November 30th, 2010 12:00am
On a weekend where two number one seeds went down to defeat and two others barely escaped, the result from another game was the top eye-catcher: Augustana 38 Grand Valley State 6.
The Vikings forced six turnovers and rushed for 268 yards in handing GVSU its worse loss in 11 years. In fact, you have to go all the way back to 1991 to find another Laker defeat by 32 or more points. It is also the first time in 10 years that GVSU has failed to make the quarterfinals of the playoffs.
Grand Valley State is a young team with a transfer quarterback, suffered some key injuries on the defensive side of the ball, and had a new head coach. It was fairly predictable that the Lakers would have a bit of letdown this year. Quite frankly, I think GVSU did quite well just to win the GLIAC for a sixth consecutive year, all things considered.
If you look at GVSU's roster, there should be a great deal of talent returning in 2011. The two keys will be to find a new quarterback and to shore up a run defense that yielded over 200 rushing yards to five different opponents this season. If the Lakers can do those two things, they might even be the favorite to win it all going into next year.
On to the games remaining…
Super Region One Final
Shepherd (11-1) at Mercyhurst (10-2)
The Rams reached the region final in both 2006 and 2007, only to lose to PSAC schools. They will get a third crack at knocking off a PSAC school and reach a first ever national semifinal.
Shepherd has rushed for 282 and 243 yards in its two playoff wins. The game will literally come down to this: if the Rams can successfully run the football, they will be in this game and have a chance. If not, Mercyhurst has too many weapons offensively, and more talent overall. The Lakers have been playing the best football of anyone in the region over the last month, and I see no reason to believe that won't continue this week. Mercyhurst 30 Shepherd 21.
Super Region Two Final
Delta State (9-3) at Albany State (11-0)
What a great opportunity this is for ASU. The last time the Rams reached the regional fine (2004) they jumped out to a 24-0 lead on Valdosta State, only to see the Blazers score the next 38 points to win the game and eventually, the national championship.
DSU rushed for 359 yards last week against UNA and they will be facing a Rams defense that is second in the country, allowing just 59 yards per game on the ground. If ASU QB Stanley Jennings takes care of the football (he threw two interceptions last week), the Rams can and should score points against a very average DSU defense. What the game will come down to is ASU slowing down the Statesmen rushing attack. If they can do so, they will reach their first ever national semifinal. Albany State 27 Delta State 24.
Super Region Three Final
Augustana (11-1) at Minnesota-Duluth (12-0)
These two teams are old NCC foes, but are in opposite divisions in the NSIC. Since they did not play in the regular season but won their respective divisions, this game is not only for a spot in the semifinals, but also a NSIC title in a roundabout way.
The similarities between the two teams are striking. They are second and third in the country in scoring defense and both defenses are great at stopping the run. Both teams prefer to run the football, but both have a big play receiver (Tyler Schulte for Augie, D.J. Winfield for UMD) to keep defenses honest. I think UMD gets a slight edge because they are a bit stronger offensively, but this game is going to be a war. Minnesota-Duluth 23 Augustana 17.
Super Region Four Final
Central Missouri (11-2) at Northwest Missouri State (11-1)
When these two teams met a month ago, UCM held a nine point lead in the fourth quarter and missed some opportunities to put the game away, which allowed the Bearcats to come back and win 17-16 on a last second field goal.
I really feel that UCM is playing better football in the playoffs, especially offensively. The Mules have scored 55 points in both of their playoff wins, and if they can do a better job in the red zone this time around should score a few more points than they did earlier against Northwest. In their last six games, the Bearcats have two one point wins and have had to rally from double digit deficits in both playoff games. One has to wonder how much longer the Bearcats can keep the magic alive and how much gas is left in the tank.
Under normal circumstances, I would pick UCM in this game for the reasons I mentioned above. But playing Northwest in the playoffs is not normal circumstances. The Bearcats' ability to win in the playoffs has been uncanny over the last five years, and I will believe that someone can knock them off when I see it. Northwest Missouri State 31 Central Missouri 27.
Pioneer Bowl
St. Augustine's (8-2) versus Fort Valley State (8-2)
The Pioneer Bowl is back after a year hiatus and features what should be a pretty good match up. St. Augustine's has a good defense, but FVSU leads the nation in total defense (207 yards allowed per game) while playing a better schedule. Fort Valley State 27 St. Augustine's 13.
Kanza Bowl
Midwestern State (8-3) versus Washburn (7-4)
This game features two good offensive teams. Both teams missed out on the playoffs because they couldn't stop the other good offenses. The MIAA has owned the LSC this postseason and with the Ichabods playing in their hometown, they have to be favored. Washburn 31 Midwestern State 24.
Mineral Water Bowl
Concordia-St. Paul (8-3) versus Pittsburg State (5-6)
The Gorillas have to come into this game with some confidence after nearly knocking off Northwest Missouri State in their regular season finale. But CSP comes into this game with two of its three losses coming against playoff teams and a very underrated defense. If the Golden Bears can control the Gorilla rushing attack, they will win this game. Concordia-St. Paul 24 Pittsburg State 20.
Harlon Hill Finalists
The list of nine Harlon Hill Trophy finalists was announced last week. They are:
Franklyn Quiteh FR RB Bloomsburg
Key Stats: 2015 rushing yards, 22 TDs
Zach Amedro SR QB West Liberty
Key Stats: 4058 passing yards, 38 TDs
Bo Cordell SO QB Tusculum
Key Stats: 4657 passing yards, 38 TDs, 9 rushing TDs
Nick Hardesty SR QB Henderson State
Key Stats: 4007 passing yards, 30 TDs
Clay Garcia JR QB Colorado Mines
Key Stats: 4066 passing yards, 39 TDs
Phil Milbrath SR RB Michigan Tech
Key Stats: 1412 rushing yards, 10 TDs
Blake Bolles SR QB Northwest Missouri State
Key Stats: 3470 passing yards, 26 TDs
Mitchell Gale SO QB Abilene Christian
Key Stats: 3595 passing yards, 38 TDs, 3 INTs
Eric Czerniewski SR QB Central Missouri
Key Stats: 4995 passing yards, 44 TDs
My feeling is that it should come down to Amedro or Czerniewski. Amedro was the runner up for the award last season, became just the second D2 quarterback to average over 400 passing yards per game this year, and is D2's all time leading passer.
Czerniewski is the MIAA's all-time leader is passing and total offense, will go over 5,000 passing yards for the season this week, and has been at his best when it has counted most, throwing 10 TD passes in his two playoff games.
I will put it like this. I feel Amedro will most likely win the award, but if I had a vote I would lean towards Czerniewski. The better competition in the MIAA and Czerniewski's tremendous postseason performance are what lead me to feel this way.
Mailbag
[Q] I have always wondered what DII schools' average attendance is during the regular season and playoffs. I graduated from Shepherd and it's been really cool to see them get 5,000 to 6,000 fans in the stands when their enrollment is only 4,000 students. Do you know what attendance has been like during this year's playoffs? Also, it would be really neat to see a feature on D2Football.com next year where the schools' average attendance or game by game attendance is listed along with their stadiums and schedules.
Marcio
[A] The NCAA does a good job of compiling attendance figures. You can find the information you are seeking here:
http://web1.ncaa.org/mfb/2010/Internet/attendance/ii_attendance.html
As far as the playoffs go, you'll generally find that the attendance is a bit lower than it is in the regular season. There are a few reasons for this. One, it's later in the year where it gets cold (especially in the north obviously) which cuts back on attendance. Secondly, season ticket holders have to purchase tickets on a game by game basis for the playoffs like the average fan would. Another issue is that at many schools students get free entrance into games during the season but have to pay like everyone else in the playoffs. And the last factor is that in conference play teams are playing teams that are near by where visiting fans can travel. In the playoffs it's more likely that the schools will be a distance apart, which prevents large numbers of visiting fans from attending. Add all of these factors together, and it generally leads to reduced postseason attendance.
[Q] What's your opinion of the new Great American Conference? Do you think it will be competitive nationally in D-II?
Kevin
[A] Just to fill the readers in on what this conference actually is, it is a combination of the Arkansas schools from the Gulf South Conference (Arkansas Tech, Arkansas-Monticello, Harding, Henderson State, Ouachita Baptist, Southern Arkansas) and three Oklahoma schools from the Lone Star Conference (Southeastern Oklahoma State, Southwestern Oklahoma State, and East Central University). It was confirmed earlier this fall that this league was forming, but the naming of the league just took place last week.
My opinion is that it was probably a good idea from both a competitive and cost (travel) standpoint for this league to form. I don't like what the formation of this league is doing to the Gulf South, but that is an entirely different conversation.
As far as nationally competitive, I would say no… at least not in the near future. ATU, HSU, OBU, and Harding are all solid programs, but none are close to being national championship caliber.
Interestingly, NAIA Oklahoma schools Northwest Oklahoma State and Southern Nazarene have both announced in the last week or so that they will move to D-II. It certainly seems likely that the Great American Conference will be growing.
Contact
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