CIAA Week Six Preview

October 11th, 2024 10:00am

CIAA Week Six Preview

We are just across the midway point of the season. So far, outcomes have exceeded expectations in all sorts of ways.  But, landmines remain.

Welcome to Separation Saturday, where only the most cunning of coordinators, the most wily of wide receivers, the quickest of quarterbacks (running? decision making?), and the most determined of defenses against some heated rivals will get their teams to victory. Those who win, remain in championship contention. Those who don’t, may need to find their nearest tabernacle for a hope and a prayer.  Let’s talk about it.

Games in order of interest

Shaw (2-1, 4-2) at Winston-Salem State (2-1, 4-2)

The stakes couldn’t be higher in this game.  Virginia Union clobbered both of them (as WSSU found out last week), and it means that their opportunity to get into the championship game could rest on running the table, including taking down Johnson C. Smith.  There’s no love lost with these teams either.  Out of their last 13 meetings, eight of them have been decided by a touchdown or less.  There’s the first win of the season that WSSU surprisingly incurred in 2022, the infamous homecoming 21-0 shutout Shaw laid on WSSU at the Rams’ homecoming in 2019, and the overtime thriller two years before that somehow WSSU pulled out. 

There are some things that stand out in this game. Shaw has a tendency to put up scores in bunches, while WSSU tends to be more methodical in their offensive approach (Exhibit A – settling for field goals). Nonetheless, Shaw has a defined weakness in its secondary, as the defense is dead last in passing yards allowed, something WSSU has been able to exploit against most of its opponents. Interesting enough, both schools lead the conference in interceptions, indicating its not quite a free for all for Shaw’s opponents  Shaw does have the benefit of its potent rushing attack, led by Travon Tensley and Traquan Johnson, but WSSU matches that too with its plethora of running backs.  This game could be as fast or slow moving as the offensive plans allow for.   

 In the Devin Versteegen Bowl, I look to the Rams to remain undefeated at home.  Advantage: WSSU.

Fayetteville State (2-1, 3-2) at Livingstone (2-1, 4-2)

Our second high stakes elimination game includes a bunch of bucking broncos and bears, both sporting blue. Its another game of strength against strength, as FSU is second in the conference in passing yards, while Livingstone gives up the second least in passing yards.  Speaking of defense, both squads sport all-conference grade defensive linemen in LC’s Davion Watkins and FSU’s Shi Gaskin, and both players are top give in tackles per loss and sacks. Both schools have been rather inconsistent in times in how their offenses have operated, though Livingstone stands out more in the volume of inconsistency. Both schools have capable kicking games, so special teams doesn’t I look to FSU giving Livingstone the blues for 3 hours during this Stonecoming affair, as I think FSU is just the more complete team.  Advantage: FSU

Bowie State (0-2, 1-4) at Virginia State (1-1, 2-3)

It doesn’t feel right to see both teams with losing records at this point in the season. VSU’s is a bit misleading given that that they have played arguably the toughest slate in the conference so far. Their losses to WSSU and JCSU were by a total of 5 points.  BSU hit a stroke of bad luck last week, allowing FSU to walk away with the win on a game winning FG.  This homecoming matchup features one team treading water but poised to break out of a slump, and another stuck in reverse.  Advantage: VSU, who climbs to .500

Bluefield State (0-2, 1-4) at Lincoln (0-2, 0-5)

Someone has to win this game, right? It is a winnable game for both schools.  While the record does not yet reflect it, B-State’s passing offense, led by QB Christian Solino and WR Trey Lyles, has been efficient against lower tier opponents.  They do not run the ball well.  At all.  Meanwhile, Lincoln is balances, with a preference to pass, but seems like they are forced to run (or for QB Isaiah Freeman to run).  The defenses haven’t been able to stop water from running out of the tap, much less opposing offenses (B-State surrenders 393 yards a game, worse in the conference, and Lincoln is on their heels at 369 yards a game).  Lincoln’s inability to flip the field (28 net yards a punt) and inexperience in the kicking game (1-5 on FGA), is very problematic.  Advantage: Bluefield State. Its been a rough season for Lincoln.

ECSU (0-2, 2-3) at Virginia Union (2-0, 3-2)

This game is just a total mismatch. ECSU is dead last in total offense, and near the bottom in scoring offense. The defense is a different story, as they are tops in passing defense in the conference. The problem for the defense is that VUU is very versatile on offense, and can grind out games on the ground if needed.  ECSU would have to limit VUU’s scoring just to have a chance, as they haven’t scored more than 20 points in a single game.  I just don’t see it. Advantage: VUU – the JCSU loss was the beginning of their villain story.

#23 Johnson C. Smith is idle.