ATLANTIC REGION polls, rankings and blah, blah, blah

[IUPbigINDIANS]

IUP women about 3 years ago had athletes with good size and ability. Seemed like they could play a lineup of 5-10 / 6-0 across the positions. They are much smaller today and that seems to be an equalizer. That has dropped them off the top line. A player like Cardona sitting out a game creates a major hole and led to them dropping the SRU game. The D1 transfers are not having the impact that past transfers did.

IUP was due for a down year (especially with the abrupt coaching change) and I’m sure the rest of the conference is relieved about that. A couple legit transfers can bring them back to the top 5 in the Atlantic. Question is if the current coach can seal the deal especially with the interim tag and no guarantee he will be retained. I think the opening will be posted by April 1 based more on approach than by wins/losses.

Well, Tom's recruiting had taken a big dip in the past several years so that part isn't on Carey. The two mid-year transfers were necessary in my opinion because there was next to no depth beyond the starting group. Yes, they are considered 'D1' transfers but IUP could probably beat Robert Morris most years.

This is certainly a transition year because Tom's recruits were all kind of the same style player -- specifically recruited to play his slow-down style. There are a couple exceptions. So, when Carey wanted to toss that style out the window and play faster ... it's not easy to do.

To your point, they were going to have a down year of sorts whether Tom was here or not. Rajah Fink left for Cal before Tom even retired so perhaps she saw the writing on the wall. Or, she was tired of playing in a turtle-speed offense. Maybe both.

When they are full strength this year, they are a pretty decent team. Unfortunately, they had that 7-8 game stretch of Preston and Cardona seeming to rotate who was out. If they have both playing, they can at least hang in there with just about any team in the PSAC. Without one of them, everything changes in a hurry.

They are 14-5, which is pretty solid. They've just had a few nights (minus a player) that they've looked horrendous (UPJ, Edinboro, SRU).

If healthy the rest of the way -- and, if they can start making freaking layups -- they could have a nice little run (and possibly get an at-large bid). I'd like to see him make more in-game adjustments.

Lot of parity on the women's side. Every night is a battle. There aren't many 'gimme' games.

[IUP24]

IUP women about 3 years ago had athletes with good size and ability. Seemed like they could play a lineup of 5-10 / 6-0 across the positions. They are much smaller today and that seems to be an equalizer. That has dropped them off the top line. A player like Cardona sitting out a game creates a major hole and led to them dropping the SRU game. The D1 transfers are not having the impact that past transfers did.

IUP was due for a down year (especially with the abrupt coaching change) and I’m sure the rest of the conference is relieved about that. A couple legit transfers can bring them back to the top 5 in the Atlantic. Question is if the current coach can seal the deal especially with the interim tag and no guarantee he will be retained. I think the opening will be posted by April 1 based more on approach than by wins/losses.

As somebody who doesn't follow the women's side of things too much, what are the chances he's retained? That's a tough gig taking a job like that (and I know the reason he was looking for work) when you have no guarantees other than about 9 months. I think he's done an alright job considering the challenges of taking over a team very shortly before a season was to begin.

[IUPbigINDIANS]

As somebody who doesn't follow the women's side of things too much, what are the chances he's retained? That's a tough gig taking a job like that (and I know the reason he was looking for work) when you have no guarantees other than about 9 months. I think he's done an alright job considering the challenges of taking over a team very shortly before a season was to begin.

Hard to say. It likely depends what kind of impression he made behind the scenes this year.

They are definitely opening the position. He was told that when he accepted the interim position (and that he could apply for the full-time job at that point).

I do think they'll attract some good candidates -- likely some sitting PSAC coaches. IUP can pay pretty well, has a good following and great facilities.

[Inkblot]

I admit I've had second thoughts about putting Shippensburg #1... they're #1 in both metrics, but their best win is over West Chester.

[Ship69]

I admit I've had second thoughts about putting Shippensburg #1... they're #1 in both metrics, but their best win is over West Chester.

They've downed most of the West Division opponents they've played outside of Gannon fairly easily. In the East, Kutztown's height (11 women 5-10 or taller on the roster) gave them some trouble. I was surprised Kutztown has lost as much as they have — apparently due to offensive inconsistency. I'd likely bet on Ship against any PSAC opponent outside of Gannon, but strange things (like the Bloomsburg loss) can happen. The women seem to blow much hotter or colder than the men's teams when it comes to shooting. They can either shoot incredibly or go unbelievably cold. Ship has done both this year. After Aerial Jone's incredible 51-point night against Millersville, they coasted against the woeful Shepherd team on Wednesday and then proceeded to start 1-for-13 and score only six points in the first quarter against Lock Haven. Then, in the same Lock Haven game, they hit everything in the third quarter and score 30 points to pull out the win. The Raiders have played steadier defense this season, which has helped them survive most nights when their shooting has been off.

[jrshooter]

It's hard for many people to get a good read on Shippensburg because its franchise player, Jones, might not be who they remembered from 2, 3, 4 years ago. She always was a stop-and-pop shooter, and will still put up a lot of those shots. But they aren't falling with the same consistency (.301 outside the arc). Now, a lot of her offense is created by Jones blowing past defenders, scoring on the drive or drawing the two FTs.

Beyond Ariel, Kristy Trn is depending on a whole lot of defense, and with a few notable exceptions, her club has answered the bell consistently in that regard.

[Ship69]

It's hard for many people to get a good read on Shippensburg because its franchise player, Jones, might not be who they remembered from 2, 3, 4 years ago. She always was a stop-and-pop shooter, and will still put up a lot of those shots. But they aren't falling with the same consistency (.301 outside the arc). Now, a lot of her offense is created by Jones blowing past defenders, scoring on the drive or drawing the two FTs.

Beyond Ariel, Kristy Trn is depending on a whole lot of defense, and with a few notable exceptions, her club has answered the bell consistently in that regard.

What Jones is doing especially well this year is changing gears on her drives, getting to the hoop, and drawing fouls. And as her national record for foul shots made indicates she has been doing that well over her career. She sometimes drives into trouble (got lost among the trees of Kutztown a few times), but she's obviously successful much more often than not.

Chris Fite is not the only Ship coach who will need to do some serious recruiting after this season. Trn will not lose as many quality players, but the two she is losing, Jones and Pettis, are literally half the team's points and rebounding.

[Scrub]

Glenville took down Fairmont last night. I'll be interested to see where Inkblot files everyone this week. Fairmont might fall from his #3 slot.

(And, of course, WVSU's losing streak hits 5. If we could convince the rest of the MEC to help us out, maybe we can keep those guys out of the regional. They're exactly the kind of team that could sneak in at a 7 or 8 spot and make a deep run. Scary bunch when they're actually dialed in.)

[IUPbigINDIANS]

Glenville took down Fairmont last night. I'll be interested to see where Inkblot files everyone this week. Fairmont might fall from his #3 slot.

(And, of course, WVSU's losing streak hits 5. If we could convince the rest of the MEC to help us out, maybe we can keep those guys out of the regional. They're exactly the kind of team that could sneak in at a 7 or 8 spot and make a deep run. Scary bunch when they're actually dialed in.)

Sounds like WVSU is doing fine on its own trying to stay out of the Regional.


Glenville and West Chester should play each other. They seem like identical teams.

[Inkblot]

Glenville took down Fairmont last night. I'll be interested to see where Inkblot files everyone this week. Fairmont might fall from his #3 slot.

(And, of course, WVSU's losing streak hits 5. If we could convince the rest of the MEC to help us out, maybe we can keep those guys out of the regional. They're exactly the kind of team that could sneak in at a 7 or 8 spot and make a deep run. Scary bunch when they're actually dialed in.)

VUU also lost for the first time in four weeks, and not to a good team – Johnson C. Smith only had four D2 wins entering the game.

[Scrub]

VUU also lost for the first time in four weeks, and not to a good team – Johnson C. Smith only had four D2 wins entering the game.

Let the March "Madness" begin!

[IUPbigINDIANS]

What was already messy just got a whole lot messier last night. Updated losses below.


0-1 losses

IUP (21-0)

2-3 losses

West Liberty (18-3)
Mercyhurst (16-3)

4-5 losses

Claflin (15-4)
Virginia Union (18-5)
East Stroudsburg (16-5)
Fairmont State (16-5)
Winston-Salem State (15-5)
Pitt-Johnstown (15-5)

6-7 losses

Charleston (15-6)
West Chester (15-6)
West Virginia State (15-6)
Lock Haven (14-6)
Virginia State (15-7)
Slippery Rock (14-7)
Notre Dame (14-7)
Shippensburg (13-7)


Notes / Comments / Guesses

* Claflin has a nice record on paper but horrendous metrics
* IUP is 6-0 against teams listed above -- and has 3 games remaining against teams listed above
* Pitt-Johnstown may benefit the most from last night. UPJ has a very good SOS (however not a great W/L record against top teams)
* The PSAC East bubble teams will take care of themselves



My 'strictly eye test' rankings:

-

1	IUP	Hawks have a nice cushion in the loss column
2	West Liberty	Hilltoppers have Charleston and Fairmont at home
3	Mercyhurst	Hosts IUP next week
4	Fairmont State	Swept by Glenville but good resume overall
5	East Stroudsburg	Coming out of a funk
6	Virginia Union	Bad loss last night
7	Pitt-Johnstown	Huge win against Mercyhurst last week
8	Charleston	8-10 are pretty similar
9	West Chester	LH or Ship could easily be in this spot as well
10	Winston-Salem State	8-10 are pretty similar

[IUPbigINDIANS]

Some movement over the weekend in the MEN'S NCAA race. Long way to go, but some are certainly safer as of now than others. Historically, when a team picks up its 8th loss they enter the danger zone. Not always, but more often than not.


0-3 Losses

IUP (22-0)
West Liberty (19-3)
Mercyhurst (16-3)



4-6 losses

Claflin (17-4)
Virginia Union (19-5)
Fairmont State (17-5)
East Stroudsburg (17-5)
Pitt-Johnstown (16-5)
Winston-Salem State (16-5)
West Chester (16-6)
West Virginia State (16-6)
Lock Haven (15-6)



7-8 losses (bubble)

Virginia State (16-7)
Charleston (15-7)
Slippery Rock (14-8)
Millersville (14-8)
Notre Dame (14-8)
Shippensburg (13-8)


Candidates perhaps capable of a big run in conference tournament week and causing chaos:

Fayetteville State (13-11)
Glenville State (13-9)
Concord (11-10)
Shepherd (11-11)
Seton Hill (13-9)
California (10-12)

[GoVSUTrojans]

Some movement over the weekend in the MEN'S NCAA race. Long way to go, but some are certainly safer as of now than others. Historically, when a team picks up its 8th loss they enter the danger zone. Not always, but more often than not.


0-3 Losses

IUP (22-0)
West Liberty (19-3)
Mercyhurst (16-3)



4-6 losses

Claflin (17-4)
Virginia Union (19-5)
Fairmont State (17-5)
East Stroudsburg (17-5)
Pitt-Johnstown (16-5)
Winston-Salem State (16-5)
West Chester (16-6)
West Virginia State (16-6)
Lock Haven (15-6)



7-8 losses (bubble)

Virginia State (16-7)
Charleston (15-7)
Slippery Rock (14-8)
Millersville (14-8)
Notre Dame (14-8)
Shippensburg (13-8)


Candidates perhaps capable of a big run in conference tournament week and causing chaos:

Fayetteville State (13-11)
Glenville State (13-9)
Concord (11-10)
Shepherd (11-11)
Seton Hill (13-9)
California (10-12)

I'm surprise to see VSU as a "bubble" team. I would think at this point only the CIAA tourney is getting in. With that being said, the best team in the CIAA is VUU. I personally wouldn't send anyone else for the possibility of getting embarrassed.

[Inkblot]

I'm surprise to see VSU as a "bubble" team. I would think at this point only the CIAA tourney is getting in. With that being said, the best team in the CIAA is VUU. I personally wouldn't send anyone else for the possibility of getting embarrassed.

VSU might have a chance with a win over VUU.