December 8th, 2009 12:00am
It figures that we would end up here: Another battle between Northwest Missouri State and Grand Valley State to decide the 2009 national championship. When you consider that these two programs have more wins than anyone else in the division over the ten seasons that D2Football.com has been in existence, it seems only fitting that we end the decade in this way.
What we saw last week in the semifinals was dominance, but it's not like Carson-Newman and California were bad football teams. It was simply a case of the Bearcats and Lakers being so good and so deep that they eventually just overwhelmed their opponents.
Chuck Martin pointed out that his team is down 11 players on the 2-deep (due to injuries or suspension, more on that later) from the start of the season, and yet the Lakers just plug in new guys and continue to dominate. The Bearcats suffered their own injury problems on the defensive side of the ball late in the regular season, but they didn't miss a beat, either.
The common "problem" I hear associated with Division II football is that the teams lack depth: The starting 22 are pretty good on almost every Top 25 team, but there is a big drop off when injuries or attrition occur.
NWMSU and GVSU don't have that problem, and that's why both programs are so consistently good year after year. The coaching staffs at those two schools have obviously done a great job of identifying talent, but more importantly, they have also been very good at developing players and getting them to buy into their system.
Outside of Grand Valley's issues coming into the championship game, maybe the best example of the kind of depth these programs have is this: This is the seventh time in 12 years that Mel Tjeerdsma has led his Bearcats to Florence. He has done it with six different starting quarterbacks. That is pretty amazing.
Grand Valley's Berezik Suspended
GVSU all-time leading rusher Jimmy Berezik and three other players (including starting defensive tackle Andre Thomas) were suspended indefinitely prior to the semifinal round last week.
Ironically, Berezik was also suspended during the playoffs last season and received a second chance this year from Laker coach Chuck Martin. At this point, one would have to assume that Berezik (who still has a year of eligibility remaining) has played his last down in a GVSU uniform.
I know to most GVSU fans it seems unforgivable that this young man could let the Laker Nation down again after what happened last year. It is a privilege to get to play college football at GVSU, and unfortunately, Berezik seems to have thrown that all away with some very poor choices. But keep in mind that in the grand scheme of things, this is just football, and the most important thing is that this young man gets his real life issues sorted out.
Fortunately (and this gets back to the depth issue), P.T. Gates was able to step in for Berezik last week and all he did was account for 326 all-purpose yards.
National Championship Game
Northwest Missouri State (13-1) versus Grand Valley State (13-1)
TV: ESPN2 at 1 P.M. Eastern on Saturday
This is the fourth playoff meeting between the Lakers and the Bearcats in the last five years. GVSU beat Northwest 21-17 in the 2005 title game and 17-14 in the 2006 title game before NWMSU beat the Lakers 34-16 in the 2007 semifinals.
Grand Valley State Overview
Points per game: 37
Points allowed per game: 17
Total offense: 455 yards per game (237 rushing, 218 passing)
Total defense: 301 yards per game (91 rushing, 210 passing)
Turnover margin: plus 20
Players to watch: QB Brad Iciek (33 TDs, 2 INTs), RB P.T. Gates (976 rushing yards), DE Danny Richard (13.5 sacks), LB Justin Victor (101 tackles, 6.5 sacks), S Jacob McGuckin (91 tackles, 4 INTs)
Keys to the game for Grand Valley State:
- Get pressure on Blake Bolles. This has to be the number one key to the game for the Lakers. GVSU has some young players at the corner positions and I don't think they will be able to handle standout Bearcat receiver Jake Soy without some pressure up front. Northwest has given up 24 sacks this season, so opposing defenses have had success in this regard.
- Play well on special teams. The Lakers have given up a kickoff return for a touchdown in each of the last two games and they must shore up their coverage when facing a Bearcat team that has explosive return men.
- Get off the field on third down. The Lakers' starting defensive unit should be fine, but injuries and suspensions have eroded some of the defensive depth and GVSU must keep the Northwest offense standing on the sidelines as much as possible to stay fresh. In addition, limiting Northwest to short offensive series and not allowing the Bearcats to get a rhythm going would be a big plus for GVSU.
Northwest Missouri State Overview
Points per game: 43
Points allowed per game: 18
Total offense: 482 yards per game (176 rushing, 306 passing)
Total defense: 316 yards per game (89 rushing, 227 passing)
Turnover margin: Plus 17
Players to watch: QB Blake Bolles (3947 passing yards, 41 TDs), WR Jake Soy (1441 receiving yards, 26 TDs), RB LaRon Council (1610 rushing yards, 20 TDs), DE Sean Paddock (7.5 sacks), S Miles Burnsides (75 tackles, 5 INTs)
Keys to the game for Northwest Missouri State:
- Take care of the football. I think the Bearcats are the more explosive team offensively, and they should win this game if they can come out even or ahead in the turnover department. Bolles must make good decisions under pressure and the Bearcats must do a better job than they did last year of holding onto the football.
- Win the battle at the line of scrimmage against GVSU's offensive line. Without Berezik, GVSU lacks a "hammer" in the running game that can consistently grind out yardage. P.T. Gates is dangerous with the football in his hands, but if Northwest can limit big plays from him they will have success. The Bearcat defense is very good once it forces opponents into obvious passing situations.
- Don't let doubt enter the equation. If this game is close into the fourth quarter, the natural tendency for the Bearcats will be to think "here we go again." Northwest must stay focused and not let past title game failures alter how they play the game.
Prediction: I think this is Northwest's year, but of course I felt that way the previous two years as well. This should be a very good game, but the Bearcats have just a bit more offensive firepower and they are the healthier team coming in. Either way, it will probably come down to turnovers or special teams play, with no more than one score deciding the contest either way. Northwest Missouri State 26 Grand Valley State 20.
Harlon Hill Finalists
Wayne State running back Joique Bell, Arkansas Tech quarterback Nick Graziano, and West Liberty quarterback Zach Amedro are the three top vote getters among the finalists and they will be in Florence for the awarding of the Harlon Hill Trophy on Friday night.
I have said all along that Bell is my choice for the award, and although Graziano and Amedro had great seasons, I think it would border on a travesty if Bell doesn't win.
Mailbag
With Carson-Newman losing so many great players, do you think the window of opportunity for winning a national championship has closed?
Mike
If you mean short-term, yes. Replacing the production of great players like Alex Good and Buck Warfield is not likely to happen overnight. As far as long-term, I don't think it would be wise to ever count out a Ken Sparks-coached team, but winning a national title will be a big uphill battle. Keep in mind that only one private school (Lehigh in 1977) has ever won a championship at this level, so it is a struggle for all private schools to compete nationally.
Contact Me
Have a question, comment, or criticism? Want to have your question answered in the weekly Mailbag?
Email Bob