October 27th, 2009 12:00am
In my first column of the season, I mentioned how I had spoken to a friend that is a North Alabama supporter about the situation at UNA. You know, about Terry Bowden bringing in all of the Division I transfers into the program.
My friend envisioned that the 2009 season at UNA would either be wildly successful or a train wreck, and probably not much else in between.
After watching the top-ranked Lions go to 9-0 by dismantling Valdosta State last Thursday night, I think we can rule out the season becoming a train wreck. UNA was on a whole different level athletically than were the Blazers, and it certainly appears as if Bowden and his staff have not only assembled a great deal of talent, but more importantly, have got that talent playing well together.
Maybe the best evidence of the fine job Bowden and his staff have done is this: UNA does not have a single offensive player in its current lineup that was a starter for the Lions last season, and yet they lead all of D-II in scoring at 44 points per game. Impressive.
If you read the message board on this website, the subject of UNA having so many transfers has been a hot topic ever since many of them began matriculating to Florence. Some people have no problem with what UNA is doing; others think it is bad for Division II.
My opinion? I'm just fine with it. While what has happened at UNA is an extreme case because of the sheer number of players brought in this year, almost every top program in D-II these days relies upon transfers to bolster their rosters. Division II's differing eligibility rules and the fact that D-II is often a fallback for those players that don't quite work out at the D-I level make it a natural that many transfers end up on D-II rosters.
So while transfers are a fact of life at this level, most coaches (Terry Bowden included) realize that a great program is still built on the 4-year player. The most successful programs this decade (think Grand Valley State, Northwest Missouri State and Valdosta State) have all been successful by recruiting and developing high school kids, and then sprinkling in a few transfers to shore up weaknesses or simply add more talent to an already good team.
I suspect that this year was a special circumstance, and in the future we will see Terry Bowden bring in more 4-year players with just a smattering of transfers-- like what the other top programs in Division II are doing. But for this one season, it sure is going to be interesting to see if Bowden's team that is heavy on D-I caliber players can help UNA win a D-II national championship.
Playoff Analysis
With just two weeks to go, it's time to start breaking down the potential playoff field. Keep in mind that there are still many moving parts and a surprise or two (like West Alabama losing last week to West Georgia, who had a 21-game losing streak going) could throw off everything in a given region. Hopefully, things will be much clearer next week.
Super Region One Current Rankings
1. West Liberty 8-1
2. Shippensburg 7-2
3. Bloomsburg 8-1
4. California 7-2
5. Bentley 8-1
6. Edinboro 7-2
7. Charleston 8-1
8. East Stroudsburg 6-3
9. Fayetteville State 6-3
10. Southern Connecticut State 5-3
This is a tough region to predict because of the four conferences, but to simplify things, keep this in mind: there are essentially eight teams (the top seven in the latest regional poll and Fayetteville State or another CIAA team) fighting for six spots. Unless there are some major, major surprises over the next couple of weeks, everyone else can be ruled out.
If West Liberty wins out, the Hilltoppers should get the top seed. WLU has a strong strength of schedule and even another loss at least keeps the Hilltoppers in the field.
With one regular season game remaining, Bentley is also in good shape. SCSU is the only other Northeast 10 team in the regional poll and the Eagles have the head to head win over the Owls.
Fayetteville State only needs to get into the top eight to qualify for earned access, but the Broncos are most certainly going to drop in the rankings after playing 0-9 Livingstone this week. Then FSU will play in the CIAA championship game against a yet to be decided opponent. Of the three teams in the CIAA East vying for a spot in the championship game, only Bowie State would seem to have a high enough SOS to potentially qualify for the postseason. I would put the chances of a CIAA team getting into the field at less that 50/50 at this point.
That leaves us with the four PSAC teams (California, Bloomsburg, Shippensburg, and Edinboro) plus Charleston from the WVIAC potentially fighting for the last three (if the CIAA is involved) or four playoff spots.
The four PSAC teams all have tough games, including California playing Shippensburg in the PSAC title game. I think it's safe to assume that the winner of that game will get into the field but the loser (especially if it is Shippensburg) may not. Edinboro has the disadvantage of head to head losses to both Cal and Shippensburg while Bloomsburg has a tough game with rival West Chester to play this week. With a poor SOS, Charleston is probably going to need losses by a couple of the PSAC teams to have a good shot at getting into the field.
Super Region Two Current Rankings
1. North Alabama 9-0
2. Carson-Newman 7-2
3. Albany State 7-1
4. North Carolina-Pembroke 7-1
5. Mars Hill 6-2
6. Morehouse 6-2
7. Benedict 6-3
8. Arkansas Tech 6-2
9. Wingate 6-2
10. Fort Valley 5-4
UNA will be the number one seed if they can win out, and a Lion loss looks extremely unlikely. You can pencil them into the top seed. Carson-Newman has such a high SOS that the Eagles would seem to be a lock for the playoffs even with another loss.
UNC-Pembroke has just one D-II opponent remaining-- winless North Greenville. No doubt this is going to hurt the Braves' strength of schedule, but UNCP is also 3-1 against D2 teams with records over .500 and has a fine late season record. UNCP should be a lock for the playoffs.
After that it's a complete crapshoot with any and all of the remaining seven teams in the running for three playoff spots. Mars Hill and Albany State both have just one D2 loss, but with tough games remaining, both could still play themselves out of the playoffs. But all seven of these teams have some tough remaining games and it will be the teams that play the best and come through unscathed that will have the best shot at getting in. We will know more next week.
Super Region Three Current Rankings
1. Minnesota State (9-0)
2. Minnesota-Duluth (8-1)
3. Hillsdale (7-2)
4. Grand Valley (8-1)
5. Saginaw Valley (7-2)
6. Nebraska-Kearney (8-1)
7. Findlay (7-2)
8. Augustana (7-2)
9. Wayne State (NE) (6-3)
10. Colorado Mines (7-2)
I will start off my assessment of this region by proclaiming that I don't believe GVSU will lose either of its last two regular season games. The Lakers should finish at least third in the region and if both UMD and GVSU win out, the number two spot could be close between the two.
MSU only needs to beat Upper Iowa to guarantee a playoff spot, but a Maverick loss in the final week to rival St. Cloud State would probably knock the Mavericks out of an opening round bye. It is entirely conceivable that GVSU could end up with the top seed when it is all said and done.
Nebraska-Kearney and Colorado Mines play this week and they are the only two RMAC teams ranked in the region. The winner of this game should stay in the top eight in the region, which is all that is needed to gain earned access.
Saginaw Valley and Findlay also play this week and the winner of that game also is in a great position to make the field as both teams have (or project to have) a high strength of schedule.
From here is where it gets interesting. Hillsdale appears to be in solid shape with a three ranking right now and a win over GVSU. The problem is that the Chargers' last two opponents have combined for just one win and Hillsdale will see its SOS drop like a stone these next two weeks. I believe there is at least a chance that Hillsdale could fall all the way out of the top six, while a team like Augustana or even a three-loss Findlay (who has a head to head win over Hillsdale) gets into the field instead.
Super Region Four Current Rankings
1. Central Washington 9-0
2. Northwest Missouri State 8-1
3. Missouri Western 7-2
4. Midwestern State 7-2
5. Texas A&M-Kingsville 8-1
6. Tarleton State 8-1
7. Abilene Christian 7-2
8. Washburn 6-3
9. Central Missouri 7-2
10. Angelo State 6-3
Central Washington has a high SOS and could possibly lose a game and still retain a first round bye. NWMSU still has a tough game to play against Central Missouri to close the regular season, but the Bearcats can still easily make the playoffs with two losses.
I don't believe Angelo State has much of a shot and Washburn will need help because of having three losses. But for every other team currently in the regional poll, the formula for making the playoffs is this: WIN!
MWSU will make it by winning its last two games, but the prospects of that happening look shaky after the Griffons blew a 20-point leading in losing to Missouri Southern last week. UCM will get its shot at NWMSU and if the Mules can win, I believe they will get in as well.
And, as I detailed in my column last week, the LSC teams in the poll will all get their shot at each other, and the two or three teams that can come out on top will make the field. Hopefully this region is a little clearer next week.
Top Games this Week
Findlay (7-2) at Saginaw Valley State (7-2)
Two outstanding defensive teams will do battle with a playoff berth the like prize for the winner. These teams are very even statistically and I will give the Cardinals a very slight advantage playing at home. Saginaw Valley State 20 Findlay 17.
Clarion (6-3) at Edinboro (7-2)
Clarion is one of D-II's most improved teams this season, and although the Golden Eagles don't have a shot at the playoffs, they can take sole possession of second place in the PSAC West and end Edinboro's playoff hopes with a win.
This should be a very good game, but I think Edinboro quarterback Trevor Harris will find a way to lead his team to a win. Edinboro 23 Clarion 21.
Carson-Newman (7-2) at Wingate (6-2)
The Bulldogs have come so close several times to making the playoffs the past few seasons, but late season meltdowns-- and losses to Carson-Newman-- have kept Wingate out.
The Eagles have beaten the Bulldogs 13 straight times, and with C-N's offense really starting to click, I think they will extend the streak on Saturday. Carson-Newman 40 Wingate 28.
Albany State (7-1) at Morehouse (6-2)
The Rams will have to recover fast from their gut-wrenching last second loss to Tuskegee with this game having huge playoff implications. Both teams have shown the ability to score points this year, but the Golden Rams are just too good defensively. Albany State 27 Morehouse 23.
Colorado Mines (7-2) at Nebraska-Kearney (8-1)
With both teams unbeaten in the RMAC and the only two league teams in the regional rankings, the winner of this game will likely win the league outright and get a playoff berth while the loser will be turning in the pads in two weeks. Doesn't get much better than that.
Mines has won four of five against the Lopers, but this is UNK's year. The Lopers are the more explosive offensive team and just a bit better defensively. Nebraska-Kearney 28 Colorado Mines 17.
Texas A&M-Kingsville (8-1) at Abilene Christian (7-2)
Hard to believe that ACU has gone from number one in the country to on the verge of missing the postseason, but the Wildcats are having a hard time moving the ball and scoring points.
TAMUK's strength is on offense and if the Javelinas can hold onto the ball, I think they can do enough to give themselves a shot. But ACU is backed into a corner and will come out fighting and I think the Wildcats will find a way to pull it out. Abilene Christian 19 Texas A&M-Kingsville 17.
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