Bob Eblen's National Column

August 30th, 2016 12:00am

Bob Eblen's National Column

 

Northwest Missouri State capped a 15-0 season last year with another national championship, the fifth in program history and the second in three years. While the 2015 Bearcats were no slouch offensively, what won them the championship was a dominating defense that allowed just 59 rushing yards and 224 total yards of offense per game.

Modern college football is a game that has increasingly been dominated by the offenses. In 2008 just 38 D2 teams averaged over 400 yards of total offense per game. Last season in D2 there were 83 such teams. You would think that the increased offensive outputs would mean that a high scoring team would be winning national championships, but that hasn't been the case.

The formula for winning a D2 national championship remains the same as it has been for decades: a team must have a very good to great defense that can match up with any style of play. Offensively, a team just needs to be balanced and efficient. If those two things are in place, a team can be a true contender for the title.

When looking at a list of teams this season that meet those requirements, Northwest Missouri State again is at the very top of the list. The Bearcats return nine starters to a defensive unit that should be among the best in the country yet again. The Bearcats will be more inexperienced on the offensive side of the ball, but it's not like they will need to score 45 points per game to win.

The other team I feel has a great shot to win it all is West Georgia (12-2 last year). The Wolves were probably the second best team in D2 each of the last two seasons and they return plenty of talent, especially on the defensive side of the ball where they allowed just 249 yards per game. Third year coach Will Hall is as good as anyone in the country at getting transfers to mesh with existing talent and he has once again brought in a number of impact transfers this offseason, including former Louisville starting quarterback Will Gardner.

A few other teams to watch for in 2016:

Grand Valley (12-3): The young Lakers caught fire towards the end of last season, winning three playoff games to reach the semifinals. Junior quarterback Bart Williams is back to lead what should be a very explosive offense. To contend with teams like NWMSU and UWG, the Lakers must get much better defensively.

Shepherd (13-1): The Rams reached the title game last year, but were clearly overmatched by NWMSU in that game. They do have the luxury of returning Harlon Hill finalist Jeff Ziemba at quarterback, but must replace 11 starters.

Ashland (10-1): The Eagles went unbeaten in the regular season last year, but fell to Grand Valley in the first round of the playoffs. AU returns 17 starters, led by quarterback Travis Tarnowski (3121 passing yards, 30 touchdowns), running back Vance Settlemire (1116 rushing yards, 13 touchdowns) and All-American tight end Adam Sheehan (803 receiving yards, 10 touchdowns).

Central Missouri (8-3): The Mules weren't even a playoff team last year, but are definitely on most people's radar this season as they are ranked 10th in our preseason poll. They return standout quarterback Garrett Fugate (26 total touchowns) and nine starters to a defensive unit that ranked second in the MIAA to Northwest Missouri in many of the main categories.

North Alabama (9-3): The Lions must replace Luke Wingo at quarterback. But they do have the luxury of returning eight starters on the defensive side of the ball and will have nine seniors starting on defense this fall. If Jacob Tucker is up to the task of replacing Wingo, UNA could be a championship contender this season.

Reseeding the Semifinals

In the past the semifinal match ups have been predetermined. For example, last season SR1 played SR4 and SR2 played SR3. Starting this season, the four semifinal teams will be reseeded in an attempt to give the best two teams an opportunity to play in the title game. The criteria will be similar to what is used to seed the playoff field. There are no other changes being made to the overall playoff criteria this year. The regions also remain the same this season.

New Additions to D2

It has been well documented over the years in my column about the level of success new programs have had in D2 football over the last decade, the best example being Colorado State-Pueblo, which went from a start up to a national champion in just six years. There are two new programs coming this fall that D2 fans should be very excited about: West Florida and Texas-Permian Basin.

UWF is located in Pensacola, Florida and will play in the Gulf South Conference. Pete Shinnick- who also guided North Carolina-Pembroke through the startup process a few years ago- will be the Argonauts head coach. This is a program that has the potential to be among the best in D2 in a very short amount of time. UWF is located in a prime region for recruiting and took the extra time to get started to make sure everything was in place and funded properly.

UTPB is located in the football hotbed of Odessa, Texas (think Friday Night Lights). The Falcons will be playing in the Lone Star Conference and like UWF, appear to be doing things right as they build it up. This is another program that will be fun to watch develop.

Potential New D2 Legislation

In January at the upcoming NCAA Convention, D2 members will have an opportunity to vote on legislation that would streamline the way scholarship equivalencies are counted. 

Right now, most forms of academic and need-based aid count towards the scholarship equivalency limit of 36 in football. If the new legislation passes, academic and need-based aid given to a student athlete would no longer count towards the limit.

If this passes, it could make a huge difference in the "actual" amount of aid institutions could give. This could be especially beneficial for private schools as they could discount tuition and not have it count towards the 36 equivalencies as it does now. Expect to hear more talk about this as we get closer to the Convention in January.

Harlon Hill Watch List

These are my six preseason favorites to win the award. Please note that I am taking into account not only the player, but also the supporting cast when I consider my list of favorites. There are obviously other great players out there that may not put up the numbers or play in conferences or offensive systems that make it difficult to pile up the numbers needed to win the award.

Ja'Quan Gardner JR RB Humboldt State: Gardner was a finalist for the award last season after torching defenses to the tune of 2266 yards and 25 touchdowns on the ground. I expect Gardner to have another huge year not only because of his talent, but because he has also has a very good supporting cast surrounding him.

Jeff Ziemba SR QB Shepherd: Ziemba led Shepherd to the national championship game and was a finalist for the award last season. He was in the top five in the country in pass efficiency (163.7) and threw 30 touchdown passes against just five interceptions. He will also have the benefit of having Billy Brown to target with his passes. In my opinion Brown is the best all-around receiver in the country.

Trey Heid SR QB Augustana: Heid is a four year starter that passed for nearly 7900 yards and accounted for 79 career touchdowns. He passed for 3493 yards last season and is poised to have a huge senior year due to the talent surrounding him: a pair of 1,000 yard receivers in Charlie Hayes and Matt Heller. He will also be protected in the pocket by a pair of All-NSIC offensive tackles. To truly have a great senior season Heid must cut down on the 14 interceptions he threw last year.

Austin Ekeler SR RB Western State: Ekeler ran for 1637 yards last season at a very impressive 7.2 yards per attempt. For his career he has rushed for 4362 yards and he will be playing in a dynamic offense that has several veteran players returning. If Ekeler can stay healthy and get the carries, he is poised to have a huge senior year.

Luke Papilion SR QB Sioux Falls: Papilion is a four year starter that has compiled 2583 rushing yards, 6334 passing yards and 82 touchdowns already in his career. He plays on a high powered offense that is virtually intact from last season. I have every reason to believe Papilion will have a huge senior season.

Justin Dvorak SR QB Colorado Mines: In ten starts last season, Dvorak had six games of at least 382 passing yards including a pair of games with more than 500 yards in the air. For his career, he has passed for 8882 yards and 81 touchdowns. The Orediggers do need to replace five offensive starters so although I expect Dvorak to have another good season, putting up the huge numbers it would take to win the Harlon Hill is a question. The Orediggers play Colorado State-Pueblo in week one so we will find out a great deal about what to expect from Dvorak early in the season.

Bart Williams JR QB Grand Valley: Williams had a huge year as a first year starter, throwing for 4206 yards and 45 touchdowns. With the talent surrounding him in the Laker offense, he should have another big season in 2016.

Top Games this Week (2015 records in parentheses)

Humboldt State (10-2) at Carson-Newman (9-3)

There are several great games this week, but this may be the most intriguing of all. HSU and standout running back Ja'Quan Gardner will travel over 2500 miles to Tennessee to take on the Eagles. Both of these teams were in the playoffs last season.

In addition to Gardner, the Lumberjacks are loaded on offense, with almost every key player returning from last season. Where HSU may be lacking is on defense, where the Lumberjacks did suffer some key losses. However, they have had an entire offseason to prepare for C-N's veer offense and that should be of some benefit if they are able to hold up athletically. Normally I would pick the home team in a game like this, but I think HSU can move the football and will do just enough to slow down an Eagle offense that is replacing its quarterback and top running back from a season ago. Humboldt State 43 Carson-Newman 38

Sioux Falls (10-2) at St. Cloud State (6-5)

The Huskies lost five games last year, but four by a single score, including a pair of one point losses. With just eight seniors graduating after last season, SCSU is definitely a team to watch out for in the NSIC. The Husky offense is led by senior All-America receiver Jameson Parsons, who had 1272 yards and seven 100-yard receiving games last season.

The Cougars are coming off their first playoff appearance as a D2 program. Offensively, USF is loaded with eight starters returning to an offense that averaged over 470 yards per game last year. Senior quarterback Luke Papillion is a four-year regular and a player that can beat teams with his arm or legs. However, the Cougars were hit hard by graduation on the defensive side of the ball so they may be involved in some shootouts this season, including the potential for that to happen in this game. SCSU has the talent to play with USF, but the overall explosiveness of the Cougar offense should eventually win out. Sioux Falls 42 St. Cloud State 31

Central Missouri (8-3) at Pittsburg State (6-5)

These two teams were picked by both the coaches and the media as the second and third ranked teams in the MIAA preseason polls. As I mentioned earlier, the Mules are poised to have a big season and are led by senior quarterback Garrett Fugate, who is one of the top dual threat signal callers in D2. UCM also has a new defensive coordinator in Wes Bell, who was poached from rival Missouri Western this past offseason. Bell has a track record of fielding some very good defenses.

PSU had a down season by Gorilla standards last year. An injury to starting quarterback John Roderique rendered the offense one dimensional and the defense struggled, allowing over 400 yards per game in what was a rebuilding year. Roderique is back healthy and the Gorillas have the advantage of this being a Thursday night home game. I still think UCM will come out on top. Central Missouri 31 Pittsburg State 21

Minnesota-Duluth (9-3) at Southwest Minnesota State (8-3)

The Mustangs had a breakthrough season last year as they won eight games for the first time in 24 years. They did it with an offense that averaged 485 yards per game. Junior quarterback Blake Gimbel returns after throwing for over 3000 yards last season. The issue is that Mustangs must replace four starters that combined for 44 starts last year on the offensive line. The Bulldogs and their aggressive defense may have a field day with that relatively green unit. Not to mention the SMSU defense will have its hands full with the UMD running game. Minnesota-Duluth 34 Southwest Minnesota 23

Ohio Dominican (8-3) at Ferris State (11-1)

These have been two of the most successful teams in the GLIAC over the past few years but both will undergo significant changes this season. FSU must replace two-time Harlon Hill winning quarterback Jason Vander Laan and All-American Justin Zimmer on the defensive line. ODU will have a new head coach in Kelly Cummings and the Panthers were hit hard by the loss of a strong senior class that helped the program to a 37-9 record over the last four seasons.
Despite the loss of Vander Laan, I have to give FSU an edge in this game because the Bulldogs return plenty of talent on defense and on the offensive line. Ferris State 27 Ohio Dominican 20

Northwest Missouri (15-0) at Emporia State (11-3)

The Hornets have quietly developed into a very solid program the last few years under the leadership Garin Higgins. However, the one program the Hornets have not been competitive with is NWMSU; ESU lost twice last year to the Bearcats by a combined score of 82-27. The Hornets have lost 22 straight in the series and haven't been within two scores since 2003. It might be an understatement to say that the Bearcats have the psychological advantage.

Both teams have a host of returning players but they will both also be breaking in new quarterbacks. The Thursday night home game should help ESU if the Hornets can establish some momentum early, but even if the Bearcats struggle some offensively their defense led by All-Americans Collin Bevins, Kevin Berg and Jacob Vollstedt should help them prevail. Northwest Missouri 30 Emporia State 13

CSU-Pueblo (12-2) at Colorado Mines (8-3)

These two programs have been the class of the RMAC the last few seasons, but CSUP has definitely had the upper hand. The Thunderwolves have won five straight in the series, including a 49-21 win last year. As good as the Justin Dvorak and the CSM passing game have been, the Orediggers just haven't been able to quite hang with speed and athleticism that the Thunderwolves have possessed on defense the last few seasons.

Dvorak led the nation in passing yards per game last season and he is poised for a big senior year. But the CSUP defense is still very strong and the Thunderwolves should be able to impose their will with Bernard McDondle and the running game. CSU-Pueblo 35 Colorado Mines 24

Bloomsburg (7-4) at Stonehill (7-4)

The Huskies suffered a miserable 27-10 loss to Stonehill in the season opener last year as Bloomsburg had its worst season since 2003. It will be interesting to see if the Huskies can exact revenge against the Skyhawks, who have developed into a solid program. Bloomsburg 24 Stonehill 17

Kutztown (7-4) at Assumption (11-2)

The Greyhounds defeated KU 41-37 in the season open last year and it catapulted the program to the best season in school history. The Greyhounds return their top eight tacklers, a pair of experienced quarterbacks, 1,000 yard rusher Alex Shain, and sophomore receiver Deonte Harris, who was one of the most dynamic freshmen in D2 last season. In other words, Assumption is poised for another big year. KU returns 15 starters and has playoff potential as well. However, the Golden Bears will be breaking in a new quarterback and playing on the road. Assumption 31 Kutztown 24

New Haven (7-4) at Slippery Rock (12-2)

This game will feature two of the most dynamic backs in D2- Shamar Greene from SRU (1545 yards, 14 touchdowns) and Andre Anderson from UNH (1150 yards, 14 touchdowns). These two players alone will make this game worth the prices of admission. However, both teams were hit pretty hard by graduation and for the first time in 28 years The Rock will have a new head coach roaming the sidelines after the retirement of George Mihalik. With so many unknowns on both sides this one is tough to call. Slippery Rock 30 New Haven20

Catawba (9-3) at West Georgia (12-2)

These two teams met last year in the season opener, with UWG dominating in a 44-13 win. Both teams went on to make the playoffs, with the Wolves reaching the semifinals for a second consecutive season. If Catawba is going to stay in this one, the Indians must find a way to move the football against an outstanding UWG defensive front. Easier said than done. West Georgia 34 Catawba 17

Florida Tech (7-4) at Newberry (7-5)

These two teams met last year in the season opener. Newberry won 31-28. Both teams finished with the same regular season record but Newberry made the playoffs and FTU did not, mainly because of the head to head result. The Panthers have gradually gotten a little better in each of their first three seasons as a program and with a huge senior class they appear poised to make another run at the playoffs this fall. Florida Tech 33 Newberry 27

Albany State (6-4) at Valdosta State (9-3)

These two teams are in different conferences but are just 90 minutes apart. VSU has won seven straight in the series, including 21-13 last year. Both teams were hit fairly hard by graduation so there unknowns for both teams going into this game. I have to give VSU the edge since the Blazers are playing at home and have dominated in this series. Valdosta State 23 Albany State 7

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