October 7th, 2008 12:00am
I've learned to prepare myself for this week each year. The first regional poll gets released and I get flooded with emails with questions and complaints regarding the results. Since I don't have time to parse through every email and answer every specific question, just let me say this:
It is too early to assume anything from the initial regional poll. As we've learned from dealing with this system in the past, there are large fluctuations in the rankings from week to week, especially in the first couple of weeks.
The reason for this is that strength of schedule is computed based only on the opponents a team has played so far, not a team's entire schedule. With all of the issues I feel the current D-II playoff system has (and that's a battle better fought on another day) I think one simple improvement that could be made to the ranking process is to use a team's entire schedule for the SOS calculations from the very beginning. This would prevent some of the wild week to week poll fluctuations that people find so frustrating. The end result would still be the same, but this change would add some more transparency to the process and help eliminate confusion. And believe me, that's a good thing.
Harlon Hill Race
Some people may disagree with my approach, but I always like to wait until midseason to compile a list of Harlon Hill favorites. My reasoning for this is I like to base my list on real results, not on potential from what happened the previous season. Without further ado, these are the guys I believe should be considered for the award this season:
Billy Malone QB Abilene Christian: 1511 passing yards, 16 TDs, 211 QB rating.
Ted Schlafke QB Minnesota-Duluth: 1466 passing yards, 16 TDs, 201 QB rating.
A.J. Milwee QB North Alabama: 1735 passing yards, 15 TDs, 194 QB rating.
Brad Iciek QB Grand Valley: 188 QB rating, 15 TDs, 0 INTs.
Keith Null QB West Texas A&M: 2407 passing yards, 22 TDs, 173 QB rating.
Mike Reilly QB Central Washington: 1772 passing yards, 18 TDs, 173 QB rating.
Scott Buisson QB Arkansas-Monticello: 1622 passing yards, 17 TDs, 772 rushing yards, 8 TDs.
Jerry Seymour RB Glenville State: 1093 rushing yards, 10 TDs.
Bernard Scott RB Abilene Christian: 734 rushing yards, 10 TDs, 387 receiving yards, 4 TDs.
Clearly, this is a great year for quarterbacks in D-II. Any of the seven quarterbacks I mentioned have a good shot at winning the award with a big second half. Also keep an eye on Bernard Scott. He has been playing half games so far because of all the blowouts, but because ACU's schedule gets tougher in the coming weeks, his statistics will spike upward towards the end of the season.
Games to Watch this Week
East Stroudsburg (5-1) @ Bloomsburg (6-0)
ESU's loss to West Chester last week erases a bit of the luster from this game, but with both teams in the PSAC East and playoff races, this is still obviously a very important game.
The best way to describe the Warriors is that, until last week, they've found ways to win. ESU isn't an impressive team statistically, in fact the Warriors average just 3.1 yards per rush and are minus two in turnover margin. If ESU does have a major weakness, it is stopping the run and that's a problem that will be exposed against a Husky offense that averages 300 yards per game on the ground. Bloomsburg 32 East Stroudsburg 17.
Indiana (4-1) @ Edinboro (5-1)
Even though we are just midway through the season, and even though the loser of this game will have just two losses, I think a playoff berth could be riding on this game. With both teams have fairly weak strength of schedules, and the fact that there are now four conferences in Super Regional One, and that fact that both have already lost to California, means that there likely will not be room for the loser in the postseason. I would expect a playoff-like atmosphere in Edinboro on Saturday.
The two teams are very similar. Both feature experienced defenses that have been dominant so far this season. Both teams feature diverse offenses that have shown the ability to both run and pass effectively. Both teams also have veteran quarterbacks that are among the best in the entire region. In short, this should be a very good game that could go either way, but my job is to pick a winner. Edinboro 27 IUP 24.
Northwest Missouri (5-1) @ Central Missouri (5-1)
Three weeks ago, I would have said that these are two pretty similar teams. Both teams have offenses that have clicked all season and both also had defenses with some question marks.
That was until the Bearcat defense suddenly went from somewhat porous to dominant almost overnight. Northwest has allowed just ten total points over its last three games and looks nothing like the unit that looked overmatched in the season opening loss to Abilene Christian.
For this reason, Northwest has to be a very heavy favorite in this game. The Mules will have to play a perfect game to stay in it, and even at that, it may not be enough to play with a Bearcat team that is playing terrific football. Northwest Missouri 38 Central Missouri 20.
West Virginia State (5-0) @ Seton Hill (6-0)
If someone had told me before the season started that it would be necessary to preview this match up because of its possible playoff implications, I would have laughed. These teams would both have to be among the top surprises in all of D-II this year.
Seton Hill has been a model in how to develop a new football program. Started in 2005, the program has improved each season, with this fall being the big breakthrough. The Griffins have 47 juniors and seniors on the team this fall and those veteran players have helped Seton Hill find ways to win-- the Griffins have won all six of their games by ten points or less.
WVSU is a similar feel good story as the Yellowjackets are another program on the rise after several years of futility. WVSU ended a streak of 15 years without a winning season by going 7-3 last year and the program has continued its success this fall. The Yellowjackets are strong on both sides of the football, but definitely have not faced the level of competition that Seton Hill has thus far.
This should be a very good game. I think WVSU may have just a bit more talent, but something tells me that the Griffins will find a way to pull out a win in another close game. Seton Hill 23 West Virginia State 21.
Tarleton State (5-1) @ Midwestern State (4-1)
Both teams are coming off their first losses of the season, and neither can afford another if they want to keep playoff hopes alive. Both teams have also relied on strong defenses for their success so far this season. But although the Texans struggled offensively last week in a loss to West Texas A&M, they at least have shown at times this year the ability to move the ball and score points. Tarleton State 24 Midwestern State 16.
Mailbag
[Q] How tough will it be for the NSIC to get two playoff teams now that Augustana and Minnesota State both have two losses? Assuming that Minnesota-Duluth wins out, do the teams with two losses have to win out or do they need help from RMAC and GLIAC teams?
Chris
[A] I think the chances are quite high that the NSIC will get two teams into the playoffs. The main reason I feel this way is that, right now, there are only three teams in the entire region with less than two losses. There is a good chance that two or even three teams in this region that finish the regular season with three losses will make the playoffs.
In addition to the two teams you mentioned, St. Cloud State, Wayne State, and Winona State (even though the Warriors dropped to 3-3 with a loss last week) all have at least an outside shot at the playoffs.
[Q] What do you dislike the most about Division II football?
John
[A] First of all, I have never liked the regionalized playoff system. I think it is flawed for several reasons, but mainly because there are too many teams getting into the playoffs each year that don't deserve to be there. Even the Division III playoff model is more sensible than D-II.
Secondly, I think D-II is too top heavy, with just a few teams dominating play nationally each year. Certainly a great deal of credit has to go to schools like Grand Valley for establishing powerhouse programs, but I don't think it is good for the sport to see the same two or three teams in the championship game every year. D-II really needs to have a year where GVSU, Valdosta State, and Northwest Missouri are removed from the championship picture.
Lastly-- and this point is definitely in correlation with my second point-- there are too many schools with a "just happy to be participating" attitude when it comes to football. Most of the blame here goes to administrations that apparently just don't see the value of investing in athletics.
Bob's Regional Power Polls
Super Regional One
1. Bloomsburg (6-0)
2. California (5-1)
3. Edinboro (5-1)
4. Indiana (4-1)
5. West Chester (4-2)
6. Seton Hill (6-0)
7. West Virginia State (5-0)
8. American International (5-0)
9. East Stroudsburg (5-1)
10. Fayetteville State (5-1)
Super Regional Two
1. North Alabama (5-0)
2. Delta State (4-1)
3. Valdosta State (4-1)
4. Tuskegee (5-0)
5. Wingate (6-0)
6. Newberry (3-2)
7. Carson-Newman (3-2)
8. Arkansas Tech (3-2)
9. Albany State (4-1)
10. Arkansas-Monticello (4-2)
Super Regional Three
1. Grand Valley (5-0)
2. Minnesota-Duluth (6-0)
3. Chadron State (5-1)
4. Ashland (4-2)
5. St. Cloud State (4-2)
6. Michigan Tech (4-2)
7. Augustana (4-2)
8. Minnesota State (4-2)
9. Mesa State (4-2)
10. Ferris State (4-2)
Super Regional Four
1. Abilene Christian (5-0)
2. Northwest Missouri (5-1)
3. West Texas A&M (6-0)
4. Central Washington (5-1)
5. Pittsburg State (5-1)
6. Central Missouri (5-1)
7. Texas A&M-Kingsville (4-2)
8. Washburn (4-2)
9. Midwestern State (4-1)
10. Nebraska-Omaha (3-2)
Contact Me
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