October 23rd, 2012 12:00am
When Pittsburg State took the second half kickoff and marched 87 yards for a touchdown two weeks ago against Northwest Missouri State, it appeared as if the defending national champions were in complete control. They led NWMSU 14-0 at the time and were looking like a team capable of making another run at another title.
But in less than six quarters of football, the 2012 season has completely unraveled on Pittsburg State. Since taking that 14-0 lead against NWMSU, the Gorillas have been outscored by an astounding 94-21 margin, including last weeks embarrassing 63-14 home loss to Missouri Western. The Gorillas have tumbled from the top spot to number 20 in our poll and does not appear at all in the first set of regional rankings that were released this week.
With so many teams with good records in Super Region Three, it will take a small miracle at this point for PSU to even get a shot at redemption in the playoffs. Even if they can right the ship and win their last three games, it appears likely that the defending national champion with three returning All-Americans will be watching from home come mid-November.
The plight of Pittsburg State adds to-- as I explained last week-- the strangeness and unpredictability of the 2012 season. It is a year where Emporia State is not only having its first winning season in a decade, but is also unbeaten at 8-0. On the other hand, two playoff teams from last year-- Nebraska-Kearney and North Greenville-- are a combined 3-15. It has been such a strange year that I tell you I am completely certain that the top teams in the GAC are better than the top teams in the GSC. I am also thinking that the Super Region One playoff field is going to be stronger-- perhaps much stronger-- than the field that comes from Super Region Two.
Enjoy the ride folks. I have a feeling that we are in for a wild and unpredictable finish to the 2012 season.
Thoughts from Last Week
-The 45-41 win by New Haven over Stonehill last Thursday was not only a great game, but also a showcase for how much the Northeast 10 has improved in recent years. The line play is much better on both sides of the ball and the skill players more talented as well. It was not that long ago that a Northeast 10 game more closely resembled Division III football than Division II. I am not sure that is the case anymore.
-Azusa Pacific (1-7) picked up its first win of the season with a shocking 24-17 win over Central Washington (5-3). CWU had beaten APU 41-17 earlier this season and the Wildcats have now lost two of three in the GNAC after getting off to a 4-0 start. It will be Humboldt States chance for revenge against the Wildcats this week as they will try to atone for a 31-3 home loss earlier this year.
-Grand Valley State (6-2) kept its playoff hopes alive with a 42-28 win over Northwood. The problem the Lakers now face is that their last three opponents are Hillsdale, Wayne State and Saginaw Valley State. GVSU will not be a favorite to win in any of those three games.
-Emporia State enters its big match up this week with Missouri Western with a perfect 8-0 record. The first eight Hornet opponents this season are a combined 17-45 while their last three (MWSU, Northwest Missouri and Washburn) are a combined 21-3. It will be very interesting to see how ESU fares over these last three weeks.
-The first set of regional rankings was released this week. As I have mentioned in past years, it is tough to read too much into them until we get closer to the end of the season. One way to approximate how a team might finish (assuming of course that they continue to win) is to look at the records of teams they have yet to play. If the cumulative record of those teams is good, you can generally expect a team to increase its strength of schedule and trend upward in the rankings. If the cumulative record is bad, chances are that they could slip in the rankings unless several other ranked teams lose.
-The long awaited backyard brawl between Augustana and the University of Sioux Falls did not disappoint as USF prevailed 32-31 in double overtime. With these two schools just two blocks apart, expect this to be quite the rivalry in the future.
-It is hard to believe that a team with Mitchell Gale at quarterback would rank 119th in the country in total offense, but that is exactly where Abilene Christian (4-4) sits at this point in the season. The Wildcats have been unable to run the football to take the pressure off Gale and they are having their worst season since going 4-7 in 2005.
Top Games this Week
Missouri Western (7-1) at Emporia State (8-0)
As I mentioned earlier, ESU comes into the game relatively untested. On the other hand, MWSU is coming off one of its biggest wins in school history, the 63-14 blasting of Pittsburg State last week. To me, the key is whether or not the Hornets can contain Michael Hill and the powerful Griffon running game. If they can it will give Tyler Eckenrode and the Hornet offense a chance to put some points on the board. This should be a fantastic game. Missouri Western 31 Emporia State 27
Findlay (5-2) at Ashland (8-0)
With Ashlands last two opponents a combined 1-15, the Oilers are likely the only thing standing between the Eagles and an unbeaten regular season. Both teams have been impressive offensively, but the Ashland defense (ranked 10th in the country in total D) is much stronger than Findlays. Ashland 30 Findlay 17.
Michigan Tech (5-2) at Saginaw Valley (6-2)
Both teams are coming off a loss and both are now in survival mode as far as the playoffs go. Both also prefer to throw the football with standout quarterbacks Jon Jennings (SVSU) and Tyler Scarlett (MTU) leading the way. This is a pick em type game. Saginaw Valley 27 Michigan Tech 26.
Bloomsburg (8-0) at Shippensburg (8-0)
This is the game of the year in the PSAC East between two of the top offenses in the country as the Red Raiders are first and Bloomsburg fourth in total offense. The difference I think is that Shippensburg plays a bit better defense and has been better in the turnover department. Expect BU to use its running game to try to play keep away from the Red Raider offense. Shippensburg 38 Bloomsburg 34.
Lenoir-Rhyne (5-2) at Wingate (5-3)
LRC has really come on of late and is playing like the team that was the preseason conference favorite in the SAC. The Bears lead the nation in rushing with their option offense and are solid defensively as well. Wingate has the talent to stay in this game, but turnovers have been a big problem this year. Lenoir-Rhyne 27 Wingate 21.
Urbana (6-2) at Missouri S&T (7-1)
While neither team is likely to catch Indianapolis in the GLVC race or make the playoffs, this is still an important game between two teams that are looking to break through and become respectable football programs. I think quarterback Josh Firm and the Miner offense will control this game. Missouri S&T 31 Urbana 23.
Northwest Missouri State (7-1) at Washburn (7-1)
The Bearcats have really come on in the last month while Washburn has racked up seven wins against the softer part of its schedule. While I think NWMSU is more talented, the Ichabods have given the Bearcats as much trouble as anyone in the MIAA over the last several years. For WU to have a real good chance to win, sophomore quarterback Mitch Buhler (15 TD pass, just three interceptions) will have to continue his efficient ways. Northwest Missouri State 28 Washburn 20
Grand Valley State (6-2) at Hillsdale (6-2)
As I mentioned earlier, the Lakers are still alive for the postseason. But Hillsdale is the best team they have faced all year and the Chargers are so far superior defensively that it will be tough for GVSU to stay in this game. Hillsdale 31 Grand Valley State 21.
Henderson State (8-0) at Southern Arkansas (7-1)
Both of these teams like to throw the football and play very solid defense. The problem that SAU will be facing is that it may be difficult for them to keep pace on the scoreboard due to the explosiveness of the HSU offense (tops in the nation at nearly 56 points per game. If the Muleriders are to keep it close, they will have to get pressure on HSU quarterback Kevin Rodgers and force some timely turnovers. Easier said that done. Henderson State 40 Southern Arkansas 28
Mailbag
[Q] I know you said last week that you feel the national championship race is wide open but if you had to pick a favorite today who would it be?
Troy
[A] I think I would go with Northwest Missouri State. The Bearcats have really turned the corner over the last month and are playing very good football right now. They are strong defensively; allowing just 305 yards per game (remember my column from a few weeks ago on this topic?). Offensively, they struggled early in the year but have come on strong of late and are finding ways to get their playmakers (James Franklin, Tyler Shaw, Jordan Simmons) the ball in spots where they can do damage.
That said; Northwest has a very tough final three regular season games starting this weekend at Washburn. It is not out of the realm of possibility that the Bearcats could stub their toe and miss the playoffs all together. But I really do feel that this is a team that is coming on strong at the right time of the year. I do not feel this Bearcat team is nearly as strong as the 2009 national championship version, but as I have mentioned before, they may not need to be.
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