December 9th, 2008 12:00am
For all the hype that the quarterbacks and running backs get and for all the emphasis that is put on speed and spreading the field offensively in college football today, the D-II semifinals reminded me that one basic tenet still holds true in the game of football: the best way to win games is to simply outmuscle the opposition.
That was apparent in both semifinal games as I thought it was pretty obvious early on in each that California and North Alabama were outclassed at the line of scrimmage. It didn't matter that UNA had Harlon Hill finalist A.J. Milwee at quarterback or that California had D-I transfers scattered about the skill positions on offense. It's hard for those players to make things happen when the guys up front are getting pushed around.
As we move on to the national championship game, I think the natural inclination is to assume that Northwest Missouri State is the heavy favorite because the Bearcats are the "name" team while Minnesota-Duluth comes into this game as a relative unknown. I want to caution you from taking this line of thinking. A team does not win at Grand Valley, hold three playoff opponents to a total of 30 points, or trail on the scoreboard for just three minutes all season without being very good.
In fact, California coach John Luckhardt went as far as to say that the Bulldogs are the best team he has coached against in his seven years with the Vulcans. Included in that list of opponents would be last year's national champion, Valdosta State. UMD is capable of not just competing, but winning the game.
The make up of the two teams is really very similar. Both have physical defenses with a philosophy of stopping the run and then getting after the quarterback. Both teams have experienced senior quarterbacks, very good offensive lines, and outstanding running backs. We've been fortunate to witness some great championship games in recent years and I see no reason why the 2008 game should be any different.
Harlon Hill Finalists
The three Harlon Hill finalists will be in Florence with winner being named on Friday night. Here's a breakdown of the three players followed by my opinion on who should win.
Mike Reilly SR QB Central Washington
Key Stats: 3706 passing yards, 37 TDs, 6 INTs, 415 rushing yards
A.J. Milwee SR QB North Alabama
Key Stats: 3313 passing yards, 33 TDs, 5 INTs, 257 rushing yards
Bernard Scott SR RB Abilene Christian
Key Stats: 2156 rushing yards, 28 TDs, 826 receiving yards, 6 TDs
Reilly is one of the all-time greats at this level and there is no question he has had a great senior season and a tremendous career at Central Washington. In almost any other season, he would be a shoe-in for the award.
But if I were voting, I'd have to go with Bernard Scott this year. To have nearly 3000 yards from scrimmage in just 12 games is an incredible season. I don't think it will be a travesty if Reilly wins instead of Scott, but I really believe that Bernard Scott should be the 2008 Harlon Hill award winner.
National Championship
Northwest Missouri State (13-1) vs Minnesota-Duluth (14-0)
TV: ESPN2 at 1 P.M. Eastern
Strangely enough, these two teams have a playoff history against each other. Back in 2002 UMD visited Northwest in the opening round of the playoffs. Both teams came into the game with 11-0 records but the Bearcats were heavy favorites. The game went back and forth with Northwest pulling out a 45-41 win. As I mentioned earlier, I expect a close game, but I don't think that many points will be scored.
Minnesota-Duluth Overview
Points per game: 42
Points allowed per game: 11
Total offense: 457 yards per game (243 rushing, 214 passing)
Total defense: 231 yards per game (58 rushing, 173 passing)
Turnover margin: Plus 8
Players to watch: QB Ted Schlafke (175 passing efficiency) RB Isaac Odim (1569 rushing yards, 25 TDs) WR D.J. Winfield (1179 receiving yards, 14 TDs) S Tyler Yelk (63 tackles, 3 INTs) S Jim Johnson (68 tackles, 4 INTs)
Keys to the game for Minnesota-Duluth:
- Play well on special teams. Kicker David Nadeau has made just one of four field goals in the playoffs and missed ten extra points this year. In a game where points could be at a premium, the Bulldogs cannot afford to leave points on the field in the kicking game. Also, UMD botched a punt attempt against Grand Valley and mistakes like that cannot happen in this game.
- Run for at least 150 yards as a team. The Bulldogs don't have the overall depth and size at receiver to throw the ball all day against the Bearcat defense. UMD needs to get Isaac Odim going early in the game to control the ball and set up the passing game.
- Play great defense on third down (and when needed) fourth down. The Bearcats always seem to be able to convert a few plays on third and forth down each game that deflate defenses. UMD must vary its coverages and simply make plays when they have the Bearcat offense on the ropes.
Northwest Missouri Overview
Points per game: 42
Points allowed per game: 19
Total offense: 454 yards per game (193 rushing, 261 passing)
Total defense: 303 yards per game (109 rushing, 194 passing)
Turnover margin: Plus 10
Players to watch: QB Joel Osborn (3067 passing yards) RB LaRon Council (1640 rushing yards, 35 TDs) WR Kendall Wright (780 receiving yards, 877 return yards) S Miles Burnsides (65 tackles, 6 INTs) DE Sean Paddock (12 TFL, 6 sacks)
Keys to the game for Northwest Missouri:
- Start fast. If the Bearcats can get up a couple of scores early, it will put pressure on a Bulldog team that hasn't been in that position all season. Look for the Bearcats to be very aggressive offensively early in the game to send a message.
- Find ways to run the football. Northwest doesn't have a great vertical passing game so if the Bulldogs can completely stuff the run (as they have all season) they will make it difficult for the Bearcats to move the football. Northwest doesn't need a huge day on the ground, but must be good enough to keep UMD off balance.
- Keep an eye on Ted Schlafke. The UMD quarterback is very adept at taking off and running when a play breaks down and the Bearcat defense has historically been susceptible to that type of QB (think Cullen Finnerty in 2006). The Northwest defense must make sure Schlafke doesn't hurt them with his running ability.
Prediction: As I mentioned earlier, I think these are two very similar teams and Minnesota-Duluth is more than capable of winning this game. I think this will be a battle for four quarters, but I have just a bit more confidence in the Bearcat offense to make enough plays and score enough points to win.
Northwest Missouri 24 Minnesota-Duluth 17.
Mailbag
[Q] Last year I thought the Northeast Region (now Super Region One) took a big step forward when California nearly made it to the championship game. But this year California's blowout loss to Minnesota-Duluth seems like it is a big step backwards for the region. What's your take?
Paul
[A] I don't think it's fair to pin the entire reputation of the region on just one team or on one game each season. In fact, I don't really think the overall play in the region was much different this year than last, it's just that California had a dominant team last year that was capable of competing with the best teams in the country while this year the Vulcans came back to the pack a bit.
With the PSAC lifting its scholarship limit, I think we will eventually see more teams from SR1 that are strong contenders for the national title, but it will take some time. I believe California just got up near the D-II equivalency limit of 36 this year and hopefully some other programs follow suit.
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