November 14th, 2006 12:00am
What a wild weekend that was in Division II football. There were upsets, near upsets, fluke plays, and a six overtime contest. Some of the highlights:
-North Alabama cemented itself as the favorite in the Gulf South Conference and Southeast Region with a thrilling 31-24 overtime win against Valdosta State. The Lions do face one more test this year when they must travel to rival West Alabama in the season finale, but it looks likely that UNA will finish the regular season unbeaten for the second time in four years.
-I wrote in my column just three weeks ago how South Dakota might have saved its season with a late game-winning drive against Central Washington. But the Coyotes suffered what might end up being a devastating loss against Minnesota State last Saturday. Holding a one-point lead in the waning moments, the Coyotes blocked a MSU field goal attempt - only to see the Mavericks' Jeff Fielder recover the ball and take it 23 yards for the game-winning touchdown. Adding even further to the shock factor from this game was the fact that this was MSU's first conference win in nearly two years. Maverick quarterback Ben King set school records with 63 pass attempts, 40 completions, and 505 passing yards.
-St. Joseph's and Fairmont State battled the weather and each other through a D-II record-tying six overtimes before SJC finally prevailed, 19-11. Regulation ended with the scored knotted at zero and both teams combining for just 160 yards of offense. The Pumas missed a pair of short potential game-winning field goals in overtime periods three and five before finally prevailing.
-Special teams errors cost Abilene Christian dearly in the Wildcats' first loss of the season to Tarleton State. TSU blocked a punt which led to a Texan touchdown early in the game and a pair of missed extra point attempts by ACU in the fourth quarter allowed TSU kicker Paul Williams to win it with a 32-yard field goal. After a 0-3 start to the season, Tarleton State now sits alone on top of the LSC South standings and if the season ended today, the Texans would be in the playoffs.
More Falling Records
East Stroudsburg's Jimmy Terwilliger became just the third player in NCAA history (and first in Division II) to surpass 15,000 yards of total offense in his team's 49-28 loss to West Chester. Terwilliger will most likely not win the Harlon Hill Trophy for a second consecutive year, but obviously the career statistics he is putting up are amazing.
Another Shutout
I talked last week about the incredible year the Shepherd defense is having. Well, they did it again last Saturday, posting their sixth shutout of the season (and fourth straight) with a 41-0 win over West Virginia Wesleyan. Opponents are averaging just 1.6 points a game against the Rams. I can't wait until the playoffs when we can see how this defense performs against a big-time Division II offense.
Top Games This Week
Pittsburg State (8-1) vs Northwest Missouri State (9-0)
This is obviously one of the top two or three rivalries in all of Division II and the venue the teams play at makes this game even more special. They will square off for the fifth consecutive year at Arrowhead Stadium, home to the Kansas City Chiefs. Expect around 25,000 fans to be on hand to take in the game.
For the past couple of years the Gorillas have been carried by their offense and that is the case again this fall. PSU leads the nation in scoring (50.3 points per game) and everything is centered on senior running back Germaine Race. Race is arguably the most talented offensive player in all of D-II. He has plenty of help with a talented offensive line, receiver Brian Pray, and freshman quarterback Geno Waters (203 quarterback rating) all chipping in.
Northwest is also a good team offensively, but the Bearcats have a big problem this week. Running back Xavier Omon is likely out until the playoffs with an injury and his backup, Laron Council, broke his leg in last week's game and is done for the season. NWMSU may have to rely more than usual on the right arm of quarterback Josh Matthews to move the football.
But I still think NWMSU has to be the big favorite in this game and this is why: There is a night and day difference between these two teams when it comes to defense. The Bearcats have one of the top two or three defenses in all of D-II while the Gorillas have struggled to stop even the weaker teams at times this season. If PSU is going to have a chance, its offense will have to control the ball and the clock and keep its defense off the field. The Gorillas will score some points, but not enough to overcome their defensive deficiencies, especially against a team the quality of NWMSU. Northwest Missouri State 31 Pittsburg State 24
Nebraska-Omaha (7-1) @ South Dakota (7-2)
There are so many factors at play in this game that it's very hard to sort it all out. USD is coming off the shocking loss to Minnesota State while UNO did not look good at all in last week's 21-17 win over St. Cloud State and may have to once again play without quarterback Zach Miller this week. Plus, the heart and soul of the UNO defense-- leading tackler Bobby Danenhauer-- was lost to a season-ending injury against St. Cloud State. The winner of this game also likely clinches a playoff spot and controls its own destiny in the NCC title race. And, to top it all off, you have the fact that the Coyotes obliterated the Mavs in the Dakotadome last season, 59-14. There are so many things going on that it's hard to put finger on exactly what will happen.
So, in cases like this, I go with my gut instinct and this is what I think will happen: South Dakota will win this game, and win it big. The Coyotes will be extremely focused after last week's loss and they know they have to come through with a trip to Grand Forks to face North Dakota looming next week. The Mavericks have won three straight close conference games and the law of averages (plus the fact that injuries are now a problem) means that UNO is due for a loss. South Dakota 32 Nebraska-Omaha 17
East Stroudsburg (6-3) @ Bloomsburg (7-1)
There is a pretty intense rivalry between these two PSAC East Division schools and what transpired last year has only added to the interest. BU knocked off ESU in the regular season on the way to capturing the regular season PSAC East crown, but the Warriors returned the favor in the playoffs, ruining the Huskies' undefeated season.
ESU is a good enough football team to beat Bloomsburg, especially if Husky star running back Jamar Brittingham isn't 100% healthy. But the Warriors did not look good in their loss to West Chester last week and I think BU's grinding rushing attack will wear down the ESU defense and keep Jim Terwilliger off the field. Bloomsburg 23 East Stroudsburg 17
Wingate (7-2) @ Carson-Newman (6-3)
There is quite a role reversal going on in this game. C-N is out of the SAC title race and most likely the playoff picture, but can possibly spoil Wingate's attempt at a first ever D-II postseason appearance.
This game will come down to two things: The arm of Wingate quarterback Anthony Metzelaars, and the Bulldogs' ability to overcome the "Mossy Creek Mystique" that the Eagles have held over opponents for many, many years. The Eagles aren't very good offensively this season, but I think they can slow down Metzelaars and the Bulldogs just enough to pull this one out at home. Carson-Newman 21 Wingate 19
Shepherd (9-0) @ West Liberty State (8-2)
Believe it or not, WLSC could tie Shepherd atop the WVIAC standings with a win, but since they aren't even in the top 12 in the Northeast Region right now, it's looking unlikely that the Hilltoppers could make a run at the playoffs.
The Rams will give up some points in this game - I feel pretty comfortable in predicting that. But still, Shepherd is just too good all the way around and should be able to control the game with their defense and rushing attack. I would not be surprised to see a tight game into the second half, but the more talented Rams will eventually prevail. Shepherd 21 West Liberty 10
Saginaw Valley (5-3) @ Grand Valley (9-0)
This has been the game of the year in the GLIAC over the past few seasons, but has obviously lost some of its luster with SVSU having a sub-par season. But this is still a great rivalry and it should be a pretty intense game.
I expect the Lakers to roll in this game for this reason: The Cardinals are basically just an average team this year. They don't have much of a rushing attack (just 94 yards per game) and the SVSU defense has not performed nearly as well this fall as I expected they would. Randy Awrey will have his team ready to play, but GVSU is too good. Grand Valley 28 Saginaw Valley 13
Johnson C. Smith (7-2) @ North Carolina Central (9-0)
NCCU has already clinched the title in the CIAA's Western Division and will be playing in the league championship game on November 11. But the JCSU comes into this game with plenty to play for with a playoff appearance still a slight possibility. Plus, the Golden Bulls could complete the ultimate rags to riches story with a win over the powerful Eagles-- JCSU entered this season on a 23-game losing streak.
The Golden Bulls have the defensive talent to stay in the game with NCCU. But JCSU isn't nearly as explosive offensively as the Eagles and it's hard to imagine that they score enough points to pull off the upset. North Carolina Central 26 Johnson C. Smith 10
Elizabeth City State (8-1) @ Virginia Union (7-2)
The winner of this game grabs the CIAA East title and not only gets a shot at North Carolina Central in next week's CIAA title game, but also keeps its playoff hopes alive (especially in ECSU's case). The loser might be turning in gear next week instead of practicing. This is the game of the year so far in the CIAA East.
I like the Vikings to win this game because they are much better defensively (just 11 points allowed each game versus 24 allowed by VUU). ECSU is also very efficient throwing the football (quarterback Curtis Rich has thrown 19 touchdown passes and just three interceptions) and the Vikings have the ability to spread the ball around to several different playmakers on offense. Elizabeth City State 24 Virginia Union 16
Ferris State (6-3) @ Northwood (8-1)
These two teams have taken turns getting whipped by GVSU the past couple of weeks, but they will have to regroup quickly if they still have designs on the playoffs. For the Bulldogs, this game is a must win situation, while NU also needs a win to maintain a comfortable hold on a playoff spot.
I think this will be a very good game, mainly because the NU defense hasn't been nearly as dominating lately as they were early in the season. FSU is good enough offensively this year to put some points on the board against the Timberwolves, but in the end, NU will pull this one out at home. Northwood 27 Ferris State 24
C.W. Post (7-2) @ Merrimack (6-3)
After a rough start, Merrimack has won five straight games and as the eighth ranked team in the Northeast Region, the Warriors still have a shot at the playoffs. Plus, a win over the Pioneers would push Merrimack into a tie (along with Post and possibly several other teams) for the lead in the Northeast-10. Obviously, the game is also huge for the Pioneers because of the conference title and playoff implications.
I like the Pioneers in this game for two reasons: One, they play better defense. And two, they have much more experience with being involved in critical games such as this one. C. W. Post 21 Merrimack 17
Mailbag
[Q] I just want to call you out on your hypocrisy. In your midseason column you said that no NSIC should make the playoff this year and then last week you said that you would pick Bemidji State to be there. How do you explain the change in your position?
Chad
[A] I didn't change my position at all. When I said in the midseason that no NSIC team should be in the postseason, I was basing that opinion entirely on the playoff system we have in place now. An NSIC team would have to finish in the top 10 in the final regional poll to qualify and I don't think there is a team from that conference this year that is even close to meriting that type of ranking.
Last week when I said that I would select Bemidji State from the NSIC for the playoffs this year, I did so because I believe that every conference should be allowed to have it's champion in the playoffs regardless of regional ranking.
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