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Re: Iup basketball
Well, it's not 'early' anymore.
At 11-5, IUP is certainly approaching 'bubble' status for March.
At 8 losses they have a shot to go dancing. Nine losses ... maybe. Ten losses ... doubtful.
I see them likely losing the rematch at SRU. I project a split with Gannon and Edinboro. That gets them to 8 losses entering the PSAC Tournament. Slip up and lose a game to a Cal or UPJ and, well, probably start thinking about next season. I don't have much confidence they could win the PSAC Tournament. It will be on the road and, frankly, the East teams are just deeper.
Eight teams make the Regional. West Liberty is a lock. At most they will have two losses (if that). Wheeling Jesuit is a lock. Worst-case they have five losses. Virginia State is a lock and will be in the running to host.
That leaves five spots. The PSAC East has 4 very good teams. Granted, they will beat each other up down the stretch and give each other losses. Fairmont State also isn't likely to lose too many more times. They play Wheeling again and WL again and then the MEC Tournament. The rest of the MEC is pretty down this year. I don't see the big three losing to anybody other than each other.
The CIAA is also famous for having an unknown win its conference tournament and get a bid. VA State will be the clear favorite but we saw last year a team like Bowie go nuts when it counted. Virginia Union could be that type of team this year despite its 9-8 record.
I think right now the PSAC gets at least 3 spots.
IUP is strong enough to win the West. They showed last night they can put on a comedy performance and almost beat a really good ESU team. At this point anything after winning the West would be a bonus in my opinion. The roster makeup just isn't there to make a deep run. They'll be scary team to play and on the right night could upset just about anybody but to string together several 'big game' wins in a row ... I just don't see it. Too sporadic.
After last night (and last nights film gets out), if any team doesn't press them all night ... their coach should have his head examined. They'll win a lot of games the rest of the regular season. I've just lost confidence over the past 2.5 years this team can win when the lights get bright. They are just too careless and make too many self-inflicted mistakes to beat elite teams.
Joe can talk after the game about being tired. I'm not buying it. I watched those guys play full-steam for 40 minutes. They were up 9 late in the game. They'll be sick watching that film today. How do you smash a team 37-22 on the glass, shoot 59 percent for the game and still find a way to lose? Commit an 'alleged' 28 turnovers (likely closer to 35 by my count). Toss in a 'show off for the crowd' technical foul, too.
Tired teams don't shoot 59 percent for a whole game. Tired teams don't out-rebound a great rebounding team by 15. That wasn't a fatigue loss. That was a careless loss -- and despite some of your lovefests for the big guy -- it was a poorly coached loss.
"Big game", 'close' losses are also becoming the norm for this program the past 2-3 years. In the past 2.5 seasons they've lost to West Chester all three times, went 1-3 against Fairmont, 0-2 at home to Shippensburg, losses at home to Virginia State and East Stroudsburg, losses to Findlay and Ferris State. During this stretch the program is 60-17 as of this morning. They are winning everything but the 'big stage' games. Why is that?
Well, it's not 'early' anymore.
At 11-5, IUP is certainly approaching 'bubble' status for March.
At 8 losses they have a shot to go dancing. Nine losses ... maybe. Ten losses ... doubtful.
I see them likely losing the rematch at SRU. I project a split with Gannon and Edinboro. That gets them to 8 losses entering the PSAC Tournament. Slip up and lose a game to a Cal or UPJ and, well, probably start thinking about next season. I don't have much confidence they could win the PSAC Tournament. It will be on the road and, frankly, the East teams are just deeper.
Eight teams make the Regional. West Liberty is a lock. At most they will have two losses (if that). Wheeling Jesuit is a lock. Worst-case they have five losses. Virginia State is a lock and will be in the running to host.
That leaves five spots. The PSAC East has 4 very good teams. Granted, they will beat each other up down the stretch and give each other losses. Fairmont State also isn't likely to lose too many more times. They play Wheeling again and WL again and then the MEC Tournament. The rest of the MEC is pretty down this year. I don't see the big three losing to anybody other than each other.
The CIAA is also famous for having an unknown win its conference tournament and get a bid. VA State will be the clear favorite but we saw last year a team like Bowie go nuts when it counted. Virginia Union could be that type of team this year despite its 9-8 record.
I think right now the PSAC gets at least 3 spots.
IUP is strong enough to win the West. They showed last night they can put on a comedy performance and almost beat a really good ESU team. At this point anything after winning the West would be a bonus in my opinion. The roster makeup just isn't there to make a deep run. They'll be scary team to play and on the right night could upset just about anybody but to string together several 'big game' wins in a row ... I just don't see it. Too sporadic.
After last night (and last nights film gets out), if any team doesn't press them all night ... their coach should have his head examined. They'll win a lot of games the rest of the regular season. I've just lost confidence over the past 2.5 years this team can win when the lights get bright. They are just too careless and make too many self-inflicted mistakes to beat elite teams.
Joe can talk after the game about being tired. I'm not buying it. I watched those guys play full-steam for 40 minutes. They were up 9 late in the game. They'll be sick watching that film today. How do you smash a team 37-22 on the glass, shoot 59 percent for the game and still find a way to lose? Commit an 'alleged' 28 turnovers (likely closer to 35 by my count). Toss in a 'show off for the crowd' technical foul, too.
Tired teams don't shoot 59 percent for a whole game. Tired teams don't out-rebound a great rebounding team by 15. That wasn't a fatigue loss. That was a careless loss -- and despite some of your lovefests for the big guy -- it was a poorly coached loss.
"Big game", 'close' losses are also becoming the norm for this program the past 2-3 years. In the past 2.5 seasons they've lost to West Chester all three times, went 1-3 against Fairmont, 0-2 at home to Shippensburg, losses at home to Virginia State and East Stroudsburg, losses to Findlay and Ferris State. During this stretch the program is 60-17 as of this morning. They are winning everything but the 'big stage' games. Why is that?
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