November 2nd, 2010 12:00am
Befallen by illness and having other time constraints, I haven't had the opportunity to dive into all of the potential playoff possibilities in this week's column. I promise to get deep into those possibilities next week as the postseason picture becomes clearer with just a week remaining in the regular season. All eyes will be on Super Region Four this Saturday, as three huge games will help determine not only playoff seeding, but conference championships as well.
A few random thoughts from last week:
-Grand Valley's defense was gashed by the Michigan Tech running game (313 yards, 293 from Phil Milbrath), which is not a good sign as we head into the postseason.
-California saved its season by rallying from a 15-0 fourth quarter deficit to beat IUP 18-15 in overtime. If the Vulcans can beat Edinboro on Saturday they should once again qualify for the playoff field. But Cal is going to have to regain its offensive form to challenge for the Super Region One title.
-I'm not an I-told-you-so type of guy, but I warned the Winston-Salem State supporters earlier this season to put all the playoff and national championship talk on hold and let the season play itself out first. WSSU suffered a second loss to Shaw last week which will prevent the Rams from having a shot at the CIAA title. It would take a whole host of upsets for WSSU to have any shot at the playoffs.
-The regional rankings were released on Monday, and I didn't see too much in them to quibble about. I think it was a great move by the Division II Football Committee to wait until later in the year to release them because it gives the appearance of being a much smoother process.
-Bad loss of the week goes to West Alabama. The Tigers lost to Southern Arkansas, a team that had been winless on the year. Even with just two D2 losses, UWA was left out of the first Super Region Two poll.
Top Games this Week
Kutztown (9-0) at Bloomsburg (8-1)
It doesn't get much bigger than this: The winner gets the PSAC East title and a trip to the league title game next Saturday. Kutztown relies on a very balance and consistent offense as the Golden Bears have scored at least 33 points in every game this season. But Bloomsburg has is much better defensively and has the nation's leading rusher in freshman Franklyn Quiteh (1444 rushing yards). Bloomsburg 32 Kutztown 27.
Shaw (7-2) at St. Augustine's (8-1)
Another huge game: the winner gets the CIAA South title and advances the league title game. On paper, these two teams are very close. But St. Augustine's has a slightly better defense and a top running back in Walter Sanders (1270 rushing yards, 15 touchdowns) which should give them a slight edge. St. Augustine's 26 Shaw 24.
Albany State (9-0) at Fort Valley State (8-1)
With the SIAC title and playoff berth(s) on the line, the Fountain City Classic is as important as it has been in years between these two rivals. These two teams are first and second in the country in total defense, so expect a defensive-minded affair. But I expect ASU quarterback Stanley Jennings-- who leads the nation in passing efficiency-- to be the difference maker. Albany State 20 Fort Valley State 13.
Northwest Missouri State (7-1) at Central Missouri (8-1)
Two great offenses. Two great senior quarterbacks. Both teams are also unbeaten in the MIAA. And to top it off, UCM first year coach Jim Svoboda is a former offensive coordinator for Northwest. I like the Bearcats in this game because they have the better running game and defense, but it should be entertaining. Northwest Missouri 35 Central Missouri 28.
West Alabama (6-3) at North Alabama (7-2)
UWA is coming off a bad loss to previously winless Southern Arkansas last week, but all will be forgotten when these two rivals take the field. Especially when you consider that neither team can afford another loss and the fact that UWA upset the Lions last season. UWA has a good offense, but the Lions have too much talent overall. North Alabama 24 West Alabama 17.
Abilene Christian (9-0) at West Texas A&M (7-2)
This game is bigger for WTAMU because another loss puts the Buffaloes squarely on the playoff bubble. These are two of the top offenses in the country; both are especially efficient at throwing the football. I think ACU is better defensively, and WTAMU has been turnover prone, especially in big games. That said, I just have a hunch that Buffaloes will find a way to win. West Texas 31 Abilene Christian 28.
Midwestern State (7-2) at Texas A&M-Kingsville (8-1)
This is a very interesting match up. TAMUK is one of the country's top defensive teams while MSU is offense-oriented. When you look at how the two teams have done against the other teams in the LSC, the results are very similar. TAMUK's offense has been sporadic, but I think the Javelinas will score just enough to get it done against the Mustangs. Texas A&M-Kingsville 24 Midwestern State 21.
Mailbag
[Q] How can Northwest Missouri State be ranked 3rd nationally (in the D2Football.com poll) and 4th in Super Region Four?
Randy
[A] Obviously, the regional polls are based on tangible criteria while the media polls are opinion. That said, the two of the teams ahead of Northwest in the region are unbeaten against D2 competition (Abilene Christian and Central Missouri) while one of the teams with one loss (Texas A&M-Kingsville) has beaten Northwest. Pretty easy to see why Northwest would be fourth.
Contact
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