naming names, some stars in past years called their own number a little too much.

Can this year's team match last year's unselfishness, when many new players are accustomed to being the main man? It is a big change for a player.

Fergus - All region player
Korte - all MEC
Shuler - leading scorer on team
Reasbeck - 3 point sniper
D Augustino - all state ohio, mvp of ohio all star game
Pankey - all state, ohio all star game

Will returning players carry on the unselfish play?

I think these factors will play a role in the trajectory of the team.

Anytime you turnover a large part of your roster on a seemingly yearly basis, you run a certain risk that the players you bring in will not "buy into" or be capable of running the WLU System. While every transfer players reason for leaving their old school is different, the bottom line is that they quit that program. Now we bring in a signifigant number of them, put them in a high pressure system and expect signifigant production from each. Yes, it has worked so far but we are one "bad" transfer class from a significant problem. It's kind of like playing Russian Roulet...When you "win" you can trick yourself into believing that you have figured out how to spin the cylinder in just such a way to insure you will never chamber a round, but all it takes is that one time when fate shows you that no, you have NOT discovered the secret system, you were just lucky!