Bob Eblen's National Column

September 2nd, 2008 12:00am

 

After watching Abilene Christian conduct an offensive track meet against a usually solid Northwest Missouri State defense, I asked Wildcat head coach Chris Thomsen where he was finding so many speedy players.

Thomsen replied, "There are a lot of good football players in Texas".

His answer may seem obvious-- after all, Texas has long been known for producing a large amount of football talent.

But his answer begs a bigger question, one that I consider one of the great mysteries in Division II football: With all of the advantages that Texas schools should have in procuring talent, why don't they win national championships?

It is a question I've never seen a good answer to. I realize there is some very good football played in other D-II conferences, but certainly at some time in the last 26 years-- that's how long it's been since an LSC team won it all-- a team from this conference would have brought home the hardware.

I bring this up again because, after seeing Abilene Christian, I would certainly have to put the Wildcats on the short list of teams with the ability to contend for the national title this year. Sure, the Wildcats aren't perfect-- the special teams need a little work and the defense is still unproven. But in all my years of following football at this level, I don't know if I've ever seen a team with as much combined talent as ACU has at the quarterback, running back, and two receiver spots. One thing I am sure of: If a team is going to knock off the Wildcats, they'll have to outscore them.

Major Upset

One thing I love about the first week or two of the football season is that you always see an upset or two that absolutely no one saw coming. St. Augustine's 14-7 win at Catawba would be "that upset".

To put the Catawba loss in perspective, the Indians were 11-2 and a playoff team last year while St. Augustine's was just 2-8. To top it off, Catawba was 19-0 all time against CIAA teams and had an offensive line intact from last year. Elizabeth City State will try to make it two straight for CIAA teams against Catawba this week.

Ashland's Collapse

Bloomsburg rallied from a 35-14 halftime deficit to beat Ashland 49-42. The loss not only potentially damaged AU's playoff chances, but also cost Eagle defensive coordinator Nick Toth his job.

Head coach Lee Owens was very much to the point in his comments to the Ashland Times-Gazette:

"(Bloomsburg) made adjustments with their offense," Owens said. "It wasn't effort on our guys' part, they just weren't in the right spots. They just outcoached us in the second half, that's the only way to look at it."

According to Owens, AU will be going to a defense-by-committee approach for the rest of this year. It will be interesting to see if the Eagles can turn things around defensively.

Other Random Thoughts on Week One

-After seeing them live, I don't think Northwest Missouri State is as talented as the Bearcat teams that have reached three straight championship games, but I wouldn't completely discount the Bearcats' chances, either. NWMSU has history of dropping early season games and then coming on strong going into the playoffs.

-Despite NWMSU's loss, the MIAA went a terrific 7-1 in non-conference play last week. With the way strength of schedule works for playoff selection purposes, this will be huge for the league come playoff selection time.

-On the other hand, the PSAC didn't fare as well. The league likes to fancy itself as the power in the Northeast Region, but the league went just 5-8 last week including just 1-4 against the WVIAC. With the non-conference games basically over for the PSAC (just a California game against Lake Erie College remains) it may be a frustrating playoff selection process for league teams.

-Speaking of Lake Erie College, the Storm must be given a tremendous amount of credit for nearly knocking off Gannon it their first game since starting a football program. LEC lost 24-22, missing on a 2-point conversion in the final seconds. Lake Erie is a provisional D-II school that will be a full member of the division next year.

-American International gave C.W. Post a fond farewell from the Northeast-10, pounding the Pioneers 45-19 last week. The Yellowjackets served notice that they will be right there competing with pre-season favorite Southern Connecticut State in the conference. Interestingly, the two teams play twice, a September 13 game that doesn't count in the conference and then again in the season finale which will count as a league game.

-Central Washington escaped Dixie State with a 44-38 overtime win, but the game may be a sign that the Wildcat defense isn't quite ready for prime time. With All-America quarterback Mike Reilly surrounded by talent on offense, CWU will score points. But the defense must play better if the Wildcats are going to reach the postseason and make another run once there.

-Valdosta State's 14-9 win over Newberry but definitely a defensive slugfest, but it could be a great thing for both teams in the long run because it will force both offenses to shore up their weaknesses and improve before the conference season.

Clock Changes

I mentioned in the preseason that new 40-second clock and the fact that the clock starts when the ball is marked ready after a play goes out of bounds would have an affect on the length of games. Will Prewitt at the WVIAC office had the brilliant idea to compare the total number of plays in a game from week one last year to week one this year and he found that the total number of plays in his league decreased just slightly, from 130.0 to 129.8 plays per game.

So I decided to expand on Prewitt's work and picked three other conferences (MIAA, SAC, and GLIAC) to see how many plays they ran last week. What I found was that between the four conferences, the total number of plays were down by 1.9 per game from last year to this year. I'll try to experiment with this again in a month or so and see if I get similar results.

New Regional Names

The NCAA announced this week that the four regional names have been officially changed. The former Northeast Region is now known as Super Regional One, the Southeast is known as Super Regional Two, the Northwest is Super Regional Three, and the Southwest is Super Regional Four.

The release from the NCAA included this explanation for the name change:

"The Division II Management Council wanted to distinguish the organization of the championship from the new regionalization model," said Council Chair and New Haven Athletics Director Debbie Chin. "Since the previous regional nomenclature for selection purposes used some of the same geographical references as the regionalization model, we felt it best to avoid as much confusion as possible by changing the football regions to a numerical format."

Top Games this Week

Note: As I write this, North Alabama and Carson-Newman are currently playing on CBS College Sports TV. I obviously meant to have my column done earlier with some analysis of the game, but thanks to Windows Vista, I was forced to reformat my entire hard drive. Sorry for the inconvenience.

California (1-0) @ Bloomsburg (1-0)

Both teams scored over 40 points last week with Cal quarterback Kevin McCabe completing 30-36 passes and the Bloomsburg offense generating 331 rushing yards.

I expect both teams to again put some points up, but I like Cal to win the game simply because I feel the Vulcans are deeper and more talented defensively. The Huskies will put up a fight, however. California 31 Bloomsburg 24.

Pittsburg State (1-0) @ Chadron State (1-0)

The Gorillas really struggled offensively in a 16-12 win over Central Oklahoma last week, but PSU has too much talent to be held down for long. CSC is very good defensively and even held the University of Mary to negative rushing yardage in their season opener. Something obviously has to give. I think PSU will try to wear down the Eagle defense just enough to sneak out of Chadron with a win. Pittsburg State 28 Chadron State 24.

Mesa State (0-1) @ Central Washington (1-0)

I was much more confident in CWU's chances in this game before Wildcats gave up 38 points last week. Plus, the Mavericks played very well as a huge underdog last week, losing just 23-20 to West Texas A&M.

I still think CWU should be a heavy favorite with the offensive weapons the Wildcats possess. For Mesa State to stay in the game, the Mavericks will have to use the same formula as against WTAMU: run the ball effectively with Bobby Coy and keep the CWU offense on the sidelines. I don't think Mesa can do it for four quarters… Central Washington 31 Mesa State 20.

Hillsdale (1-0) @ Michigan Tech (1-0)

The long drive up to the Michigan Upper Peninsula always seems to take its toll on opposing teams. But the Chargers feature a very good offense that should be able to score some points. MTU's Steve Short is one of the more underrated quarterbacks in D-II so this should be an entertaining game to watch. Hillsdale 27 Michigan Tech 24.

Minnesota-Duluth (1-0) @ Missouri Western (1-0)

Despite having a losing record last year, UMD was the preseason conference favorite in the NSIC and was impressive last week. MWSU needs this game because the Griffons can't afford any losses with the tough MIAA schedule looming. Both teams feature very good quarterbacks in Ted Schlafke for the Bulldogs and Drew Newhart for the Griffons. Missouri Western in a tight one at home, 31-27.

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