Bob Eblen's National Column

December 9th, 2014 12:00am

Bob Eblen's National Column

 

With Valdosta State and Minnesota-Duluth both going down to defeat in the quarterfinals, D2 is guaranteed of having a first time national champion this year. It has been 13 years since this last happened. In fact, Minnesota State is the only team among the final four that has reached the semifinals in a previous season.

When looking a little deeper at the final four, what strikes me is how far some of these programs have come in recent years. For example, let's travel on the D2 time machine back to 2008. That year both Concord (0-11) and West Georgia (0-10) went winless. CSU-Pueblo had just reinstated its football program that year and went 4-6. Minnesota State had a successful season at 9-3, but the Mavericks were coming off a stretch of 12 losing seasons in 13 years. If I had told you in 2008 that in just six years these would be the national semifinalists, what would your reaction have been?

I think the success of these four programs points out the fact that there is a great deal of opportunity in this division for schools that want to invest in their football programs. If there is proper backing from a school's administration and they can hire the right coach, the sky is the limit for a good chunk of the programs in D2.

Speaking of coaches, Concord's Garin Justice and West Georgia's Will Hall are two of the youngest head coaches in the entire division. I'm sure athletic directors around D2 are taking note of this and many will be looking for next young rising star in the coaching ranks the next time they need to make a hire.

Harlon Hill Problem

The list of nine Harlon Hill finalists has been announced. There are several names I'm sure you'll be familiar with, including Henderson State quarterback Kevin Rodgers, who is a finalist for the third time. 

The problem I have with this year's list of finalists is the exclusion of Azusa Pacific running back Terrell Watson from the list of finalists. Watson was the leading rusher in all of D2 this season with 2,153 yards and also scored 29 touchdowns. He also had seven 200 yard games, despite the fact that he played on a team with a limited passing attack. I believe there is a very good chance that we will see Watson playing on Sundays.

The way the Harlon Hill voting process works is this: 36 players are initially nominated from across the country. Sports Information Directors in each of the regions vote on the respective candidates from their own region. The top two vote getters in each region make the list of finalists to be voted on nationally.

Long story short, Watson was excluded by the SIDs in Super Region Three in favor of Rodgers and Pittsburg State quarterback Anthony Abenajo. Both are fine players, but neither had close to the type of season Watson did relative to the positions that they play.

To put this in further perspective, last year's Harlon Hill winner- running back Franklyn Quiteh from Bloomsburg- had almost identical statistics to Watson. To say that Quiteh's season last year was good enough to win it but Watson's season this year doesn't even merit being a finalist doesn't quite add up.

Observations from Last Week's Games

-I said in my column last week that I could see Concord winning if they could get out to a big early lead and that's exactly what happened in the SR1 final. The Mountain Lions used a punt return for a touchdown followed by a fumble recovery on the ensuing kickoff to jump out to a 23-2 lead and then held on to beat Bloomsburg 32-26.

-When West Georgia lost 40-6 earlier this year to Valdosta State, the Wolves allowed 351 rushing yards to VSU. On Saturday's 31-17 win over VSU, the Wolves limited the Blazers to just 146 yards on 39 carries. That is a huge improvement.

-Last week I talked all about how Minnesota-Duluth always seems to avoid the big mistakes in the big games- and then the Bulldogs turned in over four times in their 44-17 loss to Minnesota State. UMD recovered from a fumble on their first play from scrimmage to tie the game at halftime, but another fumble that ended their first possession of the second half was too much to overcome.

-CSU-Pueblo's 31-28 win over Ohio Dominican had a strange vibe to it, with the Thunderwolves jumping out to a 24-0 lead and then having to hold on as their offense went 3-and-out on six drives over the last three quarters. In fact the game was in large part a defensive stalemate with the two teams combining for 17 punts. I felt the big play in the game was the 83 yard punt return for a touchdown by CSU-Pueblo's Daniel Wise early in the fourth quarter. Without that score, I think ODU comes all the way back and wins the game.

National Semifinals

Concord (13-0) at Minnesota State (13-0)
TV: ESPN3 at 3 PM Eastern

Over Concord's last three games, they have been out-rushed in each game, out-gained by a total of 249 yards and they are minus three in turnover differential. So how have the Mountain Lions been able to keep winning? They have made big plays at critical times in both the passing game and on special teams.

For the Mountain Lions to have a chance against MSU, they will have to find ways to continue to make big plays throwing the football and on special teams. The reason I feel this way is that the Mavericks offensive and defensive lines will be at a whole different level than any other Concord has seen all season. MSU's huge advantage in the trenches will tip the game in their favor eventually unless CU can find ways to counter with big plays.
I think this is the type of game where MSU can just allow its big offensive line to go to work and grind it out on the ground, similar to what the Mavericks did against Sioux Falls late in the regular season. I expect Connor Thomas to have a big day running the football. I also expect the Maverick defense to stop the CU running game early and then get after the quarterback. I wish I could say that I thought this would be a great game, but MSU is simply the better football team. Minnesota State 41 Concord 23

West Georgia (12-2) at CSU-Pueblo (12-1)
TV:ESPN3 at 6:30 PM Eastern

These two teams actually have many similarities. Both have extremely opportunistic defenses that force turnovers. Both have great return men- Stephan Dickens for CSU-Pueblo and Denarius Appling for UWG- that have the ability to change a game each time they touch the football. Both teams have had a tendency to get up on their opponent early and then let their defense go to work.

To me, a huge key to this game will be whether one team or the other can get out to an early lead. If either can, it would put them at a huge advantage in this game. The reason I feel this way is that neither team is really built to come from behind and both have a tremendous pass rush which would put a lot of pressure on the opposing offense if they are forced out of their element.

I really feel this is going to be a very close, low scoring game. It will probably be a situation where a big play one way or another decides it. Part of me thinks that West Georgia will win because their athleticism on defense (especially up front) will be very difficult for the Thunderwolves to deal with. The other part of me feels that the Thunderwolves will win because the Wolves are simply bound to run out of gas after five straight weeks on the road. This should be a great game. West Georgia 20 CSU-Pueblo 19

Mailbag

[Q] What do you think Bloomsburg needs to do to become one of the elite teams in Division II?
John

[A] In order to compete at the very top of D2, Bloomsburg needs to get bigger and more physical in both the offensive and defensive lines. That is the biggest need that I see. Defensive team speed would need to be addressed a bit as well but that is easier to fix than the lines. They could also use a game changer at quarterback as the guys they have had recently have been nothing special from a talent standpoint.

To do all of this Bloomsburg would probably need to double their available scholarship money so that they could go out of state a little bit more for recruits and land a transfer here and there when they are available. The increased scholarship money would be difficult in the PSAC because of Pennsylvania's requirement that all such funds must come from private sources.

[Q] Who is your D2 coach of the year?
Marty

[A] I would have to go with Will Hall from West Georgia. To take over a program that had one winning season in the previous eight and take them all the way to the national semifinals is a great accomplishment.

Contact

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