November 16th, 2010 12:00am
I mentioned in last week's column that upsets were going to play a major role in selecting the playoff field. In fact, I even mentioned two upset possibilities-- West Alabama over Valdosta State and Harding over North Alabama-- that actually came to fruition.
But when the dust had settled Sunday and the playoff field was announced, 23 of the 24 teams that had been "in the field" prior to last weekend's games will still be moving on to the postseason.
The only subtraction was Nebraska-Kearney. The Lopers-- who had been ranked fourth in Super Regional Three-- lost in triple overtime to RMAC rival Colorado Mines, who was the eighth ranked team in that region. Most people figured that the winner of that game would be in and the loser out, and that's exactly what happened. No real surprise there.
So what we ended up with this season was a playoff selection process that was relatively devoid of major controversy. In fact, the only major complaining I have heard is coming from Super Regional Two. Before moving on to playoff talk, let me briefly address that issue:
Despite losing to Harding on Saturday, North Alabama at 8-3 retained the sixth seed in SR2, at the expense of 8-2 Fort Valley State. Many FVSU and SIAC fans are crying foul. But if you dig a little deeper, you'll find that UNA played six teams with .500 or better records and went 3-3 in those games. The Lions also knocked off two of the three GSC tri-champions (Delta State and Henderson State).
In contrast, FVSU played just three teams with winning records, and won just once. Clearly, UNA had a superior strength of schedule. And despite the fact that SIAC playoff wins have been rare over the years, the league did manage to get two teams (Albany State and Morehouse were selected) into the field. I'm not sure how SIAC fans could reasonably have expected much more.
A region by region breakdown of the playoff field:
Super Region One
1 Kutztown (10-1)
2 Mercyhurst (9-2)
3 California (10-1)
4 Shepherd (9-1)
5 Shaw (9-2)
6 Bloomsburg (9-2)
Random Thoughts
-It appears to me that the best three teams in the region (Mercyhurst, California, and Bloomsburg) are all in one bracket. The survivor of that threesome is my pick to represent the region in the semifinals.
-In contrast, there is great opportunity available for someone (Kutztown, Shepherd, or Shaw) in the other bracket. One of those teams is going to reach the regional final and we all know anything can happen in a one game scenario.
-The top two seeds (Kutztown and Mercyhurst) are playoff newcomers. Kutztown has played 11 straight Saturdays while Mercyhurst has played 10. With both teams in unfamiliar postseason territory and being taken out of their routines by having a bye, it could be a very interesting second round.
-A week ago, Bloomsburg would have been my pick to win the region. But the Huskies were manhandled by Mercyhurst in the PSAC title game and lost star running back Franklyn Quiteh to an injury in the process (his playoff status is unknown). And now BU would have to win at Cal and turn the tables on Mercyhurst just to reach the region final. That's tough.
-How will Shepherd rebound from a surprising upset loss to Glenville State last week? You never know how a team will rebound from its first loss of the season, especially when it comes so late.
First Round Games
Bloomsburg (9-2) at California (10-1)
As I mentioned earlier, Bloomsburg would have been my pick in the region a week ago, but the Quiteh injury and the convincing loss in the PSAC title game have me rethinking some things. The Vulcans have the best defense in the region, but have been a bit banged up offensively. Cal is finally starting to get healthy up front, and if QB Josh Portis plays well, I like the Vulcans in a close game. California 24 Bloomsburg 20.
Shaw (9-2) at Shepherd (9-1)
Just like Bloomsburg, Shepherd's loss last week is a bit alarming. The Rams will also be facing a Shaw team that is balanced offensively and has an athletic defense that has shut down good offenses the last two weeks. Still, I like the Rams because of their persistent running game and that fact that Monte Cater will have his team's attention after last week's upset loss to Glenville State. Shepherd 24 Shaw 17.
Super Region Two
1 Albany State (10-0)
2 Delta State (8-3)
3 Valdosta State (8-2)
4 Wingate (8-2)
5 Morehouse (8-2)
6 North Alabama (8-3)
Random Thoughts
-Just like SR1, this region is interesting because of the bracketing. Having all three GSC teams in one bracket-- especially when they know each other as well as Delta State, Valdosta State, and North Alabama do-- is going to make for some interesting football.
-This is a great opportunity for Albany State. The Rams will have a nice second round draw (either Morehouse or Wingate) and then potentially host one of the GSC teams in the regional final. With there being no great team from the GSC this year, ASU has a great shot at making the semifinals for the first time in school history.
-Delta State and Wingate are the only two teams in this regional field that are well above average offensively. This makes both dangerous because they have the potential to run away from other teams on the scoreboard if they get hot.
-I really like the overall talent levels of both VSU and UNA, but both teams are also inexperienced at some key spots and inconsistent offensively. If one of these teams could correct these issues, it has the potential to win the region.
First Round Games
Morehouse (8-2) at Wingate (8-2)
What a contrast in styles this game will be. Morehouse prefers to grind it out on the ground and relies on its defense. Wingate, on the other hand, has Cody Haffly (seven 300 yard passing games this year) winging the ball all over the place, and not much else. The Maroon Tigers can stay in this game, but it will be important to control the ball and stay in it early. In the end, I think it will be just too much Haffly for Morehouse to overcome. Wingate 31 Morehouse 20.
North Alabama (8-3) at Valdosta State (9-2)
When the Blazers beat the Lions by the ridiculous score of 5-0 in mid-October, the VSU defense limited UNA to just 101 yards of offense. Of course, the Blazers didn't do much on offense in that game either, but enough to win. Expect another low scoring game with the winner being the team that avoids the big mistakes. Valdosta State 17 North Alabama 13.
Super Region Three
1 Minnesota-Duluth (11-0)
2 Augustana (10-1)
3 Grand Valley State (10-1)
4 St. Cloud State (9-2)
5 Hillsdale (9-2)
6 Colorado Mines (9-2)
Random Thoughts
-I get the impression that many people are discounting Augustana's chances in a potential second round match up with Grand Valley State. Do not fall into this trap. The Vikings have a legit defense, and if quarterback Josh Hanson returns from the hand injury that caused him to miss the last couple of games, Augie can play with the Lakers.
-Minnesota-Duluth has been just plain dominant this season, winning every game by 20 points or more. Before Isaac Odim got hurt, the Bulldogs were the favorite in this region and a good bet to win another national title. Without Odim it will be tougher, but this is still a great overall team.
-There are some great running quarterbacks in this region, led by SCSU's Phillip Klaphake (703 rushing yards), UMD's Chase Vogler (545), GVSU's Kyle McMahon (492 and 11 rushing TDs) and Augustana's Josh Hanson (457). Defensive coordinators are going to have to work overtime to scheme ways to control the running QBs.
-With all Augustana and SCSU making the playoffs this year, all four of the former NCC teams (Minnesota State and Minnesota-Duluth being the others) have now made the playoffs at least once since joining the NSIC three years ago.
First Round Games
Colorado Mines at Grand Valley
The Orediggers will be bringing their high-powered passing attack to Allendale, and there-in lies the problem. The way to beat GVSU-- especially this time of the year when it can get cold and windy at Lubbers Stadium-- is to run right at them and keep the Laker offense standing on the sidelines. Mines doesn't possess that capability and its 2010 playoff run will be short because of it. Grand Valley State 37 Colorado Mines 17.
Hillsdale at St. Cloud
The Chargers went to Minnesota last year and knocked off Minnesota State in an opening round playoff game, so Hillsdale has the edge in experience and knows what it takes in the postseason. The Huskies are solid on both sides of the ball, and have been bolstered by the great performance of freshman quarterback Philip Klaphake. But Hillsdale has the GLIAC offensive player of the year in senior quarterback Troy Weatherhead, and his big game experience gives the Chargers a slight edge. Hillsdale 27 St. Cloud State 24.
Super Region Four
1 Abilene Christian (11-0)
2 Texas A&M-Kingsville (10-1)
3 Northwest Missouri State (9-1)
4 Central Missouri (9-2)
5 West Texas A&M (8-3)
6 Missouri Western (8-3)
Random Thoughts
-This is the deepest region, as I feel any of the top five seeds has the potential to make the semifinals if things were to go their way. The winner of the UCM/ WTAMU game will be a very dangerous opponent for ACU in the second round.
-I feel that NWMSU faces its biggest challenge in getting back to the national title game since the Bearcats started their streak back in 2005. Northwest has injury problems, lacks a big-time running back, and faces the prospects of having to travel to Texas back-to-back weeks starting with the second round. But, as history has shown, never count out a Mel Tjeerdsma coached team this time of the year.
-The quarterback play in this region is phenomenal. Mitchell Gale (ACU), Blake Bolles (NWMSU), Eric Czerniewski (UCM), and Taylor Harris (WTAMU) are four of the six Harlon Hill regional finalists from this region. Plus, MWSU QB Drew Newhart is a four-year starter.
-With the LSC holding the top two seeds and NWMSU appearing to be vulnerable, is this the year that the conference finally breaks through and wins the region? Taking it a step further, just one LSC team (TAMUK in 1994) has advanced to the national title game in the last 27 years.
First Round Games
Missouri Western at Northwest Missouri
The Bearcats stomped the Griffons 42-0 earlier this season, but I don't believe NWMSU is playing as well as it was at that time. MWSU is also likely to make some adjustments that will help to make this game closer. But the bottom line to me is that Northwest is a much better team up front on both sides of the ball and unless the Bearcats make a bunch of foolish mistakes, they will win this game. Northwest Missouri State 34 Missouri Western 17.
West Texas A&M at Central Missouri
Expect around 110 pass attempts in this game. I'm not kidding. Both teams are pass first offenses and footballs will be flying on Saturday. I think WTAMU has more talent, but I like UCM for this reason: QB Eric Czerniewski is having an incredible senior season and he's one of those players that just doesn't seem to make many big mistakes. Central Missouri 34 West Texas A&M 31.
Mailbag
[Q] Do you think Will Hall will turn West Alabama into a national power?
Tom
Note: Just to fill the readers in, Hall will be replacing Bobby Wallace, who announced his retirement from his head coaching position at UWA last week. Wallace, of course, won three straight national titles with North Alabama in the mid-90's and has successfully turned around the UWA program. Hall has been the offensive coordinator at UWA and previously won the 2003 Harlon Hill Trophy as a quarterback at UNA. At age 30, Hall will also be one of the youngest head coaches in D2.
[A] Everybody remember Chris Hatcher? To me, Hall fits that mold exactly: Great player, great offensive mind, highly respected as a coach at a very young age, etc. Hatcher's career path fits Hall's very closely: he won the 1994 Harlon Hill Trophy at Valdosta State and was the head coach at his alma mater six years later. Of course Hatcher also had great success at VSU, going 76-12 in seven seasons there and winning the 2004 national title.
That said; Hall's job at UWA will be much tougher. UWA doesn't have all of the natural advantages that VSU does when it comes to school size, location, etc. But I also think Hall is the type of coach that will relate very well to recruits and talent is going to show up at UWA to play for him. I think he can continue what Wallace built and keep UWA at a level where it wins consistently and is a playoff regular. But it would be difficult for any coach to turn West Alabama into a consistent national title contender based on some of the limitations the school has.
Contact
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