August 30th, 2011 12:00am
What an eventful off-season.
When I last wrote a column eight months ago, Mel Tjeerdsma was still the head coach at Northwest Missouri State. With Tjeersdma's retirement and the tragic passing in June of his replacement, Scott Bostwick, Adam Dorrel becomes the third Bearcat coach to lead the program since December. This comes at a school that has had the same head coach (Tjeerdsma) and defensive coordinator (Bostwick) since 1994.
Nebraska-Omaha shocked everyone by electing to drop football and move to Division I in March. The Mavericks had been a very good program, with 14 straight winning seasons from 1996-2009 and also making eight playoff appearances over that timeframe. UNO was also the top-ranked team in the country at the end of the 2007 regular season.
North Alabama has also elected in June to move to D-I in two years, but the Lions will obviously be keeping their football program. The loss of UNA isn't so much about football, as other D2 programs will step up to fill the void. The question will be what happens to the D2 title game which has been hosted by UNA and the city of Florence since 1986. Further complicating matters is that the fact that Florence is the host of both the Harlon Hill Trophy and the Division II Football Hall of Fame.
We also have a shifting regional alignment coming in 2012, the rebuilding of the Gulf South Conference, and several new programs joining the division. Oh, and I might even get to some prognostications on the 2011 season later in the column!
Regional Alignment Changes
For 2011, it's pretty simple. Then newly formed Great America Conference will join Super Region Four. GAC teams can reach the playoffs via the regional selection process, but since the conference is new, its teams won't be eligible for any automatic berths into the postseason. Of course there are no auto-berths in football so the only way there would be any issues is if earned access comes into play.
In 2012 is when it gets interesting. Super Regions One and Two will be unchanged, leaving the eastern half of the country stable. But Super Region Three will include the GAC, NSIC, MIAA, and GNAC. Super Region Four will include the GLIAC, the GLVC (which begins play in 2012), the RMAC, and the LSC. The change was made to try to even out the number of teams in each region, leaving 44 teams in SR3 and 41 in SR4. I understand that reasoning and from a competitive standpoint these regions should be fairly similar, with some power programs and conferences in each.
But geographically, this just doesn't make a lot of sense. GAC teams from Oklahoma and Arkansas won't be in the same region as Texas schools, but could be playing teams from Minnesota and Washington? An RMAC team could fly right over the MIAA to play a GLVC team in a "regional" playoff game? Although the GLIAC and LSC are both fine football conferences, they are about as different culturally and geographically as it gets. But they will be in the same region? How many Abilene Christian fans would be able to get to Allendale, MI to see a playoff game on a week's notice in November? Not to mention there will be very few in-region non-conference games.
I know I've brought this up in the past, but I will say it again: It's time for the powers that be in this division to realize that the strict regions based on conference affiliation just don't work very well in football. I would propose that Division II adopt a system similar to what Division III has. In D-III, every conference is awarded a playoff spot for its champion. This would eliminate the silliness of earned access and place a premium on regular season performance.
Then, the best at-large teams would be selected using a combination of human polls and computers (different from what D-III does, but similar to the GPI used by the FCS for playoff selection). I would place two caveats on at-large selection: no more than three teams from a conference and no more than three losses by a team to be considered. This would insure that there is some balance of teams across the country.
I would then regionalize the teams after the 24 selections have been made. This would keep travel costs down and still keep to a regionalized format. One year, Northwest Missouri State (using them as an example because they are in the middle of the country) might be in a region with Minnesota-Duluth, while the next year in a region with Abilene Christian. Also, there would be no requirement that teams from the same conference be together in the same region.
A system similar to this would cut down on travel, give every league a guaranteed shot at the postseason each year and insure that the best at-large teams reach the playoffs. Sounds like a win-win-win to me.
Also, while I'm on my soap box, it is my understanding that both the MIAA and NSIC intend to go to 11-game conference schedules in 2012, leaving no room for non-conference games.
The MIAA is hurting the entire division by no longer playing non-conference games. The MIAA sits right in the middle of the country, surrounded by other conferences that need the MIAA for out-of-league games. For any administrator or coach from that league to say that finding non-conference games is too hard is not telling the whole truth, in my opinion. It's a selfish and short-sighted move.
Why can't the MIAA and NSIC do what the GLIAC and PSAC do-- have a 10-game league schedule leaving week one open for non-conference games for those schools that want to play? No one is forced into playing a non-league game but those that do have the option.
The funny thing is that over the long haul these leagues are only hurting themselves by going to insular scheduling. The strength of schedule used to select and seed playoff teams is largely determined by non-conference games. For example, a league that goes 15-5 overall in non-conference games will have teams with a much higher SOS than a league that goes 5-15. But take away non-league games and there is nothing to differentiate the strength of conferences when it comes to playoff selection.
The loss of Nebraska-Omaha has left the MIAA with an odd number of teams for the time being, so it will delay the league implementing its new scheduling policy. Hopefully that is enough time to reconsider.
Rebuilding the Gulf South
You have to give GSC commissioner Nate Salant a bunch of credit. When you consider that the six Arkansas schools announced that they were leaving the league last fall, followed by North Alabama's announcement that it would pursue D-I status, it appeared as if the GSC was dead in the water.
But Salant has managed to land the University of New Orleans (which plans to add football) from D-I, Shorter College, Florida Tech (a new program starting football next year), and last week it was announced that existing GSC member West Florida will add football. Plus, with the geographic footprint of the league now shifting further east and south, it opens the door to the possibility that more non-football D2 schools in Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina (of which there are many) could add the sport and have a league to play in.
Outside of North Alabama, most of the new schools have more long-term football potential than any of the other schools the league has lost and are located in areas (Louisiana, Florida) that were underserved when it comes to small college football. Give the GSC some time and it will be a better football league than it was previously. Also, how does a future national championship site of either Pensacola or New Orleans sound? I like it!
North Alabama Making a Mistake by Moving to D-I
I usually don't talk much in this column about schools leaving Division II for a couple of reasons. One, there are still 150 or more schools that will continue to play at this level to devote my attention to. And two, as I mentioned earlier, a new school will always step up to fill the void. Example: everyone thought that the loss of the Dakota schools to D-I would be a major blow in that area of the country but Minnesota-Duluth has stepped up to become a two-time national champion while other NSIC programs such as Augustana and Wayne State have greatly improved and become playoff contenders. Heck, North Alabama's glory years (1993-95 three-peat) came on the heels of Jacksonville State and Troy State (now Troy) leaving the division. Someone new will see the opportunity and run with it.
I am also not one of those people that believe it is always bad for a school to leave this division. Moving to D-I made a lot of sense for California-Davis. It has been a good move for North Dakota State. As painful as the transition process can be, moving to D-I is looking like it will be a good move long-term for my alma mater, North Dakota. I don't like how it went down, but I see a lot of merit to Nebraska-Omaha's decision to leave this division. Grand Valley State could announce tomorrow that it was going D-I and I would find very little to be critical of.
I know people reading this column will have a tendency to view everything related to divisional alignment through the paradigm of football, which is understandable. But, as I have learned following my alma mater's transition, it is much more than that: It is about aligning yourself academically and athletically with like institutions. That's why sometimes a school needs to make the move to reach its overall potential and align itself with similar schools. And sometimes a school with a good athletic program is jumping into quicksand by making the move.
North Alabama fits into the latter category. UNA, like a vast majority of D2 institutions, is a smaller, regional, public institution. Being a former teachers' college with a limited research function and being in a smaller metro area makes UNA a perfect fit for D2. While there is nothing wrong with striving for more, there is also nothing wrong with being what you are and fitting the role within higher education for which you were designed.
You also have the fact that 58% of the current student body voted against the move. UNA's target athletic budget in Division I is $7.5 million, which is almost double the current $4 million. The average FCS budget is $8.6 million, so UNA is likely to go from a D2 power to a D-I also-ran.
Then there is conference affiliation. UNA is likely to receive an invitation to join the Ohio Valley Conference. The only real upside to that conference is the fact that the rivalry with Jacksonville State can be restored. Other than that there are many negatives. The heart of the OVC is in Kentucky, Illinois and Tennessee-- outside of UNA's traditional recruiting area. UNA would become the second smallest school in a weak FCS football conference.
I have heard the argument that Division I will be good for the Shoals because of an increase in economic impact. But Division II will almost certainly move the championship game out of Florence, negating the net economic effect. And what becomes of Florence's other two D2 staples- the D2 Hall of Fame and the Harlon Hill Trophy?
So, to summarize, I think North Alabama is making a major mistake in leaving Division II, especially now that it appears as if the Gulf South Conference will be rebuilt to a level stronger than it was before.
Division II Football Growing
This website is now covering 158 Division II (active and provisional) football programs. Despite the loss of schools like Nebraska-Omaha and (potentially) North Alabama, there are several more schools in the pipeline to join Division II in the next couple of years. In addition to the University of New Orleans, Florida Tech and West Florida, Alderson-Broaddus of the WVIAC also has announced within the last week that it intends to start a football program. There are also several other current D2 schools that are rumored to be looking at the addition of football. It's not unreasonable to predict that there will be more than 175 schools playing D2 football within five years.
Some might complain that the addition of so many new programs will "water down" the division. I don't agree. New Orleans, Florida Tech and West Florida are programs with real potential to excel at this level of play. The University of Sioux Falls, which is a provisional member this fall, is the best NAIA program to come to D2 since the days of Pittsburg State and Carson-Newman joining a couple of decades ago. Azusa Pacific will be another tremendous addition, giving the GNAC a sixth school and adding a presence in Southern California.
In addition, Division II is now being selective about which schools it allows to enter the division. This is keeping out schools that are ill-prepared and helping to insure that growth is being managed properly. Division II was literally overrun by new schools in the 1990's, many of which had no idea what it took to run a quality athletic program in this division. Many of those schools that joined during that timeframe are just now becoming able to compete at a high level in football.
It was just a few years ago that there seemed to be much divisiveness and talk of splitting football into two separate scholarship levels. Now everyone seems to be on board with this division's philosophy. With so many quality new additions and the improvement of many existing programs, the next decade is going to be an exciting time to follow Division II football.
Preseason Predictions
In Super Region One, California is my preseason pick to win the region. The Vulcans have the top defense in the region, are loaded with talent at the skill positions and have a talented quarterback joining the team in Oregon State transfer Peter Lalich. The only area with inexperience is the offensive line, but again Cal has gone the transfer route to shore this area of the team up.
If the Vulcans falter, defending champ Shepherd is a good bet to win the region again. The Rams return standout running back Tommy Addison (1670 rushing yards) and a solid defense from last year's semifinal team. Some other teams to watch in the region would include Bloomsburg, Mercyhurst, Kutztown, West Liberty and New Haven.
In Super Region Two, Delta State is the favorite to repeat. The Statesmen return 17 starters from last year's national runner up, led by senior quarterback Micah Davis (over 4000 passing yards and 33 touchdowns). DSU is a senior laden team and on the short list of teams capable of winning the national championship.
Also watch out for North Alabama. The Lions are loaded with talent, with Terry Bowden once again bringing in several D-I transfers. If everything clicks, this is a program with enough talent to challenge for the region and national titles.
The rest of SR2 is fairly wide open. Perennial power Valdosta State suffered heavy personnel losses, but has the potential to reload. Wingate and Carson-Newman from the SAC look to have playoff potential while Albany State from the SIAC is a good bet to make an eighth straight playoff appearance.
It's obviously difficult to pick against a Minnesota-Duluth team that has gone 15-0 with two national championships over the last three years, but Grand Valley State is my pick in Super Region Three. The Lakers had defensive line issues last year but with the return of All-American Danny Richard and a couple of other standouts that missed last season with injuries, the D-line should be a Laker strength this season. Combine that with a very talented offense, and not only is GVSU my pick to win SR3, but the national championship as well.
UMD is also a team capable of winning the region, especially with quarterback Chase Vogler and the entire offensive line returning from a national championship team. The Bulldogs must find some new skill players on offense and fill some holes defensively. Other talented teams like St. Cloud State, Augustana, and Hillsdale make this a very deep region.
Abilene Christian is my pick to dethrone six-time defending Super Region Four champ Northwest Missouri State. The Wildcats (11-1 last year) return standout quarterback Mitchell Gale (38 touchdowns with just three interceptions last year) to a very talented and experienced offense. The one area ACU must reload is at linebacker, but a strong defensive line should help in that regard.
As noted before, it has been a tumultuous off-season at NWMSU. The Bearcats were already facing a fairly hefty rebuilding job before all of the coaching upheaval. But, as always with this program, there is still plenty of talent waiting in the wings and Northwest was one of the primary beneficiaries of Nebraska-Omaha's program shutting down, as former UNO standout running back James Franklin has been added to the roster. This team will once again be a factor in the region. Other SR4 teams to watch are West Texas A&M, Texas A&M-Kingsville, Central Missouri and Washburn.
Week One Games to Watch
Ashland at Bloomsburg
St. Cloud State at California
Western Oregon at Grand Valley State
Pittsburg State at Missouri Western
Washburn at Sioux Falls
Nebraska-Kearney at Wayne State
CSU-Pueblo at West Texas A&M
Texas A&M-Kingsville at Central Washington
Valdosta State at Wingate
Minnesota-Duluth at Augustana
Michigan Tech at Winona State
UNC-Pembroke at Fayetteville State
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