December 2nd, 2014 12:00am
Currently there are 53 different D2 programs that have players in the NFL. Minnesota-Duluth is not one of those programs. Yet since the start of the 2008 season, UMD has the best record in all of D2 at 86-7 and they have won a couple of national championships. Translation: Minnesota-Duluth doesn't always have the best talent, but they find ways to win.
Ouachita Baptist has to be the latest team to play Minnesota-Duluth and leave asking themselves, "How did we lose that game?" Despite moving the ball almost at will at times and seemingly having the game put away twice in the last few minutes, OBU lost to the Bulldogs 48-45 in overtime last Saturday. If you remember, UMD also rallied from 15 points down in the fourth quarter when they beat Northwest Missouri State the previous week.
"How did we lose to Duluth?" has been a common question I have heard over the last few years. Grand Valley State fans were adamant that their team was easily better and just had an off day when they lost in double overtime to the Bulldogs in the 2008 playoffs. I have heard it from Northwest Missouri State supporters after each of their three playoff losses to the Bulldogs.
When Delta State went for it on 4th-and-goal on two different occasions in the 2010 national championship game against UMD, the rumor around the stadium after the game was that the Statesmen did so because they wanted to put away the Bulldogs early. Apparently DSU didn't have a lot of respect for UMD based on what they had seen on film. The Bulldogs won that game on a last-second field goal. Many CSU-Pueblo fans were adamant that they had the better team when they lost to UMD in the 2011 playoffs. With last Saturday's win, UMD is now 14-4 in the playoffs over the last six-plus seasons.
So how do the Bulldogs do it? It's a combination of things: They are committed to running the football and everyone on the UMD offense buys into that philosophy. If you ever get a chance to see these guys play, watch the receivers block on the perimeter and you will see what I mean by everyone buying in. They recruit long, athletic linemen that can block in space and smart, dual threat quarterbacks. They don't turn the ball over: UMD is +14 in turnover differential in those 18 playoffs games with no turnovers in two games this year. They don't commit dumb penalties: in those 18 playoff games UMD averages less than 40 yards in penalties per game. They might not always have the best athletes on defense, but they are always assignment sharp and force opponents to keep executing play after play. You must beat the Bulldogs as they will not beat themselves.
But I think the biggest reason UMD has been so successful is this: they seem to be immune from allowing negative game situations to affect how they play. How many times do you watch college football games on TV and you hear the commentators say how you can feel the momentum changing in a game? It will usually happen after a defensive stop or a turnover or a big hit. That just doesn't seem to happen to the Bulldogs- they just keep playing the game with 100% effort no matter the situation.
I know one thing: if I'm a D2 head coach and I'm looking for a blueprint on how to build a program, I would want to talk to former UMD head coach Bob Nielson or current head coach Curt Wiese and figure out how they have established such a successful culture. Obviously what they are doing at Minnesota-Duluth works.
Observations from Last Week
-Of the number one seeds in each of the respective regions, only Concord in SR1 made it to the regional final.
-Despite 691 yards of offense and 32 first downs, defending SR1 champ West Chester lost 51-36 to Concord. The Rams failed to score on four trips inside the red zone and also had a blocked field goal returned for a touchdown.
-Both home teams lost in SR2 and both have a lot to be kicking themselves over this offseason. Lenoir-Rhyne was undone by five turnovers despite out-gaining Valdosta State by 221 yards. This loss is going to sting for a while for the Bears. West Georgia's first three touchdown drives in the Wolves' 37-27 win were 33, 31 and 12 yards as the result of Delta State mistakes.
-I'm really surprised that the CSU-Pueblo defense was able to so thoroughly dominate a red-hot Angelo State offense. The Thunderwolves are looking like a team that can make it all the way to Kansas City.
-Minnesota State's 24-21 overtime win over Pittsburg State was everything it was billed to be: a heavyweight fight between two of D2's best programs. I think both teams could have played better at times offensively, but some of that has to be attributed to the opponent as well.
Super Region One Championship
Bloomsburg (11-1) at Concord (12-0)
As Concord showed last week in their win over West Chester, they have a very explosive offense. The Mountain Lions can make big plays in the passing game and they also have one of D2's top running backs in Calvinaugh Jones (1548 rushing yards, 10 touchdowns).
The problem is that the Mountain Lions will be facing a Bloomsburg team that runs the ball very effectively (229 yards per game on the ground) and is tops in the country in turnover margin (+30). As I mentioned earlier in the column in regard to Minnesota-Duluth, that can be a tough combination to beat. I think Concord can stay in the game as long as they limit the turnovers, but those have been a bit of a problem for CU at times this year as they have turned the ball over 21 times.
I do like Bloomsburg in this game, but I could see a scenario where Concord wins by jumping out to a big early lead and forcing BU to pass more than they want, similar to what happened to the Huskies in the PSAC championship game loss to Slippery Rock. Bloomsburg 30 Concord 23
Super Region Two Championship
West Georgia (11-2) at Valdosta State (10-2)
These two rivals met back in mid-October and the Blazers completely dominated, winning the game 40-6. At the time, these two teams were in completely different spots mentally. The Blazers had just lost two straight games, including to North Alabama on a 54-yard last-second field goal. With the two losses, VSU was looking at its season going down the tubes if they didn't start winning. They showed up and played with intensity and it showed. UWG was 5-0 at the time but hadn't played anyone of note. The Wolves were probably a little unsure of themselves as a program that was just learning how to win.
Since that game, UWG has learned how to compete and win. They have beaten GSC champion Delta State twice and also beat Tuskegee on the road in the playoffs. Will Hall has done a tremendous job in his first year as head coach at UWG and it is showing on the field.
Another factor that could make a big difference in this game is the health of VSU starting quarterback Jake Medlock, who left last week's game with an injury. Medlock ran for 145 yards the first time these two teams met and the Blazers lose the dual threat if they go with Kaleb Nobles at quarterback.
In case I haven't made it obvious where I am going with this, I expect a pretty good game on Saturday. Even if Medlock is unable to go, I still think VSU has a bit more talent and they also have one of D2's best kickers in Anthony Pistelli if it comes down to a late field goal. Valdosta State 28 West Georgia 19
Super Region Three Championship
Minnesota-Duluth (13-0) at Minnesota State (12-0)
Number one versus number two in the entire country. This isn't only a battle for the SR3 title but also the pseudo-NSIC championship (the two teams play in opposite divisions and didn't play each other this season). Bragging rights in the state of Minnesota and probably some headway on the recruiting trail are also on the line. To say this is a big game probably doesn't do it justice.
The unique part of analyzing this game is that these two teams have eight common opponents. MSU outscored those eight 364-101 while UMD outscored them 310-122. If you do the math, the Mavericks beat that same group of opponents by about 33 points while UMD won by about 23 points. This "feels" about right to me as my gut tells me that MSU is probably 7-10 points better.
However, there are two factors that I think will make this a very close game. One is that UMD plays with remarkable composure and just doesn't make the big mistakes that will kill you in this type of game. Secondly, MSU is a bit unsettled at the quarterback position as I understand that both Ricky Lloyd and Nick Pieruccini are a bit banged up. Both are talented and capable of getting the job done, but MSU is not as rock solid at the position as UMD is with Drew Bauer.
All that said, and as much as I have talked glowingly about UMD in this column, I like MSU in this game. With 21 seniors on the roster- among them four all-conference offensive linemen that have been playing regularly together for three years- this feels like the Mavericks' year. Minnesota State 24 Minnesota-Duluth 20
Super Region Four Championship
Ohio Dominican (11-1) at CSU-Pueblo (11-1)
These two teams are very similar. Both play solid defense and defend the run well. They are also very fundamentally sound teams that tackle well and can be effective both running and throwing the football. Both are led by standout senior quarterbacks- Mark Miller for ODU and Chris Bonner for CSU-Pueblo.
With teams that are so similar, I think that whoever can limit the turnovers and do a better job of stopping the run is going to be the team that wins this game. While I think that this will be a very tight game, I am going to go with CSU-Pueblo for a couple of different reasons. One, I think it's just time for the Thunderwolves to get it done in the playoffs. They have had several playoff disappointments over the last few seasons, but this is a veteran team that has learned from those mistakes and is determined to get over the hump. And secondly, the Thunderwolves have senior receiver Paul Browning back from a nagging knee injury and his presence makes the CSUP offense very tough to defend. Browning had eight catches for 152 yards and two touchdowns last week. CSU-Pueblo 27 Ohio Dominican 23
Bowl Games
Texarkana Live United Bowl
Southeastern Oklahoma State (7-4) vs Central Missouri (7-4)
SOSU struggles to stop the run and they will be facing one of D2's top running backs in UCM's LaVance Taylor. Not a good combo for the Savage Storm. Central Missouri 41 Southeastern Oklahoma State 20
Heart of Texas Bowl
East Central (6-4 vs Texas A&M-Commerce (8-3)
ECU has struggled toward the end of the season offensively and that's not a good way to go into this game as they try to match high-scoring TAMUC score for score. Texas A&M-Commerce 49 East Central 28
Mineral Water Bowl
Sioux Falls (10-1) vs Central Oklahoma (8-3)
USF played great football at the end of the regular season and the Cougars will be focused after the playoff snub. As long as they don't fall into the turnover trap (UCO is +16 on the season) the Cougars should win easily. Sioux Falls 45 Central Oklahoma 27
Mailbag
[Q] With both MIAA teams now out of the playoffs, do you expect attendance at the national championship game in Kansas City to be poor this year?
Tim
[A] It depends on what you consider poor. I don't believe that the game is going to get over 10,000 people with no MIAA team in it. But my understanding is that many tickets have been pre-sold (largely to Pittsburg State and Northwest Missouri fans that thought their team would be there). Whether or not all of those people now show up is debatable, but I think if the weather is good there is a chance for a decent showing just based on first year curiosity at the new stadium. If I had to guess we will see a crowd in the 8,000 range, which I feel would be acceptable. Looking at the brackets, the best chance for a well-attended game would probably be Minnesota State versus CSU-Pueblo. That match up certainly isn't out of the realm of possibility.
[Q] I noticed that Florida Tech's new program is off to a great start. They went 6-5 this year and played both North Alabama and Valdosta tough. Do you think they are a threat to make the playoffs next year?
Jeremy
[A] Yes, I do. There has been quite a phenomenon recently of new programs starting up and competing for the playoffs by their third or fourth year. CSU-Pueblo, UNC-Pembroke and New Haven would all be great examples of this. FTU is a little different in that they play in a tougher conference, but also filled with potential based on the fact that they are the only D2 program in a talent-rich state. Based on what happened this year, I think FTU can compete for the spot in the playoffs next year if they improve on defense. With only eight seniors on the roster, the prospects for next year look really good.
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