October 9th, 2007 12:00am
The analysts that cover the NCAA basketball tournament each March frequently use the phrase "survive and advance". Simply put, it means that no matter how you do it, all that is really important is somehow finding a way to win.
Of course a mid-season loss in a D-II football game doesn't have the season ending finality to it that a loss in the NCAA basketball tournament does. But when we are talking about playoff spots and conference titles being on the line, a loss in a game you should win can be nearly as crippling.
We had three such survive and advance situations last weekend. Northwest Missouri State had to sweat out a missed chip shot field goal attempt by rival Pittsburg State that would have won the game in regulation. The Bearcats then scored on 4th-and-goal in overtime to win, 37-34.
Winona State stayed unbeaten in the NSIC, overcoming a 16 point deficit fourth quarter deficit to take a 42-41 lead with 39 seconds to play, then holding its breath as Minnesota State-Moorhead kicker Kyle Wilcox missed on a 34-yard game winning field goal attempt with three seconds left.
And second ranked North Dakota also survived, scoring two touchdowns in the final 5:13 to overcome upset-minded Minnesota State-Mankato, 38-34.
If all three of these teams go on to reach the playoffs, they each may look back at their wins on October 6th as a major key in getting there.
First Regional Poll Released
On Monday the NCAA released its first regional poll of 2007 and, as usual, there is plenty of controversy. I've already been flooded with emails wondering how Grand Valley can be ranked number one in the D2football.com poll, yet number three in the Northwest Region.
The simple explanation is this: the regional poll is largely based on a team's record and a statistical formula called the strength of schedule index. The strength of schedule index (SOS) basically gives each team a value based on their opponents' records. Since the two NCC teams in front of Grand Valley (Nebraska-Omaha and North Dakota) have played opponents with better records, they are ranked in front of the Lakers. It's likely that as long as one of those two teams stays unbeaten (they play this week), that team will be ranked ahead of GVSU in the regional poll. The good news from a Grand Valley perspective: no NCC team has finished the regular season unbeaten since 1990.
Games of the Week
With three games featuring unbeaten teams ranked in the top twelve in our national poll, it's only appropriate that all three be featured as a game of the week:
Nebraska-Omaha (5-0) @ North Dakota (6-0)
UND gets more publicity from a national standpoint simply because the Sioux have had a great deal of playoff success over the past six years or so, while UNO has struggled in the postseason. But when it comes to the regular season, these two teams have been nearly equal over the last decade or so. A few other reasons why this is such a huge game:
-Incredibly, eight of the last nine games between these two teams have been decided by three points or less. UNO won 21-20 in the regular season last year in Omaha, with UND getting revenge in the playoffs, winning 38-35.
-12 of the last 14 NCC titles have involved one or both of these teams. The two teams have shared the NCC title each of the last two years.
-UNO and UND are ranked one and two respectively in the current Northwest Region rankings. It's likely that the winner of this game will go on to receive a first round bye in the playoffs.
-UNO's Pat Behrns was the head coach at UND in the early 80's when current UND head coach Dale Lennon was a player for the Fighting Sioux.
Although the make up of the teams is a bit different than in past years, this should once again be an outstanding match up. UND has long been known for its great defenses, but this year it is offense that is carrying the Sioux. UND has two of the top playmakers in the country in running back Ryan Chappel (1,002 rushing yards this year) and receiver/return man Weston Dressler.
Nebraska-Omaha is led by junior quarterback Zach Miller. Miller has always been a terrific running quarterback but the difference this year is that Miller has become a much better passer, completing over two-thirds of his attempts. The Mavericks have had to overcome a few injuries on the offensive line, but they had the week off last Saturday and should come into this game relatively healthy.
This should be another great game between these two teams. UNO has won in the Alerus Center in the past, so the Mavericks won't be intimidated by the large, noisy crowd. I will go with the Sioux at home in a game that will more than live up to the hype. North Dakota 31 Nebraska-Omaha 30.
Delta State (5-0) @ Valdosta State (5-0)
There is one fact about this game that really jumped out at me when studying the two teams: Every year since 2000, the winner of this game has gone on to reach the playoffs while the loser has watched from home. It's not hard for coaches to get their players motivated when faced with facts like that.
Last season the Statesmen won at home, 35-28. The win catapulted DSU all the way to the national semifinals. Like last season, the Statesmen still rely on a great defense-- led by the GSC's all-time sack leader, Michael Eubanks-- to carry them. But unlike last year when the emphasis was on throwing the football, DSU relies on its rushing attack (227 yards per game) to move the ball offensively.
VSU is not as strong defensively as Delta State, but is a more prolific team offensively. Senior quarterback Willie Copeland (just two interceptions in 183 pass attempts), wide receiver Cedric Jones, and running back Michael Terry create plenty of headaches for opposing defensive coordinators.
In the pre-season I picked Valdosta State as the team to beat in the Southeast Region, so I'm going to go with the Blazers. But Delta State has a great defense and it would not surprise me one bit to see the Statesmen find a way to win this game. Valdosta State 23 Delta State 20.
Catawba (6-0) @ Carson-Newman (6-0)
Seeing Carson-Newman and Catawba back on top of the SAC standings reminds me of years gone by. These two teams dominated the SAC for several years before upstarts like Newberry started jumping into the league title race over the last few years. It's kind of nice to see a season again where the two old powers battle it out for the league title.
I talked at length in last week's column about the apparent resurgence of Carson-Newman. The Eagles still rely on the veer option to move the football, but this team also has weapons at wide receiver and this is the major difference: C-N now plays great defense and is a threat to completely shut down just about any opponent.
Catawba has also been outstanding in just about every facet of the game this year. The Indians' defense allows just 212 yards of offense per game, and Catawba is also talented and balanced offensively. The Indians have one of the deeper stables of running backs in the country, led by Kory Fisher and George Bell.
There are two factors that I think will lead to C-N winning this game. Number one, the Eagles are a bit more talented overall on both offense and defense. And number two, C-N has a great home field advantage at Burke-Tarr Stadium; in fact, Catawba hasn't won there since 1988. Carson-Newman 30 Catawba 21.
Stonehill (4-1) @ Bryant (5-0)
The Skyhawks are a textbook example of how you play winning football without possessing tremendous talent. Stonehill has turned the ball over just three times all season and is plus 12 in turnover differential. The Skyhawks also run the ball a lot, which controls the clock and forces opponents into having to drive the length of the field to score points.
Bryant is in similar situation in the sense that the Bulldogs have a better record than their level of talent would maybe suggest-- all five of Bryant's wins have been by fewer than ten points. What Bryant has been able to do well this year is find ways late in contests to win games. The key has been the leadership of senior quarterback Charlie Granatell. Granatell doesn't have huge numbers, but he has made several big plays down the stretch in games when his team needed him most. This should be a competitive game, but look for Granatell to be the difference. The winner becomes the only unbeaten team left in Northeast-10 conference play. Bryant 21 Stonehill 17.
Eastern New Mexico (4-2) @ West Texas A&M (6-0)
The Greyhounds must quickly regroup after two straight losses, including a disheartening overtime home loss to Angelo State last week. But ENMU should have little trouble getting up for this game, as WTAMU is its main rival and this is the battle for the "Wagon Wheel". In the 2005 game at WTAMU, a record 22,994 fans showed up. As part of the Buffaloes' homecoming celebration, a local bank is giving away $22,994 to one lucky fan if the attendance record is broken this week. Pretty big stuff.
On the field, the two teams couldn't be more different. With its spread offense, WTAMU leads the nation in passing, racking up 384 yards per game through the air. ENMU, on the other hand, leads the nation in rushing at 377 yards per game with its wishbone offense.
There are two reasons why I think WTAMU will roll in this game. Number one, the Buffaloes are more talented on defense. And number two, WTAMU has at least some semblance of offensive balance while the Greyhounds' disdain for the forward pass is almost comical. The ENMU defense has twice as many interceptions this year (eight) as the offense has pass completions (four). That won't get it done against WTAMU. West Texas A&M 34 Eastern New Mexico 18.
Midwestern State (5-1) @ Tarleton State (6-0)
MSU comes into this game licking its wounds after a disappointing 25-20 loss to West Texas last week. The Mustangs have one of the top producing offenses in the country, led by dual threat quarterback Daniel Polk. But Polk was held in check last week, rushing for just 30 yards on 17 carries. In order for MSU to be successful, Polk has to get untracked against TSU.
Tarleton State can best be described as a solid all around football team. The Texans don't have many stars, but they do every thing fairly well. They can run and pass effectively, play solid all around defense, and have very good special teams units. If the Texans can slow down Polk and the MSU offense, I think they are good enough in the other phases of the game to pull out a win. Tarleton State 27 Midwestern State 24.
Central Missouri (4-2) @ Northwest Missouri (4-1)
One would have to think that that the Bearcats will come into this game a focused team after a somewhat lackluster performance against Pittsburg State last week. Northwest is still clearly the team to beat in the MIAA, but if there is one team remaining on the Bearcats' schedule with the potential to play with NWMSU, it is UCM.
The Mules' strength this year has been an aggressive defense that has shut down opponents' running games, allowing just 72 yards per game on the ground. That defense will face a significant challenge in trying to shut down Bearcat star running back Xavier Omon.
The two teams are fairly equal defensively, but I like the Bearcats to win this game because they are so much more explosive on offense. The only real way I see UCM prevailing in this game is to force a bunch of turnovers. Northwest Missouri 34 Central Missouri 20.
Mailbag
[Q] First, I acknowledge my bias - I graduated from Grand Valley State. I think it is great they are doing so well. But honestly, they are above their competition in their division, and their only real tough matches are against the best of the best. For a D-II school, they now have a student body of 23,000, double that of most D-II schools. My question is this: Does GVSU, given the growth of the school and winner of the national championship 4 of the last 5 years, with no sign of abating, really still belong in D-II football? Winning 45-7 is fun once in a while, but week in week out makes one objectively wonder if its time to look for a tougher conference/level. Your thoughts please.
John
[A] If you read the message boards on our site, this subject would have to be at the top of the list for frequently brought up topics. I suppose any time a school has had as much success as Grand Valley has, it's only natural that people will speculate that the school should be D-I.
There is no denying that GVSU is a large school by D-II standards, but there are a couple of important things to remember here: First, there are other large schools in this division-- such as fellow GLIAC member Wayne State-- that haven't had tremendous athletic success. So sure, the size of the school obviously helps, but it's more about an overall commitment to athletics from the presidential level on down that makes a school like GVSU successful.
The other thing about GVSU that people fail to realize is that the school itself is only around 40 years old. Plus, a great majority of the enrollment growth has occurred in the last 10 to 15 years. So, even though the school is large now, there isn't the huge, older, wealthier alumni base to tap into for the funds necessary to support a much larger athletic program. I would venture to guess that a significant portion of GVSU's alumni are under age 35. Typically, those people are more worried about supporting young families and paying off student loans than giving large gifts to their college athletic departments.
So, basically what I'm saying is this: Grand Valley is well suited for Division II at this point in time. Sure, GVSU has some huge advantages (like being in the largest media market in the U.S. without a D-I team), but the last time I checked, the Lakers are still playing football with 36 scholarships like everyone else.
I'm sure at some point in the future, GVSU may take a serious look at moving up. But I really believe we are probably looking at a minimum of 10 years before that happens. And really, this whole subject is a moot point for at least the next four years; the NCAA has a moratorium in place preventing schools from making the move until 2011.
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