September 13th, 2011 12:00am
If you would kindly ignore my preseason predictions and allow me a do-over, I would appreciate it.
Grand Valley's loss to Hillsdale last week pretty much finishes off the last of my predictions that still had merit considering that I had pegged the Lakers as my national championship favorite.
There is no question it has been a wild first two weeks of the season. 11 of last season's 24 playoff teams have already suffered losses. The list of 0-2 teams includes Wingate, West Liberty, West Chester, Central Washington, Augustana and Chadron State. That's six perennial playoff contenders that are nearly out of it by September 15th. Meanwhile, programs such as New Mexico Highlands and Pace have already exceeded their win totals from last year.
The GLIAC and NSIC both have 14 teams. The GLIAC has just four 2-0 teams and the NSIC just three. Northwest Missouri State, Washburn, and Pittsburg State are the only 2-0 teams from the MIAA. Strange.
So, forgive me if it takes some time to get a grasp on the 2011 season. If I've learned anything from my years of writing for this site, it's to keep throwing darts at the board until I hit a bull's eye.
For now, I'll go with Northwest Missouri State as my new national championship favorite. Since the Bearcats play a badly overmatched Lincoln team on Saturday, my new prediction should look good for at least a week.
Random Thoughts from Week Two
-Humboldt State knocked off Central Washington 38-36 last Thursday in front of a national TV audience on CBS College Sports. Not only was it an exciting game between two good D2 teams, but it also showcased the incredible job Robb Smith has done in turning around the HSU program. The Lumberjacks look like they could be on their way to overtaking CWU for D2 supremacy in the West.
-Every year there seems to be a team or two that puts up video game like offensive numbers. This season that team appears to be Nebraska-Kearney. The Lopers have racked up an incredible 1324 yards of offense through their first two games.
-Loper defensive back Arthur Hobbs also intercepted three passes last week in UNK's 65-10 win over Northeastern State. Hobbs set a D2 record with 214 interception return yards with touchdown returns of 98 and 90 yards. He also recovered a fumble.
-The comeback of the week goes to Angelo State. The Rams trailed Chadron State 42-21 in the 4th quarter and CSC had the football. But ASU linebacker D.J. Clough swung the momentum by returning a fumble for a score and the Rams went on to add three more scores to win the game 49-42.
-Lincoln (MO) was not competitive in its first MIAA game, giving up 49 first quarter and 66 first half points in a loss to Washburn. This program is light years away from competing with MIAA teams.
-A quick glance at the schedule reveals that independent UNC-Pembroke plays five SAC teams this season. Why don't the Braves seek the same scheduling alliance with the SAC that North Greenville has?
Top Games this Week
The epicenter of D2 football this weekend will be at Cowboys Stadium in Dallas with three games taking place, including North Alabama versus Abilene Christian and Texas A&M-Kingsville versus West Texas A&M. This should be a great showcase for these programs and hopefully this is something that can continue for years to come.
Bloomsburg (2-0) at IUP (1-0)
The Frank Cignetti Jr. era begins in earnest for IUP as they host Bloomsburg in the season's second nationally televised game (CBS College Sports at 8 pm Eastern Thursday night). IUP has some talent, but I believe the Husky rushing attack will be too much. Bloomsburg 28 IUP 21.
Valdosta State (2-0) at Albany State (2-0)
After a three year hiatus, this backyard brawl returns. Both teams have played Wingate this year, with the Blazers winning in overtime, while ASU dominated last week beating the Bulldogs 49-28. But history in this series is on the side of VSU, who has won 13 of 14 meetings all-time against ASU. Despite VSU's historical dominance, I like Stanley Jennings and Co. in a close game. Albany State 24 Valdosta State 21.
Ashland (1-1) at Hillsdale (1-1)
Both teams are coming off of emotional wins last week, but they shouldn't have much trouble getting motivated for this pivotal GLIAC South Division game. I think standout running back Joe Glendening gives the Chargers a slight edge. Hillsdale 30 Ashland 27.
Grand Valley (1-1) at Indianapolis (1-1)
The Lakers will have to rebound against a solid Indianapolis team that will be feisty after losing in four overtimes to Ashland last week. If GVSU quarterback Heath Parling has a decent game, the Lakers should win. Grand Valley 35 Indianapolis 17.
Michigan Tech (2-0) at Wayne State (2-0)
WSU is averaging 62 points per game. MTU allows just eight. Something is going to have to give there. These have been the two most impressive teams in the GLIAC to this point and the winner will be sitting in prime position to claim a playoff spot at the end of the year. Wayne State 27 Michigan Tech 24.
St. Cloud (2-0) at Winona State (1-1)
WSU looked a bit more like a playoff contender in dismantling MSU-Moorhead last week, but the Warriors will have their hands full with an SCSU team that looks like a team capable of going deep in the playoffs. St. Cloud State 34 Winona State 21.
North Alabama (2-0) vs Abilene Christian (1-0)
ACU was shaky offensively in its opener and the Wildcats will have to play much better to contend with a North Alabama defense that features some of the top talent in the country. This should be a great game that could go either way. North Alabama 24 Abilene Christian 20.
West Texas A&M (0-1) vs Texas A&M-Kingsville (2-0)
This game is hard to predict. WTAMU lost its opener despite out gaining CSU-Pueblo by nearly 300 yards. TAMUK has been just so-so offensively so far, but has a lights out defense. This is another game that could go either way. Texas A&M-Kingsville 28 West Texas A&M 27.
Mailbag
[Q] In looking at the regional realignment for next year I'm struggling with the choice to put the NSIC with the MIAA. Northwest Missouri and Minnesota-Duluth have won the last three national titles. And the way the year is starting they look to be the favorites to meet in Florence in December. It just seems such a shame to have those two play for a regional title rather than a national title. Is there any hope of seeing an end to strict regionalism in D2?
Jason
[A] First off, this sort of thing has happened before. Grand Valley and North Dakota combined for five national championship game appearances in the three year period for 2001-03, but were put in the same region in 2004 and subsequently met the next four years in the regional playoffs until UND left the division. There isn't much regard for competitive equity when forming the regions.
As I have mentioned several times in past columns, I would like for the strict regionalism to be changed in football. But we have had regional play for over 20 years now and it has basically become institutionalized in Division II. I doubt that even if a new system made sense that it would be it would be given any consideration.
[Q] In your opinion how would you rank the conferences in regards to strength of football programs? More importantly where does the CIAA fall in regards to the rest?
Saba
[A] A couple of things to keep in mind here. One, the GSC and GNAC don't technically qualify as conferences this year because each has just five teams. But I will include them for comparative purposes. Also, this can be a bit of a loaded question because people can use different criteria when judging. This would be my list:
1. MIAA: The loss of Nebraska-Omaha (and gaining Lincoln) hurts this league, but a top five of Northwest Missouri, Washburn, Central Missouri, Pittsburg State, and Missouri Western make this my top conference.
2. GSC: Only five teams, but three of them are Delta State, North Alabama, and Valdosta State. Enough said.
3. GLIAC: Grand Valley has slipped a bit, but Ashland, Hillsdale, Wayne State, Saginaw Valley, and Michigan Tech are all very solid programs.
4. NSIC: A strong argument could be made that Minnesota-Duluth is the top program in the country right now. Not as deep with good teams as the GLIAC is, but many programs have seen recent improvement.
5. LSC: Shedding the Oklahoma schools makes this league stronger overall but two factors prevent me from ranking it higher: A lack of playoff success from its top programs and the fact that there are still 2-3 weak programs at the bottom.
6. SAC: With Carson-Newman and Catawba slipping there are no elite programs, but five of the eight teams in this league have made the playoffs over the last five years.
7. PSAC: The overall quality of this conference has gone down over the past two years, which is surprising considering that the scholarship limitations are now gone.
8. GNAC: Humboldt State stepping up to join Central Washington at the top of this league helps immensely, along with having a very solid third team in Western Oregon.
9. SIAC: Albany State is a perennial playoff program, but Tuskegee is down and none of the other teams in this league have shown an ability to do much outside of league play.
10. RMAC: Nebraska-Kearney, Colorado Mines, CSU-Pueblo, and Chadron State are solid programs, but the bottom half of this league is very weak.
11. WVIAC: Shepherd makes a great one, but with West Liberty slipping back to the pack, there is still a great deal of mediocrity in this conference. It's better overall than it was five years ago, however.
12. GAC: New league has 3-4 solid programs, but some very weak ones as well.
13. CIAA: Hopefully, Winston-Salem State's return from D-I can raise the overall profile of this conference. Not getting embarrassed in the playoffs (like Shaw did last year) would also help.
14. NE-10: This conference hasn't had a team reach the playoffs since 2008… in D2's weakest region.
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