Bob Eblen's National Column

October 18th, 2011 12:00am

Bob Eblen's National Column

 

The one versus two match up of North Alabama and Delta State was as good as advertised. DSU's 30-24 overtime win over UNA vaulted the Statesmen to the top of our poll for the first time in a decade and puts them in an excellent position to make a run back to the national championship game.

But there is something very important to remember in the series between UNA and DSU. Over the last five years, there have been four playoff rematches between the two teams. On three of those occasions, the team that lost in the regular season won the rematch in the playoffs. One of those times was last year, when the Statesmen avenged a 31-7 regular season loss with a 47-24 playoff win.

So, although the Statesmen have bragging rights for now, a regular season game in this series is often just a precursor to something bigger. I have a feeling we will see these two teams play again in Cleveland, MS in late November or early December.

In the RMAC, Colorado State-Pueblo's 27-14 win over Nebraska-Kearney leaves them alone on top of the conference and means that the undefeated Thunderwolves will likely be making a playoff appearance in just their fourth season since reinstating football.

CSU-Pueblo's success got me thinking about an interesting recent phenomenon in D2 football: the meteoric rise of many new programs in this division. In addition to what's going on at CSU-Pueblo, New Haven is on top of the Northeast 10 and likely headed for the postseason in just its third season since reinstating its program. North Carolina-Pembroke is 32-17 overall since starting a football program in 2007, including a 2009 playoff appearance and a 5-2 record this year. Notre Dame College is 5-2 in just its second season of football as it transitions from the NAIA into D2.

To a cynic, the rapid success of so many new programs would mean that D2 has a problem because it shouldn't be this easy. How could so many new programs just blow by schools that have been fielding football teams for decades?

To a certain extent, the cynic would be right. As I have brought up ad nauseum in this column, there are a many, many D2 schools that are just going through the motions when it comes to football. They field a team because they always have, or simply because it drives enrollment, or because it would tick off too many alumni to do away with it. But they also have no intention of really investing in the program. Improvements are only made so the school doesn't get embarrassed too badly by the product on the football field. There is no real drive to compete for league or national titles.

For that reason, these new programs have a big advantage on much of the division simply because having no tradition is easier to overcome than a negative tradition is. But to say that the reason for the success of these new programs is because not enough of the existing ones care is oversimplifying it.

The big reason for the success of these new programs is that, from top to bottom, they are done right. Coaches are put in place well in advance of the first season so they can recruit and plan. New or updated facilities were built at CSU-Pueblo, UNC-Pembroke and New Haven. Many of these programs were also given max budgets and scholarship dollars to ensure their success. No school president or athletic director wants his or her name attached to a new football program that fails. Especially when the startup costs can be in the millions of dollars.

In the next few years, we are due to see the formation of new programs at Florida Tech, West Florida, and the University of New Orleans. All indications are that the administrations at these schools are taking all the right steps to make sure that they too put out a good product.

The sky is the limit when it comes to the potential at these three schools. They are all in an area where D2 football is absent, but there is immense high school talent. They are also in an area of the country where football is king. I'm dead serious when I say it would be possible for the right coaching staff to win a national championship at one of these schools five to ten years after the program is formed.

So, how about bringing football to Lewis University and Southern Indiana of the GLVC? Or Augusta State and Columbus State in Georgia? Or Sonoma State and Cal State-Chico in California? These are just a few examples of schools that in my opinion could have very good D2 football programs if done right. There are others out there as well.

With so many new programs having success and the opportunity that leagues like the GLVC and the "new and improved" GSC present, don't be surprised to see several more new programs in the coming years, especially if the economy improves.

Random Thoughts from Last Week

-Just a couple of days after I declared Nebraska-Kearney quarterback Jake Spitzlberger my midseason Harlon Hill favorite, he threw four 4th-quarter interceptions in his team's 27-14 loss to CSU-Pueblo. I think the "Sports Illustrated Curse" I was having on teams earlier this year may be carrying over to individuals as well.

-When I made my list of possible Harlon Hill winners last week, I received emails from a few people wondering why a player from their school didn't receive mention. Like I wrote last week, it is way too early to say that a player is a shoe-in to be a finalist or on the other hand, out of the running. I just made my list to give readers a list of players to keep an eye on as the season progresses.

-Slippery Rock now has a firm handle on the PSAC West Division after shutting down California 17-3 last week. SRU (6-1 overall) is unbeaten in the division and also owns wins over Indiana and Edinboro. The Rock is doing it with defense as they lead the country in total defense, allowing just 212 yards per game.

-Mars Hill is attempting to ride Jonas Randolph to a SAC title. Randolph rushed 46 times for 331 yards in the Mountain Lions' overtime win over Catawba last week and is averaging over 33 carries per game for the season. Randolph is the nation's leading rusher with 1317 yards.

-As you've probably heard by now, Trey McVay of Northeastern State set the NCAA single game receiving record with an incredible 425 yards in his team's 49-41 win over Harding last week. He also had 16 catches and six touchdown receptions. Coming into the game, McVay wasn't even the leading receiver on his team!

-Winston-Salem State clinched the CIAA's South Division title last week. A win by Elizabeth City State over Bowie State this week would all but wrap up the North Division for ECSU and yield a rematch between the Rams and Vikings (a 22-17 WSSU win on 9/3) in the league championship game. The Rams are still unbeaten while ECSU is 5-2, their other loss to Delta State in overtime.

Problems at Chadron State

Chadron State announced late last week that it had self-reported some potential violations to the NCAA regarding football fundraising. This week the school announced that head coach Bill O'Boyle is stepping aside from coaching for the remainder of the season to focus on the investigation. O'Boyle is being replaced by Brad Smith, who is the current CSC athletic director and was the head coach of the program from 1987-2004.

None of this can be construed as good. Without knowing more details, I can only assume two things from the situation. One, there is the potential that some major violations have occurred. And two, O'Boyle's future at Chadron State is in serious jeopardy.

A New Conference Forming

Kentucky Wesleyan officials announced last week that they are leaving the GLVC to join five other D2 schools in forming the Great Midwest Athletic Conference. The other football playing schools involved are Central State, Urbana, and Notre Dame College.

This move affects football because KWC, CSU, and Urbana were all scheduled to be part of GLVC football, which begins play next year. All indications are that those three schools will continue playing GLVC football as associate members for the foreseeable future.

What the formation of this new conference is likely to do, however, is pull in several new D2 schools from the NAIA ranks. The NAIA Mid South conference includes several schools within the geographic footprint of the new league. Georgetown College was already entertaining its NCAA options and several other schools are rumored to be doing the same. I would imagine that in a few years the G-MAC will either have its own football conference or be in some sort of scheduling alliance with the GLVC.

Top Games this Week

Ashland (5-2) at Saginaw Valley State (4-2)
National TV: CBS College Sports 8:00 PM Eastern Thursday

Neither team can afford a third loss, so this is basically a playoff game in October. SVSU has the advantage of being at home, but Ashland has the better running game and defense and the Eagles do a better job of taking care of the ball. Ashland 28 Saginaw Valley 25.

Wayne State (MI) (6-1) at Hillsdale (5-2)

WSU must rebound from its first loss of the year against a very solid Hillsdale team. These two teams are so similar as both feature great running games and solid defenses. Flip a coin. Hillsdale 24 Wayne State 23.

Ferris State (5-2) at Grand Valley State (4-3)

Did you realize that FSU had a 41-game conference winning streak in the mid-90s that was ended by Grand Valley State? From 1992-96 FSU was a dominant program in the Midwest but has now lost 10 straight games to its rivals from GVSU. This would appear to be FSU's best shot in some time at knocking off the Lakers, as the Bulldogs are a solid team on both sides of the ball and are led by senior quarterback Tom Schneider. It's tough for me to pick against GV at home, however. Grand Valley 30 Ferris State 27.

Pittsburg State (7-0) at Central Missouri (5-2)

As great as the Gorilla defense has been this year, Tommy Corwin and the Mule offense will move the football and probably score some points. But, the Gorillas average 268 rushing yards per game while UCM is giving up over 200. I fully expect the PSU ground game to play keep away from the Mule offense just enough to get out of Warrensburg with a win. Pittsburg State 27 Central Missouri 20.

Washburn (7-0) at Northwest Missouri State (6-1)

The Bearcats have won six straight in this series, but the last four have been decided by a total of eight points. Washburn always plays Northwest tough. The Bearcats have been without standout receiver Jake Soy the last couple of weeks, which could be a major factor in a game of this magnitude if he can't play. Still, I think the Bearcats are a slight favorite at home. Northwest Missouri State 31 Washburn 27.

Wayne State (NE) (5-2) at Minnesota State (5-2)

With both teams having just a single league loss, this game will play a large role in deciding the NSIC title. Despite the fine record and a win over Minnesota-Duluth, WSC has some holes defensively that MSU will exploit. Minnesota State 31 Wayne State 24.

Valdosta State (6-1) at Delta State (7-1)

DSU would be in a natural letdown situation after knocking off top-ranked UNA last week. But the fact that the game was on Thursday should be a big help in getting refocused as is the fact that this week's opponent is VSU. I think the Statesmen win because they are better on both sides of the football. Delta State 27 Valdosta State 17.

Abilene Christian (5-1) at Midwestern State (6-0)

MSU has been dominant this season, averaging over 51 points and 550 yards of offense per game. The Mustangs have also manhandled two opponents-- Angelo State and Tarleton State-- that each gave ACU problems. But, call me crazy, I still like ACU in this game. Wildcat quarterback Mitchell Gale is playing very well right now and ACU has a lot of experience in big games like this. Abilene Christian 35 Midwestern State 31.

Mailbag

[Q] Is Grand Valley completely out of the playoff race?

Jason

[A] First off, the Lakers have to win the rest of their games and three of them-- Ferris State, Saginaw Valley and Michigan Tech-- will be extremely difficult games. The Lakers have all three of those games at home and will be favored in each, but it's definitely not a given that GVSU will win out.

If GVSU does win out and finish 8-3, I think it's still unlikely that the Lakers get into the playoffs and this is my reasoning: Nebraska-Kearney and Colorado State-Pueblo from the RMAC both have an excellent chance of making the playoffs. UNK is 6-1 while CSU-Pueblo is 7-0 and both will be heavily favored in their remaining games. Both also have a quality out of conference win that will help with strength of schedule. So that's probably two of the six spots from the RMAC.

The NSIC has three one loss teams and three two loss teams right now. The likelihood that the NSIC gets at least two playoff spots is high.

So, that probably leaves just a couple of spots for the GLIAC this year. The Lakers can gain the upper hand on FSU, SVSU and MTU by beating them, but would also probably need Wayne State, Ashland, Indianapolis and Hillsdale to lose a couple of games each.

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