December 2nd, 2008 12:00am
After the first two rounds went almost exactly as planned, you had to figure that an upset or two was coming. All four road teams ended up winning in the regional finals last week, but clearly the biggest shocker was Minnesota-Duluth's 19-13 double overtime win over top ranked Grand Valley.
When you look at all of the changes in Duluth over the past year, it is remarkable that the Bulldogs have made it this far. A year ago, UMD was finishing up a four win season in its final year in the NCC. Since then, the school has switched conferences, switched coaches, and been faced with the challenges of having to comply with the NSIC limit of 24 scholarship equivalencies.
The core of this UMD team was recruited when the program was operating closer to the D-II scholarship limit, plus the Bulldogs stayed virtually injury free all year and had a couple of young players come out of nowhere to become stars offensively. In other words, the stars aligned perfectly, and it still was extremely difficult to topple a power like Grand Valley.
Of the other three semifinalists, Northwest Missouri and North Alabama have nine national championship game appearances between them and California is appearing in its second straight semifinal as a blossoming national power. But for Minnesota-Duluth, this may be best shot this program ever gets at a national championship.
I say that because NSIC's scholarship limit is such a handicap to competing nationally. Advancing to the finals could also be a huge shot in the arm for the conference and help speed up the process of continuing to raise that scholarship limit.
UMD's win over Grand Valley was good for D-II football but even better would be a program like UMD advancing to the national championship game. This division has gotten a bit too top heavy in recent years with the same three or four teams dominating in the postseason. A brand new team at the top would be refreshing.
National Semifinals
North Alabama (12-1) @ Northwest Missouri State (12-1)
TV: ESPN2 at 4:00 Eastern
Three years ago the Bearcats visited UNA in the semifinals and in most circles it was a foregone conclusion that the more talented Lions would take care of Northwest and advance to a championship game at home. But the Bearcats came from behind to upset UNA on that day, and even though it's three years later, you have to think that the Lions would like to exact some revenge this week.
There is little doubt that UNA has seen some very talented offenses this year. Teams like Valdosta State, Delta State, and Carson-Newman had offensive talent on par with anyone in D-II. But those teams were much different than NWMSU in the sense that they were mistake prone. If you look at both playoff wins, the Lions feasted on VSU and DSU turnovers, and turned them directly into points. UNA is fast and talented on defense, but Northwest's offense is too disciplined to make a bunch of silly mistakes.
When UNA has the ball, the key will be the Lions' ability to run the football. UNA is not a great running team, but they need to have enough of a ground game to keep the Bearcat defense honest and keep them off balance. With as good as A.J. Milwee is, I don't think UNA can win the game if he has to throw the ball 45-50 times.
Both teams are playing some very good football but I have to go with the Bearcats in this game. I think Northwest's front seven on defense and strong offensive line will counter UNA's athleticism. The Bearcats have also been very effective bringing in backup quarterback Blake Bolles off the bench as a change of pace to break momentum and give opposing defenses something extra to worry about. Northwest Missouri 31 North Alabama 23.
Minnesota-Duluth (13-0) @ California (12-1)
TV: ESPNU at 12:00 Eastern
The Vulcans make a second straight appearance in the semifinals and will try to use the experience gained from losing a close game to Valdosta State last year to reach the championship game.
The Vulcans are a far different team than a year ago. The 2007 Cal team relied on a dominating defense to win games, but this Vulcan team is more balanced. Cal brought in D-I transfers in Kevin McCabe at quarterback and Marcel Pestano at receiver and both have excelled this season. After watching how well the Bulldog defense played last week, however, I think they have what it takes to hold the Vulcans in check.
I believe the match up of the UMD offense against the California defense will determine the outcome of this game. Teams like Bloomsburg have run the football very effectively against the Vulcans this year and they will have a challenge in trying to slow down bruising Bulldog running back Isaac Odim. I think this will be a good game, but I just have a feeling that UMD's physical play on both sides of the ball will wear down California. Minnesota-Duluth 24 California 16.
Mineral Water Bowl
Augustana (7-4) vs Missouri Western (6-5)
Note: This game features the top teams from the MIAA and NSIC that weren't selected for the playoffs.
You can't tell a lot from comparing scores when two teams have one common opponent, but I believe you can start to draw conclusions when the teams played three common opponents (Emporia State, Minnesota-Duluth, and Northern State). Augustana was minus seven points in those three games while the Griffons were minus eleven. This should be a fairly even match up but I like MWSU's more potent offense to prevail. Missouri Western 30 Augustana 24.
Rotary Bowl
Western Washington (5-5) vs Colorado Mines (8-3)
Note: This game features the top teams from the RMAC and GNAC that weren't selected for the playoffs.
Do not let WWU's record fool you-- the Vikings played a very tough schedule this year with a pair of losses to 5th-ranked Central Washington and two others to FCS teams. Mines is solid all-around team, but I think the Orediggers lack the offensive punch to keep up with quarterback Adam Perry and a potent Viking offense. Western Washington 34 Colorado Mines 27.
Mailbag
[Q] When it came to choosing home-field advantage for the upcoming semifinal, Minnesota-Duluth's undefeated record and win over the number one team in the nation should have trumped California's advantage of having a tougher schedule throughout the year. I understand neither team would feel its "fair" to have to hit the road, but in comparison, making UMD travel is much more inexplicable than making California trek to UMD. What's your take?
Ben
[A] This situation is really no different than what happened last year when top ranked and unbeaten Grand Valley had to travel to one loss Northwest Missouri in the semifinals. I'm sure the national committee compared the difference in strength of schedule between UMD and California and determined that Cal's advantage was enough to trump the fact that UMD had the better winning percentage. I really have no problem with the home field being determined in this fashion because it's the same process they use to rank teams in within each region.
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