December 1st, 2015 12:00am
One of the most interesting things about Division II is the fact that when it comes to the playoffs, the outcomes are as wide open and unpredictable as anywhere in college football. That fact was on display last week with four of the eight higher seeded home teams losing games. In addition, two number one seeds- Shepherd and West Georgia- had to rally from fourth quarter deficits to stay alive.
Even though the unpredictability makes the following task difficult, I still thought it would be fun to look at the eight remaining teams and place them in order of who I feel is most likely to win the national championship:
Northwest Missouri State: After limiting Humboldt State to an absurdly low total of 48 yards of offense last week, the Bearcats have to be the favorite to win it all. In addition to the great defense, senior quarterback Blake Bolles is playing the best football of his career right now. They should play at home all the way until the championship game, which would in turn be another pseudo home game with it being played in Kansas City. Northwest should dispatch conference rival Emporia State this week which could potentially set up an epic semifinal game with West Georgia.
West Georgia: The Wolves definitely cannot overlook Tuskegee, but I am already salivating over a potential semifinal matchup between UWG and NWMSU. While I think the Wolves would be an underdog on the road, they are the one team left in the tournament with the overall mixture of size, athleticism and experience at quarterback required to give the Bearcats a battle.
CSU-Pueblo: The defending national champs have a great running game and defense. However, they also have a freshman quarterback that they do not seem to be willing to open up the playbook for. Maybe AJ Thompson is up to the task, and sooner or later we will find out. The last time a team with a freshman quarterback won it all was in 2003 with Cullen Finnerty at Grand Valley, who of course was a very special player. I could see CSU-Pueblo reaching the championship game again, but I think the Thunderwolves would be pretty heavy underdogs against Northwest Missouri or West Georgia.
Grand Valley: The Lakers are in a good place as they have already avenged their two regular season losses in the playoffs and should be brimming with confidence. However, to win it all the Lakers would have to win two more road games and likely have to beat either NWMSU or UWG in the championship game. As well as they have played in the first two rounds, a national championship team needs to be special defensively and the Lakers just are not there.
Shepherd: This may be the best team Monte Cater has had at Shepherd. The Rams are favorites to win Super Region One which would mean a likely home game in the semifinals which would be huge. However, the Rams do not have a great running game and after this round they will be playing teams that are bigger/faster/stronger. I will believe that a SR1 team can win it all when I see it.
Tuskegee: The Golden Tigers' win over North Alabama last week was huge and should be extremely beneficial going forward as Willie Slater builds this team into a consistent national title contender. But to keep advancing Tuskegee will need to beat West Georgia on the road this week and potentially Northwest Missouri State on the road in the semifinals. That is too much to ask.
Emporia State: The Hornets have proven through the first two rounds that they are a good football team. In fact, there are probably three or four other teams remaining that I think ESU is better than. The problem for the Hornets, of course, is that they must beat Northwest Missouri State this week to advance. ESU has lost 21 straight to Northwest and has not been within 14 points since 2003.
Slippery Rock: SRU has the potential to knock off Shepherd this week if things well, but I just do not see The Rock advancing beyond that. They have too many holes defensively to play with the best teams in the country.
Region Championship Games
Super Region One
Slippery Rock (12-1) at Shepherd (11-0)
The Rams proved their defense was for real last week when they basically shut down a prolific IUP rushing attack. They will face an even larger challenge this week against an SRU offense that does not just run the ball effectively but can be explosive in the passing game as well. The one caveat to this is that SRU standout running back Shamar Greene was injured near the end of SRU's win over Assumption last week. Greene is a difference maker and if he is unable to go, the SRU offense is not as explosive.
The Rams had trouble moving the football in their win over IUP, but SRU is a better match up for them in the sense that The Rock has had trouble stopping the passing game at times last season. It happened again last week when they nearly blew a 22 point second half lead against Assumption. The Rock has balanced the fact that they have given up some yards through the air by being a team that creates interceptions and turnovers. But Shepherd quarterback Jeff Ziemba has thrown just three interceptions all season and the Rams have turned the ball over just ten times.
At the end of the day I think this will be a competitive game but I give the Rams the edge because they are playing at home, they generally play mistake free football and they are outstanding on special teams. Shepherd 27 Slippery Rock 23
Super Region Two
Tuskegee (10-2) at West Georgia (11-1)
The fact that UWG struggled to beat Tuskegee 20-17 in the first round of the playoffs last season means that there should be zero chance that the Wolves will be caught looking ahead. The Golden Tigers' win over North Alabama last week should further have the Wolves attention.
Tuskegee has been successful the first two rounds of the playoffs because they have done a good job of stopping their opponents' running games. It is absolutely paramount that the Golden Tigers succeed in that part of the game against UWG. If the Wolves can grind it out on the ground, they will control the game and the field position which will make it very tough on the Tuskegee offense. I think another key for the Golden Tigers to have a good shot is that they need a good game from quarterback Kevin Lacey. Lacey runs well and has a good arm but has only completed 44% of his passes this year and threw four interceptions last week. He must play well for TU to win.
It would not surprise me at all if Tuskegee plays well in this game, but at the end of the day the size and speed of West Georgia on both sides of the ball will be too much for the Golden Tigers to overcome. West Georgia 27 Tuskegee 16
Super Region Three
Emporia State (11-2) at Northwest Missouri (12-0)
When these two teams met a month ago, the Bearcats out gained ESU 512 to 240 in winning the game 44-10. In other words, it was not much of a game at all. And it was not as if the Hornets had a bunch of turnovers or mistakes that can be corrected to close the gap. They simply got dominated.
For ESU to have a chance this time a couple of things will need to happen. For one, the Hornets will need to be at least plus three in the turnover department. That would mean mistake free football by ESU and a bunch of mistakes by Northwest. Secondly, ESU has to find some way to run the football. The Hornets managed just 56 yards on 32 carries in the first contest and I think they need to get in the 150 range to take some pressure off quarterback Brent Wilson. How to run the football against an outstanding Northwest defense is another matter.
ESU has forced a remarkable 12 turnovers through their first two playoff games and those takeaways are the main reason the seventh seeded Hornets have made it this far. Stranger things have happened but I doubt the Hornets can force Northwest into that many mistakes, especially when these teams have familiarity being members of the same conference. Northwest Missouri State 41 Emporia State 20
Super Region Four
Grand Valley (11-2) at CSU-Pueblo (12-1)
These two teams met two years ago in a second round game at CSU-Pueblo. After a high-scoring first half in which GVSU held a 27-23 lead, it turned into more of a defensive struggle in the second half. The Laker defense made three stops in their own territory in the fourth quarter to escape with a 34-30 win.
Of course both teams have many new starters on both sides of the ball, but a couple of the stars still remain. CSU-Pueblo's Cameron McDondle rushed for 126 yards and a touchdown in the 2013 game and GVSU star receiver Jamie Potts caught six passes for 123 yards and a touchdown that day. Both will play a major role once again on Saturday.
The formula for the Thunderwolves so far in the postseason is to get an early lead and then just grind it out on the ground. It has worked because their first two opponents were not real explosive offensively. I do not think that strategy will work against a GVSU team that is clicking right now offensively: CSU-Pueblo freshman quarterback AJ Thompson will have to make some plays with his arm in this game. I think this will be a great game between two championship programs that comes down to a play or two. CSU-Pueblo 28 Grand Valley 26
Bowl Games
Mineral Water Bowl
Minnesota-Duluth (8-3) versus Fort Hays State (8-3)
Both teams love to keep the ball on the ground, so expect this to be a fast moving game. The Bulldogs have been hit hard with injuries and will be missing key players in quarterback Drew Bauer and running back Logan Lauters. Fort Hays State 24 Minnesota-Duluth 20
Live United Texarkana Bowl
Central Oklahoma (6-5) versus Southwestern Oklahoma State (8-3)
These two old rivals now play in different conferences and have not met since 2011. Both teams come into this game hot as the Bronchos have won six of seven after an 0-4 start while the Bulldogs have won six straight games. Central Oklahoma 34 Southwestern Oklahoma State 24
CHAMPS Heart of Texas Bowl
Arkansas Tech (8-3) versus Eastern New Mexico (6-5)
ENMU is limping into this game as losers of three straight. However, the Greyhounds can be explosive offensively with their ground attack and it will take a big effort from the ATU defense to slow them down. Eastern New Mexico 38 Arkansas Tech 30
Mailbag
[Q] Tuskegee has always been a strong HBCU program, what is it that is pushing teams in the SIAC and CIAA to be competitive nationally in D2 football?
[A] I think Winston-Salem State's success in 2011 and 2012 has given the other good HBCU programs like Tuskegee motivation to compete on a national level. Before 2013, Tuskegee opted not to participate in the D2 playoffs and instead played in the Turkey Day Classic against FCS Alabama State. It is my understanding that a big part of the reason that Tuskegee changed course and decided to play in the D2 playoffs is because of WSSU's success. With the playoff success Tuskegee has had, I think the decision to participate in the D2 postseason has been a good one.
Contact
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