September 19th, 2006 12:00am
It can be one of the most difficult decisions a coach has to make: You’re down three points, time is winding down, and it’s 4th-and-goal from the 1-yard line. Do you play for overtime by kicking the field goal or do you roll the dice and try to punch it in and win the game?
That’s exactly the position that Saginaw Valley head coach Randy Awrey found himself in last Saturday against Ferris State. His Cardinals had rallied from an 18-point halftime deficit to within 26-23 and had the football in the same position I explained above. Awrey gambled by trying to punch it in… and lost.
Whether it was the right decision or not is irrelevant at this point. The bottom line is that SVSU lost the game and now the Cardinals don’t have much room for error if they plan making another postseason appearance later this fall. SVSU will attempt to rebound against an improved Northern Michigan team this week.
More Upsets
Two other teams that had high aspirations entering the season also suffered tough losses last week: Pittsburg State and Delta State. The Gorillas had a near repeat of the embarrassing blowout loss to Central Missouri State last fall. Missouri Western scored 38 first half points and then marched 83 yards on the first drive of the second half to put away the Gorillas, 48-35. Missouri Western (now 3-0) will be riding high into a huge game with rival Northwest Missouri State this week.
DSU lost quarterback Scott Eyester to a 4th-quarter injury-- and then lost the game. Eyester’s backup, Devin Goodwin, threw an interception that Henderson State defensive back Divon Hughes returned 43 yards for a touchdown to tie it at 13 and the Reddies eventually pulled off the upset, 16-13 in overtime. Anyone who watched this game could clearly see that the highly touted Statesmen don’t look like a playoff team at this point.
Last but not least, we had another notable D-II win over an I-AA opponent last week. Central Washington went on the road to neighboring Eastern Washington, and despite four turnovers, pulled out a 21-14 win. This game should give the Wildcats a big boost of confidence as they get back into NCC play this week.
Cundiff Resigns
Texas A&M Kingsville head coach Richard Cundiff announced his resignation last week, effective at the end of the season. Cundiff is in his seventh season as the Javelinas’ head coach and has been at the school for 21 years. The Javelinas have struggled over the last two seasons and are just 1-2 this fall, but expect this job to draw an impressive list of candidates once it officially comes open.
Sack City
Two of Division II’s top defenses have been terrorizing opposing quarterbacks so far this season. Grand Valley State recorded 10 sacks against St. Joseph’s last week and now has 19 through three games. Senior defensive end Michael McFadden tied an all-divisions record with a sack in his 17th consecutive game.
North Dakota’s defense also racked up 10 sacks last week against Winona State and now has 20 in the first three games. Four UND players have at least four sacks, including senior defensive end Jared Enger, who recorded all four of his in the first quarter against the Warriors.
I Take it Back
Last week I lauded Southeast Oklahoma State for finally winning a big game by going on the road and beating Tarleton State. Well, the Savage Storm laid a big fat egg against Abilene Christian in their home opener on Saturday, getting hammered 51-14. Maybe the lesson here is that it’s easier to be the hunter than the hunted. This is something all programs trying to reach an elite status must learn: you’re going to take everyone’s best shot every week and you’d better show up ready to play. It will be interesting to see how SOSU rebounds from this.
Game of the Week
Missouri Western (3-0) @ Northwest Missouri State (3-0)
This match up is a good old-fashioned back yard brawl. The two schools are just 40 minutes apart and don’t particularly care for each other. Add the fact that NWMSU is the 2nd-ranked team in the country and the Griffons may have their best team in school history, and this game will be a very intense one on Saturday.
One big key this week for each team is controlling the line of scrimmage. The Griffons have a talented and physical defensive front that will give the NWMSU offensive line its biggest test of the season. When MWSU has the football, the Bearcat defense will try to make it very difficult for Jeremiah White to find any running room.
What this game will come down to is turnovers and the Bearcats have been much better at taking care of the football so far this year (just two turnovers versus nine for the Griffons). MWSU has the talent and the playmakers to win this game if they can be the team that makes the fewest mistakes. But with the Bearcats playing at home and their track record of playing error free football, that’s who I’m picking. Northwest Missouri 24 Missouri Western 17
Other Top Games
Henderson State (2-1) @ West Alabama (3-0)
Who would have guessed that these two teams would be playing in a key early season Gulf South match up? The Reddies captured one of their biggest victories in school history last week in knocking off Delta State while UWA has used its powerful new rushing attack to cruise to a 3-0 start. I like the Tigers to win this game, because they are playing at home and I’m not all that confident in HSU’s ability to move the football. West Alabama 27 Henderson State 17
Arkansas Tech (3-0) @ Valdosta State (2-0)
ATU is entering a brutal 3-game stretch (VSU, North Alabama, and Delta State) that will determine whether this team is a legit threat in the GSC or not. As usual, the Wonder Boys appear to not do anything spectacular-- they just play solid all around football. The problem is this: a team needs to be better than just solid to beat VSU on the road. Plus, the Blazers have had a week off to game plan for this contest and work out any early season kinks. Valdosta State 28 Arkansas Tech 18
Augustana (3-0) @ Nebraska-Omaha (2-1)
The Vikings are currently riding a 6-game winning streak (longest since 1959) dating back to last year’s 50-24 loss to the Mavericks. The key to this game will be Augustana’s ability to slow down a suddenly potent UNO rushing attack (414 yards last week). Viking quarterback Tommy Flygger will keep the Vikings in it, but in the end the running combo of UNO quarterback Zach Miller and running back Kyle Kasperbauer will be too much to overcome. Nebraska-Omaha 30 Augustana 20
Central Washington (2-1) @ Minnesota-Duluth (2-1)
This game is critical because the loser will be 0-2 in the NCC and likely out of the conference championship and playoff races. The two teams are similar in that they have solid defenses and talented sophomore quarterbacks. I think that CWU is playing better football so far this year, and despite having to travel half-way across the country, the Wildcats will be a confident bunch coming off of last week’s big win. Central Washington 23 Minnesota-Duluth 17
Elizabeth City State (3-0) @ Newberry (3-0)
As our own CIAA columnist Bonnita Best so aptly pointed out in her column this week, the CIAA is once again struggling in non-conference play and is just 1-6 against the SAC (Newberry’s conference) so far this season. The CIAA needs to start winning some of these types of games if it wants to gain some respect. ECSU has done a nice job defensively so far this year, but Indian quarterback Josh Stepp’s play has been off the charts this season and he is surrounded by weapons. A Newberry win would set up a huge game with Carson-Newman next week. Newberry 33 ECSU 20
Missouri Southern (3-0) @ Pittsburg State (2-1)
Just like MWSU and NWMSU, this is another backyard rivalry where no love is lost between the teams. The Lions have not beaten the Gorillas since 1993 but should enter this game with some confidence based on what has transpired so far this season. The bottom line though: I just think that the Gorillas have too much offense to lose this game. Pittsburg State wins, 45-24.
South Dakota (3-0) @ St. Cloud State (2-1)
Despite all of the Coyotes’ success over the past couple of years, USD has not played well on the road: SCSU beat USD 21-17 in St. Cloud last season. I expect this to be a very good game, but I don’t think the Huskies have found an identity yet on offense and the presence of Stephan Logan gives USD the big play threat that gives them the edge. South Dakota 24 St. Cloud State 21
Ashland (1-2) @ Northwood (3-0)
Every game from here on out is critical for the Eagles... another loss and AU can probably kiss its playoff chances goodbye. This is also a big game for Northwood because the Timberwolves are beginning a four-game stretch that includes Grand Valley and Saginaw Valley. Both teams have very good defenses, but I like Ashland to win for this reason: NU has been terrible throwing the football this year (just 31 yards per game) and the Eagles have too much speed on defense to just run the ball all day if you can’t keep them honest. Ashland 23 Northwood 14
Mailbag
[Q] Now that Shepherd has convincingly beaten C.W. Post, how far do you think they can go?
Brad
[A] I think Shepherd has the kind of team that can finally challenge for the Northeast Region title. The Rams play outstanding defense and since it doesn’t appear that there is a powerhouse PSAC team to deal with this year, Shepherd should have a better than even chance against about anyone in the region. I have a sneaking suspicion that the Northeast will come down to a game between Bloomsburg and Shepherd, which I think would be a very interesting match up.
Beyond that, I don’t give Shepherd (or anyone from the Northeast) much of a chance of winning a national championship. When you get to the semifinals or beyond you’re dealing with fully funded powerhouse programs that have more depth and talent than the Rams. Maybe Shepherd could pull off a major upset and reach the championship game, but winning two such games isn’t likely.
I think the major challenge Shepherd will face over the rest of the regular season is staying sharp and improving as the season goes on. The Rams likely won’t be challenged much in the WVIAC and without anyone testing them; it can be difficult to work on weaknesses.
[Q] What’s the deal with Winona State? Everyone was saying how they were an up and coming program a couple of years ago and they got blown out again by UND. Also, does the NSIC deserve a team in the playoffs this year?
Matt
[A] Winona State is not as good as they were in 2003 or 2004. Part of that is just the ebb and flow of college football: it’s difficult to stay on top all of the time. That said, I did expect the Warriors to be a much better team this season than what they have shown so far. I think the major problem WSU has is that they are lacking the big play guys on offense that they have consistently had over the past few years. Without a full complement of scholarships (I believe WSU is over 20 for the first time this season), the Warriors have used their unorthodox offense and those one or two big stars on offense to be the equalizer against some of the top teams.
The bottom line for a school like Winona State is that they have to continue to increase scholarship money to consistently compete with the top teams in the country. WSU is well coached and sits in a pretty advantageous area when it comes to drawing talent, but with half or two thirds the scholarship money of the other top teams in the country, it is nearly impossible for WSU to become a national championship caliber program.
About the NSIC deserving a playoff bid, I feel only three teams still have a shot right now: Winona State, Concordia-St. Paul, and Bemidji State. I think the only way one of those teams deserves to be in is if they run the table in the conference, and even then, a playoff berth might come at the expense of a more deserving team. The NSIC just doesn’t have that dominant team like WSU in 2003 or 2004 or Minnesota-Duluth in 2002 (when they were still members of the conference).
Email
Have a comment or criticism? Want a question answered in the mailbag? Click here to email Bob.