October 11th, 2011 12:00am
To go for a two-point conversion or not. It's a situation football coaches find themselves in on an almost weekly basis. Many coaching staffs even have charts they use during the game to determine when it is feasible to try for two and when to just kick the extra point.
But last week we saw a game where charts and probabilities were set aside and a coach decided to go for two under the ultimate circumstances: convert and win the game, fail and lose.
The situation: Shepherd and West Virginia Wesleyan were in overtime last Saturday. The Rams had just kicked the game tying PAT to send the game into a second overtime. But a roughing the kicker penalty was called on the Bobcats leaving Shepherd coach Monte Cater with a choice: take the point and go to a second overtime, or accept the penalty which would move the ball just 1 ½ yards from the goal line and go for the game winning 2-point conversion.
Cater elected to gamble and go for two, and lost. Shepherd's Tommy Addison was stuffed on the rush attempt, giving the Bobcats a 45-44 win. The loss was the Rams' second straight, leaving them two games behind WVWC in the league standings. It basically negates any conference title chances that the Rams had and, more importantly, also may have knocked Shepherd out of the playoff race. A tough pill to swallow for a veteran team with high hopes after reaching the national semifinals last season.
For the record, I don't blame Cater one bit for taking a chance on going for two. Two-point conversion attempts succeed just 41% of the time in the college game, but with the ball half the distance closer to the goal, I'm sure the chances of making it were over 50%.
Plus, his Rams had been unable to stop the WVWC offense late in the game so maybe Cater felt his chances diminished if the game continued. Maybe he had a play that he felt was certain to work from that distance. Who am I to question one of the most successful coaches in D2 history on his decision?
But, what happened to Shepherd last week got me thinking: Sometimes the fortunes of an entire season can ride on just one or two key plays along the way.
Example: I'm sure most of you remember Minnesota-Duluth's David Nadeau kicking the field goal as time expired to win the national title last season. But did you also realize that Nadeau had to kick a game-tying field goal as time expired just to push UMD's second round playoff game against St. Cloud State into overtime? If Nadeau misses that kick, the Bulldogs aren't the 2010 national champions and go down as one of the biggest playoff disappointments in D2 history.
A team has to have talent, leadership and great coaching to win a national championship. But a little luck and the ability to make a play when absolutely necessary are key components as well.
Random Thoughts from Last Week
-Hillsdale had possession of the ball and a 42-30 lead against Ohio Dominican with just 2:40 remaining in the game. But ODU returned a fumble for a touchdown to cut the deficit to five, stopped the Chargers on their next possession and drove 70 yards in just four plays for the winning score. This loss will haunt the Chargers come playoff selection time.
-Grand Valley quarterback Heath Parling threw eight interceptions during the Lakers' three-game losing streak but has rebounded to throw 10 touchdown passes in just 37 pass attempts over the last two weeks. Parling now has the third highest pass efficiency rating in all of D2. Not bad for a quarterback that many Laker fans were not happy with just a couple of weeks ago.
-Lindenwood is in the process of reclassifying from NAIA to D2, but picked up a signature win by knocking off Texas A&M-Kingsville 41-35 on Saturday night. The Lions-- who will be joining the MIAA next season-- also beat FCS Northern Colorado earlier this year.
-Catawba had allowed just 251 rushing yards and two rushing touchdowns through its first five games. Then Indians then allowed 471 rushing yards and eight rushing touchdowns to Carson-Newman last week.
-Albany State held every regular season opponent to 14 points or less last season in rolling into the playoffs undefeated. This season the Rams haven't held a single opponent to less than 26 points in a game. ASU's 26-24 loss to Lane last week was the Rams' first loss ever to the Dragons and Lane's first win over a D2 opponent in almost three years.
-The Gulf South is now 25-3 against non-conference D2 opponents this year. Because of the strong out of conference record, there is a good chance that three of the five GSC teams could reach the postseason.
Harlon Hill Race
With last weekend marking the midpoint of the 2011 regular season, I feel it's time to look at who some of the early front-runners might be in the Harlon Hill race. Keep in mind that with five regular season games remaining, this list could change drastically by the time we reach the playoffs. These are ten guys to keep an eye on as we get into the second half of the season.
Jake Spitzlberger SR QB Nebraska-Kearney: Spitzlberger is the key man in the nation's top offensive attack. He has rushed for 614 yards (averaging a healthy 7.6 yards per carry) and 10 touchdowns and passed for 1613 yards and 12 touchdowns. If I had to pick a winner at midseason, Spitzlberger would be my guy.
Joe Glendening JR RB Hillsdale: Glendening is the nation's third leading rusher (984 yards) and leading scorer (21 touchdowns total: 18 rush, 3 receptions). He is a workhorse that has carried the ball at least 29 times in each of the Chargers' first six games. The only drawback might be that he averages "only" 4.8 yards per carry, which is low compared to some of the nation's other top backs.
Adam Neugebauer SR QB West Virginia Wesleyan: Nation's leader in both passing yards (2217) and touchdown passes (27). Plus, his performance in a come from behind effort against Shepherd last week (412 passing yards, six TD passes) was sensational.
Chris Mills SO QB Indianapolis: 18 touchdown passes, zero interceptions in 197 pass attempts. He has four games of 295 passing yards or more and a signature moment when he completed the game winning touchdown pass in the final seconds to beat Grand Valley.
Dane Simoneau SR QB Washburn: 1799 passing yards, 19 TD passes through six games. I know it's not a career award, but Simoneau has been starting since midway through his freshman season and has over 9000 career passing yards and 83 career TD passes.
Tommy Corwin SR QB Central Missouri: He served as the backup to last year's winner, Eric Czerniewski. This year Corwin has 2066 passing yards, 20 TD passes and has thrown for 360 or more yards five times. Plus, he plays in an offensive system that insures he will continue to put up big numbers.
Trevor Kennedy SR WR Mercyhurst: Hey, I know that only one wide receiver (Pittsburg State's Ronnie West in 1991) has ever won the award. But Kennedy is second in the nation in both receiving yards (797) and TD receptions (11) and is one of the country's most dangerous return men.
Rashaad Slowley SR RB Southern Connecticut State: Slowley is second in the nation in scoring (19 touchdowns) and has rushed for 954 yards.
Jonas Randolph SR RB Mars Hill: The nation's second leading rusher (986 yards) plus his team is having a great season to this point. Randolph has over 4400 rushing yards and 43 rushing touchdowns in his career.
Micah Davis SR QB Delta State: His pass efficiency rating (139) is actually a bit pedestrian this year, but Davis is still fourth in the country in passing yards (2024) and has accounted for 21 TDs (15 passing, 6 rushing). If DSU continues to win, Davis will be in the running.
Top Games this Week
Delta State (6-1) at North Alabama (6-0)
What a match up… one versus two. Both teams have great quarterback play and speed on defense. But I like UNA for a couple of reasons. One, DSU has turned the ball over 21 times this year (compared to 10 for UNA) and teams that are as sloppy with the ball as the Statesmen will have trouble in big games like this. The other reason is that UNA has Janoris Jenkins not only controlling half the field from his corner spot on defense, but also as a lethal punt returner (25 yards per return). North Alabama 31 Delta State 23.
Hillsdale (4-2) at Michigan Tech (4-2)
Both teams are coming off very tough losses and both desperately need to win this game or risk seeing playoff chances go out the window. I'm going with MTU for two reasons. One, the Huskies are a much better team defensively and two, they always have a big advantage playing at home on the Upper Peninsula. Michigan Tech 34 Hillsdale 27.
Fairmont State (5-1) at West Virginia Wesleyan (6-0)
The natural response for WVWC would be to exhale after beating Shepherd last week, but the Bobcats can't afford to with a solid FSC team coming to town. The passing of Bobcat quarterback Adam Neugebauer will be difficult for the Falcons to stop. Plus FSC has to have its running game clicking to score points and that will be difficult against a WVWC defense that allows just 1.9 yards per carry. West Virginia Wesleyan 38 Fairmont State 23.
Wayne State (6-0) at Ashland (4-2)
Ashland is a good football team, but to have a chance they will have to slow down a WSU offense that can pass and run with equal effectiveness. The Warriors have not been great defensively over the past three weeks, so I'm going with the Eagles at home in a mild upset. Ashland 31 Wayne State 30.
CSU-Pueblo (6-0) at Nebraska-Kearney (6-0)
The game of the year in the RMAC and what an interesting match up it will be. The Lopers lead the nation in total offense averaging nearly 600 yards per game, while the Thunderwolves allow just 11.5 points per game which is tops in the country in that category. UNK is no slouch defensively and if the Lopers don't turn it over, they should have the upper hand. Nebraska-Kearney 31 CSU-Pueblo 21
West Alabama (5-1) at Valdosta State (5-1)
Both teams still have to play North Alabama and Delta State, so this is nearly a must win situation. The key to this entire game will be whether VSU can contain UWA's rushing attack. This game is truly a toss up so I'll give a slight edge to the home team. Valdosta State 27 West Alabama 24.
California (5-1) at Slippery Rock (5-1)
Cal kind of fell off the radar after getting blown out by St. Cloud State to open the season but the Vulcans have racked up five straight wins, albeit against fairly weak competition. SRU boasts the top statistical defense in the country (201 yards allowed per game) and they will attempt to slow down a Cal offense loaded with skill position talent. California 24 Slippery Rock 17.
West Texas A&M (4-1) at Abilene Christian (4-1)
WTAMU can still throw the ball (351 yards per game) and they have a good match up in an ACU defense that has struggled to stop the pass. But the bigger reason I like the Buffalos in this game is that they are very good defensively. West Texas A&M 28 Abilene Christian 21.
Morehouse (5-1) at Albany State (4-2)
ASU's shocking loss to Lane last week certainly removes some of the shine from this game. But the Rams can tie the Maroon Tigers for the SIAC lead with a win and this game will also have playoff implications. That said, Morehouse is much stronger defensively and has the better running game. Morehouse 31 Albany State 21.
Mailbag
[Q] Are there any leagues that won't get a team into the playoffs this year?
Mark
[A] I think the only league that is more than likely not going to get a team in is the GAC. Every team in that league has at least two D2 losses already and playing in a region with the LSC and MIAA will make it tough. Plus, the GAC isn't eligible for earned access this year, so a team will have to finish in the top six to get selected.
The CIAA and NE-10 have been the only two leagues to miss out on the playoffs at least once over the last four years. But this year both leagues have a dominant team-- New Haven in the NE-10 and Winston-Salem State in the CIAA-- that seem destined to make it.
[Q] Why do you think West Alabama is not in the top 25? We are 5-0 versus D2 teams with our only loss being to FCS team South Alabama. I may be wrong, but a two loss Albany State team has no business being ahead of us, nor does many of the Northeast schools. Just my opinion and I would like to hear yours.
Jeremy
[A] The five D2 teams UWA has beaten are a combined 5-25. So UWA has not proven much at this point other than the fact that the Tigers can beat the weaker teams. For that reason I don't feel it's a travesty that UWA is outside the Top 25 at this point. Of course a win over Valdosta State this week would drastically alter my opinion.
Right now there are six Northeast (Super Region One) schools in our Top 25. The only one that is questionable to me about whether or not it belongs is Kutztown, although Bloomsburg is probably over-ranked at number three. I do feel that Albany State should not be ranked after losing to Lane last week.
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