November 20th, 2007 12:00am
For the sixth time in seven years, North Dakota and Grand Valley State will meet in the playoffs in what should be the top match up of the weekend.
The Lakers have won 38 straight games, but the Sioux dealt the Lakers their last loss-- in the 2004 playoffs. In fact, UND is the only team to have beaten GVSU in the postseason dating all the way back to 2001: UND also defeated the Lakers in the 2001 national championship game. It should be a terrific match up when these two teams hook up one final time on Saturday.
Other top games include unbeaten West Texas A&M visiting Northwest Missouri State in the Southwest Region and two great games in the Southeast Region: Catawba at Valdosta State and Delta State at North Alabama.
Harlon Hill Finalists
The Harlon Hill Award has been narrowed down to nine finalists this week. Usually there are eight finalists, but a tie in the Southeast Region voting necessitated that three players come from that region. Here is a breakdown of the finalists followed by my opinion on them:
Jamar Brittingham RB 6-0 203 SR Bloomsburg
Key Stats: 1493 rushing yards, 23 touchdowns… 2005 Harlon Hill finalist
Opinion: Brittingham made the list based on name recognition and the fact that not many players in the Northeast Region stood out this year. He's had a great career and a nice senior season, but several of the other finalists have been more impressive this fall.
Weston Dressler WR 5-8 165 SR North Dakota
Key Stats: 71 receptions, 1178 yards, 14 touchdowns… 633 return yards... one of only four players in NCC history to be named 1st-team all-conference four times.
Opinion: Dressler is the best wide receiver in the country this year and he has had a fabulous career. But he is also up for an award typically reserved for quarterbacks and running backs.
Michael Eubanks LB 6-2 225 SR Delta State
Key Stats: 84 tackles, 24 tackles for loss, 12 sacks… D-II's all-time sack leader with 39… Two-time GSC defensive player of the year.
Opinion: Like Dressler, Eubanks plays a position not typically associated with this award. But he has also been far and away the best defensive player in the country this season and I believe he has a chance to become the just the second defensive player selected for the award.
Brad Iciek QB 6-1 190 SO Grand Valley State
Key Stats: 138-215 passing, 2248 yards, 25 touchdowns
Opinion: Iciek has had an outstanding first season since taking over for Cullen Finnerty. But he wasn't even named first or second team All-GLIAC, making it hard for me to understand how he made the list of finalists over Hillsdale quarterback Mark Nicolet, the GLIAC player of the year.
David Knighton QB 6-1 225 JR Harding
Key Stats: 297-453 passing, 3198 yards, 32 touchdowns… GSC offensive player of the year
Opinion: Knighton put up video game-like numbers this fall. His downfall, though, is name recognition and the fact that his team wasn't all that successful, going 6-4.
A.J. Milwee QB 5-10 175 JR North Alabama
Key Stats: 183-280 passing, 2268 yards, 20 touchdowns
Opinion: Like Iciek, Milwee plays the most important position on one of D-II's most visible programs. But also similar to Iciek, Milwee wasn't even regarded as the top quarterback in his own conference (that honor went to Knighton).
Bernard Scott RB 5-11 220 JR Abilene Christian
Key Stats: 229 carries, 1885 yards, 30 rushing touchdowns… 485 receiving yards
Opinion: Scott has the most impressive total statistics of any of the finalists. I like his chances of being one of the three guys wearing tuxedos in Florence.
Dervon Wallace RB 5-6 177 SR Shepherd
Key Stats: 304 carries, 1952 yards, 21 touchdowns
Opinion: Wallace has had a great senior season and has really come on late in the year, which usually helps in the eyes of the voters. Wallace has a good chance of being in the final three, in my opinion.
Danny Woodhead TB 5-9 200 SR Chadron State
Key Stats: 190 carries, 1318 rushing yards, 18 touchdowns… 406 receiving yards… All-time NCAA rushing leader, 2006 Harlon Hill winner
Opinion: Woodhead was an easy choice for the award last year, but with this season limited by injury, he is much more of a long shot this time around. Still, the voters may overlook the statistical shortcomings and make Woodhead the first two-time winner since Dusty Bonner.
Playoff Games this Week
Northeast Region
Southern Connecticut (9-3) @ California (11-0)
This is truly a match up of strength on strength: the SCSU offense against California's shutdown defense. The Owls average 513 yards of offense and 41 points per game, led by quarterback Steve Armstrong (31 touchdown passes) and the backfield tandem of Jerom Freeman and Brandon Toles (2610 rushing yards combined).
The problem for the Owls is this: despite the gaudy statistics, they haven't seen anything close to the talent level of the Vulcan defense this season. Cal's front seven is so fast and physical that I don't believe the SCSU offensive line can block them. It will likely be up to a below average (at least for a playoff team) SCSU defense to keep the team in the game and I just don't see it happening. California 32 Southern Connecticut 14.
IUP (9-2) @ Shepherd (9-1)
The Rams first made their mark in D-II football by beating IUP 9-6 in a 1998 playoff game. It was the first postseason win for Shepherd as a D-II program and you could make a pretty good case that it laid the groundwork for much of the success the Rams are currently experiencing.
The big key in this game will be IUP's ability to slow down Shepherd's Harlon Hill finalist, running back Dervon Wallace. Wallace has accumulated 1952 rushing yards and 21 touchdowns and has gotten tougher to stop as the season has gone on. The Crimson Hawks have had trouble slowing down top backs this season and if Wallace runs wild, it does not bode well for IUP.
Shepherd is a solid team defensively, but far from the dominant unit that led the Rams to the regional final last season. Plus, Shepherd has not seen an offense this year as balanced as IUP's. The Crimson Hawks' strength is that they spread the ball around to so many different playmakers that it's difficult for defenses to key on any one thing.
I think this will be a very good game, and one in which both offenses will score some points. I give an ever-so-slight edge to IUP based on being so balanced offensively. IUP 27 Shepherd 24.
Southeast Region
Catawba (11-1) @ Valdosta State (9-1)
The big story coming into this game is the health of VSU senior quarterback Willie Copeland. Copeland was hurt in the regular season finale against West Georgia and rumor has it that he is unlikely to play this week. Junior Tucker Pruitt is listed as the starter on the two-deep roster posted on the Blazer website.
Regardless of whether or not Copeland plays, the Blazer defense is going to have its hands full with a multi-dimensional Indian offense that put up 66 points last week. Quarterback Brad Roach (the SAC offensive player of the year) has been terrific throwing the football and he has a deep group of running backs to hand the ball off to.
I like Valdosta State in this game for a couple of reasons. Number one, the Blazers are faster and more physical defensively than any team Catawba has seen this season and I think the VSU defense will make it difficult for the Indians to move the football. Number two, the Blazers have a veteran offensive line and talented skill position players that will rally around Pruitt and make his job easier. Valdosta State 30 Catawba 23.
Delta State (10-1) @ North Alabama (9-1)
Five weeks ago the Lions handed DSU its only loss of the season, 28-17. The story of the game was turnovers: the Statesmen committed six while UNA played error free football.
Since that game, DSU has made some major changes. The two quarterbacks that combined to throw five interceptions in that game will now be holding clipboards in favor of talented sophomore Garrett DeWitt. DeWitt has accumulated an impressive quarterback rating of 161 in limited action and his ability to throw the ball down the field has brought an added dimension to the Statesmen offense that was missing earlier this season.
DSU has played great defense all season long and I don't look for much to change this week. A.J. Milwee and the Lion offense are also talented, but as long as the Statesmen don't turn the ball over and put the defense in holes, it will be tough for UNA to score many points.
Delta State avenged a regular season defeat in beating UNA in the playoffs last year and I have a feeling it may happen again this year. Both teams are very good offensively, but DSU is a special team defensively and I think that will be the difference in this game. Delta State 27 North Alabama 20.
Northwest Region
Central Washington (9-2) @ Nebraska-Omaha (10-0)
These two teams met just two weeks ago in Ellensburg, WA and it wasn't pretty for the home team. The Mavericks dominated in all phases of the game, winning 59-21.
The first thing the Wildcats must clean up to have a chance in this game is kick and punt coverage. UNO returned a kickoff 80 yards for a touchdown and also returned a punt 68 yards to set up another score the first time these two teams met. The Wildcats must at least reach a stalemate in the special teams category to have a chance.
The second big problem that CWU has is one that might not be correctable: UNO simply dominated up front on both sides of the ball two weeks ago. The Mavericks rushed for 361 yards in the first meeting and then turned around and sacked Wildcat quarterback Mike Reilly 10 times when CWU was on offense. It will take many Maverick mistakes for the Wildcats to overcome a physical disadvantage this large. Nebraska-Omaha 38 Central Washington 20.
North Dakota (10-1) @ Grand Valley (10-0)
As I noted earlier, it doesn't get much better than this match up when it comes to the playoffs. These two teams are almost like conference opponents in the sense that they know each other so well from all of the previous meetings that there won't be many surprises on Saturday.
The big story coming into this game is the health of UND's running backs. The Sioux were forced to finish last week's game against Winona State without the top three backs on the depth chart, including All-American Ryan Chappell. The big reason this is so important is that if the Lakers have a weakness this season, it is run defense: GVSU gives up 157 yards per game on the ground. It's not known at this time if Chappell or any of the other backs will be ready to play this week.
GVSU has had a seamless transition from Cullen Finnerty last year to Brad Iciek this year at quarterback. The Lakers are very good both running and passing and will put pressure on a Sioux defense that has not been as stout as previous seasons. The key for UND will be to limit the big play which is something that has been a problem for the Sioux defense at times.
The Lakers have not faced the same caliber of teams the Sioux have this year, and for that reason, GVSU is still a bit of an unknown commodity at this point. But there is a reason that GVSU has won 38 straight games: the Lakers have consistently been able to answer the call and do what's necessary to win and there is no reason to think the magic will run out this week. Grand Valley 31 North Dakota 26.
Southwest Region
Abilene Christian (10-2) @ Chadron State (11-0)
ACU's offense has been phenomenal this season, and if last week is any indication, the Wildcats appear to be picking up even more steam as the season goes along. Whether it's Bernard Scott (1862 rushing yards, 30 touchdowns) running the ball or Billy Malone (32 touchdown passes) throwing it, the Wildcats are almost impossible to completely contain.
The defensive side of the ball is ACU's weak point, and with a healthy Danny Woodhead back in the CSC lineup, the Eagles should have plenty of success moving the football. The big key will be converting on third down to extend drives and keep ACU's offense on the sidelines.
I must admit, I really don't have a very good feel for what to expect in this game. The Eagles have played outstanding defense this season and part of me feels they have what it takes to put the clamps on ACU's offense. But I also felt a very good Mesa State defense could hold the Wildcats down and we all saw how that turned out. CSC is going to have to score some points to win and some nice, crisp Nebraska weather (forecast game time temp is low 40's) could make things a bit uncomfortable for the Wildcats. Chadron State 31 Abilene Christian 27.
West Texas A&M (12-0) @ Northwest Missouri (9-1)
WTAMU wants to become an elite D-II program that can contend for a national championship. But to do so, the Buffaloes must prove that they have what it takes to knock off an elite team, something they have failed to do in two previous playoff appearances.
I really feel there will be two main keys to this game. First will be Northwest's ability to shed blocks and tackle in the open field. WTAMU's screen and short passing game puts a lot of pressure on defensive backs and linebackers to tackle in space. Luckily for the Bearcats, they have two of the top linebackers in D-II in Jerad Ersparmer and Matt Robertson.
The second key will be Xavier Omon's ability to run against the Buffalo defense. If WTAMU can slow down Omon (1566 rushing yards, 26 touchdowns) and force the Bearcats to throw, the Buffaloes' speed on defense will probably be able to force turnovers in the passing game. I define the over/under on slowing down Omon at 150 rushing yards.
It takes a pretty talented team to overcome all of the mistakes that the Buffaloes made last week (16 penalties and four turnovers) and there is little doubt in my mind that WTAMU has the physical ability to play with any team in the country. But sooner or later, especially when the level of competition escalates each week in the playoffs, mistakes and penalties will come back to haunt you. The Bearcats are too good for WTAMU to play erratically and still win. Northwest Missouri 32 West Texas 23.
Mailbag
[Q] I don't understand what has happened to my school (Winona State). We really did well in the playoffs a few years ago, but we got blown out in the first round again by UND and now it appears the program is going backwards. Why is this happening and what needs to happen to correct the problem?
Brad
[A] Winona State just doesn't have the scholarship money to compete year in and year out with the top programs in D-II. I believe that back in 2003 and 2004 when the Warriors were competitive with top programs like UND and Grand Valley, it was a situation where everything came together and WSU was able to put together a collection of talent which was unusual for the amount of scholarship dollars invested. In other words, playing at that high of a level was not sustainable for Winona State given the money situation.
Going forward, the only way that Winona State can really become an elite program is to continue to increase scholarships. The Warriors have an advantageous location as far as recruiting goes, being situated on the border with Wisconsin and near Illinois-- two states that don't have any other D-II programs. WSU also has an outstanding coaching staff, led by veteran head coach Tom Sawyer.
I believe WSU is on target to get to the NSIC limit of 24 equivalencies next year. That is an excellent starting point and should insure that the school is still among the league's top programs when the three NCC schools join. It will probably take more scholarship money then that, however, to become a national title contender.
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