November 28th, 2006 12:00am
It seems the term "Elite Eight" gets thrown around pretty loosely these days. People use it to describe the quarterfinal field of any tournament, whether the teams are really elite or not.
But "elite" truly does describe the group of teams we have playing in this year’s D-II football quarterfinals. Consider these facts:
-The eight teams have a combined record of 91-4, with five of them being undefeated.
-Five of the eight teams are previous national champions with 14 championship game appearances between them. A sixth school (Bloomsburg) finished second in 2000. The two teams with no title game experience (Shepherd and Chadron State) are unbeaten.
-Three of the four semifinalists from last season are still alive.
-Seven of the top eight ranked teams in the final D2football.com poll will be playing on Saturday.
This is an excellent quarterfinal field and each of the four games has an interesting storyline. In the Northeast, both teams are unbeaten against D-II competition. In the Southeast, it’s a Gulf South rematch between Delta State and North Alabama. In the Southwest, it’s a match up of NCAA’s all-time single season rusher (CSC’s Danny Woodhead) against the top defense in D-II. And in the Northwest, Grand Valley and North Dakota will battle in the playoffs for the fifth time in six seasons.
If the games live up to their hype, Saturday will be a great day for Division II football.
Woodhead Gets the Record
As I alluded to above, Chadron State’s Danny Woodhead set the all-time single season NCAA rushing record in the Eagles’ 43-17 win over West Texas A&M last week. Woodhead ran for 252 yards against WTAMU to run his season total to 2,740, breaking Kevin Gailliard’s record of 2,653 set in 1999.
Woodhead also scored four touchdowns last week, which gave him 36 touchdowns and 216 total points for the season. Those are also new D-II records, breaking the ones held by Grand Valley’s David Kircus in 2002. These records should further solidify Woodhead as the 2006 Harlon Hill Trophy winner.
Northeast Region Final
Bloomsburg (11-1) @ Shepherd (11-0)
Both of these teams have exorcised some playoff demons by reaching this point. Bloomsburg and Shepherd were also the top two seeds in the Northeast Region playoffs last year, but neither team made it to the regional finals.
The two teams have similar styles. They play great defense (Shepherd leads the nation in scoring defense, allowing just 5.8 points per game) and then rely on grind-it-out running attacks and timely passing to put enough points on the board to win. Especially important for Bloomsburg is the return of running back Jamar Brittingham. The Harlon Hill finalist from last year returned to the lineup full time last week.
I think this is going to be an outstanding football game. Normally, I would give the team from the more powerful conference (Bloomsburg) the edge. But I think Shepherd is playing slightly better football right now and the Rams have a lot of motivation to prove that they belong in this position in the playoffs. Plus, Shepherd has the home field and the fact that the Huskies have a freshman quarterback could play right into the hands of the ball-hawking Ram defense. Shepherd 20 Bloomsburg 19
Southeast Region Final
Delta State (11-2) @ North Alabama (11-0)
These two Gulf South Conference teams met in late October, with the Lions prevailing 17-10 in a defensive struggle. The difference in that game: UNA’s running game. The Lions out-gained DSU 167 to 57 on the ground and were able to control the clock and field position in grinding out the win.
I expect a similar style of game this week - although both teams are better offensively than they were a month ago. The old adage is that it’s very difficult to beat a good team twice in one season, but I still like the Lions in this game. DSU is a bit stronger defensively, but UNA’s diverse group of playmakers and the fact that the Lions have home field will propel them to the win. North Alabama 21 Delta State 17
Northwest Region Final
North Dakota (11-1) @ Grand Valley (12-0)
As I mentioned earlier, it wouldn’t be the playoffs without another GV-UND battle. The two teams have split the previous four meetings, with the Lakers winning 17-3 last season. The series has been dominated by defense… neither team has scored more than 19 points in any of the four games.
This year I expect the game to be different. Both teams are strong offensively and capable of scoring a lot of points. In fact, I would not be at all surprised to see both teams score more than 20 points in this one. I think the difference, though, will be Grand Valley’s advantage on defense. The Lakers have been the more consistent defensive team this season and Cullen Finnerty’s ability to make the big play against a somewhat shaky UND secondary will be the difference. Grand Valley 34 North Dakota 26
Southwest Region Final
Chadron State (12-0) @ Northwest Missouri State (12-0)
No one has stopped Danny Woodhead this year- not even Montana State, a team that is still alive in the I-AA playoffs. If Woodhead can have another huge day on Saturday, the Eagles are capable of staying in this game.
But even if Woodhead and the CSC offense are effective, the Eagles still have another problem: they must slow down a NWMSU offense that has really been clicking over the past month. CSC is undersized on defense and if they start getting pushed around by the Bearcats, it will be a long afternoon.
I know Chadron State supporters will point to the Montana State win as proof that the Eagles can play with anyone, and they are probably right. But NWMSU is a better team (especially defensively) than Montana State and I don’t think they will make enough mistakes to allow the Eagles to stay in it. Northwest Missouri State 39 Chadron State 20
Pioneer Bowl
Johnson C. Smith (7-3) vs Tuskegee (8-3)
The Pioneer Bowl features the top non-playoff teams from the CIAA and SIAC. JCSU can cap an unbelievable turnaround season with a win in this game-- the Golden Bulls had lost 24 straight coming into this season. But I like Tuskegee in this game for two reasons: One, the Golden Tigers have a better offense, and two, Tuskegee played a game last week and won’t have any rust to shake off. Tuskegee 28 Johnson C. Smith 17
Mineral Water Bowl
Bemidji State (8-2) vs Pittsburg State (9-2)
This game features the top non-playoff teams from the NSIC and MIAA. BSU won the NSIC this year with a perfect 7-0 conference mark while PSU finished in a second place tie in the MIAA.
BSU has the top rush defense in D-II (40 yards allowed per game), while the Gorillas have Germaine Race and one of the top running offenses in D-II. Clearly something is going to have to give. I like PSU in this game, because while the Beavers’ defensive exploits are impressive, they haven’t faced an offense with the Gorillas’ talent level. Race needs 200 yards to set the all-time Division II career rushing record and I think PSU will keep giving him the ball until he gets it. Pittsburg State 38 Bemidji State 21
Rotary Bowl
Fort Lewis (6-4) @ Dixie State (1-9)
The Dixie Rotary Bowl is a brand new bowl game that features the top non-playoff team from the RMAC facing the host school, Dixie State, which is in transition from a junior college to Division II.
DSU has limited success in its inaugural D-II season and the Rebels will be overmatched in this game against Fort Lewis. Look for quarterback Matt Gutierrez and the other Skyhawk seniors to go out in style. Fort Lewis 35 Dixie State 17
Mailbag
[Q] What is the deal with Nebraska-Omaha always losing in the playoffs? I’m sick and tired of us beating some of these teams like NW Missouri and UND during the year but then having to watch them advance deep in the playoffs while we’re already done. What do you think the program needs to do to turn this around?
Frustrated Mav Fan
[A] I have mentioned in the past that it has always been a mystery to me as to why UNO struggles so badly in the postseason. The Mavericks are now 1-6 in the playoffs over the past 11 years. The strange part is during that timeframe, UNO has beaten four teams (including Northwest Missouri State last year) that have gone on to reach the national title game. It doesn’t make a lot of sense.
One thing that needs to be considered is the competition level. UNO’s six playoff losses are to the following teams: Northwest Missouri State, Pittsburg State, North Dakota, Saginaw Valley, and North Dakota State (now in I-AA). Obviously those schools have been right at the top of the list of top D-II programs and there are many other teams that have suffered the same fate when playing that type of competition in the playoffs.
The other reason I think UNO struggles in the playoffs is due to its offensive style. The Mavericks have always been a run first team that lacks offensive balance. It’s very difficult anymore in the game of football to consistently beat top competition when you don’t have a sophisticated passing attack. At some point in the playoffs almost every team is going to find itself in a situation where it needs to throw the football because it is behind late in the game or is facing a defense that is difficult to run against.
I think that until UNO makes that change, it will always be tough for the Mavericks to advance deep in the playoffs. A good blueprint to model after would be Pittsburg State - the Gorillas were another run first team that struggled for many years in the playoffs until they became a more balanced offense in 2004. It carried PSU all the way through to the championship game that year.
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