West Liberty Hilltopper Basketball

[Columbuseer]

If these truly athletically gifted d1 teams (like wvu) would develop their fundamentals to a level comparable to WLU, they would be a fixture in the final four. But they would have to pass and rotate the ball 4 or more times to give a teammate an open on-balance shot that allows the bigs to crash the boards. And close out shooters on defense.
Huggins implores them to do so but they seem to not understand that this is how you win consistently.

Really painful to watch such talent go to waste.

[Columbuseer]

Pretty clear that, at our level, WLU is fundamentally "better" than WVU. NOT saying that WLU would beat or even hang with WVU in a real game. Interesting comparison would be comparing WLU to the roughly #4 D1 team this year.

Florida State was #4 in final poll.
WLU better than FSU in all categories except blocks.
FSU had better points per possession than WVU.
Based on limited data samples, top 5 d1 teams have this stat between 1.00 and 1.10.

Team	West Liberty	WVU	Florida State #4
Year	2019	2019	2019
Turnover PerPossession Pct	14.3%	20.8%	19.1%
AssistsPerGame	18.5	12.4	13.2
AssistsPerPossession	0.23	0.18	0.19
Assist to Turnover Ratio	1.62	0.86	1.00
PointsPer Possession	1.27	1.01	1.09
PossessionsPerGame	80.3	69.4	69.4
NumberOf Possessions	2490	2151	2152
GP	31	31	31
FG Pct	50.5%	42.2%	45.7%
3FG Pct	41.3%	28.6%	35.1%
FT Pct	76.7%	64.2%	75.0%
Offensive Rebounds	448	455	352
Defensive Rebounds	856	757	750
Rebound Total	1304	1212	1102
Rebound Avg	42.1	39.1	35.5
Assist	574	383	409
TO	355	447	411
Blk	70	111	162
Stl	331	238	273
Pts	3174	2179	2336
Points Avg	102	70.3	75.4

[IUPbigINDIANS]

It's a tough comparison. What would WL's stats be playing in the Big 12 (much, much worse)? What would WVU's stats be playing in the MEC (tremendously better)?

I agree with the lacking fundamentals and team play for most D1 teams (especially P5).

But, WVU plays tremendously better competition. The worst Big 12 team would win the PSAC or MEC every year. An IUP or WL may get a magic night against one of them but over a season they'd do pretty bad. The lower D1 conferences they'd be competitive (.500 maybe).

WVU has a really nice team this year. Their bigs are legit and would destroy most D2 teams. The Big 12 is a gauntlet ... Kansas, TCU, Baylor, Texas, Oklahoma, etc. Brutal slate.

[Columbuseer]

It's a tough comparison. What would WL's stats be playing in the Big 12 (much, much worse)?
....

[Columbuseer]

Gonzaga is WLU with D1 size (but by no means elite talent across the board like the blue bloods. Suggs is their highest rated recruit ever).
They don't press, but they are fundamentally sound in all phases, unselfish and spread the floor just like WLU

Comparable to WLU in so many of the key quality stats, and so much better than typical D1.
Look at their points per possession, which obviously determines if you win or lose.

Just like WLU, few of their players would win one-on-one playground games with their elite, blueblood opponent.
The point is that the keys to consistently winning are the same at D1 and D2.

Team	West Liberty	Gonzaga	WVU	Florida State #4
Year	2019	2019	2019	2019
Turnover PerPossession Pct	14.3%	15.5%	20.8%	19.1%
AssistsPerGame	18.5	16.7	12.4	13.2
AssistsPerPossession	0.23	0.23	0.18	0.19
Assist to Turnover Ratio	1.62	1.49	0.86	1.00
PointsPer Possession	1.27	1.21	1.01	1.09
PossessionsPerGame	80.3	72.0	69.4	69.4
NumberOf Possessions	2490	2377	2151	2152
GP	31	33	31	31
FG Pct	50.5%	51.5%	42.2%	45.7%
3FG Pct	41.3%	38.6%	28.6%	35.1%
FT Pct	76.7%	68.8%	64.2%	75.0%
Offensive Rebounds	448	373	455	352
Defensive Rebounds	856	948	757	750
Rebound Total	1304	1321	1212	1102
Rebound Avg	42.1	40.0	39.1	35.5
Assist	574	550	383	409
TO	355	368	447	411
Blk	70	127	111	162
Stl	331	243	238	273
Pts	3174	2885	2179	2336
Points Avg	102	87.4	70.3	75.4

[Columbuseer]

It's a tough comparison. What would WL's stats be playing in the Big 12 (much, much worse)? ...

Below are the highlights of Fort Hays State (FHSU) vs Kansas State. Of what team does Fort Hays' ball movement and shooting remind you? In basketball, you still have to play team defense and take good shots, regardless of your athletic ability. They exposed lack of D1 fundamentals.
And 2 FHSU coaches were out sick
They were picked to finish 7th in the MIAA this year and were 14-14 last year.
FHSU won 81-68.

ROFL
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sgS7Cfk3KuI

[IUPbigINDIANS]

Below are the highlights of Fort Hays State (FHSU) vs Kansas State. Of what team does Fort Hays' ball movement and shooting remind you? In basketball, you still have to play team defense and take good shots, regardless of your athletic ability. They exposed lack of D1 fundamentals.
And 2 FHSU coaches were out sick
They were picked to finish 7th in the MIAA this year and were 14-14 last year.
FHSU won 81-68.

ROFL
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sgS7Cfk3KuI

That game reminded me of a couple weeks ago when St. Francis beat Pitt. Pitt's players admitted they took the game lightly -- and, once they realized they were in trouble ... it was too late. If Pitt would play Saint Francis again tomorrow, they'd probably win by 15-20 points. But, they don't get that chance. Shame on KSU. KSU is also a pretty garbage P5 basketball program.

It's exactly why many won't play those games. Le Moyne beat Syracuse about 5-6 years ago. IUP had Kentucky on the ropes with 4 minutes left in the game. It happens every year. Joe Lombardi talks every year how he can't get a D1 game in Pennsylvania. Nobody will play them.

The course of a season, however, you wouldn't see the 'sneak up' effect.

[Columbuseer]

That game reminded me of a couple weeks ago when St. Francis beat Pitt. Pitt's players admitted they took the game lightly -- and, once they realized they were in trouble ... it was too late. If Pitt would play Saint Francis again tomorrow, they'd probably win by 15-20 points. But, they don't get that chance. Shame on KSU. KSU is also a pretty garbage P5 basketball program.

It's exactly why many won't play those games. Le Moyne beat Syracuse about 5-6 years ago. IUP had Kentucky on the ropes with 4 minutes left in the game. It happens every year. Joe Lombardi talks every year how he can't get a D1 game in Pennsylvania. Nobody will play them.

The course of a season, however, you wouldn't see the 'sneak up' effect.

IUP would beat a high % of D1 teams. I can see where few D1 teams want to play them.

Listened to Bruce Webber post game press conference. they won big 12 in 2019 and elite 8, I think. Basically said his players don't listen to coaches, which IMHO is common in D1 (Huggins has said same type of comment). KSU had 10 turnovers and one assist at half. Not rotating, getting hands up on defense, etc. - basic stuff you learn in grade school. Curse of AAU and elite D1 players.
Elite one on one players, but not much else.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oXTHYmi2BNQ

[Columbuseer]

[boatcapt]

This year is such a crap shoot. Could depend on how the NCAA decides to seed the 8 regions. If they keep the regions as set, WLU is the odds on favorite to advance from the Atlantic to the Elite 8. They certainly wouldn't be a shoe in as both Fairmont and UC will have a little to say about it! IF the NCAA decides to do away with the regions, it will really be a crap shoot...It is not just what WLU's seeding is but also who else is seeded in their bracket.

Just my opinion here, but there needs to be a minimum of DII games that a school has to play AND a "recency" requirement to be "tournament eligible" this season. Maybe 10 games minimum with at least three within the month before the tournament start date. Don't have somthing like that and you could have teams that played a very small number of games and haven't played in three months being in the tourney...Well rested, healed and well practiced heading into the tourney.

[Columbuseer]

I think Marlon Moore may play a big role. In the mec final he dominated on defense and offense. He neutralized McManus while playing great help defense. If u give him an open 3 he will hit it (50%) which creates huge matchup problems for bigs. If he stays out of foul trouble it could be the difference maker for a deep run.

[IUPbigINDIANS]

This year is such a crap shoot. Could depend on how the NCAA decides to seed the 8 regions. If they keep the regions as set, WLU is the odds on favorite to advance from the Atlantic to the Elite 8. They certainly wouldn't be a shoe in as both Fairmont and UC will have a little to say about it! IF the NCAA decides to do away with the regions, it will really be a crap shoot...It is not just what WLU's seeding is but also who else is seeded in their bracket.

Just my opinion here, but there needs to be a minimum of DII games that a school has to play AND a "recency" requirement to be "tournament eligible" this season. Maybe 10 games minimum with at least three within the month before the tournament start date. Don't have somthing like that and you could have teams that played a very small number of games and haven't played in three months being in the tourney...Well rested, healed and well practiced heading into the tourney.

If they are still playing by then ... they'd lump the Atlantic teams in with another Regional somewhere. They cut the field down to 48 teams this year which means there will only be 6 regional hosts instead of the normal 8 sites.

Although they are 'independent' ... I'd certainly count Mercyhurst as one of the best teams in the 'old Atlantic' region. We'll see if they can find enough games to qualify. They have three games in the books. They'll play Gannon twice. Salem twice. Bluefield twice. But, they still need a few more.

[boatcapt]

If they are still playing by then ... they'd lump the Atlantic teams in with another Regional somewhere. They cut the field down to 48 teams this year which means there will only be 6 regional hosts instead of the normal 8 sites.

Although they are 'independent' ... I'd certainly count Mercyhurst as one of the best teams in the 'old Atlantic' region. We'll see if they can find enough games to qualify. They have three games in the books. They'll play Gannon twice. Salem twice. Bluefield twice. But, they still need a few more.

Yes, the field has been cut to 48 but I've seen nothing from the NCAA to say how they are going to impliment this. In these Covid times were sports administrators and coaches are 1. Limiting games to a small geographic area, 2. Limiting travel costs as much as possible and 3. Facing a situation were the NCAA $'s given for travel likely will be reduced, I think the focus will be on limiting cross regional contact and travel to a bare minimum.

Six region bracket doesn't work unless you are giving two "regions" byes in the Elite 8 first round. That would give a pretty big rest advantage to the teams getting the byes as well as a free ticket to the Final Four.

Another option would be to seed top to bottom 1-48 and then run a single tourney. In these Covid times, doubt the NCAA is going to be too interested in running a single location 48 team DII tourney so that leaves some other construct. As they have "blown up" the regions in favor of top to bottom seeding, the only real option is home court games determined by the highest seed. This has some pretty big problems such as what do you do if you have a game with one team from West Virginia and another from California? What if the next round has the winner of that game traveling to Texas? What if you have two teams scheduled for a game from states that are not allowing such things...were do they play?

IMHO, it is more likely that the NCAA stays with the existing 8 regions with 6 teams per region. First "round" 3v6 and 4v5 games at the higher seed's home. Then a quickie two day Regional in "Regional Bubbles" with 12:00 tip for 1 seed v lowest remaining seed, through cleaning of the arena then a 6:00 tip for the 2 v second lowest seed game. Regional champ game at 2:00 the next day then off to the "Championship Bubble" for a maximum of three games over a three day (four day MAYBE) period. That limits travel in the regional rounds and limits the number of teams in the Championship Rounds. Do it quick, do it cheap and do it in a way that limits exposure.

Of course, we are talking about the NCAA here and there are forces that have been itching to do away with the regions. They may win the day and create some wacky system were the top team in each region is chosen to "host" the region with the other five teams in that region chosen from anywere in the nation! Or some silly construct like that!!

We'll see on Hurst. NCAA has said that they are reducing the field but no word on how/weather they are going to change the selection criteria. Games v Salem, Bluefield and Gannon will help them get to a particular number, but they are going to cost them in the PI category. Would a 10-1 Hurst team with 6 of it's W's over bad Salem and Bluefield teams be enough to trump a 500 MEC team that had played six games against nationally ranked WLU, Fairmont and Charleston? The selection criteria might say no but the NCAA has been known to put it's thumb on the playoff selection scale from time to time!

[boatcapt]

On the cusp of the season so I'll ask the question I ask every year, who will be WLU's "surprise" star? Talking about the guy that has been a bit player but steps up and becomes a top of the marque player night in and night out and/or a surprise true or redshirt freshman who was expected to sit the year out or be an end of the bench player who breaks out and becomes a integral part of the offense/defense?

My pick is Owen Hazelbaker. I see him being in the starting lineup night in and out, getting 20+ minutes a night and bosting his scoring average from 4.3 PPG to the low teens and I also see him stepping up his defensive game.

[Columbuseer]

On the cusp of the season so I'll ask the question I ask every year, who will be WLU's "surprise" star? Talking about the guy that has been a bit player but steps up and becomes a top of the marque player night in and night out and/or a surprise true or redshirt freshman who wapected to sit the year out or be an end of the bench player who breaks out and becomes a integral part of the offense/defense?

My pick is Owen Hazelbaker. I see him being in the starting lineup night in and out, getting 20+ minutes a night and bosting his scoring average from 4.3 PPG to the low teens and I also see him stepping up his defensive game.

Good choice. Another possibility is brice butler. As he acclimated to the college game he started influencing the game toward the end of the season. If he reduces his number of blocking fouls on defense he will be able to stay on the floor longer. I really have issues naming a 1st platoon after bolon, dyer, and yoakum. So many
starter level players that it may be situational based on the opponent. Facing an elite guard, use malik. Facing weak guards, use patrick, etc.

I can see many players averaging around 20 mins.