November 6th, 2012 12:00am
The last week of the regular season is upon us. It also happens to be my favorite football weekend of the year. There are playoff berths and conference championships on the line Saturday followed by the excitement and drama of Selection Sunday. It does not get much better than that.
For the 24 teams that reach the playoffs, the excitement will be just beginning as those teams start working towards winning a national championship. But for the vast majority of D2 teams, the season ends this week. By my rough estimate, that means end of a football career for about 2,000 seniors in D2.
That is 2,000 young men that have likely spent the majority of their lives playing football and most will never put on pads again after this weekend. Most were probably high school stars that at one point had dreams of playing college football at Ohio State or Alabama. When those dreams do not materialize they were probably part of a 35 or 40 man recruiting class, accepting partial scholarship money to play at a D2 school. They have endured four or five years of bumps and bruises, hours in the weight room, meetings, practices, long bus ridesā�¦ all to play the game for little scholarship money, recognition or fanfare.
To me, these seniors are a very special group of people. Football is a hard game sometimes and it takes a tremendous amount of character to hang in there for four years when the end result is not going to be an NFL career. There is a reason that of those that sign that initial letter of intent, so few actually make it to their senior year.
This weekend there are just three games featuring teams that are currently in the top six of a region. But there are still several important games between a team that is trying to secure a spot in the playoffs against a team that has had a good season but will be turning in the pads next week.
For example it will be a chance for Slippery Rock (6-4) to put a dent in Bloomsburgs playoff chances. SRU lost a heart-breaker to Kutztown in the PSAC championship game last year and missed the playoffs all together after starting the season 8-0. This is an opportunity for the SRU seniors to go out in style this season after a painful end in 2011.
Northern State (6-4 and winners of six of their last seven) has a senior class that has only experienced blowout losses at the hands of Minnesota-Duluth. This Saturday will be their Super Bowl as they try to knock off the Bulldogs and claim a share of the NSIC North title.
Oauchita Baptist (6-3) will be forced to watch their across the street (literally) rivals Henderson State (9-0) in the playoffs. For OBU, this is their chance to end HSUs unbeaten run and claim bragging rights for a year. I am betting that it will not be difficult for the Tigers to find motivation to play on Saturday.
And how about this for motivation: for the 13 seniors on the Lock Haven football team, this Saturdays game against Cheyney (1-9) will be their last opportunity to experience victory, not just this season but in their entire college football careers! The Bald Eagles are currently suffering through a 52-game losing streak, the longest in D2 history.
My point is that there is likely to be some great football played this Saturday because it is not just the playoff teams that have something to play for. So whether your team is shooting for a national championship or just trying to go out in style, get out to a game this weekend and cheer on those seniors that have invested so much in your program.
Thoughts from Last Week
-After seeing in person Minnesota State beat Sioux Falls last week, I came away most impressed with the Maverick defense. MSU junior defensive end Chris Schaudt is a great player and he has to be a nightmare for opposing offensive coordinators to game plan around. The thing I question about MSU is if they are explosive enough on offense to string together a bunch of wins in the playoffs.
-West Texas had a bad snap on a punt lead to the winning score for Midwestern State with just 55 seconds remaining in the game last week. The loss by WTAMU means that they can do no better than share the LSC title and even more importantly, they sit at just sixth in the region and there is a chance they will not even make the SR4 playoff field.
-In four weeks Pittsburg State has gone from the top ranked team in the country to out of the polls and out of the playoffs. The Gorillas lost 44-33 to a Lindenwood team last week that is in its first season as a full D2 member. While the loss looks bad for PSU, it has to be huge for a program like Lindenwood that is trying to make its mark in this division.
Breaking down Playoff Possibilities
Super Region 1
| Team | D2 | Overall | |
| 1. | Shippensburg | 10-0 | 10-0 |
| 2. | Winston-Salem | 10-0 | 10-0 |
| 3. | New Haven | 9-0 | 9-0 |
| 4. | Bloomsburg | 9-1 | 9-1 |
| 5. | IUP | 9-1 | 9-1 |
| 6. | Shepherd | 7-2 | 7-2 |
| 7. | Charleston | 8-2 | 8-2 |
| 8. | American Int. | 7-2 | 7-2 |
| 9. | Mercyhurst | 8-2 | 8-2 |
| 10. | California | 7-3 | 7-3 |
New Haven has completed its regular season and will be in the playoffs. Shippensburg and Winston-Salem State will also both be in the playoffs even if they happen to lose in their conference championship game.
My opinion is that Bloomsburg will be in win or lose this weekend (they play at 6-4 Slippery Rock) based on having a solid strength of schedule. Shepherd should beat Fairmont State and reach the playoffs as the lone representative from the WVIAC.
After that it could get more interesting. If IUP can beat Shippensburg in the PSAC, then the field should be set. But if IUP loses, I am not really sure what will happen as I think it is at least a possibility that Charleston or American International could nudge them out for the six spots.
My prediction for how this region shakes out on Sunday:
1. Shippensburg
2. Winston-Salem State
3. New Haven
4. Bloomsburg
5. Shepherd
6. Indiana
Super Region Two
| Team | D2 | Overall | |
| 1. | Valdosta State | 7-2 | 7-2 |
| 2. | Miles | 8-2 | 8-2 |
| 3. | Mars Hill | 6-1 | 6-3 |
| 4. | Carson-Newman | 7-2 | 7-2 |
| 5. | Fort Valley | 7-2 | 8-2 |
| 6. | Lenoir-Rhyne | 6-2 | 7-2 |
| 7. | West Alabama | 5-2 | 7-3 |
| 8. | UNC Pembroke | 5-3 | 6-3 |
| 9. | Albany State | 6-4 | 6-4 |
| 10. | North Alabama | 4-4 | 5-4 |
Valdosta State and Miles have finished playing and will be in the playoffs. The only question will be if they can retain the top two seeds. I have to believe there is at least a chance that any of the next three teams in the rankings could move up with a win as they all play strong opponents.
Carson-Newman and Mars Hill play each other and it is safe to assume that the winner will be in. I also think it is highly likely that Lenoir-Rhyne beats Catawba and that should get the Bears in the playoffs.
After that I feel it is going to be wide open. Fort Valley State can guarantee a spot with a win in the SIAC championship game, but I feel the Wildcats are underdogs against Tuskegee. West Alabama, UNC-Pembroke and the loser of the Carson-Newman versus Mars Hill game will all be factors as well for the last spot or two. It will be interesting to see what happens.
My prediction for Sunday:
1. Valdosta State
2. Carson-Newman
3. Miles
4. Lenoir-Rhyne
5. West Alabama
6. Fort Valley State
Super Region Three
| Team | D2 | Overall | |
| 1. | Minnesota State | 10-0 | 10-0 |
| 2. | Henderson State | 9-0 | 9-0 |
| 3. | Northwest Missouri | 9-1 | 9-1 |
| 4. | Harding | 8-1 | 8-1 |
| 5. | Missouri Western | 9-1 | 9-1 |
| 6. | Minnesota Duluth | 9-1 | 9-1 |
| 7. | Winona State | 8-2 | 8-2 |
| 8. | Emporia State | 8-2 | 8-2 |
| 9. | Sioux Falls | 8-2 | 8-2 |
| 10. | Southern Arkansas | 6-2 | 7-2 |
I really feel the most likely scenario is that the top six teams in this region will all make the playoffs, although some shuffling could take place based on who wins or loses on Saturday.
Minnesota State, Henderson State and the winner of the Northwest Missouri State/ Missouri Western game will all be in the field for sure. I also feel the NWMSU/MWSU loser will make it and Harding should easily win its game. Minnesota-Duluth is also favored but will be playing a red hot Northern State team that has the potential to give the Bulldogs a game. A UMD loss could possible open the door for one of the other two-loss teams currently sitting at 7-10 in the region.
One other thing to watch for in this region: I think there is some potential that the winner of the NWMSU-MWSU game could jump and unbeaten Henderson State to the second seed and a first round bye.
My prediction for Sunday:
1. Minnesota State
2. Henderson State
3. Northwest Missouri State
4. Harding
5. Minnesota-Duluth
6. Missouri Western
Super Region Four
| Team | D2 | Overall | |
| 1. | CSU-Pueblo | 10-0 | 10-0 |
| 2. | Ashland | 10-0 | 10-0 |
| 3. | Chadron State | 8-1 | 8-2 |
| 4. | Midwestern State | 8-1 | 8-1 |
| 5. | Indianapolis | 8-1 | 8-2 |
| 6. | West Texas A&M | 8-2 | 8-2 |
| 7. | Missouri S&T | 9-1 | 9-1 |
| 8. | Grand Valley | 8-2 | 8-2 |
| 9. | New Mexico Highlands | 7-2 | 7-2 |
| 10. | Saginaw Valley | 7-3 | 7-3 |
CSU-Pueblo and Ashland should both win big this weekend and be the top two seeds with a bye in the playoffs. I also think it is highly unlikely that Indianapolis or Midwestern State will lose so I expect those two teams to be in the field as well.
As I mentioned at the start of the column, there are several solid teams that have potential to ruin the playoffs for someone else this weekend. Chadron State is another team playing one of those dangerous opponents in Colorado Mines. CSC is certainly favored but this game is no gimme for the Eagles. If Chadron State loses it would certainly put them on the bubble for making the playoff field.
If everything goes as planned (i.e. all favored teams win) it could be a very interesting scenario for the final playoff spot. West Texas A&M will win this weekend, but Grand Valley has an opportunity to really gain in strength of schedule if the Lakers can defeat Saginaw Valley State. Could GVSU leap all the way from eighth to sixth even if every team ahead of them wins? I think there is a chance that it could happen.
Missouri S&T will also win this weekend to finish the season 10-1 but I really think the Miners would need at least a couple of upsets to occur (like GVSU and CSC losing) to have a shot to get in. S&T has a poor strength of schedule and their game this weekend against a South Dakota Mines team that is winless against D2 competition is not going to help.
My prediction for Sunday:
1. CSU-Pueblo
2. Ashland
3. Chadron State
4. Midwestern State
5. Indianapolis
6. West Texas A&M
Top Games this Week
American International (7-2) at New Haven (9-0)
Northeast 10 Championship Game
This conference has gone with a new format this season where the top two teams in the standings play a conference championship game. The problem is that these two teams played last week with UNH winning 37-6, so this game seems a bit anticlimactic. I expect it to be a bit closer, but I see no reason to believe that AIC can win this game.
New Haven 38 American International 20
Shippensburg (10-0) at IUP (9-1)
PSAC Championship Game
What a match up this game is. The Red Raiders lead the country in total offense at 567 yards per game while IUP leads the country in total defense, allowing just 240 per game. I am sure IUP will try to use its ground game to keep the Shippensburg offense on the sidelines as much as possible, but I have a gut feeling that Zach Zulli (49 TD passes already this year) will find a way to win this game.
Shippensburg 35 Indiana 28
Fort Valley State (8-2) versus Tuskegee (8-1)
SIAC Championship Game
Tuskegee buried FVSU 49-18 back in September with four interceptions thrown by Wildcat quarterback Antonio Henton being a major factor. Henton has done a much better job of taking care of the football since then, and for that reason I think this will be a closer game.
Tuskegee 27 Fort Valley State 20
Winston-Salem State (10-0) versus Elizabeth City State (7-3)
CIAA Championship Game
Both of these teams are good defensively but the difference between them is that WSSU is prolific offensively led by senior quarterback Kameron Smith, who has thrown 37 touchdown passes already this season.
Winston-Salem State 38 Elizabeth City State 17
Mars Hill (6-3) at Carson-Newman (7-2)
MHC is 6-1 in the SAC and in addition to obvious playoff implications; the Mountain Lions are also playing for a likely share of the league title with Lenoir-Rhyne. The problem is that that MHC has been shaky at best over the last month and needed overtime to beat 2-8 Tusculum at home in their last game. C-N has won five straight and I expect the Eagles to continue that this week.
Carson-Newman 38 Mars Hill 27
Grand Valley (8-2) at Saginaw Valley (7-3)
The Lakers have won three straight and are playing their best football of the season, while the Cardinals have been headed in the opposite direction, losing two of their last three. That said, GVSU is still shaky defensively and the Jon Jennings and the SVSU offense are capable of scoring points. This will be a good game.
Grand Valley 30 Saginaw Valley 27
Missouri Western (9-1) at Northwest Missouri (9-1)
This is the game of the year in the MIAA as the winner will be the outright league champion. These two teams are playing so well that I will go as far as to say I think the winner of this game also has an excellent shot of being our 2012 national champion. The Griffons have an almost unstoppable power running game, but the Bearcats are slightly better defensively and have many playmakers on offense.
Northwest Missouri 31 Missouri Western 30.
Mailbag
[Q] I get your point you made in last weeks column about the watering down of D2. But if D2 is not watered down, how do you explain the rise of programs like Minnesota-Duluth, St. Cloud State and Minnesota State recently? Those teams were always near the bottom of the old NCC and are now in the playoffs every year?
Ryan
[A] I would concede your point if it was not for the fact that Minnesota-Duluth has won a pair of national championships. I cannot see how anyone could argue that UMD teams that went 15-0 twice in three years would not have been winning NCC championships had the conference still existed. I do however agree that UMD, SCSU and MSU have benefited from being the "big dogs" in the NSIC, but all three of these programs had also experienced success at times in the NCC.
Contact Me
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