Bob Eblen's National Column

November 15th, 2016 12:00am

Bob Eblen's National Column

 

One of the great coaching careers in college football history came to an end this week with the retirement of Ken Sparks.

Sparks coached the last 37 years at Carson-Newman, compiling an incredible 338-99-2 record. The 338 wins are fifth in NCAA history to go along with five NAIA national championships and three appearances in the D2 national championship game. Coach Sparks has been battling cancer for the past four years and he said at his retirement press conference that his health was a major factor in the decision to retire.

His Carson-Newman teams will be remembered for the split back veer offenses that gave opposing defenses fits over the years. His Eagles were on the losing end of the epic 58-52 four overtime 1999 national championship game to Northwest Missouri State, which is widely regarded as the best game in D2 history.

But more than anything, Ken Sparks will be remembered in D2 circles as a class act. Win or lose he carried himself in a very dignified manner. I would like to personally wish Ken Sparks a happy retirement and good health.

Playoff Field Announced

The playoff field of 28 teams has been selected so it is time to play for a championship. When looking at the field overall, I think the committee did a pretty good job this season of selecting and ranking the teams.

Earned access came into play in both SR1 and SR2, but I do not really have a problem with it. In SR1, CIAA champion Winston-Salem State (9-2) bumped Edinboro (9-2) via earned access. WSSU has won eight straight games after a slow start. Edinboro had a nice season after finishing 0-11 a year ago, but the Scots' two losses were to Indiana by 28 points and California by 45 points. I would rather see the CIAA champion in the field than a team that basically finished a distant third in the PSAC.

In SR2 Tuskegee (8-2) bumped West Alabama (7-4) via earned access. Tuskegee failed to reach the SIAC title game and finished the regular season with a 45-35 loss to Virginia State on Saturday. But UWA had three D2 losses and no notable wins while Tuskegee handed UNC-Pembroke its only loss this fall. I would rather see a team from the SIAC in the field rather than a fourth team from the GSC.

The only thing I really question is in SR2 with Newberry getting the two seed and Florida Tech the three seed. FIT beat Newberry in the season opener and I thought head to head results should have bumped FIT to the two seed in this region as that has been the way the rankings have operated the last several years.

Other thoughts on the playoff field:

-I think the top seed in each region is probably the best team in that region, which is a good thing. As I mentioned earlier this fall, I do not think Northwest Missouri earned the top seed in SR3 based on the criteria but I do believe the Bearcats are clearly the best team.

-In addition to the top seeds, I think Shepherd in SR1, Florida Tech in SR2, Sioux Falls in SR3 and Ferris State in SR4 are other top challengers in their respective regions.

-Assumption, Tuskegee, Azusa Pacific and Midwestern State all lost games on Saturday but all four still made the playoff field. Assumption was the only team of the four that ended up higher than a seven seed.

-None of the four teams that reached the semifinals two years ago- CSU-Pueblo, Minnesota State, West Georgia and Concord- made the playoffs this season. Those four teams combined for 19 losses this fall.

Playoffs- First Round

Super Region One

Indiana (9-1) at Fairmont State (10-1)

IUP's only loss this season was a three point defeat to top-seeded California, so the Crimson Hawks have had a very good season. However, they will enter the playoffs without their best player as star quarterback Lenny Williams suffered a knee injury two weeks ago. If last week's result is any indication, the IUP strategy going forward will be to rely on the running game and defense. IUP has forced 29 turnovers this year.

The Falcons are enjoying their best season in nearly 50 years and are making their first D2 playoff appearance. FSU is a team that relies on its defense: The Falcons have forced 31 turnovers and they allow just 96 rushing yards per game. FSU is led on offense by senior quarterback Cooper Hibbs, who has thrown for 2855 yards and 18 touchdowns.

I think this is going to be a very good game. Without Williams in the lineup, the Crimson Hawks are going to want to run the ball 50 plus times and try to wear down the FSU defense. I feel that turnovers and special teams are going to play a major role as well. 

Indiana 24 Fairmont State 19

Assumption (9-2) at Shepherd (11-0)

The Rams are the defending region champions and have had another great year. The offense is led by senior quarterback Jeff Ziemba, who has thrown for 2623 yards and 20 touchdowns in just nine games this year. Shepherd is also very good defensively, allowing just 16 points and 282 yards per game.

The good news for Greyhounds is that their defense matches up well with what Shepherd likes to do offensively. Assumption allows just 141 passing yards per contest to go along with 27 sacks and 16 interceptions. If the Greyhounds can limit the Rams' passing game they can stay in the game. However, Assumption struggled offensively in both losses to LIU-Post and I think the Shepherd defense is a notch better. Assumption quarterback Marc Monks completed just 38 of 87 passes with four interceptions in the two losses and he will need to be much more efficient than that for his team to have a chance against the Rams. 

Shepherd 30 Assumption 16

Winston-Salem State (9-2) at LIU Post (11-0)

After three wins by a field goal or less through the season's first five weeks, the Pioneers have turned it on in the second half, with their most impressive performance of the year coming last week in a 43-23 NE-10 championship game win over Assumption. Defensively, the Pioneers have done a pretty good job of stopping the run and have forced 27 turnovers this year. They have a balanced offense, with running back Malik Pierre accounting for 15 total touchdowns.

The Rams lost two of their first three games, with both losses coming at home. However, they have since won eight straight, including a 43-33 win over Bowie State in the CIAA title game last week. The Rams are a grind it out team that runs the ball about 65% of the time with Te'Vaughn Hurse and Kerrion Moore both eclipsing the 900 yard mark. Defensively, they have forced 25 turnovers, returning four of them for touchdowns.

The bottom line on this game: I think the Pioneer defense is good enough to limit the WSSU running game and take the Rams out of their comfort zone. I like the Pioneers at home. 

LIU-Post 27 Winston-Salem State 19

Super Region Two

UNC-Pembroke (9-1) at Valdosta State (8-2)

It is not often that a one loss team limps into the playoffs, but that is kind of what it feels like with UNC-Pembroke. The Braves managed just six first downs and 144 yards of offense in a 19-18 win over a 2-9 Concord team last week.

The Braves are not a team that blows you away with their overall ability. However, they do two things well that helps them win games. One, they have 31 sacks this year and have a knack for coming up with them at opportune times. And two, they have the best kicker in D2 in Matt Davis, who has connected on 25-28 field goal attempts including six from beyond 50 yards. In addition, nearly half of Davis' kickoffs have resulted in touchbacks and he has averaged 42.6 yards per punt since taking over those duties at mid-season.

The Blazers are the rare team that has successfully implemented a two quarterback system. Adam Robles and Roland Rivers have combined for over 3100 passing yards and 28 touchdowns already this year. Defensively, this is a ball hawking group that has 22 interceptions already this season. Gary Simon has been one of the nation's most dangerous punt returners with two run back for scores this fall.

The bottom line on this game: I think VSU has more talent. If the Blazers can force a couple of turnovers and limit the UNCP offense, then I think they win by a couple of scores. 

Valdosta State 29 UNC-Pembroke 17

North Greenville(7-4) at Florida Tech (8-2)

There is no doubt the Crusaders are battle tested, as they played five of the ten teams in the final SR2 rankings, going 2-3 in those games. NGU's other loss came to an unbeaten FSC team, The Citadel. The Crusaders run the ball about 60% of the time, relying on a deep stable of backs to spread out the workload. When they do throw it, they are efficient, as quarterback Will Hunter has thrown just three interceptions in 291 pass attempts.

Florida Tech is as talented as any team in the region and has really put it all together over the last three weeks, beating Valdosta State, West Georgia and Delta State by a combined 125-57 margin. The Panthers have out gained their opponents by 480 to 333 yards per game and they are dynamic on both sides of the football. The key players for FIT are quarterback Mark Cato (152 passer rating) and running back Antwuan Haynes (982 rushing yards, 6.6 yards per carry).

The weakness for FIT has been turnovers, as the Panthers have committed 26 of them this year. If they can hold on to the football, they will win this game and challenge for the region title. 

Florida Tech 38 North Greenville 20

Tuskegee (8-2) at Newberry (10-1)

After dropping the season opener to Florida Tech, the Wolves have won ten straight. They have done it with a balanced offense and a defense that allows just 307 yards per game. They have also been remarkably consistent during the ten game winning streak, scoring at least 27 points in every game and allowing more than 22 just once.

As I mentioned earlier, Tuskegee does not come in on a high note after being throttled by Virginia State last week. Quarterback Kevin Lacey is a solid player, but the Golden Tigers have turned the ball over 28 times and they are minus 15 in turnover differential for the year. They also have a poor kicking game and gave up touchdowns on both a kickoff and punt return against VSU. I think all signs point toward Newberry winning this game.

Newberry 27 Tuskegee 16

Super Region Three

Minnesota-Duluth (10-1) at Emporia State (10-1)

Remember how those national championship teams from UMD a few years ago dominated everyone with their defense? Well, this UMD team looks nothing like those old Bulldog teams. This UMD team is second in the nation in total offense at 543 yards per game, but has had trouble stopping anything resembling a good offense. UMD allows over 30 points per game, and while the Bulldogs are good against the run, they have given up 275 passing yards per game and 31 touchdown passes. The key player for UMD is senior quarterback Drew Bauer. A four-year starter, Bauer has passed for 3081 yards and is a very good runner as well.

ESU averages 5.2 yards per play on the season and they give up 5.0 yards per play. Just looking at that statistic you would think that the Hornets would be more like a six or seven win team. The reason why ESU has been so successful? The Hornets have forced 29 turnovers this year and are plus 17 in turnover margin. The Hornets are as good as any team in D2 at waiting for opponents to make mistakes and then capitalizing.

I am really torn on this game. As I mentioned before, the Bulldogs can be taken advantage of through the air, but the Hornets are not the same prolific passing offense they were last season. The Bulldogs are going to score points and they do not turn the ball over much which is what ESU thrives on. I still think the Hornets find a way to pull it out, but I expect a very good game. 

Emporia State 38 Minnesota-Duluth 34

Central Missouri (9-2) at Harding (11-0)

I am going to preface my thoughts on the game with this: I think Harding is the best team that we have seen from the GAC. The Bisons lead the nation in rushing out of their option offense at 389 yards per game. What makes them even harder to defend is that they spread the ball around so much: nine players have rushed for over 200 yards this season. The Bisons have been dominant on the other side of the ball as well, allowing 228 yards per game and forcing 31 turnovers. They have held seven of 11 opponents to single digits.

The Mules rely heavily on quarterback Garrett Fugate and receiver/return man Jaylen Zachary. Fugate leads the team in rushing attempts, has thrown for 3341 yards and accounted for 35 total touchdowns. Zachary is the team's leading receiver with 861 yards, but it his ability as a return man that really sets him apart. Zachary has three touchdowns on returns this season. The Mules are slightly above average defensively, but they do allow 367 yards per game.

It is tough to tell how these teams will match up when they both come from conferences that play insular schedules. However, I am going with Harding in this game. I think the option attack will be tough for UCM to prepare for on short notice and I think the Bisons' defense will be good enough to limit what the Mules can do. 

Harding 27 Central Missouri 23

Azusa Pacific (9-2) at Sioux Falls (11-0)

Just a few years ago this would have been a match up you would expect to see in the NAIA playoffs. Both programs have successfully transitioned to D2, with USF in the playoffs for a second straight year and APU making its first appearance.

USF has a dominant running game averaging 323 yards per game on the ground. The key player is senior quarterback Luke Papilion, who at 6-5, 220 is a load for opposing defenses to handle. Papilion has run for 906 yards and 16 touchdowns this fall and he is joined by running back Max Mickey, who has rushed for 1550 yards and 16 touchdowns. The Cougars have also improved defensively as the season has gone on, yielding just 45 points over the last four games.

The strength of the APU team is on defense, where the Cougars have forced 33 turnovers and allow just 96 rushing yards per game. They will need to successfully limit the USF running game, which I think they will be able to do to an extent. What I question is how well the Cougars will be able to move the football. APU will need to throw it to have success in my opinion and that will be tough to do against a hard hitting defense in cold weather that the Cougars are not accustomed to. 

Sioux Falls 31 Azusa Pacific 20

Super Region Four

Colorado Mesa (9-2) at Texas A&M-Commerce (9-1)

After back to back head-scratching losses to Black Hills State and Dixie State in the middle of the season, CMU has righted the ship to reach the playoffs. The Mavericks most impressive win came last week as they beat another playoff team- Azusa Pacific- to secure a berth. The strength of the Mavericks is an offense that averages over 500 yards and 43 points per game. This has made up for a defense that has been porous at times, allowing 31 points and 460 yards per game.

The Lions also have a very good offense, led by quarterback Luis Perez, who has thrown 27 touchdown passes against just three interceptions. But the entire key to TAMUC's success this year is the fact that the Lions lead the entire country in turnover margin at plus 21 for the season. A remarkable 15 different players have recorded an interception for a defense that is athletic and deep.

The Mavericks have run the football very well all season, and as long as they continue to do that they will stay in this game. However, I have to give the Lions the edge at home. 

Texas A&M-Commerce 38 Colorado Mesa 30

Colorado Mines (9-2) at Southwest Baptist (10-1)

First team to 50 wins? These are two prolific offenses that will go at it on Saturday. Mines leads the country in total offense at 573 yards per game. The Orediggers are led by Just Dvorak, who has thrown for 4012 yards and 48 touchdowns. He is a favorite to win the Harlon Hill.

The Bearcats are led by quarterback TJ Edwards (3012 passing yards, 600 rushing yards, 43 total touchdowns), running back Bubba Jenkins (1,560 yards, 16 touchdowns) and wide receiver Kendrick Payne (1008 receiving yards, 13 touchdowns). SBU averages 42 points per game and has scored 45 points or more in each of the last five games.

The team that can find a way to make a few stops is going to come out on top in this game. This is where I am going to give an edge to the Orediggers. They have played the tougher schedule and have not given up more than 28 points in a game in seven weeks. 

Colorado Mines 50 Southwest Baptist 38

Midwestern State (8-2) at Ferris State (9-2)

This game feels a bit like two teams headed in opposite directions. FSU has won five straight and in my opinion is playing the best football in the region right now. MSU, on the other hand, has lost twice in the last month. They were out gained 496 to 266 in the loss to Eastern New Mexico last week, giving up 430 of those yards on the ground. Not a good way to go into this contest.

Bulldog quarterback Reggie Bell has rushed for over 1,000 yards and passed for over 2,000 yards this season and is the key to what FSU does on offense. To have a chance, MSU must prevent the big plays and win the turnover battle. The Mustangs have a way of hanging around in games so it might be close for a while, but I simply feel that FSU is the better team. 

Ferris State 37 Midwestern State 24

Mailbag

[Q] Are you surprised that UT-Permian Basin had such a tough year? They went 0-9 against D2 teams and the defense couldn't stop anyone. I know they are a first year team but I expected more.

[A] I am not surprised at all. UTPB has just one senior and five upperclassmen on the roster so the Falcons are probably the youngest team in all of D2 football. It is going to take time for this program to compete in the LSC.

Contact

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