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  • Patrick is starting to distort defenses as he is getting double teams at top of the key. Big problem for opponents.
    Last edited by Columbuseer; 12-14-2021, 05:18 PM.

    Comment


    • During the run up to this season, we heard that the secret sause to WLU improving was increasing our number of quality possessions per game. Through 10 games thus far (approx 1/3 of the season), we are averaging 71.1 shots per game. To put that in context, last season we averaged 74.1. in 2019 74.5 and 71.8, 77.4 and 72.3 the years before. So we are actually shooting the fewest shots we have shot in the last 6+ seasons. Exaserbating that decline in shots is a decline in shooting percentage (.484) which is also the lowest in the last 6 seasons. Another issue is shot selection (2 vs 3). WLU is making 10.3 three point shots per game...Again, lowest in 6+ years.

      While I'm happy to be 9-1, I'm not happy with some of the recent performances. WLU used to be a team that on the vast majority of nights would impose it's will on our opponents...we were a shooting/pressing machine that would burry opponents under a blizzard of 3 point shots, pinpoint passes for 2's and easy buckets off turnovers driven by our press. Only occasionally would we have to change what we did to adjust to what our opponent was doing to us. This season so far, we've had to change and adjust to our opponents success far more than in the past. While the ability to adjust is a great ability to have, it certainly is not something a top tier team should have to do on a near nightly basis.

      Comment


      • Points per possession (ppp)is a more meaningful statistic than points per game. Before the last two games we had significantly improved to 1.20 ppp. But not quite at a typical 1.25 season average, yet.
        • Nearly all opponents are using the strategy of slowing the play to use as much of the shot clock as possible. That reduces points due to fewer possessions and keeps scores down.. Only an early blackout and a huge deficit forces opponents to depart from this strategy.
        • Wlu has been playing very strong, defensive teams - Daemen, up-j, uc, wvsu.
        • Opponents are focusing on stopping the three. Without the threat of rim runs, Zach has no open shots. We have to take what the defense gives us.
        • The wide swings in shooting is lowering averages. FT swings from 57% to 85+% for example.
        IMHO, we are 9-1 because we have the best half court defense in at least 10 years. Arguably the best press against good teams too. Last week we were in top 5 nationally in forced turnovers at 21 a game.
        What is amazing is that we can have abysmal offensive stats and still win against good teams. That defense is needed to make a deep tourney run.

        Imho areas for improvement
        • Reduce wide swings in shooting %
        • Improve offensive rebounding
        • More movement away from the ball
        • Need rapid improvement in players 8-12 to strengthen the second platoon

        Comment


        • Originally posted by Columbuseer View Post
          Points per possession (ppp)is a more meaningful statistic than points per game. Before the last two games we had significantly improved to 1.20 ppp. But not quite at a typical 1.25 season average, yet.
          • Nearly all opponents are using the strategy of slowing the play to use as much of the shot clock as possible. That reduces points due to fewer possessions and keeps scores down.. Only an early blackout and a huge deficit forces opponents to depart from this strategy.
          • Wlu has been playing very strong, defensive teams - Daemen, up-j, uc, wvsu.
          • Opponents are focusing on stopping the three. Without the threat of rim runs, Zach has no open shots. We have to take what the defense gives us.
          • The wide swings in shooting is lowering averages. FT swings from 57% to 85+% for example.
          IMHO, we are 9-1 because we have the best half court defense in at least 10 years. Arguably the best press against good teams too. Last week we were in top 5 nationally in forced turnovers at 21 a game.
          What is amazing is that we can have abysmal offensive stats and still win against good teams. That defense is needed to make a deep tourney run.

          Imho areas for improvement
          • Reduce wide swings in shooting %
          • Improve offensive rebounding
          • More movement away from the ball
          • Need rapid improvement in players 8-12 to strengthen the second platoon
          What were out PPP for the last game and what is our season PPP including the last two games?

          Comment


          • Here are game by game stats through dec 16 for WLU
            • Cumulative Points per possession through 10 games is 1.19.
            • WLU is holding teams to a cumulative PPP of 0.97
            • Teams are trying to keep possessions in the 70s
            • Wide variation in shooting percentages
            • With Dalton, Luke and Will not in the lineup, our offensive rebounding efficiency is good, but no longer incredible.
            Opponent Date Score FG FGA Pct Three FG Three FGA Three FG PCT FT FTA FT PCT Assist to Turnover Ratio Points Per FGA Points Per Possession Num Possessions OffReb Effic
            WINSTON-SALEM STATE 11/12/21 104-82 37 80 46.3% 9 25 36.0% 21 27 77.8% 2.11 1.30 1.25 83 41.9%
            EAST STROUDSBURG 11/13/21 108-93 38 75 50.7% 18 35 51.4% 14 21 66.7% 1.50 1.44 1.23 88 34.3%
            at Pitt.-Johnstown 11/17/21 95-83 33 70 47.1% 8 28 28.6% 21 28 75.0% 1.88 1.36 1.25 76 33.3%
            ALDERSON BROADDUS 11/20/21 100-70 39 77 50.6% 11 32 34.4% 11 20 55.0% 1.60 1.30 1.16 86 32.6%
            at Notre Dame (OH) 11/23/21 81-82 32 72 44.4% 8 23 34.8% 9 19 47.4% 1.80 1.13 1.03 79 34.4%
            DAEMEN 11/29/21 63-61 24 60 40.0% 6 24 25.0% 9 19 47.4% 1.14 1.05 0.88 72 28.6%
            at West Va. Wesleyan 12/01/21 120-72 44 81 54.3% 19 41 46.3% 13 14 92.9% 2.15 1.48 1.56 77 50.0%
            DAVIS & ELKINS 12/04/21 100-69 39 70 55.7% 5 19 26.3% 17 24 70.8% 1.82 1.43 1.20 83 30.0%
            CHARLESTON 12/08/21 89-78 29 61 47.5% 10 20 50.0% 21 32 65.6% 1.50 1.46 1.16 77 24.2%
            at West Virginia State 12/13/21 86-84 29 65 44.6% 9 26 34.6% 19 22 86.4% 0.75 1.32 1.12 77 26.3%
            West Liberty 946 344 711 48.4% 103 273 37.7% 155 226 68.6% 1.59 1.33 1.19 798 34.2%
            Opponents 774 279 594 47.0% 67 170 39.4% 149 213 70.0% 0.55 1.30 0.97 794 26.8%
            Last edited by Columbuseer; 12-17-2021, 12:11 PM.

            Comment


            • I've felt that the sweat spot for WLU is shooting 40% from 3 and 60% "inside" from 2. Beyond that they need to take 75 total shots with 25 from 3 and 50 inside. Hit those two metrics and that gives us 90 points from the field. Add 10 points from the line and WLU hits 100 and becomes very hard to beat. Don't hit those numbers, and we have to scramble. This season, far too often we haven't hit those numbers.

              Last season we averaged 74.2 shots per game with 40% of those shots coming from 3 and 60% inside from 2. This season we are averaging 71.1 shots per game with 38% from 3 and 62% from 2. Seem like small numbers but that's a 5 PPG difference...add to that the 2 PPG difference in our average made free throws per game and comfortable wins become a lot less comfortable...Which is what we are seeing so far this year.

              Last edited by boatcapt; 12-17-2021, 08:19 PM.

              Comment


              • Originally posted by boatcapt View Post
                I've felt that the sweat spot for WLU is shooting 40% from 3 and 60% "inside" from 2. Beyond that they need to take 75 total shots with 25 from 3 and 50 inside. Hit those two metrics and that gives us 90 points from the field. Add 10 points from the line and WLU hits 100 and becomes very hard to beat. Don't hit those numbers, and we have to scramble. This season, far too often we haven't hit those numbers.
                That is a really high bar.
                There was only 1 game where wlu had 40% threes, 25 3 fga and 75 fga (esu). Very hard to get 75 shots unless one is killing it on the offensive glass and/or committing very few turnovers. Especially when teams are taking the air out of the ball and spreading their defense to limit the three.

                less than 10 schools currently shoot 40% threes and have 25 3fga a game (don't know if they meet 75 fga).

                one stat that might be useful to consider is points per fga, which is total pts divided by fga.
                That incorporates fts, and-ones, threes and twos. Getting an and-one rather than a three fg has the added benefit of drawing a foul.

                Hitting 40% of at least 25 three fgas will definitely result in a good pts/fga stat. However, wlu has achieved very high pts per fga without meeting that metric. See chart in earlier post.
                Last edited by Columbuseer; 12-17-2021, 08:32 PM.

                Comment


                • Originally posted by Columbuseer View Post

                  That is a really high bar.
                  There was only 1 game where wlu had 40% threes, 25 3 fga and 75 fga (esu). Very hard to get 75 shots unless one is killing it on the offensive glass and/or committing very few turnovers. Especially when teams are taking the air out of the ball and spreading their defense to limit the three.

                  less than 10 schools currently shoot 40% threes and have 25 3fga a game (don't know if they meet 75 fga).

                  one stat that might be useful to consider is points per fga, which is total pts divided by fga.
                  That incorporates fts, and-ones, threes and twos. Getting an and-one rather than a three fg has the added benefit of drawing a foul.

                  Hitting 40% of at least 25 three fgas will definitely result in a good pts/fga stat. However, wlu has achieved very high pts per fga without meeting that metric. See chart in earlier post.
                  WLU eclipsed 40% on 3's nine times in the shortened season last year and 20 times the year before, so it's not THAT rare...54% of the time over the last two years they have eclipsed 40%. 26 times over 75 shots (plus 5 times at 74) over the last two years (48%), so again not really a rare ocurance.

                  Granted it's only 10 games, but thus far this year we have shot 40% or better on 3's three times (30%) and taken 75+ shots four times (40%).

                  In the off season, Ben said the secret to WLU improving was more possessions (which logically should equate in more shots).

                  Over the last three seasons WLU has gone from 1.37 (19-20), 1.36 (20-21) to 1.33 (this season thus far) in points per FGA. So again, a decline. Fewer shots and a greater % of two pointers.

                  I know I might be concerned over nothing as we are 9-1 and there is plenty of season for us to "get back to normal," but up to now, I'm a little concerned (9-1 record not withstanding).
                  Last edited by boatcapt; 12-17-2021, 10:17 PM.

                  Comment


                  • Originally posted by boatcapt View Post

                    ...

                    Granted it's only 10 games, but thus far this year we have shot 40% or better on 3's three times (30%) and taken 75+ shots four times (40%).

                    In the off season, Ben said the secret to WLU improving was more possessions (which logically should equate in more shots).

                    Over the last three seasons WLU has gone from 1.37 (19-20), 1.36 (20-21) to 1.33 (this season thus far) in points per FGA. So again, a decline. Fewer shots and a greater % of two pointers.

                    I know I might be concerned over nothing as we are 9-1 and there is plenty of season for us to "get back to normal," but up to now, I'm a little concerned (9-1 record not withstanding).
                    Maybe i misunderstood your original premise. I thought the metric was 40% 3pt % and 25 three fga and 75 fga.; all three conditions had to be met. Is that correct? If so, there may be fewer games that meet all 3 conditions.

                    The decline in pts per fga from 1.37 to 1.33 is a difference of .04 pts per fga. Over 75 fga, that is a difference of 75*.04 = 3 pts per game. One more three or and one would make up difference. We are winning by an average of 17 pts (#14 in usa) so it is not a major factor, compared to shooting % woes in some games.

                    More possessions is definitely a major factor. It depends on pace of play and turnovers. Given teams are slowing the pace on offense and defending the three, we have to rely on forcing more turnovers. WLU is currently #4 in usa at 20.5 forced turnovers per game

                    Comment


                    • Has anything been said about Yoakum? He’s been off crutches for a while now

                      Comment


                      • Originally posted by Columbuseer View Post

                        Maybe i misunderstood your original premise. I thought the metric was 40% 3pt % and 25 three fga and 75 fga.; all three conditions had to be met. Is that correct? If so, there may be fewer games that meet all 3 conditions.

                        The decline in pts per fga from 1.37 to 1.33 is a difference of .04 pts per fga. Over 75 fga, that is a difference of 75*.04 = 3 pts per game. One more three or and one would make up difference. We are winning by an average of 17 pts (#14 in usa) so it is not a major factor, compared to shooting % woes in some games.

                        More possessions is definitely a major factor. It depends on pace of play and turnovers. Given teams are slowing the pace on offense and defending the three, we have to rely on forcing more turnovers. WLU is currently #4 in usa at 20.5 forced turnovers per game
                        The metrics I listed are those that make us very tough to beat. Individually and collectively, they are well within our ability to meet every game. If we don't meat them, we become an easier team to beat. Doesnt mean we lose every game we play just that the scores are closer than they should be, or we have to pull out gut check wins.

                        People often want a simple answer to things when more often than not,, the problem is complex.. WLU is a case in point this year.. Even though they are 9-1, somthing seems to be amiss. But when you look at individual stats, you don't see a big difference. But when you start looking at the collection of stats, you pretty much see small declines across the board...collectively, they add up to a relatively significant production decline. I guess the silver lining to a small decline in a category is that it is relatively easy to "fix"...the black cloud is that we seem to have quite a few small declines that we need to "fix" at the same time.

                        Comment


                        • Great all around win, 108-74. WLU played a total game from the opening tip until garbage time with about 5 to play. Great ball movement on the offensive end, draining 3 on cue, pin point passes...many of which were the "extra" pass variety. Defensively many pressure induced steals and turnovers.

                          Denbow is MONEY from the corner.
                          Top notch games by Freshmen Powell and Web who both looked really comfortable.
                          Shout out to Watson also. He didn't stuff the stat sheet but he seemed to play with control and poise and made a number of really smooth passes.

                          At one point in the second half we had 5 freshmen on the court and we didn't really miss a beat.

                          The announcers talked about Yoakum. Said he had a preseason knee injury that he was rehabing. Didnt say when he would be back but they didn't say he was done for the year. Just a guess, but I'd think after the Christmas break.
                          Last edited by boatcapt; 12-19-2021, 06:50 PM.

                          Comment


                          • Interesting comment by announcers at game today. Said flu had run through the team during last week and they were not at full strength for previous game on Monday.
                            That fact makes their win over wvsu very impressive and might explain some of the subpar play.

                            Comment


                            • Originally posted by Columbuseer View Post
                              Interesting comment by announcers at game today. Said flu had run through the team during last week and they were not at full strength for previous game on Monday.
                              That fact makes their win over wvsu very impressive and might explain some of the subpar play.
                              Might also explain why McKinney didn't start and only played sparing minutes against WVSU. I had been wondering what might have prompted that shift. In retrospect (now that everybody seems to be healthy), I'm glad it was illness and not that McKinney was in coach's dog house (which would have seemed out of character for him).

                              Comment


                              • Originally posted by Columbuseer View Post
                                Interesting comment by announcers at game today. Said flu had run through the team during last week and they were not at full strength for previous game on Monday.
                                That fact makes their win over wvsu very impressive and might explain some of the subpar play.
                                W.Va. State's baffling up-and-down play continued in Hawaii this weekend. After barely squeezing past a 3-7 Hawaii Pacific team, 76-74, on Friday, they blasted No. 11-ranked Embry-Riddle (Fla.), 87-69, late Sunday night - leading by as many as 27 points in the second half. No question they have the talent to be a problem for anybody on any given night. Just hope they don't decide to start stringing those nights together. West Liberty caught them on one of those nights and were fortunate to escape unscathed.

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