November 7th, 2017 12:00am
With another regular season just about in the books, it*s time to take on my annual task of trying to predict which teams will be in the playoffs. You can find the link to the regional rankings on the front page of our site to help follow along.
Super Region One
IUP, Assumption and Shepherd are all going to be in the postseason. Findlay will be playing a solid Ohio Dominican team this week, but even with a loss I think the Oilers will stay in the playoff field as the lone GMAC team.
That leaves several teams fighting for three remaining spots. Slippery Rock and Shippensburg are both heavy favorites in their games on Saturday and should get in with wins. However, West Chester must play IUP in the PSAC championship game and I believe the Rams are in a must win situation.
Notre Dame has a huge opportunity playing on the road against unbeaten Indianapolis from SR3. NDC*s resume would be greatly enhanced with a victory.
California*s position doesn*t look great right now sitting at 9th, but considering that two teams in front of the Vulcans are playing undefeated teams, I think Cal definitely still has a shot. LIU Post would need several big upsets to get in.
Prediction:
1. Indiana
2. Assumption
3. Shepherd
4. Findlay
5. Slippery Rock
6. Shippensburg
7. California
Super Region Two
Wingate, West Alabama, Virginia State and Bowie State have all sewn up playoff spots. I think West Georgia gets in for sure with a win over Florida Tech on Saturday.
After that this region gets really interesting when trying to decide who will get the final two spots. Tuskegee is currently the only SIAC team in the rankings and the Golden Tigers play Fort Valley State in the league title game on Saturday. If the Golden Tigers can win, they would only need to be in the top eight to get earned access.
Catawba, Carson-Newman, Delta State are all still in play for the last spot (or possibly two if Tuskegee falters). West Florida has an outside shot. The important thing to keep in mind here is that even though Catawba is currently higher in the poll than Carson-Newman, C-N has the advantage of winning when the two teams played. If, for example, DSU were to lose and Catawba and C-N were next to each other in the rankings, tradition is that the two teams would flip spots based on head to head. This is something to keep in mind with Tuskegee and earned access possibly coming into play.
Prediction:
1. Wingate
2. West Alabama
3. Virginia State
4. West Georgia
5. Bowie State
6. Catawba
7. Tuskegee
Super Region Three
To me, this is the most straightforward region. Fort Hays State, Indianapolis, Ashland and Ferris State are all going to be in the playoffs.
Harding and Arkansas Tech play each other and the winner should also make it.
Ouachita Baptist and Northwest Missouri State will make the playoffs with rivalry game wins on Saturday.
I think Grand Valley is really the only other team with a shot and the Lakers will need to of course beat Tiffin and then also be huge fans of Henderson State (against OBU) or Missouri Western (against NWMSU). I think even if OBU or NWMSU loses, all that does is get GVSU in the conversation for the last spot. It would be very interesting to see how that would play out.
Prediction:
1. Fort Hays State
2. Indianapolis
3. Ashland
4. Ferris State
5. Ouachita Baptist
6. Northwest Missouri State
7. Harding
Super Region Four
This is by far the toughest region to analyze. There are still three unbeaten teams and six more with one loss. To further complicate things, Minnesota St. plays Sioux Falls, Central Washington plays Humboldt State and Eastern New Mexico and Midwestern State play each other. Texas A&M-Commerce and Colorado Mesa also play “dangerous” road games against Tarleton State and Azusa Pacific, respectively.
At this time Minnesota State and Central Washington are the only two teams that I think will be in the playoffs no matter what happens this weekend. Winona State is heavily favored against Augustana and the Warriors will be in with a win. Everything else is up in the air and just about impossible to predict.
Prediction:
1. Minnesota State
2. Central Washington
3. Winona State
4. Colorado Mesa
5. Texas A&M-Commerce
6. Eastern New Mexico
7. Midwestern State
Top Games this Week
PSAC Championship Game
Indiana (10-0) at West Chester (8-2)
Can WCU play turnover free on offense and control the IUP running game on defense? If they can do those two, the Rams will be right in it and have a chance at pulling off the upset. The Crimson Hawks have not played their best football over the last three weeks or so, but I think they will turn it up a notch in this game. Indiana 31 West Chester 20
CIAA Championship Game
Fayetteville State (6-4) vs Virginia State (10-0)
FSU is somehow in this championship game, despite the fact that the Broncos have been out gained by 111 yards per game this season. VSU averages 43 points and 487 yards of offense per game. I don*t see how FSU can keep pace. Virginia State 44 Fayetteville State 20
SIAC Championship Game
Tuskegee (8-2) at Fort Valley State (5-4)
FVSU has had an up and down season, with all four losses by 17 points or more, including 34-9 at the hands of Albany State last week. I don*t see the Wildcats hanging with a Tuskegee team that it trying to keep its playoff hopes alive. Tuskegee 38 Fort Valley State 16
Minnesota State (10-0) at Sioux Falls (9-1)
These are two very good defensive football teams. The difference, however, is that MSU is so much more dynamic on the offensive side of the football. The Mavericks average over 500 yards per game of total offense, including 312 per game on the ground. USF has struggled to move the ball consistently all season. If a team is going to beat MSU, it will have to throw the ball well and that is the Cougars* biggest weakness. Minnesota State 34 Sioux Falls 19
Notre Dame (8-2) at Indianapolis (10-0)
This is an interesting late season game between teams in different regions. The only big weakness the Greyhounds have shown this season is that teams have been able to throw the football on them. NDC quarterback Malik Grove is a dynamic dual threat player that can give defenses fits. However, I don*t think he has the field-stretching receivers at his disposal to threaten the Indianapolis defense. Indianapolis 31 Notre Dame 20
Findlay (9-1) at Ohio Dominican (6-3)
ODU isn*t playing for a playoff berth like Findlay is, but with both teams unbeaten in the GMAC this should be an intense game. These teams have been prolific offensively as they both average more than 500 yards per game. However, the Oilers have played better defense this season and that gives them the edge here. Findlay 31 Ohio Dominican 24
Harding (7-3) at Arkansas Tech (8-2)
The Bisons looked dead in the water early in the season as they lost their first three games. However, they have put it all together and have played really well over the last month. The winner of this game likely secures a playoff berth as these two teams are currently 7th and 8th in the regional rankings. This should be a very good game between teams that know each other well. Arkansas Tech 27 Harding 26
Henderson State (6-4) at Ouachita Baptist (8-2)
I had the privilege of attending this rivalry game three years ago and it is definitely among the most unique in all of college football because the two schools are literally across the street from each other. Adding further intrigue is OBU*s quest to make the playoffs. To do so the Tigers will have to put an end to HSU*s remarkable 31-game road winning streak. Wouldn*t it be ironic if the streak ends just a stone*s throw from home? Ouachita Baptist 27 Henderson State 23
West Florida (6-3) at West Georgia (8-2)
For UWF to have a 6-3 record in just the second year as a varsity program while playing in a league as tough as the GSC is simply remarkable. The Argonauts (currently 10th in SR2) have an outside shot at the playoffs if they can knock of UWG. However, the Wolves are very good defensively and I think that gives them an edge in this one. West Georgia 27 West Florida 16
Central Washington (10-0) at Humboldt State (8-1)
In the first meeting between these two teams CWU outrushed HSU 284-41 in a 55-27 victory. If the Wildcats can contain HSU standout running back Ja*Quan Gardner again in this game, I expect a similar result. I think the game will be much closer this time around with so much riding on it. The Lumberjacks will be amped up and ready to play with their being a very real possibility that this is the last game for the football program at HSU. As much as a Lumberjack win would be a great feel-good story, I think the Wildcats are too good to let it happen. Central Washington 31 Humboldt State 28
Midwestern State (8-0) at Eastern New Mexico (8-1)
The old adage that you must run the ball on offense and defend the run on defense certainly applies to ENMU. The Greyhounds are second in the nation in rushing yards (342 per game) while being fifth in rush defense at 71 yards per game. MSU can score points. The Mustangs average 514 yards and 46 points per game but aren*t nearly as stingy defensively. I think ENMU with the home field prevails in a close one. Eastern New Mexico 34 Midwestern State 31
Mailbag
[Q] West Alabama has won the GSC this year. North Alabama, West Georgia, Valdosta State and Delta State have all taken their turn over the last few years of being the top team in the conference. It seems every year there is a GSC team right in the mix for the national championship. Is the GSC that much deeper than the other leagues in D2? The other conferences seem to be dominated by one or two teams.
[A] From an overall talent standpoint I do think there are as many or more good players in the GSC than in any other league in the country, particularly at the skill and speed positions. I would probably go with the MIAA, GLIAC or NSIC when it comes to the offensive line, but just about anywhere else on the field the talent edge would go to the GSC.
However, I think the main reason why there isn*t much consistency from year to year has to do with roster construction. GSC schools rely much more heavily on transfers than other leagues. For example, here is a list of the four GSC schools that have dominated the league in the last decade followed by the number of transfers on their rosters this season:
Delta State 45
West Georgia 41
Valdosta State 35
North Alabama 31
For comparison, this is a list of other prominent D2 schools and their transfers:
Northwest Missouri 6
Minnesota State 17
Shepherd 11
Indiana 15
Grand Valley 17
There are many more transfers filling the rosters of the GSC programs than what you would generally see in the rest of D2. When there aren*t many 4-year players in a program it leads to more ups and downs because players cycle through the rosters so much more quickly. Example: UNA played in the championship game last year and then lost 29 seniors. The Lions will have to win this week just to finish .500. Northwest Missouri was also in the championship game last year and lost 17 seniors from that team. The Bearcats aren*t as good this year but are still poised to make the playoffs.
I*m not saying that what the GSC teams are doing is wrong because it isn*t. The JUCO systems in the South produce a lot of good players and these programs would be foolish not to tap into that. But it*s obvious that roster turnover contributes to the ups and downs teams have from year to year. This in turn creates the perception that the GSC is a much deeper league than the others when the reality is that there are different teams at the top each year while others fall off.
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