November 20th, 2012 12:00am
Seven of the eight home teams won opening round playoff games last weekend. There was little in the way of drama, unless you had the pleasure as I did of witnessing the epic three overtime battle between Missouri Western and Minnesota-Duluth.
The Griffons beat the Bulldogs 57-55 in a game not decided until UMD senior quarterback Chase Vogler was tripped up by his own teammate on a final failed 2-point conversion attempt. It was one of the most entertaining playoff games I have ever witnessed and highly significant for both programs.
For MWSU, it was a first ever playoff win. The Griffons were 0-3 all-time in the playoffs coming into this year with each loss coming in heart-breaking fashion. Another devastating playoff loss-- especially for a team just coming off its first outright MIAA title-- may have been too much for the psyche of the program to take. We will see how much the Griffons have left in the tank after an incredible last two weeks, but it would not at all surprise me to see this team go deep in the postseason now that the ice has been broken.
For Minnesota-Duluth, it was the end of the Vogler era. Since being forced onto the field as a true freshman due to an injury in the 2009 season opener, Vogler has led the Bulldogs to a 47-7 overall record including three conference championships, seven playoff wins and the 2010 national championship. He finished his career with over 2900 rushing yards and 39 touchdowns to go along with over 7500 passing yards and 59 touchdowns.
Those are great numbers to be sure, but what I will most remember about Vogler is the great plays in clutch situations, like the 4th down scramble to beat Northwest Missouri in the 2010 national semifinals. Vogler is not a finalist for the Harlon Hill award this season but in my opinion there was not a player in D2 that was more valuable to his team.
Do not feel too bad for the Bulldogs, however. They were a junior dominated team this year and if they can find a quarterback they should once again be among the top teams in the country next year.
Other First Round Playoff Thoughts
-The only result on Saturday that really surprised me was a relatively easy Indianapolis 31-14 win over Midwestern State. I really thought the Mustang rushing attack would control the game but the Greyhounds played very well defensively.
-West Texas A&M impressed me in a couple of ways in their win over Chadron State. First, the Buffaloes rallied from an early 14 point deficit. In past years, WTAMU has tended to fold when the going got tough in the playoffs. They also rushed for over 300 yards in the game, showing a patient approach offensively which can serve a team well this time of the year. We will see if WTAMU continues with the same approach this week.
-Harding did exactly what it could not afford to do against Northwest Missouri: get behind early. The Bisons fumbled inside the Bearcat 10 on their first possession and never recovered, losing the game 35-0.
-One of the major inequities of the regionalized playoff system is this: the second and third best teams from a weak SIAC made the playoffs while just three teams combined from the two best leagues in the country (MIAA and GLIAC) made the field. Miles and Fort Valley State sure did not prove that they belonged by combining to score just 13 points.
Playoff Games this Week
Super Region One
Shippensburg (11-1) at Winston-Salem State (11-0)
After taking a week off in the blowout loss to Indiana in the PSAC title game, the Shippensburg offense was back to form last week, scoring 58 points in a first round win over Bloomsburg. Quarterback Zach Zulli is a Harlon Hill finalist and has thrown an incredible 53 touchdowns passes this season. The WSSU defense will have its hands full.
The Rams were a bit banged up but the week off should help in that regard. I think WSSU will score some points in this game. The question is how well will the Ram defense (ranked 11th in the country in total defense) match up with an explosive Shippensburg attack? My gut tells me that WSSU will slow them down enough to win at home, but it is very difficult to compare the teams. Winston-Salem State 31 Shippensburg 27
IUP (11-1) at New Haven (10-0)
UNH is not as explosive offensively as they were a year ago when they reached the regional finals, but the Chargers are probably better equipped for the postseason this year as they are much stronger defensively.
The problem for UNH is that IUP is even more equipped to win in the postseason. The Crimson Hawks are tops in the country in total defense to go along with a ground game that grinds out 279 yards per game. I think the Chargers best chance to win this game is to jump on IUP early and force them to play from behind, which they have not really had to do this year. That is easier said than done against an IUP team that is very sound overall. Indiana 28 New Haven 20
Super Region Two
West Alabama (9-3) at Valdosta State (8-2)
Although VSU is the top seed in the region, when these two teams met in Valdosta in September it was UWA coming away with a 39-28 win. In that game the Tigers ran for over 300 yards and their pass defense (which is tops in the country in pass efficiency defense, by the way) intercepted three passes.
I once again expect the UWA ground game to be effective. But what has changed since that first meeting is that the Blazers have switched to Cayden Cochran as the full-time quarterback. He has been very effective throwing the ball over the last month and although I expect this game to be close, I think VSU will find a way to score enough points to win it. Valdosta State 28 West Alabama 24.
Lenoir-Rhyne (9-2) at Carson-Newman (8-2)
These two teams met back in September with C-N winning easily, 47-23. The margin was so large because of turnovers: LRC fumbled the ball away five times while the Eagles did not turn the ball over. Logic would tell us that the turnover disparity will not be as large this time around.
Both of these teams use the option running game to move the football as these are the top two rushing offenses in the country. Both are on long winning streaks and were the dominant teams in the SAC over the last six weeks of the season. I feel the Bears have a slightly stronger defense and the motivation to avenge the loss earlier this season may give LRC a slight psychological advantage. But the Eagles have tradition on their side and have been so tough at home over the years in the playoffs that I will give them the slightest of edges in this game. Carson Newman 30 Lenoir-Rhyne 27
Super Region Three
Missouri Western (11-1) at Henderson State (10-0)
As I mentioned earlier, does MWSU have much gas left in the tank after a pair of emotional wins the last two weeks? That might be the biggest question mark coming into this game.
I do think MWSU is going to score a lot of points. I do not think the Reddie defense will be able to slow down Michael Hill running the football and if that is the case the Griffons will rack up the yards and points.
So the determining factor in this game will be the HSU offense against the MWSU defense. The HSU schedule has been weak, but still, a scoring average of over 53 points a game is impressive. The Reddies most likely have more talent and speed at wide receiver than the Griffons have faced this year. Kevin Rodgers is a good quarterback, but MWSU has seen players of similar ability in the MIAA. For HSU to win the game, their undersized offensive line will have to contain a strong Griffon pash rush led by standout defensive ends Ben Pister and David Bass and I do not think they can do it for four quarters. Missouri Western 38 Henderson State 31.
Northwest Missouri (10-2) at Minnesota State (11-1)
These are the top two defensive teams in their respective leagues, so I expect points to be at a relative premium. The Bearcats are probably a little more athletic defensively, but MSU has size, depth and pass rushing ability along the defensive line, which are very valuable commodities this time of the year.
There is no question that NWMSU had more weapons offensively. Notice I used past tense because the Bearcats have lost standout receiver/return man Jordan Simmons and starting running back James Franklin to injury within the last 10 days. The status of both is in question come Saturday and it will serve as quite an equalizer if either or both is out of the lineup. That said; I still like the Bearcats in a close game. MSU is a young but talented team with limited playoff experience going against a team that has played in at least three playoff games every year going back to 2005. Northwest Missouri 23 Minnesota State 16
Super Region Four
West Texas A&M (10-2) at Ashland (11-0)
As I mentioned earlier, WTAMU showed me a lot last week by the way they went about their business in beating Chadron State. It is a side I have not seen from this program when it comes to postseason play and it certainly bodes well for the future.
This game will feature two quarterback-- Dustin Vaughan for WTAMU and Taylor Housewright for Ashland-- that have played at a very high level this season. Both are not only talented but also great decision makers: Housewright has thrown just one interception all season! The Buffaloes have the talent to win if they get a few breaks, but Ashland is a bit more physical and the stronger team defensively. Ashland 31 West Texas A&M 21
Indianapolis (10-2) at CSU-Pueblo (11-0)
As I mentioned before, I was very surprised by the way Indianapolis controlled the Midwestern State ground game last week. The Greyhound defense will be further tested in this game by a CSUP offense that is equally effective running or throwing the football.
I do think quarterback Chris Mills and the Indianapolis offense can move the football and score some points against an improving but not great CSUP defense. If they can do so and not turn the ball over, I give the Greyhounds a very good chance of not only staying in, but winning the game. That said; after losing in their playoff opener at home last year, the Thunderwolves should have a chip on their shoulder to prove they can become more than just a regular season team. I like the Thunderwolves in what should be a very entertaining game. Colorado State Pueblo 31 Indianapolis 26
Mailbag
[Q] When are you finally going to give us an idea of who your Harlon Hill favorites are?
Bill
[A] How does this week sound? Every year I like to wait until the eight finalists are announced before chiming in with my opinion. Here is a list of each of the eight finalists along with their statistics and my thoughts:
Franklyn Quiteh JR RB Bloomsburg
Key Stats: 287 carries, 2121 yards 24 touchdowns
Thoughts: Quiteh leads the nation in rushing and has rushed for 100 yards or more in all 12 games this season and 30 of the 33 career games. I would have no issue with him being one of the three finalists in Florence.
Zach Zulli JR QB Shippensburg
Key Stats: 317-488 passing, 4529 yards, 53 touchdowns, 7 interceptions
Thoughts: These are video game-like numbers that have not been seen from a quarterback since Curt Anes at Grand Valley State a decade ago. I think Zulli should be a shoe-in as one of the top three vote getters.
Chris Bowden SR WR Wingate
Key Stats: 106 receptions, 1359 yards, 9 touchdowns
Thoughts: Bowden has had a very solid senior year, but if I am picking from a list of a D2 receivers, Bowden falls somewhere below Jeff Janis from Saginaw Valley and Charles Johnson from Grand Valley. I do not feel Bowden is a candidate to be among the three finalists.
Derrick Washington SR RB Tuskegee
Key Stats: 172 carries, 1399 yards, 13 touchdowns
Thoughts: Washington had a solid season in his one year at Tuskegee after transferring from Missouri, but Washingtons statistics are average compared to the other running back candidates. Washington also has significant off-the-field issues as he recently served jail time for a pair of assaults which caused his dismissal from the Missouri team. I do not feel Washington should even have been in the final eight.
Michael Hill SR RB Missouri Western
Key Stats: 269 carries, 1996 rushing yards, 16 receptions, 186 receiving yards, 18 total touchdowns.
Thoughts: I feel Hill has been the best all around running back in D2 this season and has the statistics (both rushing and receiving) to back that up. He has the ability to punish defensive players with his power but is also explosive when he gets into the open field. In my opinion, Hill should definitely be in Florence as one of the top three vote getters.
Kevin Rodgers SO QB Henderson State
Key Stats: 234-344 passing, 3590 yards, 40 touchdowns, 8 interceptions, 189 quarterback rating
Thoughts: There is no doubt Rodgers has had a great year, but against a fairly weak competition. Since I am picking today, I would go with other players as one of the three finalists ahead of Rodgers because of the lack of quality opponents. But if he lights it up against Missouri Western this week or in future playoff games, then I reserve the right to change my opinion.
Taylor Housewright SR QB Ashland
Key Stats: 221-324 passing, 2905 yards, 30 touchdowns, 1 interception
Thoughts: The one interception is incredible, but outside of that Housewright has low numbers compared to the other top quarterback candidates. I would not have a big issue with Housewright being one of the top three vote getters because he is the leader of an unbeaten team, but I do not see that happening as the voters have tended to value statistics more than intangibles.
Dustin Vaughan JR QB West Texas A&M
Key Stats: 279-432 passing, 3821 yards, 37 touchdowns, 9 interceptions
Thoughts: Vaughans numbers are very good, but some of that is due WTAMUs pass-first offensive system. He may be the most talented quarterback in this division and have a pro future, but I do not think his numbers are not quite to the level of the other top quarterback candidates.
Final Harlon Hill Thoughts: If I had a vote, my top three would be Zulli, Hill and Quiteh in that order with Rodgers and Housewright just outside of the top three. The sports information directors will conclude their voting on November 29th and shortly after that we will find out if they agree.
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