Bob Eblen's National Column

September 27th, 2011 12:00am

Bob Eblen's National Column

 

When it comes to the 2011 Grand Valley State Lakers, I no longer know what to say.

The first two GVSU losses were surprising, but at least explainable: Hillsdale is a very good team that had beaten the Lakers in 2009 and lost in the final moments last year. Indianapolis is an above average team that beat GVSU on a night when the stars seemed to align and everything broke the Greyhounds' way.

But for Grand Valley to lose a third game in a row to Findlay at home is one of the most shocking upsets I can remember.

The Lakers committed six turnovers in the 26-20 loss, their first loss to the Oilers since 1972. This is a Findlay team that is completely rebuilding and has just four seniors on its roster. Coming into the GVSU game, the Oilers' only two wins in their last 16 games were against a Tiffin team that hasn't beaten a D2 opponent in three years. But somehow Findlay became the first GLIAC team to win at Lubbers Stadium in seven years? Unbelievable.

With the conference title and playoff hopes now dashed, it will be interesting to see how the Lakers will respond. It will tell us a lot about second-year head coach Matt Mitchell and his staff. It will tell us a lot about the character of the players on the team. It will also tell us if the first month of this season was just an anomaly or if this program is in a free fall.

I will reserve further judgment on Grand Valley until November if for no other reason than I haven't got a clue how to predict what will happen the rest of the season. But it will certainly be interesting to follow along.

Random Thoughts from Last Week

-Nebraska-Kearney had another big offensive day, rolling up 605 yards in a 55-14 win over Western State. The Lopers are averaging 645 per game through four games. The Lopers just may be the favorite in Super Region Three at this point.

-The New Mexico Highlands (4-0) turnaround continues. For a second straight week, the Cowboys scored in the final 11 seconds of a win, this time beating Colorado Mesa 41-38.

-Six of the eight SAC teams (seven of nine if you include North Greenville's scheduling alliance with the league) already have at least two losses. Parity is a good thing, but I think this might be more of a case of mediocrity.

-Minnesota-Duluth responded in a must win situation last week, gutting out a 26-23 road win over previously unbeaten Bemidji State. Still, as I mentioned last week, the Bulldogs are not the team they have been over their three year run of dominance. Check out this stat: from 2008-10, the Bulldogs averaged 265 rushing yards and 5.7 yards per carry. This season they are down to 169 yards per game and 4 yards per carry.

-Delta State (4-1) is a team filled with potential and has yet to suffer a loss to a D2 team, but I feel the Statesmen are just kind of surviving right now. They have been pushed by both Arkansas Tech and Henderson State the last two weeks, and those are teams DSU should be handling fairly easily if they are a legit national title contender. Maybe it's the four straight road games that are taking a toll, but the Statesmen need to make a statement against a solid Oauchita Baptist team this week.

-Last season with two-time Harlon Hill finalist and Appalachian State transfer Zach Amedro running the offense, West Liberty led the country in scoring at 46 points per game. So the Hilltoppers turned the offense over to Central Florida transfer L.D. Crow this year and it has been a disaster. WLU (0-4) averages just 13 points per game and Crow has thrown 11 interceptions.

Top Games This Week

Kentucky State (3-1) at Albany State (3-1)

KSU has lost seven straight in this series, but with the ASU defense being as weak as it has been in years, the rest of SIAC teams have their shot at taking down the Golden Rams this year (Miles almost did it last week). The nice thing for ASU is that they have a standout quarterback in Stanley Jennings to bail them out. Albany State 34 Kentucky State 24.

Western Oregon (3-1) at Abilene Christian (2-1)

WOU is playing its fourth road game of the season already and the Wolves have traveled to Michigan, Utah, British Columbia and now Texas to face ACU. That is a lot of travel. The Wolves are a solid football team, but ACU has more talent and speed. Abilene Christian 31 Western Oregon 20.

Winona State (3-1) at Minnesota State (3-1)

Both these teams suffered disappointing losses to GLIAC opponents to open the season, but both are now the only unbeaten teams in the NSIC. Since switching to Bryan Bradshaw at quarterback, the WSU offense has taken off, setting school records for total offense (672) and points (72) last week. MSU has a solid defense, but hasn't faced the quality of playmakers that the Warriors possess. Winona State 31 Minnesota State 24.

Pittsburg State (4-0) vs Northwest Missouri (4-0) (at Arrowhead Stadium)

The Gorillas have not beaten the Bearcats since 2004, but have played them as tough as anyone in the MIAA recently, including a 22-16 loss last season. NWMSU averages 65 points per game, so PSU's best shot at winning is to use its running game to control the clock and keep the Bearcat "O" on the sidelines. It will take a perfect game to do it and I simply believe that the Bearcats have too much offensive talent for the Gorillas to contain for four quarters. Northwest Missouri State 34 Pittsburg State 21.

Wayne State (4-0) at Northern Michigan (3-1)

I really though NMU had potential as a playoff-type team… until they went to Ashland and laid a big egg in a 29 point loss last week. Still, the trip to the Upper Peninsula can be tough for any team and WSU will have to bring its "A" game. Bottom line, I feel the Warrior offense (averaging 468 yards and 46 points per game) will ultimately be too much for NMU. Wayne State 35 Northern Michigan 25.

Oauchita Baptist (3-0) at Delta State (4-1)

As I mentioned earlier, DSU has not played great football to this point and needs to turn it on at some point. OBU gave DSU all it could handle in a 6-point loss last November, so I'm sure the Statesmen will be focused. The OBU offense (470 yards per game) will be a major test for DSU. Delta State 31 Oauchita Baptist 28.

Hillsdale (3-1) at Saginaw Valley (3-0)

SVSU sophomore quarterback Jonathon Jennings is developing into one of the top signal callers in the GLIAC and Northwood coach Mike Sullivan called the Cardinals the best team in the league prior to his team losing to them last week. But Hillsdale is a very good team as well and on paper this appears about as even as it gets. Saginaw Valley 27 Hillsdale 26.

Mailbag

[Q] With all the realigning going on with D-I conferences and based on your brief story regarding the WVIAC and how Shepherd has been so dominant for the past 15 + years… Why wouldn't Shepherd look to move out of the conference and join a conference like the PSAC that is more competitive and has a better reputation/more respect within the football community?

Chris

[A] With D-I conference movement, the moves are all about football, TV money/markets, and recruiting bases. Those factors are way down the list when it comes to the D2 level.

As we've seen with the Arkansas and Oklahoma schools breaking away from their conferences in the past year to form the GAC, conference affiliation at this level is more about travel considerations and budget concerns.

Based on its location in extreme northeast West Virginia, Shepherd would probably not have much of a travel difference in the PSAC. But even though the WVIAC has gained some ground on the PSAC in football over the last decade, the PSAC has larger schools with bigger athletic budgets and broader-based overall athletic programs. Shepherd isn't going to leave a league that it has years of history with to join a league that would make it much more difficult for the athletic program as a whole.

Shepherd football benefits greatly from its proximity to Maryland and Virginia and the lack of much D2 presence in those two states. The Rams have 92 players from those two states on their current roster compared to just 10 from their home state. That advantage isn't going away no matter what conference Shepherd plays in. Increased success in football at Shepherd would come from a bump in scholarship money, not a change in conference affiliation.

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