November 27th, 2007 12:00am
I was all set to talk about what an opportunity this week was going to be for Nebraska-Omaha, about how an upcoming Northwest Region final against Grand Valley State could prove to be a watershed moment for the program… a chance for UNO to finally break through and do something big in the postseason.
Except there is now one problem: the Mavericks are no longer in the playoffs after suffering one of the biggest upsets in the history of the D-II postseason-- a 20-17 loss to Central Washington.
It's not that Central Washington is a weak team because that is clearly not the case. But what makes this such an upset is the fact that this UNO team was on an absolute roll, going 10-0 against one of the toughest schedules in the country, including wins over Northwest Missouri and North Dakota. This was also a team that was peaking at just the right time with blowout wins in its final two regular season games.
And then there are these two facts that I'm really having a hard time wrapping my head around: UNO had just beaten CWU by 38 points two weeks ago and, the Mavericks led by 10 points with 2:57 remaining in this game.
If it were any other top team going down in this fashion, it might not be such a big deal. But to understand the magnitude of the problems Nebraska-Omaha has had in the playoffs over the years, check out these facts:
-UNO has lost just one regular season conference home game in the last 12 seasons. With Saturday's loss, the Mavericks are now 0-3 at home in the playoffs against NCC opponents over the past seven years.
-Since 1996, UNO has beaten four teams in the regular season that have gone on to reach the national championship game. Three of those teams have won it all. UNO is 1-7 in the playoffs over that timeframe.
-UNO has won four straight NCC crowns, had a first-round bye three straight years in the playoffs, and failed to win a postseason game.
I don't know if cursed is the right word, but UNO's problems in the playoffs certainly seem to be approaching that level. Maybe a switch next year to the MIAA and Southwest Region will change the karma in Omaha. But losses as devastating as this one can leave a psychological scar on a program from which it is difficult to recover.
Chadron's Comeback
How amazing was Chadron State's 76-73 triple overtime win over Abilene Christian last week? Check out some of these facts and figures from the game:
-at the start of the 4th-quarter, ACU led 49-20 and had the football.
-CSC had six 4th-quarter possessions, and scored on all of the them (five touchdowns and a field goal)
-ACU had 653 yards of offense on just 67 plays. The Wildcats had seven touchdown drives (five in regulation and two in overtime) of three plays or less.
-CSC gained 716 yards of offense and ran 116 plays. Quarterback Joe McLain attempted 62 passes and the Eagles converted on 16 of 22 third downs.
-ACU Harlon Hill finalist Bernard Scott had 383 yards of total offense (303 rushing and 80 receiving) and scored six touchdowns. The Wildcats were so desperate for a defensive stop that Scott also played defense late in the fourth quarter.
-Despite having no timeouts, the Eagles were able to drive 92 yards in 1:12 to tie the game at the end of regulation.
I'm not sure I can remember a game quite like this one… especially in the playoffs. As terrific as Chadron State's comeback was, the Wildcats also made plenty of key mistakes, like throwing the football twice in the final 1:43 of regulation with a seven point lead and the Eagles down to one timeout. You could analyze this game to death, but it really was a perfect storm of factors that led to one of the greatest comebacks in college football history.
New Regional Alignment
Beginning next season, Division II will once again be realigning the regions for football. The basic alignment as far as conferences go:
Northeast Region:
Northeast-10
WVIAC
PSAC
CIAA
Southeast Region:
GSC
SAC
SIAC
Northwest Region:
GLIAC
NSIC
RMAC
Southwest Region:
MIAA
LSC
The GNAC's five teams (not an official conference) will be in the southwest region.
As I understand it, the driving force behind this new alignment is, as strange as it may sound, volleyball. D-II's leadership wanted to equalize playoff opportunities for volleyball and at the same time, create regions that were the same for all sports. Hence the new alignment.
The problem with these new regions in football is that they are stupid. You're going to put four conferences in one region and two in another call it fair? I thought this was the reason we changed everything around back in 2004-- to equalize the number of teams in each region. Now we swing back the other way and put over 40 teams in the Northeast again? This makes zero sense.
I understand the concept behind regionalization and it probably does make sense at this level in sports like basketball where there are 280+ teams. But the folks setting the rules in this division have to understand that strict regionalization makes no sense in football and only serves to hurt the sport.
Division II is claiming to have made many strides over the past couple of years in shoring up its image and establishing an identity. As far as I'm concerned, decisions like this one make those claims pretty hollow.
Games this Week
Northeast Region Final
Shepherd (10-1) @ California (12-0)
The Rams get another shot at trying to win the region and advance to the semifinals, but will have to overcome a tremendous California defense to get there. No team this season has scored more than 14 points against the Vulcans.
To me this game will come down to one question: can Dervon Wallace and the Shepherd running game do anything against the Vulcan defense? If the Rams cannot run at all, that means they will have to take to the air and this team just is not suited to throwing the ball 40 times in a game. California saw five very good offenses in the regular season in conference play and shut down them all. I see no reason to think that this week will be any different. California 27 Shepherd 13.
Southeast Region Final
North Alabama (10-1) @ Valdosta State (10-1)
There will be no secrets revealed when these two Gulf South powers do battle for a spot in the semifinals. The two teams met in late October in Valdosta, with the Blazers claiming a 27-24 win in a very tight, well played contest.
There isn't really too much more that can be said about this week's game, other than to say that I expect another very good game. I feel that the Blazers are slightly more talented both offensively and defensively, but UNA has been terrific at finding ways to win when it counts this season and sometimes that quality is more important than anything statistical. I picked VSU as my favorite in the region during the pre-season and I'm not changing my mind now. Valdosta State 21 North Alabama 17.
Northwest Region Final
Central Washington (10-2) @ Grand Valley State (11-0)
CWU quarterback Mike Reilly certainly isn't shy about how he feels about his team's chances in this one. He has been quoted as saying that the Wildcats are coming to end GVSU's winning streak this week. Something tells me that providing the GVSU defense with bulletin board material wasn't the wisest choice.
Anyway, the bottom line on this game is this: the Wildcats don't have much of a running game, and they will struggle to protect Reilly if he has to throw the ball every down. Plus, GVSU's offensive line is outstanding and they will eventually wear down an improving but still suspect at times Wildcat run defense. Grand Valley 38 Central Washington 18.
Southwest Region Final
Northwest Missouri State (10-1) @ Chadron State (12-0)
This is a rematch of last year's region final, with Northwest Missouri winning a hard-fought 28-21 decision in Maryville. The Eagles gained a lot of respect in the D-II community for their performance in that game, but CSC will not be happy with just coming close this time around.
The two teams are really fairly similar in their makeup. Both are very solid defensively and make opponents earn everything they get. Both also rely on outstanding running backs (Xavier Omon for NWMSU and Danny Woodhead for CSC) to be the focal point on offense and set up the passing game. I think this will be a very good game, but I like the Bearcats to win for this reason: I think they are a bit more talented and physical, especially on the offensive and defensive lines. Northwest Missouri State 31 Chadron State 24.
Pioneer Bowl
Tuskegee (10-0) vs Virginia Union (9-2)
Tuskegee has been on a roll this season, while Virginia Union placed second to Shaw in what has turned out to be an extremely weak CIAA. The Golden Tigers will roll in this one. Tuskegee 38 Virginia Union 17.
Mineral Water Bowl
Wayne State (7-4) vs Missouri Western (8-3)
Missouri Western has more talent, but WSC wants to be in this game while the Griffons probably feel relegated to being here after blowing their playoff chances in a season-ending upset loss to Truman State. Provided the weather is decent (early forecasts call for some precipitation) I think the offenses will dominate as both teams have fine young quarterbacks (Silas Fluellen for WSC and Drew Newhart for MWSU). Missouri Western 41 Wayne State 27.
Rotary Bowl
Western Oregon (8-2) vs Colorado Mines (7-4)
WOU has quietly had a very nice season-- the Wolves' only loss to a D-II opponent was to playoff quarterfinalist Central Washington. Mines is very solid defensively, but the Orediggers don't have enough talent on offense to outscore the Wolves. Western Oregon 31 Colorado Mines 20.
Mailbag
[Q] Why can't the South Division of the Lone Star Conference seem to find much success in the playoffs? Is the conference really that poor when compared with other conferences or is it an issue of inconsistency and playoff jitters?
Brent
[A] I have always regarded this question as one of the great mysteries in D-II football. One would think that with the funding, facilities, and access to players that the LSC schools have, they would be very successful in the postseason. But obviously, that has not happened over the years.
The best reason I can come up with for the LSC's playoff problems is this: Many of the best teams to come from this league (like TAMU-Kingsville in the past and West Texas A&M now) seem to play a style of football where they try to "out-athlete" every team they play.
What I mean by that is those teams had tremendous individual talent, but many times that talent didn't always play well together or play with the level of discipline required to beat other top teams. So a team like WTAMU could get away with committing 15 penalties a game in conference play, but as soon as the Buffaloes ran into another very talented team that played a more physical, disciplined style (like Northwest Missouri this year), it meant trouble.
As far as the overall level of the league, I think the LSC is probably the fifth or sixth best conference in D-II, which would make it above average. In my opinion, WTAMU is a legit top 10 team and Abilene Christian, Tarleton State, and Midwestern State would all be in the 20-30 range. So obviously the LSC South is solid, but it will take more improvement before we see one of these teams get to the point of competing for national championships.
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