West Liberty Hilltopper Basketball

[Columbuseer]

You posit that WLU's lack of ultimate success in the NCAA Tourney can be overcome by:

1. Continued increase in talent level,
2. Improved team defense,
3. Improved individual defense,
4. Improved execution of the WLU style

I would counter that WLU, particularly with regard to the 2, 3 and 4, is already far into an area of diminishing returns. As you have amply demonstrated WLU's offensive and defensive styles is already operating at an incredibly high level of efficiency and productivity. The law of diminishing returns amply points out that the amount of effort necessary for WLU to improve on their current level of effectiveness will be exponentially greater than the level necessary to get to this point. While this might be possible given unlimited practice time, I would note that the NCAA does not provide WLU with unlimited practice time.

Concerning WLU continuing to increase its talent level, I would again point out diminishing returns as a limiting factor. Ben has done an outstanding job of improving the overall talent over the last several years. By all accounts I have heard, he is a tireless recruiter who puts in long hours identifying players, and actively recruiting them. But again, there are only so many hours in the day and so many players he can scout and recruit. I would also note that he is limited by a couple of other factors that being number of scholarships and competition from other coaches

I would suggest that the overall talent level has been steadily increasing in each of the last four years, with this year's class of freshmen and transfers being potentially the highest yet. If it continues to climb, in another 2 or 3 years, look out!

Coach Howlett is a tireless recruiter, but it is a false dichotomy to suggest "work harder" is the only alternative for better talent. Some alternatives:

• Each year the wlu record of success is getting the attention of more players each year across a larger geographical area, who are already familiar with their style. Big advantage in recruiting. I wonder if we could approach the point where we select, more than recruit (demand exceeds available scholarships).
• More players are considering wlu along with d1 offers.
• Wlu has gotten their first eastern European player, which may open new pools of players, who are generally more complete players than American players
• The data does not support the assertion that wlu offense or defense has hit the point of dismissing returns. A few examples:
  • Wlu is getting more shutdown defenders like Cmont Montague , who are also complete players, which will lower opponent's ppp.
  • Wlu averages 1.25 ppp, which is incredible. But when the ball does not stick, they are capable of 1.3 to 1.4 ppp ( look at home game against fairmont).
  • When wlu players stay in the moment and focused, we will give up much fewer opponent run outs for layups after a wlu score.
  • Viktor is also a shot blocker and solid defender at 6-8

[boatcapt]

I would suggest that the overall talent level has been steadily increasing in each of the last four years, with this year's class of freshmen and transfers being potentially the highest yet. If it continues to climb, in another 2 or 3 years, look out!

Coach Howlett is a tireless recruiter, but it is a false dichotomy to suggest "work harder" is the only alternative for better talent. Some alternatives:

• Each year the wlu record of success is getting the attention of more players each year across a larger geographical area, who are already familiar with their style. Big advantage in recruiting. I wonder if we could approach the point where we select, more than recruit (demand exceeds available scholarships).
• More players are considering wlu along with d1 offers.
• Wlu has gotten their first eastern European player, which may open new pools of players, who are generally more complete players than American players
• The data does not support the assertion that wlu offense or defense has hit the point of dismissing returns. A few examples:
  • Wlu is getting more shutdown defenders like Cmont Montague , who are also complete players, which will lower opponent's ppp.
  • Wlu averages 1.25 ppp, which is incredible. But when the ball does not stick, they are capable of 1.3 to 1.4 ppp ( look at home game against fairmont).
  • When wlu players stay in the moment and focused, we will give up much fewer opponent run outs for layups after a wlu score.
  • Viktor is also a shot blocker and solid defender at 6-8

We'll see if the work harder, "more cow bell" approach is really all WLU needs to do to get over the hump because, clearly, Ben is not going to change.

[Columbuseer]

We'll see if the work harder, "more cow bell" approach is really all WLU needs to do to get over the hump because, clearly, Ben is not going to change.

Just to be clear, I do not advocate the work harder approach. My comment was refuting that suggestion. The wlu coaches work incredibly long hours while having far less than the resources and $3M a year salary of d1 coaches. We are so fortunate to have them, as all three have received national recognition in their profession.

[boatcapt]

Just to be clear, I do not advocate the work harder approach. My comnent was refuting that suggestion. The wlu coaches work incredibly long hours while having far less than the resources and $3M a year salary of d1 coaches. We are so fortunate to have them as all three have received national recognition in their profession.

I would hope they are going to work harder to get more D1 calibre players to play at WLU. What WLU does is not "new" anymore. Yes it is still relatively unique, but after close to 20 years, it's not new. So to get higher quality players to commit, they are going to have to work harder. Same with the team in practice. To improve on their already incredably high efficiency, they are going to have to work that much harder. Either that or just hope luck and good tourney seeding can carry them to a NC.

[Columbuseer]

FYI

Shows points per possession (ppp) by game, which allows one to compare teams regardless of pace of play or style. Highest ppp always wins.
WLU season average was 1.25, which is incredible.
However if we exclude the 3 regular season hero ball losses, the ppp rises to 1.28.
typical d1 styles max out at 1.1 to 1.15 among elite teams (excluding Gonzaga).
Very rare for a team to lose if team averages over 1.3 ppp in a game.


10 games were over 1.3 ppp
4 games were over 1.45 ppp
highest was 1.59 ppp against fairmont at home.
So there is room for improvement in the players' execution of the wlu style.

Best opponent ppp was 1.46 by fairmont in mec final. One of rare cases where wlu was 1.38 ppp and lost. In elite 8, NWMSU was 1.42 (big surprise lol)

Opponent	Date	Score	w/l	WL num possession	WL points per possession	OPPONENTS points per possession
NOTRE DAME COLLEGE	01/07/21	98-77	W	75	1.31	1.04
at Alderson Broaddus	01/10/21	123-73	W	82	1.5	0.91
at Fairmont St.	01/13/21	96-84	W	89	1.08	0.94
FROSTBURG STATE	01/15/21	134-72	W	97	1.38	0.76
at Concord	01/20/21	83-91	L	82	1.01	1.15
W.VA. STATE	01/27/21	96-100	L	88	1.09	1.1
at Charleston (WV)	01/30/21	74-78	L	71	1.04	1.11
GLENVILLE STATE	02/01/21	117-85	W	99	1.18	0.89
ALDERSON BROADDUS	02/03/21	117-78	W	85	1.38	0.95
W.VA. WESLEYAN	02/07/21	111-64	W	93	1.19	0.72
WHEELING UNIVERSITY	02/10/21	119-76	W	81	1.47	0.96
at Notre Dame (OH)	02/13/21	89-84	W	78	1.14	1.08
at Frostburg St.	02/20/21	128-75	W	87	1.47	0.87
at Davis & Elkins	02/22/21	77-59	W	68	1.13	0.88
FAIRMONT ST.	02/24/21	126-96	W	79	1.59	1.23
at Wheeling	02/27/21	107-88	W	82	1.3	1.09
vs Concord	03/05/21	102-68	W	86	1.19	0.82
vs Glenville St.	03/06/21	95-92	W	73	1.3	1.26
vs Fairmont St.	03/07/21	99-102	L	72	1.38	1.46
MALONE	03/13/21	94-89	W	81	1.16	1.03
CHARLESTON (WV)	03/14/21	82-63	W	65	1.26	0.98
HILLSDALE COLLEGE	03/16/21	78-61	W	73	1.07	0.82
vs Northwest Mo. St.	03/24/21	77-98	L	70	1.1	1.42

[boatcapt]

FYI

Shows points per possession (ppp) by game, which allows one to compare teams regardless of pace of play or style. Highest ppp always wins.
WLU season average was 1.25, which is incredible.
However if we exclude the 3 regular season hero ball losses, the ppp rises to 1.28.
typical d1 styles max out at 1.1 to 1.15 among elite teams (excluding Gonzaga).
Very rare for a team to lose if team averages over 1.3 ppp in a game.


10 games were over 1.3 ppp
4 games were over 1.45 ppp
highest was 1.59 ppp against fairmont at home.
So there is room for improvement in the players' execution of the wlu style.

Best opponent ppp was 1.46 by fairmont in mec final. One of rare cases where wlu was 1.38 ppp and lost. In elite 8, NWMSU was 1.42 (big surprise lol)

Opponent	Date	Score	w/l	WL num possession	WL points per possession	OPPONENTS points per possession
NOTRE DAME COLLEGE	01/07/21	98-77	W	75	1.31	1.04
at Alderson Broaddus	01/10/21	123-73	W	82	1.5	0.91
at Fairmont St.	01/13/21	96-84	W	89	1.08	0.94
FROSTBURG STATE	01/15/21	134-72	W	97	1.38	0.76
at Concord	01/20/21	83-91	L	82	1.01	1.15
W.VA. STATE	01/27/21	96-100	L	88	1.09	1.1
at Charleston (WV)	01/30/21	74-78	L	71	1.04	1.11
GLENVILLE STATE	02/01/21	117-85	W	99	1.18	0.89
ALDERSON BROADDUS	02/03/21	117-78	W	85	1.38	0.95
W.VA. WESLEYAN	02/07/21	111-64	W	93	1.19	0.72
WHEELING UNIVERSITY	02/10/21	119-76	W	81	1.47	0.96
at Notre Dame (OH)	02/13/21	89-84	W	78	1.14	1.08
at Frostburg St.	02/20/21	128-75	W	87	1.47	0.87
at Davis & Elkins	02/22/21	77-59	W	68	1.13	0.88
FAIRMONT ST.	02/24/21	126-96	W	79	1.59	1.23
at Wheeling	02/27/21	107-88	W	82	1.3	1.09
vs Concord	03/05/21	102-68	W	86	1.19	0.82
vs Glenville St.	03/06/21	95-92	W	73	1.3	1.26
vs Fairmont St.	03/07/21	99-102	L	72	1.38	1.46
MALONE	03/13/21	94-89	W	81	1.16	1.03
CHARLESTON (WV)	03/14/21	82-63	W	65	1.26	0.98
HILLSDALE COLLEGE	03/16/21	78-61	W	73	1.07	0.82
vs Northwest Mo. St.	03/24/21	77-98	L	70	1.1	1.42

Did some comparison of WLU's teams during the last four years (under Ben's tenure). On paper, the "quality" (athletacism, basketball IQ, D1 caliber...what ever you want to call it) has increased markedly. One would think this improvement in talent would result in a higher level of efficiency as more D1 players enter the program, but that doesn't seem to be the case. In fact, as measured by the PPP metric, over the last four seasons WLU's PPP has gone as follows:

2017/18 1.28 PPP
2018/19 1.27 PPP
2019/20 1.26 PPP
2020/21 1.25 PPP

While all are impressive numbers, the downward trend line, coupled with the improvement in D1 talent, makes me question weather we can efficiency our way to a NC.

In fact, looking back at Crutch's last four teams (including the NC game team), he was able to achieve the same PPP with lesser talent (16/17 1.27 PPP, 15/16 1.23, 14/15 1.28, 13/14 1.26).

[Columbuseer]

Did some comparison of WLU's teams during the last four years (under Ben's tenure). On paper, the "quality" (athletacism, basketball IQ, D1 caliber...what ever you want to call it) has increased markedly. One would think this improvement in talent would result in a higher level of efficiency as more D1 players enter the program, but that doesn't seem to be the case. In fact, as measured by the PPP metric, over the last four seasons WLU's PPP has gone as follows:

2017/18 1.28 PPP
2018/19 1.27 PPP
2019/20 1.26 PPP
2020/21 1.25 PPP

While all are impressive numbers, the downward trend line, coupled with the improvement in D1 talent, makes me question weather we can efficiency our way to a NC.

In fact, looking back at Crutch's last four teams (including the NC game team), he was able to achieve the same PPP with lesser talent (16/17 1.27 PPP, 15/16 1.23, 14/15 1.28, 13/14 1.26).

It is really hard to break 1.3 ppp season average. Coach Howlett said that they got away from playing wlu basketball during their 3 game losing streak. If you exclude those games, the 20/21 team ppp was 1.28, which equals crutchs best last 4 teams.

IMHO the upside is much higher for the current team, compared to crutchs teams.

• they can play shutdown half court defense. Look at ppp of hillsdale game, and Hillsdale is a great defensive and offensive team.
• Many more players who are capable of finishing at the rim as well as hitting the three. Crutchs teams lived and died by the three and forcing turnovers.
• More players who are very difficult to defend without help
• Among nations leaders in offensive rebounding

Areas of improvement compared to prior teams

• improve 3 pt shooting - several guys dropped 10 percentage points from prior year. Team avg went from 40+ % to 36.8%.
• Prior teams rotated the ball faster and had better timing on back cuts, thus distorting the defense
• Many guys are cutting and getting open too early before passer is ready to deliver the ball
• More screens and movement without ball, and less standing on perimeter
• Need to commit fewer turnovers, especially charging fouls. everyone like to fly the friendly skies instead of doing jump stop for 8 ft jumper

if they improve in these areas, they could raise the ppp and reduce variation between of ppp throughout season. I will take better athletes every time.

[boatcapt]

It is really hard to break 1.3 ppp season average. Coach Howlett said that they got away from playing wlu basketball during their 3 game losing streak. If you exclude those games, the 20/21 team ppp was 1.28, which equals crutchs best last 4 teams.

IMHO the upside is much higher for the current team, compared to crutchs teams.

• they can play shutdown half court defense. Look at ppp of hillsdale game, and Hillsdale is a great defensive and offensive team.
• Many more players who are capable of finishing at the rim as well as hitting the three. Crutchs teams lived and died by the three and forcing turnovers.
• More players who are very difficult to defend without help
• Among nations leaders in offensive rebounding

Areas of improvement compared to prior teams

• improve 3 pt shooting - several guys dropped 10 percentage points from prior year. Team avg went from 40+ % to 36.8%.
• Prior teams rotated the ball faster and had better timing on back cuts, thus distorting the defense
• Many guys are cutting and getting open too early before passer is ready to deliver the ball
• More screens and movement without ball, and less standing on perimeter
• Need to commit fewer turnovers, especially charging fouls. everyone like to fly the friendly skies instead of doing jump stop for 8 ft jumper

if they improve in these areas, they could raise the ppp and reduce variation between of ppp throughout season. I will take better athletes every time.

Stat's always improve when people exclude their teams worst showings. I always challenge them by saying, if you want to exclude the three worst performances, then you equally need to exclude the three BEST performances.

Yea...Improving shooting always makes you a better team as does committing fewer TO's and charging fouls. Cue Captain Obvious saying, we'd win a lot more games...if we just upped our scoring by 20 points per game, committed no TO's and stopped charging.

As I've said before the effort necessary to get the last few percentages of efficiency in any thing is a monumental difficult thing to do. The PPP for VERY good WLU teams under Ben and in Crutch's last four years indicates that we are probably at or very close to the practical efficiency limit of WLU's style. IMHO, to get that last bit of efficiency, we would need to increase practice time WAY beyond what the NCAA will allow.

[Columbuseer]

Stat's always improve when people exclude their teams worst showings. I always challenge them by saying, if you want to exclude the three worst performances, then you equally need to exclude the three BEST performances.

Yea...Improving shooting always makes you a better team as does committing fewer TO's and charging fouls. Cue Captain Obvious saying, we'd win a lot more games...if we just upped our scoring by 20 points per game, committed no TO's and stopped charging.

As I've said before the effort necessary to get the last few percentages of efficiency in any thing is a monumental difficult thing to do. The PPP for VERY good WLU teams under Ben and in Crutch's last four years indicates that we are probably at or very close to the practical efficiency limit of WLU's style. IMHO, to get that last bit of efficiency, we would need to increase practice time WAY beyond what the NCAA will allow.

I excluded those 3 games because they were not playing the wlu style, not because they lost. They must have been playing the infamous auxiliary style! LOL just kidding.

The key to high quality in any process is to reduce variation. We will reach 1.3 ppp by reducing the number of 1.1 to 1.15 ppp games.

if we can get the avg turnovers below 10 that should help. Crutchs teams did not commit as many charges if memory serves me correctlly, which resulted in fewer turnovers. Clearly a doable goal for 21/22 team.

[boatcapt]

I excluded those 3 games because they were not playing the wlu style, not because they lost. They must have been playing the infamous auxiliary style! LOL just kidding.

The key to high quality in any process is to reduce variation. We will reach 1.3 ppp by reducing the number of 1.1 to 1.15 ppp games.

if we can get the avg turnovers below 10 that should help. Crutchs teams did not commit as many charges if memory serves me correctlly, which resulted in fewer turnovers. Clearly a doable goal for 21/22 team.

To quote and slightly modify what Bill Parcel said - "You are what your record (and stats) say you are.

There appears to be a realistic maximum of efficiency to the WLU style. There are two teams that run the WLU Style 100%...West Liberty AND Nova Southeastern. Last two seasons Crutch and Nova achieved 1.25 and 1.2 PPP. Just as you postulate that the limit of "hero ball" is 1.1 PPP, based on the available evidence, it appears that the limit of the WLU Style may be in the 1.25-1.28 range.

Also interesting to look at Nova's roster make-up. You see many players who can shoot the 3 (just like WLU) and there are some tall Euro types with outside chops (WLU now has one)...but you also see a few bigs who are much less accomplished from outside. For example former Fairmont player 6'8", 210 RJ Sunahara. He started 28 games in 19/20 and averaged 25.6 minutes, shot .608 from the field but only .261 from 3 (only 23 tries) but had 42 blocked shots and 202 rebounds. Those latter two numbers would have put him first (by a large margin) and second (behind only Bolon) on WLU. He also averaged 12.8 PPG which would have placed him #4 on WLU ahead of Boswell, Moore, and NcKiney. Shot .260 from 3 in HS in Ohio so clearly WLU had no interest in him...But Crutch did have interest and figured out how to use him to great effect...even though he doesn't fit into the mold of a "WLU Style" player. And somehow, Nova was able to improve their PPP efficiency even with a non-conforming big who played a more traditional game. Guess "Saint Crutch" is still teaching lessons for those who care to pay attention.

As a side note, it is going to be interesting to watch what happens at Bluefield State. Former WLU player and Crutch assistant at Nova Devin Hoehn was hired and he flat out implied that he was installing the WLU Style immediately. I'm interested in seeing how "efficient" it is in year one.

[Columbuseer]

There appears to be a realistic maximum of efficiency to the WLU style. There are two teams that run the WLU Style 100%...West Liberty AND Nova Southeastern. Last two seasons Crutch and Nova achieved 1.25 and 1.2 PPP. Just as you postulate that the limit of "hero ball" is 1.1 PPP, based on the available evidence, it appears that the limit of the WLU Style may be in the 1.25-1.28 range.

Also interesting to look at Nova's roster make-up. You see many players who can shoot the 3 and there are some tall Euro types with outside chops...but you also see a few bigs who are much less accomplished from outside. For example former Fairmont player 6'8", 210 RJ Sunahara. He started 28 games in 19/20 and averaged 25.6 minutes, shot .608 from the field but only .261 from 3 (only 23 tries) but had 42 blocked shots and 202 rebounds. Those latter two numbers would have put him first (by a large margin) and second (behind only Bolon) on WLU. He also averaged 12.8 PPG which would have placed him #4 on WLU ahead of Boswell, Moore, and NcKiney. Shot .260 from 3 in HS in Ohio so clearly WLU had no interest in him...But Crutch did have interest and figured out how to use him to great effect...even though he doesn't fit into the mold of a "WLU Style" player. And somehow, Nova was able to improve their PPP efficiency even with a non-conforming big who played a more traditional game. Guess "Saint Crutch" is still teaching lessons for those who care to pay attention.

A few points...
1. Imho Nova could have made a serious run at nwmsu last season as well as this season. Slight recruiting advantage at Nova- population, beach, med school etc. Lol. But we may still have better athletes at guard.

2. Although an understandable presumption, u might want to confirm with rj who recruited him. Mazulla had the nba siren song lol.
He left when mazulla left... and went to Nova... hmm. He is an incredible d1 level player. Dominant in Akron pro am league inside and outside. We recruited Malik who shot under 30% at Seton Hill. In 2020 he was over 40% from three.
3. Wlu averaged 1.25 ppp across all games while shooting 49.3% and having 11.5 turnovers per game. If they make one more 2 pt fg per game (50.6%, which is comparable to their 2020 50.5%) and commit 2 fewer turnovers (9.5), their ppp average is 1.32. I looked at a sample of 5 regular season games. They averaged about 3 offensive fouls per game.
Also, if they also refrain from trying to drive between two defenders and getting the ball stripped, this reduction in turnovers is possible (albeit with much effort and buy-in)..

IMHO, reducing turnovers is harder than it sounds. High school, AAU, and pickup games are generally devoid of help defense. If you beat your man, u can sky toward the rim. If anyone comes to help your defender, they get there late. So your eyes are on the rim rather than the help side defender. Result in college game is a charge or a ball strip by help side defender. So folks have to unlearn really bad habits. One game in my sample had 5 charges!

Golek from fsu is especially adept at drawing charges. Patrick outsmarted him at home by driving and adroitly sidestepping him for an easy uncontested layup while he stood frozen as a statue! Lol

[boatcapt]

I think a valid comparison would be PPP in the regular season vice the NCAA tourney. In the regular season, you are playing some pretty bad teams...In the tourney, by and large, you are playing good teams.

[Columbuseer]

2020-2021 First Annual WLU Hot Potato Awards. :-)

A key factor in the wlu offense is rapid, but effective passing, which also distorts the defense. Ultimately, it leads to open looks or clear paths to the rim. The ball cannot "stick" in a player's hands. The player must rapidly identify and assess any easy scoring opportunities, and make the correct pass if none are available.
IMHO, the following players were best at not letting the ball stick last season, in alphabetical order:

• Bryce Butler
• Owen Hazelbaker
• Zach Rasile
• Ben Sarson
• Elijah Watson

[boatcapt]

2020-2021 First Annual WLU Hot Potato Awards. :-)

A key factor in the wlu offense is rapid, but effective passing, which also distorts the defense. Ultimately, it leads to open looks or clear paths to the rim. The ball cannot "stick" in a player's hands. The player must rapidly identify and assess any easy scoring opportunities, and make the correct pass if none are available.
IMHO, the following players were best at not letting the ball stick last season, in alphabetical order:

• Bryce Butler
• Owen Hazelbaker
• Zach Rasile
• Ben Sarson
• Elijah Watson

I'd add PG Luke Dyer. He initiated most possessions and was the leading assist getter. In many ways, he was the "stray that stirred the WLU offensive drink."

[Columbuseer]

I'd add PG Luke Dyer. He initiated most possessions and was the leading assist getter. In many ways, he was the "stray that stirred the WLU offensive drink."

Yep. Should have included him even though pg is a special case. Luke leaves big shoes to fill. PG is a special case for they are naturally required to dribble and hold the ball more when guys are not spaced properly. His assists often come after the rapid ball reversal pass back to him at the top of the offense. He relies on his teammates to not let the ball stick, else it limits his ability to get the ball to the guy who is open due to distortion of the defensive spacing.