Bob Eblen's National Column

September 1st, 2015 12:00am

One of the interesting trends in D2 football over the last decade or so is the success that new programs have been able to have in a sport that tends to be dominated by traditional powers. Schools like UNC-Pembroke, Ohio Dominican and New Haven have started football programs and had almost immediate success, with each of those schools making a pair of recent D2 playoff appearances.

But last season Colorado State-Pueblo took the "new football team" phenomenon to a new level. In just their seventh season since reinstating a program that had been dormant for over three decades, the Thunderwolves won it all, defeating Minnesota State 13-0 in the National Championship game to cap a 14-1 season.

With 15 starters returning to a program that has won 52 of its last 56 games, the Thunderwolves do not appear to be going anywhere and would top my short list of teams that will contend for the national championship this season. On offense CSUP must replace the leadership of quarterback Chris Bonner, but the Thunderwolves return running back Cameron McDondle (2014 rushing yards, 16 touchdowns) and a veteran offensive line. Defensively, the Thunderwolves must replace All-America defensive end Darius Allen and a pair of standout cornerbacks, but under the leadership of John Wristen CSUP always seems to field a fast and aggressive defense. I will not be surprised if the Thunderwolves make it back to Kansas City in December.

Other teams on my short list to contend for the national championship this season:

Minnesota State (14-1)
The Mavericks return All-Americans Josh Gordon and Tyler Henderson to what should be a very stout defense. They also return running back Connor Thomas (1363 rushing yards) and a pair of experienced quarterbacks. What will determine if the Mavericks can return to Kansas City is the development of an offensive line that must replace four starters. The Mavericks are the top ranked team in our poll and we will find out in a hurry about them as they take on seventh ranked Minnesota-Duluth on Thursday night.

West Georgia (12-3)
What a job Will Hall did in his first season at UWG as he took a team that was 5-6 in 2013 and got them all the way to the national semifinals before losing in a heart breaker to CSU-Pueblo. The Wolves return seven starters on offense, led by senior quarterback Dallas Dickey. Defensively the Wolves also return seven starters and have added a several talented transfers to the mix. If all the talent can come together, this could be a big year for the Wolves.

Ohio Dominican (11-2)
The Panthers won a pair of playoff games last year before losing by three points to CSU-Pueblo in the quarterfinals. With the exception of departed quarterback Mark Miller, ODU returns just about everyone of significance from last season*s team: The top 11 tacklers are back on defense and 15 returnees were named to the GLIAC all-conference team in 2014. If the Panthers have an adequate replacement for Miller, this team will have an outstanding year.

Ferris State (11-1)
Quarterback Jason Vander Laan (52 total touchdowns last season) won the Harlon Hill Trophy last year and is back to lead the Bulldogs. He is surrounded by talent on an offense that averaged 46.8 points per game last fall. If the Bulldogs can improve some defensively (they gave up a total of 161 points over their last four games), they will be right in the national championship mix.

North Alabama (9-2)
The Lions lost two games by a total of seven points last year, so they were not far off from having a great season. Veteran quarterback Luke Wingo returns to lead what should be a very solid offense. UNA brought in several transfers on defense to help shore up a unit that allowed 172 yards per game on the ground last fall. If the Lions can get back to dominating on defense they will have will have a very good year.

Sioux Falls (11-1)
The Cougars* lone loss in 2014 was to Minnesota State in a game in which the Cougars led in the fourth quarter. All eleven wins were by double digits on a team that had just seven seniors on the roster. If the Cougars can get a bit more physical up front on defense, they have everything else in place to make a run the national championship.

A few other teams to keep an eye on:

Valdosta State (10-3)
The Blazers must replace 23 seniors for last year*s team but this program has strong tradition and there is talent (like senior running back Cedric O*Neal) to build around.

Northwest Missouri (10-2)
It is strange not to have the Bearcats on the short list of national title contenders, but they graduated 21 seniors, including seven defensive starters.

Minnesota-Duluth (13-1)
The Bulldogs have talent, but question marks on defense have me thinking this team is a year away.

Angelo State (9-3)
Quarterback Kyle Washington is among the best in D2, but can the Rams play enough defense to win in the playoffs?

Pittsburg State (11-2)
The Gorillas were hit hard by graduation, but are a program that tends to reload rather than rebuild.

Concord (13-1)
The Mountain Lions won Super Region One last season and appear to have the talent to do so once again.

Delta State (9-2)
If the Statesmen can rebuild on the offensive line they will be once again be in the mix.

Top Storylines to Watch in 2015

Expansion of the Playoff Field
The playoff field expands from 24 to 28 teams this fall, which means seven teams qualify in each region. This should help to eliminate some controversy, such as a 10-1 Sioux Falls team being left out last year. With seven teams in each region, the top seed will receive a first round bye while the other six teams play.

A wide open MIAA
Northwest Missouri and Pittsburg State typically have a stranglehold on this league, but with both programs going through some significant rebuilding, it would seem like a good time for someone else to step in and have a big year. Central Missouri and Missouri Western seem to be the teams most likely to make a strong push towards the top of the league.

Can Grand Valley rebound? 
After reaching the national semifinals in 2013, the Lakers won just six games last year- their lowest win total since 1999. The 2015 Lakers will be very inexperienced at quarterback but do have a great deal of talent returning, especially up front on both sides of the ball. It will be tough for GVSU to overcome Ohio Dominican or Ferris State in the GLIAC, but I definitely think the Lakers will win more games this year and make a push for a playoff berth.

Can the PSAC regain its swagger? 
This conference sees itself as the big dog in Super Region One, but the fact is that a PSAC team has only won the region once in the last four years. I see some solid teams in this conference, but none that I feel are likely to win the region.

Jason Vander Laan goes for a second straight Harlon Hill Trophy
The Ferris State quarterback could become the first repeat winner since Danny Woodhead in 2007. Vander Laan should once again have another huge year as he is surrounded by talent on offense. Other top contenders for the award would be Lake Erie College running back Anthony Bilal, who finished third in 2014, and Angelo State quarterback Kyle Washington.

Top Games in Week One

Lenoir-Rhyne at West Chester
This is a rematch of a 2013 national semifinal game. LRU and WCU were both back in the playoffs last year and combined to win 22 games, so both of these programs are used to winning. However, both teams also have significant holes to fill this fall due to graduation. Lenoir-Rhyne 30 West Chester 24

Minnesota Duluth at Minnesota State
It does not get much bigger than this as these two teams played for the Super Region Three championship last season. Even though the Mavericks have some rebuilding to do on the offensive line, I have to give them a slight edge in this one. Minnesota State 23 Minnesota-Duluth 19

Wayne State at Michigan Tech
These two teams are top contenders to challenge Ferris State in the GLIAC North Division this fall. MTU will have to replace record-setting quarterback Tyler Scandrett, so I give the Warriors a slight edge in this one. Wayne State 27 Michigan Tech 24

Missouri Western at Central Missouri
MWSU has won eleven of the last twelve in this series, including four straight. The Griffons also have experience returning in the backfield while UCM does not. I think this gives MWSU a slight advantage. Missouri Western 24 Central Missouri 20

Azusa Pacific at West Texas A&M
APU went 10-1 last year, but will have to regroup due to the loss of star running back Terrell Watson and eight defensive starters. WTAMU returns 19 starters and is attempting to rebound from a 6-5 season, which was the program*s lowest win total since 2004. West Texas A&M 35 Azusa Pacific 24

California (PA) at Virginia State
VSU won a playoff game and went 10-3 last year while California finished 8-2, just missing the playoffs. I like the Vulcans in this game because of the playmaking ability of senior quarterback James Harris, but I would not be surprised if this is a close game. California 31 Virginia State 23

Central Washington at CSU-Pueblo
The Wildcats were 7-4 a year ago, but will have to show that they have improved their run defense if they are going to stick with the defending national champs. CSU-Pueblo 34 Central Washington 17

National Division II Games of the Week

Minnesota Duluth at Minnesota State        
Thursday, September 3    
7pm EDT
ESPN3

Central Washington at CSU-Pueblo
Saturday, September 5
7pm EDT
NCAA.com

The NCAA and its Division II members have expanded the national coverage of Division II Football and other sports throughout the 2015-2016 academic year.  Two great games kick off the 2015 season.  The Minnesota Duluth/Minnesota State game can be viewed on ESPN3 (watchespn.com) while the Central Washington/CSU-Pueblo game can be seen on ESPN.com and on the following channels:

D2Football.com will publish a complete list of games, dates, and times for you to use as a viewing guide.

Mailbag

[Q] Will the implosion of the GLIAC this summer have a major impact on D2 football? (Ohio Dominican, Findlay, Malone, Hillsdale, Walsh and Lake Erie all announced that they will leave the GLIAC to join the GMAC. Malone starts play in the GMAC in 2016; the other five schools join in 2017)

[A] I do not see this as being a huge issue because the GLIAC still retains nine members. They will probably add another school or two and continue with business as usual. The GMAC will have seven schools that play football in 2017, so there may be a bit more of a scheduling issue in that conference. It might be interesting, however, to see where these two leagues are placed if the regions are adjusted as is currently being discussed.

When it comes down to it, I think the main two factors for these teams leaving the GLIAC are travel distances and a desire of the ones leaving to be in a conference with other private schools. The distance to get to the three Upper Peninsula schools in Michigan is daunting for the Ohio schools and it gets tough on a D2 budget to send teams up there.

I also think this breakup speaks to the inherent instability in these D2 "super-conferences", especially the ones that are spread out geographically. At the D2 level it is very tough to get schools that are 600 plus miles apart on the same page, particularly when there other options nearby. The Lone Star Conference breaking up a few years ago is another good example of this.

Another interesting thing I would like to point out: unlike in D-I where every program is clamoring to get into a power conference like the SEC or Big 10, in D2 conference prestige really matters very little to the schools. In D2 there are no big TV contracts or other financial considerations tying schools to the "power" leagues so they are more apt to choose leagues where they can be competitive and be with other schools with similar missions.

Contact

Feel free to contact me with any comments or criticisms or if you have a question you'd like answered in the Mailbag.