September 16th, 2008 12:00am
Shame on me for doubting the Grand Valley State defense.
Last week I stated that the one possible chink in the Laker armor may be an inexperienced defense. I surmised that the better offenses might actually score points against GVSU this year, something that has been rare over the past several seasons.
Apparently Chuck Martin was using my column as bulletin board material.
The Laker defense completely dominated a good Saginaw Valley team last week, shutting out the Cardinals 36-0. The beating was so thorough that SVSU managed just seven first downs and 81 total yards of offense. So much for any doubts about the Laker "D".
GVSU's performance on Saturday has convinced me of one other thing: the Lakers will be back in Florence playing for the national title in December. This is my reasoning:
SVSU and Ashland were supposed to be the two top challengers within the GLIAC. The Cardinals obviously swung and missed last week and Ashland is 1-2. Sure, Ferris State-- GVSU's opponent this week-- is 3-0, but does anyone really believe the Bulldogs can play with this team?
On a regional level, Minnesota-Duluth is a nice team, but not nice enough to battle GVSU for four quarters. And Chadron State out of the RMAC just isn't the same without Danny Woodhead.
There also isn't a team in Super Regional One (Grand Valley's potential semifinal opponent) with the horses to take out the Lakers.
So, my advice to you is to pencil Grand Valley State into one half of the championship game equation and focus your interest and attention on the race to determine the Lakers' opponent. The other half of the bracket should at least provide some suspense.
Other Random Thoughts from Week Three
-Anyone that needs a good example of how quickly injuries can unravel a season for a team needs to look no further than Southern Connecticut State. The Owls' once prolific offense was held to 12 points in a 13-12 loss to American International last week. The Owls played most of that game with a third string quarterback (all-conference starter Steve Armstrong is already lost to a broken leg), top receiver Chris Bergeski hasn't played since the opener, and star running back Jerom Freeman also went down during the AIC game. Most teams at this level just don't have the depth to sustain the loss of that many impact players.
-Pittsburg State (3-0) continues to win close games, but just how good are the Gorillas? They haven't rushed for 200 yards as a team in a game this season, which seems incredible considering the program's reliance on the running game over the years. We'll find out over the next month as we get into the heart of the MIAA schedule if the Gorillas are a playoff caliber team or not.
-The four former North Central Conference teams (Augustana, St. Cloud State, Minnesota-Duluth, and Minnesota State) have been cleaning up on their new conference so far, going a combined 6-0 against other NSIC teams. Even though those four programs have had to cut down to the conference maximum of 24 scholarship equivalencies this season, it may take a year or two for the level of play to even out.
-I think the Gulf South Conference is down this year. Maybe not at the top, where North Alabama and Valdosta State are right there with the best teams in the country, but there isn't another team in the league that I have confidence could win in the playoffs. The GSC has gone just 6-5 in out of conference play against D-II teams, with several usually solid programs (Arkansas Tech, Harding, and West Georgia) on the wrong side of some surprising scores.
Games to Watch this Week
Washburn (2-1) @ Central Missouri (3-0)
With as tough as the MIAA is, you could literally pick a game out of a hat each week and have it be one to watch. With Washburn losing in surprising fashion to Fort Hays State last week, this game has lost a bit of it's luster.
The Mules were extremely impressive in their two home non-conference games but found life on the road a bit more difficult in holding off Truman State 31-28 last week. Both teams are solid defensive clubs, but to me the difference in this game will be that UCM has a much more experienced and polished offense. Central Missouri 24 Washburn 20.
California (2-1) @ Edinboro (3-0)
This PSAC West battle is obviously important in the league title race, but it is magnified when considering playoff possibilities. With four conferences in Super Regional One, there just isn't much room for error. A second loss for California would be especially damaging since the Vulcans must turn around and play IUP next week.
Last season Edinboro relied on the passing of Trevor Harris to make up for a suspect running game and sometimes shaky defense. Both of those aspects of the game have improved greatly for the Scots this season, and Harris is still more than capable of throwing the football, as his 172 efficiency rating would attest.
We are going to find out a lot about this California team in this game. I still think the Vulcans are the most talented team overall in the entire region, but something didn't quite feel right about this team in the first two games, especially the loss to Bloomsburg. I think we'll find out this week if the Vulcans are once again a contender to go deep into the postseason. California 31 Edinboro 24.
Seton Hill (3-0) @ Glenville State (2-1)
Glenville State knocked off perennial WVIAC favorite Shepherd last week, 21-14. But the Pioneers also knocked off the Rams last season, only to fall the very next week to Seton Hill. I'm sure GSC head coach Alan Fiddler will be reminding his players all week about what happened last year.
Seton Hill's next victory will be a school record for wins in a season. This might sound shocking until you learn that this is only the fourth season of the program's existence. Two of the Griffins' three wins so far are against teams that beat them last year, so this team is definitely gaining ground on its quest to become a solid D-II program.
The game features two outstanding backs in Jerry Seymour for GSC and Antwarn Jones for Seton Hill. But the winner of this game will be determined by which team can play better defense, and although the Griffins are improved this year, it's hard to argue with way the Pioneers dominated the line of scrimmage against Shepherd last week. Glenville State 31 Seton Hill 20.
Chadron State (2-1) @ Colorado State-Pueblo (2-0)
CSU-Pueblo is a brand new program that has gotten off to a fast start. The win over Panhandle State in the opener wasn't a big deal, but last week's 37-7 blowout win over Fort Lewis was an eye opener. Plus, the team is playing in a brand new stadium that was jam-packed with over 9,000 fans in the season opener. CSU-P is a program on a fast rise that should be competing for RMAC titles soon.
The Eagles are not the same team without Danny Woodhead and it's apparent in the sense that things don't come as easily for CSC as they did in the past. Last week the Eagles had to battle back from an early deficit against Adams State, a team CSC had dispatched easily the last couple of years. Still, the Eagles' advantage in the experience department (the ThunderWolves don't have a single senior on their roster) should carry the team in this one. Chadron State 32 Colorado State-Pueblo 17.
Ferris State (3-0) @ Grand Valley State (3-0)
As I mentioned earlier, this game gets some attention simply because these are the only two remaining unbeaten teams in the GLIAC. Plus, these two schools are rivals and separated by less than an hour. It should be quite an atmosphere at Lubbers Stadium on Saturday night.
FSU has done it with defense and a solid running game thus far and has simply found ways to win late in contests. But in order to challenge GVSU, the Bulldogs must be multi-dimensional offensively. Quarterback Tom Schneider leads FSU in rushing, but a defense like GVSU's will feast on his inability to throw the football. Grand Valley 37 Ferris State 10.
Mailbag
[Q] Are you happy with the championship game being in Florence each year? Or do you think it should be moved somewhere else?
Don
[A] First of all, I think Florence has done a great job of hosting over the years. Anyone that has had a chance to go down there and see how well organized the championship weekend is comes away with an appreciation of how hard the championship committee works to put the whole thing together each year.
That said, I don't know if there is any such thing as a perfect location for the D-II championship game. Having it in a bigger city would be nice as far as ease of travel, but then it gets lost in the shuffle and becomes just another game instead of an event. Because of December weather, you wouldn't really want to have the game much farther north, so that obviously limits the possibilities also. Plus, Florence is home to the Harlon Hill award, so what happens to it if the title game were to move?
All in all, I think the game should remain in Florence until someone can definitively prove that another location would be an improvement. The one weakness Florence has is that the locals don't attend the game itself like they maybe should, but when you combine Florence's hospitality and experience with running the event along with the fact that the Harlon Hill award is there, and it will be hard to make a good case that the game should be played somewhere else.
Bob's Regional Power Polls
Super Regional One
1. Bloomsburg (3-0)
2. Indiana (1-1)
3. California (2-1)
4. Edinboro (3-0)
5. Glenville State (2-1)
6. West Chester (1-2)
7. Shepherd (2-1)
8. American International (2-0)
9. West Liberty (2-1)
10. East Stroudsburg (3-0)
Super Regional Two
1. North Alabama (3-0)
2. Valdosta State (2-0)
3. Carson-Newman (2-1)
4. Newberry (1-1)
5. Tuskegee (2-0)
6. Delta State (1-1)
7. Albany State (3-0)
8. Catawba (2-1)
9. Tusculum (2-1)
10. Arkansas-Monticello (2-1)
Super Regional Three
1. Grand Valley (2-0)
2. Minnesota-Duluth (3-0)
3. Chadron State (2-1)
4. Ferris State (3-0)
5. Michigan Tech (2-1)
6. Winona State (2-1)
7. Ashland (1-2)
8. Minnesota State (2-1)
9. Saginaw Valley (1-1)
10. Hillsdale (2-1)
Super Regional Four
1. Abilene Christian (2-0)
2. Nebraska-Omaha (2-0)
3. West Texas A&M (3-0)
4. Central Missouri (3-0)
5. Central Washington (3-0)
6. Northwest Missouri (2-1)
7. Pittsburg State (3-0)
8. Tarleton State (3-0)
9. Missouri Southern (2-1)
10. Washburn (2-1)
Contact Me
Have a question, comment, or criticism? Want to have your question answered in the weekly Mailbag? Have a suggestion for a podcasting subject?
Email Bob.