November 4th, 2008 12:00am
Trying to figure out the playoff picture, even with just a week to go, is akin to trying to crack a complicated code. There are so many variables and with the way strength of schedule can fluctuate from week to week, it's very difficult to account for everything.
What I want to try to do is look at each region from a standpoint of what is most likely to happen. Keep in mind that this requires making some assumptions regarding the outcome of games this week. So, if your team suffers a shocking upset loss that knocks it out of the postseason, don't blame it on me!
A region-by-region look at the playoff picture with a week to go:
Super Region One
This region is so complicated because there are four conferences and earned access is likely to come into play.
California is playing West Chester for the PSAC title and the Vulcans have such a high strength of schedule that they are definitely in the playoffs. So is 9-1 Bloomsburg, who should dispatch of Gannon this week.
Second seeded American International plays seventh seeded Southern Connecticut State for the second time this season on Saturday. AIC should already be in the playoffs, but if SCSU wins, will they both make it?
Fayetteville State sits with the eighth seed right now and the Broncos need only to hold that spot to get in via earned access. Since FSU doesn't play in the CIAA title game, it's likely that they Broncos will get in. The one thing to watch here is what happens with Charleston. If Charleston can beat Glenville State, I think there is at least a chance that they jump all the way up to eighth in the poll and potentially knock FSU out of earned access.
Seton Hill is currently sitting fifth and the Griffins have a tough game with West Liberty State this week. But as the only WVIAC team in the regional poll, SHU needs only to stay in the top eight to get in via earned access. Even with a loss, I think it's still likely that the Griffins get in.
So, if it's been determined that California, American International, Bloomsburg, Fayetteville State, and Seton Hill are all likely recipients of playoff berths, then the final spot is down to West Chester and Southern Connecticut. If SCSU wins and WCU loses, it's probably a tossup between the two. In all other instances, West Chester is likely in the playoffs.
By the way, I'm not including Edinboro in the conversation because I don't think the Scots have much of a chance with a strength of schedule that will drop like a rock after playing 1-9 Millersville this week.
Best guess at the Region One playoff field come Sunday:
1. California
2. Bloomsburg
3. American International
4. Seton Hill
5. West Chester
6. Fayetteville State
Super Region Two
This region is fairly easy.
The current one, two and three seeds-- Delta State, North Alabama, and Valdosta State-- will all be in the playoffs. DSU and UNA play weak opponents and VSU is done for the regular season after beating Southern Arkansas on Monday night.
Albany State is currently seventh in the regional poll and needs only to stay in the top eight for earned access since ASU is the lone SIAC team in the regional poll. The Rams should beat 2-7 Miles on Saturday.
The winner of the Carson-Newman- Tusculum game will also make the playoffs.
I believe the last spot will come down to three teams: the loser of the C-N- Tusculum game, Wingate, and Mars Hill. The choice here will be especially interesting if Tusculum beats Carson-Newman.
The one interesting thing to watch in this region will be to see if Valdosta State drops a couple of spots behind the SAC teams, especially if Carson-Newman and Wingate win.
Best guess at the Region Two playoff field come Sunday:
1. Delta State
2. North Alabama
3. Carson-Newman
4. Wingate
5. Valdosta State
6. Albany State
Super Region Three
Grand Valley, Minnesota-Duluth and Chadron State are all shoe-ins. I'm also going to count Ashland in because it will be a major shock if the Eagles lose to 2-8 Findlay on Saturday.
Even though Wayne State (MI) stands to gain plenty in strength of schedule by playing GVSU, I don't think it will be enough to offset a loss to the Lakers. Michigan Tech has little chance to move up from eighth with a game this week against 2-7 Northwood hurting the Huskies' strength of schedule.
So really, I believe the final two playoff spots in this region will come down to three NSIC teams: Minnesota State, Wayne State (NE), and St. Cloud State. WSC should take care of the University of Mary this week and the Wildcats will be in the playoffs as long as MSU beats SCSU. But if the opposite happens and SCSU wins, WSC could be in trouble with both the Mavericks and Huskies having the head to head advantage over them.
Best guess at the Region Three playoff field come Sunday:
1. Grand Valley
2. Minnesota-Duluth
3. Chadron State
4. Minnesota State
5. Ashland
6. Wayne State (NE)
Super Region Four
This region should also be fairly straightforward.
Abilene Christian will be in the playoffs, win or lose, and will probably hold onto the top seed even with a loss to Midwestern State. Northwest Missouri State and Pittsburg State are also playoff shoe-ins and both face weak opponents this week. West Texas A&M plays a tough team in Tarleton State, but I believe the Buffaloes will be in the playoffs, win or lose.
Central Washington should beat rival Western Washington for a second time this season on Saturday, but even if the Wildcats do not, I think the chances are good that they make the playoffs.
So we are down to one playoff spot and I believe three teams-- Tarleton State, Nebraska-Omaha, and Midwestern State-- are in the mix.
TSU is currently the six seed and the Texans will be in with a win over WTAMU. If TSU loses and UNO beats Washburn, then the Mavericks likely claim the six seed.
The one dark horse team to watch here is Midwestern State. If the Mustangs can pull the upset at ACU, there is at least an outside shot that they can jump up the way up from number 10 and claim the sixth seed. The problem for MSU, though, is that Tarleton State has the head to head advantage so they would need the Texans to lose and fall at least behind UNO in the regional rankings to have a chance.
Best guess at the Region Four playoff field come Sunday:
1. Abilene Christian
2. Northwest Missouri State
3. Pittsburg State
4. West Texas A&M
5. Central Washington
6. Nebraska-Omaha
Top Games this Week
Southern Connecticut (7-2) @ American International (9-0)
These two teams met in the conference opener with AIC taking a 13-12 win on a last second field goal. That game ended up securing the NE-10 title for the Yellow Jackets as this rematch does not count in the conference standings. But obviously, the playoffs are still on the line for both teams.
SCSU suffered through some major injury problems in the first few weeks of the season, but the Owls now have top back Jerom Freeman and receiver Chris Bergeski back in the lineup and have dominated late in the season. Plus I wonder if AIC won't be a bit flat after securing the league title in dramatic fashion last week. Southern Connecticut 27 American International 20.
Grand Valley (9-0) @ Wayne State (MI) (8-2)
These are the top two defenses in the GLIAC when it comes to points allowed, but Wayne State only averages about half the offensive point output that Grand Valley does. That is a big problem. Maybe the Warrior defense can keep them in it for a half, but this just isn't a good match up for WSU. Grand Valley 38 Wayne State 17.
Charleston (7-3) @ Glenville State (7-3)
This is one of two WVIAC contests that will figure in the league title race. GSC is currently tied with Seton Hill in the conference with one league loss while Charleston has two. Both teams rely on strong running attacks with Charleston going with the team concept while GSC has the nation's leading rusher in Jerry Seymour. GSC is a little stronger on both sides of the football and that will be the difference. Glenville State 28 Charleston 25.
West Liberty (6-4) @ Seton Hill (9-1)
If SHU can win this game and go from being a new program four years ago to a conference title and a playoff appearance, it will be quite a feat. But first, the Griffins must get by a talented WLSC team that has probably underperformed this season. It will be close, but like they've done all year, the Griffins will find a way to win another close game. Seton Hill 31 West Liberty 28.
Carson-Newman (7-2) @ Tusculum (7-3)
These two teams are rivals because of proximity, the SAC title is on the line, and the winner will lock up a playoff berth. Obviously, this is a pretty big game. I don't know if the Pioneers can slow down the C-N offense, but this is for sure: they will put their offense in the hands of senior quarterback Corey Russell and see if he can outscore the Eagles. Russell has been outstanding the last two weeks, rushing for 224 yards, passing for 523 and accounting for nine touchdowns. It will be a good game, but the Eagles have just a bit too much offense. Carson-Newman 37 Tusculum 28.
St. Cloud State (7-3) @ Minnesota State (8-2)
With a good chance of rain and snow and Friday, and temperatures in the mid-30's on Saturday, this could be a cold, sloppy game between these two rivals on MSU's grass field. Neither team is that proficient throwing the football so this game should be a real battle in the trenches, especially if the field conditions are sub par. SCSU has won five straight in the series, but MSU will find a way to break the streak and reach the postseason for the first time in 15 years. Minnesota State 20 St. Cloud State 16.
Tarleton State (8-2) @ West Texas A&M (9-1)
The Texans have basically had their playoffs hopes dashed at the hands of the Buffaloes in the season finale each of the past three seasons. Unfortunately for TSU, I don't see an end to that trend this year. WTAMU is just too talented on both sides of the football for the Texans to match for four quarters. West Texas 39 Tarleton State 24.
CIAA Championship
Shaw (7-3) vs Elizabeth City State (7-3)
Shaw has actually been a fairly dominant team statistically, leading the nation in total defense (214 yards allowed per game) while averaging 431 yards offensively. ECSU can't match those numbers, but what the Vikings do is force turnovers, leading the nation by forcing 40 this year. Shaw 17 Elizabeth City State 14.
PSAC Championship
West Chester (8-2) @ California (9-1)
These two teams met in the season opener, with California winning 44-32 and now will meet in the long awaited renewal of the PSAC Championship game. Both of these teams are good in all three phases of the game, but I think California is still just a bit better on both offense and defense. California 27 West Chester 20.
Mailbag
[Q] Who would you consider to be the most surprising and most disappointing teams in D-II this year?
Brett
[A] Picking a surprise team is easy; it would have to be Seton Hill. The Griffins started their program in 2005 and won 1 game that year, 2 games in 2006, and 3 games last year and then jumped all the way up to a 9-1 record this season. Even if the Griffins don't win another game this year, this season has gone well beyond expectations.
The biggest disappointment would probably have to be Shepherd. The Rams finished just 5-5 this year, including 3-5 in the WVIAC after going 30-1 in the conference over the previous four seasons. That's a pretty big drop off for a team picked to win the conference in the preseason.
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