November 9th, 2010 12:00am
I love the last Saturday of the regular season because so many teams have so much to play for with playoff spots and conference titles on the line.
But the final week of this season is strange for this reason: There are very few games matching teams with legitimate playoff aspirations. In fact, the PSAC title game between Mercyhurst and Bloomsburg and an RMAC battle between Nebraska-Kearney and Colorado Mines are the only two games on the schedule that match Top 25 teams.
So what I will be on the lookout for is the upset. Can a team like Harding-- which has four losses this season by a total of 20 points-- upset North Alabama? Will West Alabama-- with four losses by a total of nine points-- give Valdosta State trouble? Those are the types of games I will keep an eye on, because inevitably, some team that we may have penciled into the postseason will suffer a surprising loss this week.
The surprise of last week was New Haven losing 35-26 to St. Anselm. In just its second season since reinstating its football program, UNH needed just to beat the Hawks (2-7) to clinch an outright Northeast-10 title and make the playoffs. Now, UNH will need a miracle to reach the postseason. In all likelihood, the Northeast-10 will go without a playoff representative for a second year in a row.
In other games around the country, some traditional powers used last minutes heroics to pick up victories. North Alabama rallied from a 23-3 deficit to knock off West Alabama, 24-23. Abilene Christian came back from 27-13 down against rival West Texas A&M. Northwest Missouri State won at least a share of a fifth straight MIAA title and ran its conference winning streak to 44 games by knocking off Central Missouri 17-16 on a last second field goal. It's an exciting time of the year, to say the least.
A region by region breakdown of playoff possibilities:
Super Region One
Overall Record Division II Record
1. Shepherd 9-0 9-0
2. Bloomsburg 9-1 9-1
3. Kutztown 9-1 9-1
4. Mercyhurst 8-2 8-2
5. California (Pennsylvania) 9-1 9-1
6. Shaw 8-2 8-1
7. West Virginia Wesleyan 8-2 8-2
8. Concord 8-2 7-2
9. Saint Augustine's 8-2 8-2
10. Winston-Salem State 8-2 6-2
Shepherd is going to be in the playoffs and I don't see a way Cal could be left out after the Vulcans beat up on Cheyney this week. Even with a loss in the PSAC title game, Bloomsburg should make its way into the field and Kutztown will as well, as long as the Golden Bears take care of Gannon.
What will be interesting is the last couple of spots. If Mercyhurst beats Bloomsburg and Shaw wins the CIAA title, both the Lakers and Shaw will make the field. The question is what happens if one or the other loses. Shaw at six, Saint Augustine's at nine, and WSSU at ten are all CIAA teams. Even if Shaw loses, as long as one of the three finishes in the top eight the CIAA is going to get a team into the field.
If Mercyhurst gets beat, I'm not sure what will happen. The Lakers have a good strength of schedule, but will that SOS be enough to overcome three losses and keep them in the playoff field? I don't know the answer to that. It is obvious, though, that West Virginia Wesleyan's and Concord's chances hinge on Mercyhurst and/or Kutztown losing.
Super Region Two
Overall Record Division II Record
1. Albany State (Georgia) 10-0 9-0
2. Valdosta State 8-1 8-1
3. Wingate 7-2 7-2
4. North Alabama 8-2 8-2
5. Delta State 7-3 7-2
6. Morehouse 8-2 8-2
7. Fort Valley State 8-2 7-2
8. Catawba 6-3 6-3
9. Mars Hill 5-5 5-4
10. Henderson State 6-4 6-3
Albany State will be in the playoffs and should be the top seed as the Rams have completed their regular season. I also feel that Valdosta State is in the playoffs; even with a loss this weekend due to the fact that the Blazers have head to head wins over both Wingate and North Alabama.
The other four spots are going to come from the teams currently ranked third through eighth. Wingate, UNA, and DSU should all control their own destinies by winning. Morehouse and Fort Valley State have also completed their schedules so there isn't much either can do to help or hurt their cause. I do think Morehouse is in very good shape while a loss by any of three through five seeds could open the door for FVSU or Catawba to sneak in.
Super Region Three
Overall Record Division II Record
1. Minnesota Duluth 10-0 10-0
2. Augustana (South Dakota) 9-1 9-1
3. Grand Valley State 9-1 9-1
4. Nebraska-Kearney 9-1 9-1
5. St. Cloud State 8-2 8-2
6. Hillsdale 8-2 8-2
7. Michigan Tech 7-2 7-2
8. Wayne State (Michigan) 8-2 8-2
9. Colorado School of Mines 8-2 7-2
10. Colorado State-Pueblo 8-2 7-2
UMD is going to be in the playoffs, but a loss to a decent Minnesota State team could drop the Bulldogs down to around fourth in the region. UNK and Colorado Mines play each other and my assumption is that one of the two will get in to the playoffs. Keep in mind that one of the two must finish in the top eight in the region (a virtual certainty) for earned access to kick in.
Augustana, GVSU, SCSU, Hillsdale, and Wayne State all play games they should win easily, while Michigan Tech will add to its strength of schedule by playing a decent Northern Michigan team. My belief is that if all of those teams win, they will stay in their current spot in the region, with MTU being the first team left out of the playoffs.
Super Region Four
Overall Record Division II Record
1. Abilene Christian 10-0 10-0
2. Texas A&M-Kingsville 9-1 9-1
3. Northwest Missouri State 8-1 8-1
4. Central Missouri 9-2 9-1
5. West Texas A&M 7-3 7-3
6. Missouri Western State 7-3 7-3
7. Midwestern State 7-3 7-3
8. Central Washington 7-3 6-2
9. Washburn 6-4 6-4
10. Humboldt State 7-3 5-2
This might be the easiest region to handicap. The top four teams are all in the playoffs no matter what happens. ACU, TAMUK, and NWMSU should win easily while UCM has completed its regular season. WTAMU will also get by winning on Saturday.
So, there are really only two items of interest in this region. First is figuring out which team will get the last playoff spot. MWSU has the inside track, but the Griffons have been upset prone in past seasons when playoff spots were on the line. MSU also has possibilities, but he Mustangs will have to knock off a decent Northeastern State team to have a chance and they may have to do so without star quarterback Zack Eskridge, who suffered an injury last week. I suppose it's even possible that CWU could sneak into the top six by beating Western Oregon, since the Wildcats will be improving their strength of schedule.
The second item of interest will be the seeding. TAMUK sits in second now because of its head to head win over Northwest Missouri, but the Javelinas have a lower strength of schedule. In other words, without the head to head win by TAMUK, the two teams would be flipped in the poll.
The difference in SOS is likely to get even wider this week as TAMUK plays 3-7 Southeastern Oklahoma while Northwest plays 5-5 Pittsburg State. I think it's likely that TAMUK will slip all the way down to fourth in the final poll, which of course would eliminate the possibility of the Bearcats and Javelinas flipping spots because UCM would be between them. This region is tough and having home field/ first round bye could be the difference between going deep in the playoffs and going home early.
Top Games this Week
PSAC Championship Game
Bloomsburg (9-1) at Mercyhurst (8-2)
Mercyhurst has a solid defense and an efficient offense. The problem for the Lakers is that they will be trying to defend a Husky running game that has simply mauled opponents over the second half of the season. The Huskies are simply the better team and playing the best of anyone in the region at this point. Bloomsburg 31 Mercyhurst 17.
CIAA Championship Game
Shaw (8-2) versus Virginia State (8-2)
Both teams have really clamped down defensively late this season, which leads me to believe that this will be a low scoring game. Shaw is a bit more explosive offensively, which leads me to believe that the Bears will make just enough plays to win this game. Shaw 17 Virginia State 10.
Nebraska-Kearney (9-1) at Colorado Mines (8-2)
CSM's loss to Chadron State last week takes some of the luster off of this game, but there is still plenty to play for with the RMAC title on the line. UNK is the more balanced team offensively, while the Orediggers rely heavily on a passing game that averaged 355 yards per game. The Lopers haven't lost a league game since 2008, and I like them in a close game. Nebraska-Kearney 30 Colorado Mines 27.
Western Oregon (7-3) at Central Washington (7-3)
Although it doesn't look like either team will make the playoffs, the GNAC title is on the line. CWU can win it outright by beating the Wolves, while WOU will most likely create a 3-way tie (with Humboldt State) with a win a Saturday. That said, CWU dominated WOU 19-0 a month ago, and the Wildcats should once again take care of business at home. Central Washington 24 Western Oregon 16.
Mailbag (Playoff Questions Edition)
[Q] Can you explain to your readers how this happens?
Grand Valley lost by a field goal in a close game to a 7-2 Michigan Tech (ranked in the regional rankings) and dropped from #1 in the country to #3 in their region. Augustana lost by double digits to 6-4 Wayne St. (not ranked in their region) a week later, yet they dropped from #1 in the region to #2 in region - AHEAD OF GRAND VALLEY.
The Football Committee has lost all credibility!!
Paul
[A] Augustana is 5-1 this year against teams with records better than .500 while Grand Valley is 2-1. This all adds up to Augustana having a much higher strength of schedule. The regional rankings don't take into account reputation or sense of entitlement.
[Q] I wonder if you could tell me if games versus provisional D2 teams count in W-L and/or SOS calculations for the regional rankings. I believe that Ohio Dominican is a provisional team this year (is that true?) and since Hillsdale, Wayne St, and Michigan Tech all played them it matters when determining the rankings for these teams. Thanks.
Dave
[A] My understanding is that games versus provisional D2 teams do count in the D2 W-L records but not in the SOS calculations for the regional rankings. So yes, Ohio Dominican is a provisional member this year and does count in the W-L records for their opponents. Lambuth is a provisional D2 team in the South that has played several D2 schools and effects the W-L records of their opponents.
[Q] My understanding of the strength of schedule influence in Super Regional rankings is-at least in part-to encourage teams to schedule tougher non-conference opponents. If this is indeed the case, do you think the NCAA has been successful? Also, how much of scheduling a tough opponent is really in any team's hand? For example, I'm sure Minnesota-Duluth would have liked Central Washington to have fewer losses at this point, but during scheduling, CWU looked like a great opponent in terms of strength of schedule. Should the NCAA be rewarding teams for higher SOS if much of an opponent's quality is indeterminable during scheduling, thus left to chance?
Ben
[A] I think it has been successful. If you look at the scheduling of teams like Northwest Missouri State, they are scheduling the toughest teams they can in out of conference with the understanding that playing those games helps at playoff time.
Of course there can be great variability from year to year and it's never a given that an out of conference opponent will have a good season and provide its opponent with a SOS boost. A good example this year is Saginaw Valley State. California has played SVSU the past two seasons. Last year when the Cardinals were a playoff team, Cal benefited from playing them. But with SVSU just 4-6 this year, the Vulcans would have been better off playing someone else. I'm sure most coaches understand, however, that scheduling games against other good programs will more often than not work out in their favor. Even though non-conference scheduling can be a risk, I do like the fact that a high SOS is rewarded come playoff time.
Contact
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