November 11th, 2014 12:00am
The Rocky Mountain Athletic Conference announced on Tuesday that Dixie State will be joining the league for football in 2016.
I know you’re probably thinking, “Bob, why are you writing about schools switching conferences in two years when you should be writing about the playoffs!?!?”
This is why: included in the RMAC release about Dixie State was a statement that the addition of DSU will allow the RMAC to go to conference-only scheduling in 2016. If you have been following what is going on with the playoff situation this year in Super Region Three, you would know that there is a high likelihood that two or three one-loss teams are going to be left out of the playoffs in that region this year. A major reason this is happening in SR3 is that the three largest conferences in that region- the MIAA, NSIC and GAC- all follow the conference-only scheduling model that the RMAC is about to implement.
There is no interaction amongst the conferences in SR3 during the regular season, which in turn means that there are no game results between the leagues to determine who is more deserving when teams have similar records. The strength of schedules for these teams is in most cases identical. It would probably be easier for the selection committee in that region to just throw darts to pick teams than try to compare selection criteria that is largely worthless when the teams in each league only play each other.
The entire concept of conference-only scheduling originated with the MIAA, but that conference was delayed in implementing the policy until this year because they were left with an odd number of teams when Nebraska-Omaha dropped football. The NSIC was actually the first league to implement the policy back in 2011, but they largely did so in reaction to the MIAA’s future intent. The NSIC relied heavily on the MIAA to schedule non-conference games and would have a difficult time doing so if they couldn’t play MIAA teams.
The MIAA is the glue that holds D2 football together. It is the most competitive league in the country as evidenced by the fact that it has had a participant in the national championship game eight of the past ten years. It is also valuable to the division from a geographic standpoint because it is surrounded by the NSIC to the north, the GLVC to the east, the GAC and LSC to the south and the RMAC to the west. There is no reason for the MIAA to pull the plug on non-conference games, especially when the league benefits immensely from a strength of schedule standpoint by playing them.
This scheduling “cancer” which started in the MIAA has now spread to four conferences. Beyond the playoff selection difficulties, what makes this such a huge problem for the division is that these conferences are in the middle of the country which could further force other leagues to adopt similar scheduling practices.
Unfortunately for some other leagues, the cancer might force them out of the football business all together. How is a small conference like the GNAC going to survive out on the west coast when they would have to travel two thirds of the way across the country to find games? Same goes for the LSC, which has already resorted to the two week conference playoff just to fill schedules.
In a nutshell, the shortsightedness and selfishness of a few leagues is negatively effecting the entire division. That’s why going forward I won’t have much sympathy for a deserving team from the NSIC, MIAA, GAC or RMAC that gets left out of the playoffs. You reap what you sow.
Observations from Around the Country
-Usually the Grand Valley versus Saginaw Valley game is the top match up in the GLIAC. But the 5-5 Lakers are having their worst season since 1984 while the 2-8 Cardinals are having their worst since 1982. It’s not very often that these two teams are just playing for pride at this time, but this would be one of those years.
-Midwestern State had the top scoring defense in the LSC this year- and the Mustangs gave up nearly 27 points per game. There have been some explosive offenses in the past in this league, but this year things have closely resembled arena football. Of the two teams playing for the championship this week, Texas A&M- Commerce averages nearly 55 points per game and has eclipsed 90 twice. Angelo State has score 40 or more in both losses this season.
-The University of Mary only attempted three runs by a running back in their 53-35 loss to Minnesota-Duluth. The strategy kept the Marauders within striking distance as quarterback Zach Roberson was 31-56 passing for 408 yards and four touchdowns. The Bulldogs have had some injuries and have had trouble stopping offenses that can really throw the football.
-Humboldt State has had a huge turnaround going from 0-11 last year to 7-2 this year. But to me the most impressive turnaround has been at Central Oklahoma. The Bronchos beat Lindenwood 45-13 last week to win their 8th game of the season, which is the same amount of wins as their previous four seasons combined. UCO isn’t going to make the playoffs, but they could cap their season in style if they can knock off 9-1 Pittsburg State on Saturday.
-Of the top 41 teams in the country in total defense, only three have records below .500. Five of the top twelve teams in the country in total offense are below .500. It’s pretty obvious that the old adage that defense wins championships still holds true.
Playoff Prognostications
(Note: to be able to follow along and see the current regional rankings, please see this link:
Super Region One
I really believe the two unbeaten teams in this region- Bloomsburg and Concord- will be locks to reach the playoffs. My reasoning for this is that there are only six teams in this region with one loss or less. I can’t see a one loss team falling out of the playoff field in this region.
So that leaves four spots remaining. If West Chester, Winston-Salem State, American International and Shepherd all win, then there is your playoff field. But all four of those teams have tough games so I’m not expecting that to happen.
I also want to focus on American International who plays LIU Post in the Northeast 10 championship game. Remember, to get a team into the field, all the Northeast 10 has to do is have someone finish in the Top 8 which would qualify the conference for earned access. LIU Post, with three D2 losses, is out of it. But could AIC still stay in the top eight with a loss on Saturday? My guess is that they would because the current 6th, 7th and 8th ranked teams in the region all play games that they aren’t necessarily favored in.
Prediction
1. Bloomsburg
2. West Chester
3. Winston-Salem State
4. Shepherd
5. Concord
6. American International
Super Region Two
Lenoir-Rhyne should beat Catawba on Saturday, but even if they don’t, the Bears are a lock to make the playoffs for a third consecutive season. Delta State will name its score against overmatched Mississippi College on Saturday and is in as well. I also feel that North Alabama is basically a lock to make the field and this is why: even if the Lions were to lose to West Alabama, they own the head to head advantage over both Valdosta State and West Georgia so I can’t see UNA falling behind those two teams.
Third seeded Tuskegee and seventh seeded Albany State play in the SIAC championship game. Obviously, Tuskegee would be in the field with a win. But what happens if ASU wins? I think there is a good chance that both teams would make it based on the fact that both have quality non-conference losses which would raise strength of schedule. Translation: West Georgia not only needs to beat Shorter on Saturday, but the Wolves also need to be huge Tuskegee fans. I feel that an Albany State win may bounce UWG out of the top six.
The only other team from the top six I haven’t mentioned is Valdosta State. The Blazers are in for sure with a win over Florida Tech. There is a good chance they would still make it with a loss because they have the head to head advantage on both Albany State and West Georgia.
One other thing to watch for in this region: I think there is a possibility that Tuskegee would overtake Delta State for the 2nd seed if the Golden Tigers win on Saturday.
Prediction
1. Lenoir-Rhyne
2. Tuskegee
3. Delta State
4. North Alabama
5. Valdosta State
6. West Georgia
Super Region Three
With three unbeaten and six one-loss teams right now, there are going to be some disappointed folks in this region on Sunday.
I feel that Minnesota State, Minnesota-Duluth and Northwest Missouri State are basically locks to make the playoffs based on their current situation and the fact that all three are heavy favorites to win their games on Saturday.
That really leaves three spots for the remaining six one-loss teams. Pittsburg State will claim one of those spots with a win over Central Oklahoma on Saturday. UCO is a quality team, so a PSU win isn’t a foregone conclusion.
Azusa Pacific is the lone team in the GNAC, but the conference doesn’t qualify for earned access so the Cougars would have to make it into the top six in the region to qualify for the playoffs. Since APU plays an NAIA team this week, there won’t be much benefit there. The Cougars will need to hope for a couple of upsets.
The remaining possibilities are the University of Sioux Falls and the three GAC teams- Henderson State, Ouachita Baptist and Harding. OBU and HSU play this week. An OBU win would obviously get them in, leaving the final spot a tossup between Harding and HSU. But an HSU win would make things very interesting. In that scenario HSU, OBU and Harding would all likely have one loss and beat each other. My guess is that HSU would be first in the pecking order because they have a win over FCS Nichols State as a tiebreaker. How it would then work out between OBU, Harding and USF for the final spot is anyone’s guess. My gut tells me we will end up with two teams each from the NSIC, MIAA and GAC.
Prediction
1. Minnesota State
2. Minnesota-Duluth
3. Pittsburg State
4. Northwest Missouri State
5. Henderson State
6. Harding
Super Region Four
Ferris State will be in the playoffs and will be the top seed with another win this week. Texas A&M-Commerce and Angelo State play in the LSC Championship game and the winner will be in, even if it’s by earned access. Indianapolis of the GLVC will also be in as they will stay in the top eight in the region.
That leaves three spots between four teams: CSU-Pueblo, Michigan Tech, Ohio Dominican and Colorado Mines. If all four teams win on Saturday, I think they stay in the same order, which means that Mines would be forced out due to earned access. Obviously if one loses, the other three should be in, etc. It would take two of the four teams losing on Saturday for a two-loss team to enter into the discussion.
Prediction
1. Ferris State
2. CSU-Pueblo
3. Michigan Tech
4. Ohio Dominican
5. Indianapolis
6. Texas A&M-Commerce
Top Games this Week
CIAA Championship
Virginia State (8-2) vs Winston-Salem State (9-1)
What a game this should be. There are the obvious playoff implications and then you can add the fact that the league championship game that was scheduled between these two teams last year was cancelled when a VSU player assaulted WSSU quarterback Rudy Johnson in the bathroom at the banquet prior to the game. VSU is a solid team, but WSSU is a little more dynamic offensively and defensively. Winston-Salem State 27 Virginia State 19
Northeast-10 Championship
LIU Post (7-3) at American International (8-2)
AIC won 27-24 on a last second touchdown when these two teams played in late October. LIU Post has the top offense in the league and tends to get in shootouts while AIC has the top defense in the league and plays closer to the vest. I expect a very tight contest between these two teams but I will give the defending conference champion Yellow Jackets the benefit of the doubt. American International 28 LIU Post 23
PSAC Championship
Bloomsburg (10-0) at Slippery Rock (8-2)
This is a rematch of last year’s PSAC title game. Harlon Hill Trophy winner Franklyn Quiteh’s touchdown run with 27 seconds left gave BU a dramatic 42-38 win over SRU. The Huskies went on to the playoffs while the loss knocked SRU out. Adding further to the intrigue in this game is the fact that BU has won nine straight in the series between these teams. Although BU has to be favored, I think SRU will be right in this game because their strength defensively is stopping the run, which is what the Huskies want to do offensively. Bloomsburg 31 Slippery Rock 24
SIAC Championship
Albany State (7-2) vs Tuskegee (8-2)
Tuskegee used a big 3rd quarter to knock off ASU 20-12 back in September. However, ASU had a slight statistical advantage in that game and limited the Golden Tigers to just 55 rushing yards on 36 carries. I expect another low scoring slugfest this week. Tuskegee 17 Albany State 14
LSC Championship
Angelo State (7-2) at Texas A&M-Commerce (8-2)
TAMUC won 41-40 when these two teams played in mid-October and I see nothing that would lead me to believe that we shouldn’t expect another close, high scoring game. ASU is a little more balanced offensively, but the Commerce passing game is so explosive. First team to 50 wins? Texas A&M Commerce 52 Angelo State 48
Concord (10-0) at Shepherd (8-1)
What a contrast in styles. Concord is one of the top offensive teams in the country, averaging 514 yards and nearly 47 points per game. Shepherd has one of the stingiest defenses as the Rams allow just 41 yards per game on the ground and have given up just one rushing touchdown all season. I think the Shepherd ground game will control the ball just enough to take scoring opportunities away from the Mountain Lions. Shepherd 28 Concord 26
Ouachita Baptist (9-0) at Henderson State (9-1)
This is the 88th “Battle of the Ravine” pairing these two schools that are literally across the street from each other. This week’s game may be the biggest of them all with the playoffs hanging in the balance. Even though HSU has the one loss, they have been the stronger team this year on both sides of the ball. Plus, I just can’t imagine HSU star quarterback Kevin Rodgers losing in his final home game. Henderson State 35 Ouachita Baptist 30
Pittsburg State (9-1) at Central Oklahoma (8-2)
As I mentioned earlier, the Bronchos have completely turned it around this season. On paper, UCO matches up well defensively as they seem to fare better against teams that want to throw the football like PSU does. The question will be whether UCO can score enough points against a very good Gorilla defense. I don’t think they can. Pittsburg State 27 Central Oklahoma 17
Mailbag
[Q] Concerning D2 football, what possible implications do you see for D2 in general (if any) from the forthcoming changes in FBS football; i.e. the five biggest conferences going their own way?
Mark
[A] I honestly don’t think there will be a huge impact on D2. The reason I feel this way is that the separation created by the Power Five conferences in D-I is going to make it even more difficult on the rest of that division to compete and in turn will make it even more difficult than it already is financially at the lower D-I schools.
If you are following what is going on with the new playoff ranking system in D-I, they are heavily rewarding the schools that have the best out of conference schedules. Many FCS programs rely on guarantee games with FBS programs to sustain themselves financially and those are going to be more difficult to secure with many power conferences (such as the Big 10) now mandating that their schools no longer schedule FCS teams.
The FCS level is less sustainable fiscally than any other division of college football and it will only get more difficult as time goes on, in my opinion. Add in the fact that a D2 school has to pay a huge application fee and has to have a conference invite before moving to D-I and I just don’t see there being a lot of movement in the future.
Contact
Feel free to contact me with any comments or criticisms or if you have a question you'd like answered in the Mailbag.