Atlantic Region 2023 (Men's)

[Scrub]

How can you possibly compare when there’s zero context of the different schedules? The bottom 10-12 teams in the Atlantic Region are awful. Your Hiltoppers went a whopping 0-2 against other regions- Angelo State had 10 losses and got in as an 8 seed, and Dominican had 11 losses and missed the tournament. Going 25-5 and beating up on Kutztown and Bloomsburg, or in West Liberty’s case, Salem and West Virginia Wesleyan doesn’t mean anything. Looking at pure win/loss records, especially when you make a choice to play a dog**** nonconference schedule, is not a good indicator of how strong a team is.

I get that not all schedules are created equal. And I wasn't necessarily even making a value judgment (i.e., I wasn't in any way suggesting ESU was better than, say, Angelo State). That wasn't really the point I was making.

In fact, I'm not even sure I was making a point. I was simply marveling at the idea that (as IUPbigIndians likes to point out) in the Atlantic a 7th or 8th loss is usually the kiss of death for an NCAA berth. We spend so much time in our region worrying about a 6th, 7th, or 8th loss; whereas, in other regions a 7th loss apparently isn't the same sweat-inducing experience.

That's all--just remarking at the different experiences fans of different regions have. The tournament field always just gives us a minute to pause and think about how other regions function (because it's the first time many of us come up to look around beyond our own region--myself included).

[Ship69]

In a tight region, it's real hard to make a case for a team bounced in Round 2. I had a feeling they were dead in the water Wednesday night.

Watching them at the beginning of the season, my thought was that I'd seen Jeff Wilson have better teams at ESU, but their record got padded because the bottom of the East was unusually bad this season. Getting hammered by Gannon was one thing, as Gannon did that to more than a few teams this season, but their inability to beat Lock Haven, dating back to last season, was certainly a warning sign. Ship getting caught with an awkward roster turnover and going 8-20 after six straight seasons of more than 20 wins followed by 19-9 and the divisional championship last year certainly contributed. It's been a long time, dating back almost 10 years, since they've been swept by all the division's top teams. Bloomsburg and Kutztown were also hopeless for most of the year, which led to a lot of wins for the top 4-5 teams. I expect Ship to have several new faces next year, but it likely will take more than one season to get back into top form after this year. But with the transfer portal, etc., you just don't know these days.

[IUPbigINDIANS]

Watching them at the beginning of the season, my thought was that I'd seen Jeff Wilson have better teams at ESU, but their record got padded because the bottom of the East was unusually bad this season. Getting hammered by Gannon was one thing, as Gannon did that to more than a few teams this season, but their inability to beat Lock Haven, dating back to last season, was certainly a warning sign. Ship getting caught with an awkward roster turnover and going 8-20 after six straight seasons of more than 20 wins followed by 19-9 and the divisional championship last year certainly contributed. It's been a long time, dating back almost 10 years, since they've been swept by all the division's top teams. Bloomsburg and Kutztown were also hopeless for most of the year, which led to a lot of wins for the top 4-5 teams. I expect Ship to have several new faces next year, but it likely will take more than one season to get back into top form after this year. But with the transfer portal, etc., you just don't know these days.

Elephant in the Ship room has to be Markus Frank.

Is he going to stay?

[boatcapt]

IUP was a perfect example. Joe played Concord (tournament team), St. Thomas Aquinas (tournament team and league champ) and Walsh (tournament team and league champ).

Lost all three this year. Probably could have won two of them. Had he played three meatballs things would have at least had a much different vibe coming down the stretch. And, in reality, this team needed to play three meatballs.

IUP lost to Gannon twice in the final minute and Cal twice in the final couple minutes.

Losses are losses, but, I agree. ESU played such a horrible schedule, and then went 1-5 against good teams. The resume just wasn't there despite the fancy record. They were no doubt the Kings of the B List, but, that doesn't do much for you on Selection Sunday.

The Atlantic was extremely thin on the top end this year. The middle had a slew of IUP types. The bottom had a ton of deadbeats.

Winner, winner Chicken dinner. Take care of business against good opponents in conference. Had ESU gone 2-4 against good PSAC teams, they probably would have been comfortably in.

[boatcapt]

Cal has better RPI and PI. Conference championships are not part of the seeding criteria.

Didn't ESU have a better PI and RPI than Concord? If so, how did Concord make the field??

[IUPHawks24]

I get that not all schedules are created equal. And I wasn't necessarily even making a value judgment (i.e., I wasn't in any way suggesting ESU was better than, say, Angelo State). That wasn't really the point I was making.

In fact, I'm not even sure I was making a point. I was simply marveling at the idea that (as IUPbigIndians likes to point out) in the Atlantic a 7th or 8th loss is usually the kiss of death for an NCAA berth. We spend so much time in our region worrying about a 6th, 7th, or 8th loss; whereas, in other regions a 7th loss apparently isn't the same sweat-inducing experience.

That's all--just remarking at the different experiences fans of different regions have. The tournament field always just gives us a minute to pause and think about how other regions function (because it's the first time many of us come up to look around beyond our own region--myself included).

Well, you were implying that the teams from other regions were substantially worse than East Stroudsburg because they had more losses, and I would strongly disagree.

My point is some of these teams with 8 or 9 losses would have fewer losses in the Atlantic Region this year. If East Stroudsburg or Millersville or West Liberty had to play more competitive teams each night, they wouldn't go 25-5.

I'm not a huge Massey Ratings fan (the defensive and offensive numbers are flat out wrong, and I think the overall rankings can be exploited by blowing out bad teams) but East Stroudsburg played six games versus the Top 110- and went 1-5. 19 of their games were against 200+ and they went 19-0. West Liberty was 13-0 versus 200+.

West Liberty gets to beat up on schools that are on the verge of closing- they went 0-2 against borderline NCAA teams from other regions- when is the last time they played a true non conference road game? I think when you dig into it, you see quickly how these records become massively inflated.

In comparison, Southern NH played a total of 7 games versus 200+ teams. Saint Michael's played 8. Northwest Missouri State played 2. Minnesota Duluth played 3.

[Scrub]

Well, you were implying that the teams from other regions were substantially worse than East Stroudsburg because they had more losses, and I would strongly disagree.

My point is some of these teams with 8 or 9 losses would have fewer losses in the Atlantic Region this year. If East Stroudsburg or Millersville or West Liberty had to play more competitive teams each night, they wouldn't go 25-5.

I'm not a huge Massey Ratings fan (the defensive and offensive numbers are flat out wrong, and I think the overall rankings can be exploited by blowing out bad teams) but East Stroudsburg played six games versus the Top 110- and went 1-5. 19 of their games were against 200+ and they went 19-0. West Liberty was 13-0 versus 200+.

West Liberty gets to beat up on schools that are on the verge of closing- they went 0-2 against borderline NCAA teams from other regions- when is the last time they played a true non conference road game? I think when you dig into it, you see quickly how these records become massively inflated.

In comparison, Southern NH played a total of 7 games versus 200+ teams. Saint Michael's played 8. Northwest Missouri State played 2. Minnesota Duluth played 3.

You're right--I probably implied a value judgment when I didn't necessarily intend to. I truly was just sorta marveling at the differences between experiences in the regions. But in re-reading my post, I'm not sure I conveyed the sense of wonder I intended.

In regard to WLU, it should be noted that Howlett has tried to schedule some stronger OOC opponents by going to those destination tourneys (Daytona, Vegas, etc.) the past two years. The problem is that WLU has gone 1-3 in those events the past two years. I commend Howlett for trying to find some stronger competition to offset the necessary games against Wesleyan & Frostburg, but the Hilltoppers are going to need to show a little more in those events if they keep scheduling them.

[Inkblot]

Didn't ESU have a better PI and RPI than Concord? If so, how did Concord make the field??

Concord made it because they swept West Virginia State, who otherwise had the best résumé of the four teams in contention for the last two spots. There were no factors like that to cause Charleston to be over Cal.

[boatcapt]

You're right--I probably implied a value judgment when I didn't necessarily intend to. I truly was just sorta marveling at the differences between experiences in the regions. But in re-reading my post, I'm not sure I conveyed the sense of wonder I intended.

In regard to WLU, it should be noted that Howlett has tried to schedule some stronger OOC opponents by going to those destination tourneys (Daytona, Vegas, etc.) the past two years. The problem is that WLU has gone 1-3 in those events the past two years. I commend Howlett for trying to find some stronger competition to offset the necessary games against Wesleyan & Frostburg, but the Hilltoppers are going to need to show a little more in those events if they keep scheduling them.

Rules for scheduling OOC:

1. Don't schedule a team that you believe you have a 50% or better chance of losing too (A loss costs you more "points" in W/L % than you get in SOS boost).
2. Don't schedule a team you believe you might be in "competition" with for tourney selection/seeding (Head-to-Head results trump other selection criteria)
3. If you are a top tier team, schedule teams you believe will finish above .500, if you believe you will be a .500 team, refer to rule 1.
4. It's OK to schedule OOC games for specific reasons (ex. If you have a young team that you want to get winning experience, schedule a truly bad team...if you want to "practice" an aspect of your game, schedule a team that runs an offense or defense that allows you to do that...)
5. If you are a good team that you believe will be in the NCAA tourney hunt, schedule your toughest OOC game vs an out of region foe (Preserve your in-region W/L).
6. If you are in a good conference (one with many ranked teams) you don't need to hunt for SOS boosters...If you are in a poor conference that lacks ranked opponents, you need to schedule "harder" OOC opponents to boost your SOS.

When all else fails, default to rule 1.

[boatcapt]

Concord made it because they swept West Virginia State, who otherwise had the best résumé of the four teams in contention for the last two spots. There were no factors like that to cause Charleston to be over Cal.

I'm talking about Concord in over ESU not Cal ranked over UC. I'm wondering what criteria were used by the selection committee that trumped the PI and RPI advantage that ESU had over Concord. We've been told that PI and RPI are the end all and be all of selection and seeding, yet, when it came to Concord and ESU, the selection committee appears to have ignored PI and RPI.

[Ship69]

Elephant in the Ship room has to be Markus Frank.

Is he going to stay?

I don't have any inside information about it, but I've heard nothing to indicate he would leave. Obviously that's his decision. I think he should have a stronger supporting cast next season, and I imagine that Ship is giving a player of his caliber a pretty good financial ride. Chris Fite has a good record of keeping his top players at home, but you certainly can't take anything for granted these days. It's bad enough when your team has a down season, but then it gets worse because you have to listen to rumors and speculation the whole off-season about whether you'll lose your best players. As IUP has found out, even a good season is no guarantee that you won't lose players. Long and short of it is that whatever will be, will be.

[IUPbigINDIANS]

You mentioned 25-5 being a disappointment.

I kept thinking about that when watching the selection show. There are teams with 8 losses HOSTING a Regional. Teams with 8 losses couldn't even sniff our regional let alone host it. There are teams with 10 & 11 losses in the tournament. Ten or 11 losses in the Atlantic would put you in about 15th place. At 25-5, ESU would be host material in about 5 of these Regions, but in the Atlantic, they're sitting at home. Crazy to think.

It's the old adage of it doesn't matter how you get to the dance ... just get there.

All those fancy records turned back to 0-0 last night around 11 p.m.

I can't tell you how many times I've seen a team play red hot in the conference tournament and then turn in to a pumpkin 6 days later.

The conference tournaments have pressure, but nothing like next week. The loser goes home. Not all teams deal with it very well.


There are some intriguing matchups in Round 1.

Lincoln had Gannon dead in the water back in November before blowing the game late. While typically not the most fundamentally sound, CIAA teams are all athletic, big and can run. This is actually the type of pace Lincoln prefers to play.

As you said, perhaps there was a reason Charleston cheered for West Liberty. Concord is a much stronger team when it plays a half-court game, and has the size to match-up with Charleston. Yes, Concord got swept this year, but both games were tight.

WVSU is a known giant killer, and also a team known to take a nap for 35 minutes. If there's a wildcard in this tournament, they are it. WVSU certainly has the size and athletes to hang with Cal. The Vulcans have no form of home court advantage. The students will be on Spring Break.

Millersville did not look good - at all - against Gannon. That better change in a hurry.

[IUPbigINDIANS]

One interesting item in the Lincoln vs Gannon game ...

This is a rematch (they played in November) but it will be interesting to see how Lincoln looks against the pressure with two weeks to prepare.

Most years, I don't think CIAA teams having two weeks off before Round 1 does them many favors. That's a long stretch without any live action. However, in this instance, the extra prep time should help them.

It's been a long time in the Atlantic since an 8-seed won. Mercyhurst upset Wheeling about 10 years ago on the men's side. The IUP women lost to Mount Olive about 15 years ago. The IUP men nearly went out on Day 1 last year.

Quite a disaster for the home school to go out on Day 1. That's a whole lot less hot dogs sold.

[IUP24]

One interesting item in the Lincoln vs Gannon game ...

This is a rematch (they played in November) but it will be interesting to see how Lincoln looks against the pressure with two weeks to prepare.

Most years, I don't think CIAA teams having two weeks off before Round 1 does them many favors. That's a long stretch without any live action. However, in this instance, the extra prep time should help them.

It's been a long time in the Atlantic since an 8-seed won. Mercyhurst upset Wheeling about 10 years ago on the men's side. The IUP women lost to Mount Olive about 15 years ago. The IUP men nearly went out on Day 1 last year.

Quite a disaster for the home school to go out on Day 1. That's a whole lot less hot dogs sold.

I think the fact that Gannon played a tough game with them earlier in the year probably means something. I don't think Lincoln is sneaking up on them. The caveat to your examples you mentioned...

1. IUP entered the tournament (despite being the top seed in the region) not playing good basketball. Gannon seems to be playing some of their best ball right now, and that's what you want this time of year.
2. Mercyhurst played a significantly different style than anything that Wheeling had seen all year. And that was a great Mercyhurst team too. They gave NWMS their only difficult game of the entire season.

I think Gannon wins. And I think they may do it with a comfortable number against the spread.

[Ship69]

One interesting item in the Lincoln vs Gannon game ...

This is a rematch (they played in November) but it will be interesting to see how Lincoln looks against the pressure with two weeks to prepare.

Most years, I don't think CIAA teams having two weeks off before Round 1 does them many favors. That's a long stretch without any live action. However, in this instance, the extra prep time should help them.

It's been a long time in the Atlantic since an 8-seed won. Mercyhurst upset Wheeling about 10 years ago on the men's side. The IUP women lost to Mount Olive about 15 years ago. The IUP men nearly went out on Day 1 last year.

Quite a disaster for the home school to go out on Day 1. That's a whole lot less hot dogs sold.

Lincoln is one of those teams that can play a different game every night of the week. Ship scrimmaged them, and it was fairly competitive. You know what kind of season Ship ended up with. But then Lincoln gave both California and Gannon fits — definitely could have won either game. I think they like a fast tempo.