October 24th, 2006 12:00pm
If we had a frequently asked questions section on D2football.com, number one on the list would be: "How does the playoff system work?" The problem with answering that question is that it’s a moving target. The criteria for playoff selection seems to change subtlety each year, and by the time writers like myself have it all figured out near the end of the regular season, something gets changed again for the following year.
So, in response to numerous requests from readers to help sort it all out, this is what I’m going to do: Rather than trying to add a long, convoluted explanation of the playoff system to my weekly column, I’m going to just write a separate playoff primer in the next couple of days. That way the people that care about the nuts and bolts of the playoff system can read it, and those that don’t care won’t have to read through a bunch of technical number crunching in this column. Look for that playoff primer to appear on the website in the next few days.
Incredible Defense
The Shepherd defense posted its fifth shutout of the season last Saturday, and has allowed just 13 total points all the year (an average of 1.8 points per game). The interesting thing is that the Rams aren’t as statistically dominating as one might assume for a defense that is giving up so few points.
The Rams are very good against both the run and pass, but not completely dominant against either. And they’ve recorded just 12 sacks and allow a 33% conversion rate on third down - neither of those numbers are typical signs of a completely dominating defense. Maybe the biggest factor in incredibly low number of points allowed is the Ram offense: Shepherd’s strong rushing attack creates good field position and keeps opposing offenses on the sideline.
In case you’re wondering what the Division II record is for the least points allowed in a season, the Rams don’t have a chance of breaking that record. In 1960, Albany State went the entire regular season (nine games) without allowing a single point.
Look for the Rams to keep this pace up for the rest of the regular season. Of Shepherd’s final three opponents, only West Liberty State currently averages more than 16 points per game. We may have to wait until the playoffs to determine how the 2006 Shepherd defense ranks with some of the other top units in D-II.
Top Games this Week
Valdosta State (6-1) @ North Alabama (7-0)
Think this game isn’t big? The Blazers (in ’02 and ’04) and the Lions (in ’03 and ’05) have captured the last four Southeast Region championships between the two of them. I think the winner of this game becomes the favorite to once again represent the region in the semifinals.
I will cut right to the chase and say that I like UNA to win this game. The Lions prevailed in a huge road test against Delta State last week and VSU has not played great football the last two weeks. The Lions haven’t allowed more than 14 points in any game this season and I don’t see VSU being able to put up the necessary points to win. The other factor that I see giving UNA an advantage is that they are so balanced in all facets of the game (offense, defense, and special teams). North Alabama 24 Valdosta State 16
Tarleton State (4-3) @ Abilene Christian (7-0)
After losing the first three games of the season by a combined total of eight points, Tarleton State has quietly gotten on a roll and developed into the type of team most people thought they would be in the preseason. And with a number seven ranking in the Southwest Region, the Texans are still definitely in the playoff picture. Plus, this game features the only two unbeaten teams still standing in the LSC South Division, so a conference title is also on the line.
This is a good time for TSU to be catching ACU with the Wildcats in line for a possible letdown after last week’s big win over West Texas A&M. But the problem is that the Texans are running into a very talented Wildcat team that I think may be the best team in the LSC in several years. TSU will keep in close for a while, but ACU’s overall talent and the right arm of Billy Malone will prevail in the end. Abilene Christian 31 Tarleton State 20.
West Chester (5-3) @ East Stroudsburg (6-2)
This game features the last two Northeast Region champions. Neither team is as talented as the year that they won the region (WCU in ’04 and ESU last year), but both teams are very good offensively.
I like ESU to win this game because the Golden Rams have been porous defensively so far this season, while the Warriors are very much improved over their last three games. Look for ESU quarterback Jim Terwilliger and receiver Evan Prall to slice up the WCU secondary. East Stroudsburg 31 West Chester 24
Grand Valley (8-0) @ Ferris State (6-2)
This game is a true rivalry. The two schools aren’t very far apart and don’t care for each other all that much. GVSU has, of course, had the upper hand against FSU recently, but it wasn’t that long ago (mid to late 90’s) that the Bulldogs were the dominant program in the GLIAC. There is quite a history in this series.
FSU’s resurgence this year is due to a much improved offense. The Bulldogs have scored at least 26 points in seven of eight games this season and are very balanced between the run and the pass. The problem FSU is going to run into, however, is that the GVSU defense is a whole different animal. Despite being a bit banged up, the Lakers are fast and disruptive and it will take a perfectly played game by FSU to stay in it. I don’t see that happening - GVSU is just too good. Grand Valley 28 Ferris State 13
Wayne State (5-3) @ Northwood (6-1)
Both teams are coming off very disappointing losses. Northwood turned the ball over six times in their 48-7 loss to Grand Valley while Wayne State saw its playoff hopes likely ended in a 39-14 loss to Indianapolis. The big key to this game is if either team still is suffering any sort of letdown from last week.
Two years ago when the Warriors visited NU, they allowed an incredible 727 rushing yards in a 70-3 loss. This game will be much different, with freshman sensation Joique Bell (1484 rushing yards and 17 rushing touchdowns) giving the Warriors a legit shot of winning this game. But the Timberwolves are still a bit too strong overall and I expect the NU rushing attack to eventually take control. Northwood 31 Wayne State 17
Minnesota-Duluth (5-3) @ North Dakota (6-1)
Former UND defensive coordinator Bubba Schweigert leads his Bulldogs against the Fighting Sioux for the third time in his two plus seasons as the UMD head coach. Schweigert has yet to pick up a win against the program he was a part of for 15 seasons.
UMD has two major problems going into this game: The Bulldogs have a young, banged up offensive line and quarterback Ted Schlafke has a leg injury that limits his mobility. Not a good situation to be in against a UND pass rush that has recorded 26 sacks already this season. Schweigert will have his team focused and ready to play, but UND is too tough to beat in the Alerus Center. North Dakota 27 Minnesota-Duluth 16
American International (5-2) @ C.W. Post (6-2)
AIC can create quite a mess in the NE-10 race with a win on Saturday. If the Yellowjackets can beat Post, there could be as many as five teams sitting atop the conference with two league losses.
AIC’s strategy is simple - give the ball to Marlon Beckles (154.7 rushing yards per game) and play solid defense (just 15.1 points allowed per game). But despite their poor showing against Southern Connecticut State last week, the Pioneers are a more talented team overall and should be plenty ornery coming off a loss. C.W. Post 28 American International 17
Mailbag
[Q] If you had to pick the teams to be in the playoffs today, who would you pick from each region?
Jim
[A] Well, first of all, I would just go ahead and grant a playoff berth to every conference champion because I think that with 24 playoff spots there is plenty of room for every league to be represented. Plus, guaranteeing each league a playoff spot up front and doing away with earned access would be good because it would get rid of the idea that a team is getting a playoff spot "stolen" from them.
Given that, this is how I would seed each of the four regions at this point:
Northeast
Bloomsburg
Shepherd
California
Indiana
East Stroudsburg
C.W. Post
Southeast
North Alabama
Newberry
North Carolina Central
Valdosta State
Delta State
Lane
Northwest
Grand Valley
Nebraska-Omaha
South Dakota
North Dakota
Northwood
Bemidji State
Southwest
Northwest Missouri State
Abilene Christian
Missouri Western
Chadron State
West Texas A&M
Pittsburg State
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