October 26th, 2010 12:00am
What a Saturday of D2 football! Top-10 teams California and Hillsdale went down to relatively surprising defeats and Northwest Missouri State had to stop a late 2-point conversion attempt to hold off Washburn, 41-40.The upsets (and near upsets) were fun, but what really made last Saturday fun was the comebacks.
Shepherd rallied from a 35-13 third quarter deficit to knock off West Liberty, 53-38. What made that comeback amazing is that the Rams scored three touchdowns with the offense standing on the sidelines.
But even more amazing is that Shepherd's big comeback was trumped by what happened at Central Missouri. The Mules (8-1) trailed Nebraska-Omaha 31-7 in the fourth quarter before scoring four touchdowns in the final 10:23 to win the game, 34-31. A few other facts about this game that show just how incredible this comeback was:
-UCM quarterback Eric Czerniewski threw for 266 yards in the 4th quarter!
-The Mules hadn't scored an offensive point until the first of the four 4th quarter touchdowns that started the comeback.
-UCM scored three touchdowns in the final 4:53 of the game.
-Czerniewski led the team on an 80-yard drive in just 54 seconds, scoring the winning touchdown with just: 04 on the clock. The Mules ran 12 plays in those 54 seconds!
I can't remember another comeback quite like this one, especially when you consider what was on the line for Central Missouri. If the Mules (unbeaten against D2 competition this year) can take care of Missouri Southern this week, they will host what is likely to be one of the most important games in the history of the program two weeks from now against Northwest Missouri State.
Who will rise in the South?
Two weeks ago I prognosticated North Alabama was the easy choice as the favorite in Super Region Two. But after two straight losses-- including a relatively shocking overtime loss to Ouachita Baptist last week-- and another tough game on Thursday night against Delta State, the Lions could play themselves right out of the playoff picture.
If you look closely at the other contenders, it's hard to not find major flaws with just about all of them:
Albany State: The Rams are 8-0 and had been dominating SIAC competition. That is until they struggled to get past Morehouse 13-12 last week. ASU has consistently made the playoffs over the past few years, and consistently bowed out early each time. The Rams also haven't played another D2 team outside of the SIAC, so it's hard to say just how the 2010 Rams will stack up. That said, if ASU can knock off rival Fort Valley State (7-1) to end the season, they should be at home throughout regional play, which will be an advantage. If there ever was a year for ASU to finally make it out of the region, this might be it.
Valdosta State: If you look just at the Blazers' record (6-1), it would appear that they are back after an off 2009 season. But if you dig a little further, some cracks start to appear. Four of VSU's six wins are by five points or less, including last week, where the Blazers needed a late score to knock off a very pedestrian Arkansas-Monticello team. VSU is averaging less than 24 points per game on the season and has a freshman quarterback running the show. I'm not confident that VSU is national semifinal quality.
Delta State: We will find out much more about the Statesmen (6-2) after they take on UNA this week. DSU is explosive offensively, but is giving up nearly 31 points per game. It is hard to imagine DSU as a semifinal team with such a porous defense.
West Alabama: The Tigers (6-2) have just one D2 loss and possibly the region's most dynamic offensive player in senior quarterback Deon Williams. But UWA is below average defensively, and must face UNA and VSU to close out the regular season. If UWA gets into the playoffs they could be dangerous, but that's a mighty big if at this point.
Fort Valley State: The Wildcats (7-1) lead the nation in total defense, but like Albany State, the level of competition is a concern. I suppose if FVSU knocks off ASU in two weeks, they would have to be given a chance of picking up a win or two in the playoffs.
Ouachita Baptist: OBU (5-2) knocked off UNA last week, but the Tigers have to be kicking themselves for dropping a winnable game to Arkansas-Monticello earlier this year. With games against a decent Henderson State team and Delta State still on the schedule, odds are that OBU won't even get a shot at the postseason.
UNC Pembroke: The Braves (5-3) have been a big disappointment, but still have an outside shot at the playoffs with just two D2 losses. UNCP is a veteran team, but doesn't have enough offense to win in the postseason.
The SAC: Four teams (Carson-Newman, Wingate, Catawba, and Mars Hill) are tied atop the league standings with 3-1 records. All four have at least two losses overall. I suspect that Catawba has the best shot of making the playoffs based on remaining schedules and strength of schedule. But none of these teams is good enough to do much in the playoffs.
So there you have it. One of the teams that I mentioned is going to have to win the region, but it's sure hard to make a good case for anyone at this point. This is my best guess as to what will happen: If UNA can get its act together and just reach the playoffs (no sure thing with Delta State and West Alabama still on the schedule) the Lions are the best bet to win this region. If that doesn't happen, it will be crazy come playoff time.
NSIC Makes its Decision
I mentioned earlier this season that St. Cloud State was considering dropping its football program. The school was seeking a waiver from the NSIC to drop the sport, since sponsoring football is a requirement to be a league member.
Well, the league made its decision this week, and will not allow SCSU to drop football and remain in the conference. So, obviously, SCSU must either find a way to keep football or leave the NSIC. A referendum to add fees to support athletics will be put to a vote on the SCSU campus, and if it passes, there is a good chance that football can be saved. If it doesn't pass, the SCSU administration has a very big decision to make. The Huskies (7-1) take on top-ranked Minnesota-Duluth this week in a huge NSIC game.
Top Games this Week
North Alabama (6-2) at Delta State (6-2)
Even though both teams enter with identical records, the game is more important for UNA, since the Lions already have two D-II losses (DSU lost a game to D-I FCS Jackson State). UNA's strength is on defense while the Statesmen are an offensive-oriented team. It's hard to imagine the Lions losing three straight but: Delta State 24 North Alabama 20.
Winston-Salem State (8-1) at Shaw (6-2)
With Shaw unbeaten in the CIAA South Division and WSSU sitting with one loss, this game is huge as far as the league title game goes. These are the two top offenses in the conference, but the Rams are much better defensively. Winston-Salem State 27 Shaw 17.
Slippery Rock (6-2) at Mercyhurst (6-2)
With two PSAC West losses, SRU most likely cannot win the division, but they can play the role of spoiler for Mercyhurst, who controls its own destiny. These teams are very similar in the sense that they are defense oriented. Look for the Lakers to win a tight game at home. Mercyhurst 20 Slippery Rock 17.
Bloomsburg (7-1) at C.W. Post (5-3)
The Pioneers will attempt to recover from a very tough loss last week against Kutztown. It won't be easy as they will have to deal with the nation's leading rusher, BU freshman Franklyn Quiteh (1310 rushing yards). The Huskies also have a strong enough defense to slow down a Pioneer offense that has been rolling of late. Bloomsburg 31 C.W. Post 20.
Catawba (5-2) at Mars Hill (5-3)
It's been difficult to find many SAC games to talk about this year, because it's been difficult to determine which teams are good. These two clubs are tied atop the conference standings with Wingate and Carson-Newman. Both of these teams have weaknesses; Catawba can't run the football and MHC has a porous defense. A slight edge goes to the Mountain Lions because of their outstanding running back, Jonas Randolph. Mars Hill 28 Catawba 26.
Grand Valley (8-0) at Michigan Tech (5-2)
GVSU's defense has played much better over the last month, but is it a case of massive improvement or has the competition just been poor? We should get some indication from playing a solid Michigan Tech team that can score points. The problem for MTU is that the Husky defense will have problems keeping the Lakers off the scoreboard. Grand Valley 38 Michigan Tech 23.
St. Cloud State (7-1) at Minnesota-Duluth (8-0)
Even without Isaac Odim (out for the season with a knee injury) UMD racked up 431 rushing yards last week. That should send a shiver down the spines of every SCSU defensive player. The key for UMD in this game will be slowing down SCSU's outstanding freshman quarterback, Phillip Klaphake, who leads his team in rushing while also sporting a 167 pass efficiency rating. The Bulldogs will get it done at home. Minnesota-Duluth 27 St. Cloud State 16.
Mailbag
[Q] Recently you have talked about the up and coming teams such as Kutztown. Would you compare their success this season to the single season success of teams like Tiffin, and Mesa State in recent years or is a team like Kutztown something all together different? Also, what teams who currently sit at the bottom quarter of D2 do you see emerging over the next few seasons?
Mike
[A] Kutztown is a fairly young team, with just 11 seniors, so it appears as if the Golden Bears will be a factor for awhile in the PSAC. Probably the biggest factor to sustaining success is whether or not the KU administration is going to make enough of an investment in the program to make it attractive for Coach Ray Monica to stick around long-term.
Incarnate Word (2-6 right now in their second year of varsity football) is a team to watch for in the future. The school has brand new facilities and with its San Antonio location, there is big upside at this school. The one problem for UIW is that the LSC South will be a tough nut to crack, but I think this program will become very competitive over the next couple of years.
[Q] As the season is starting to wind down, who do you see as an outside contender for the championship? Or will it be pretty much by the books this year with perennial powers going the distance?
Shane
[A] To really examine this question, we have to look at how the regional playoff brackets will work out. Super Region Three and Super Region Four are in one half of the bracket. I believe Minnesota-Duluth and Grand Valley are strong favorites in SR3 while Northwest Missouri State and Abilene Christian are the favorites in SR4. I don't think too many people will be surprised if any of those four teams reach the national championship game. There are other good teams in these two regions as well, but it's tough to see any of them reaching the national title game with so many good teams in their way.
What is interesting, though, is the other side of the bracket with Super Region One and Super Region Two. As I mentioned at length earlier in the column, SR2 is a mess right now. California and Bloomsburg are the top two teams in SR1 in my opinion, but SR1 has historically struggled in the national semifinals. Someone is going to have to emerge from this half of the bracket to reach the national championship game, and once there, anything is possible in a single game scenario. If I had to pick a true dark horse right now from this half of the bracket, it would be Bloomsburg.
Contact
Feel free to contact me with any comments or criticisms or if you have a question you'd like answered in the Mailbag.