November 10th, 2015 12:00am
The final week of the regular season is already upon us, which of course means that the playoffs start a week from Saturday. I want to briefly break down how I see the playoff field working out in each region, but before I get into that I would like to point out the selection criteria because things have changed slightly from past years.
A computed strength of schedule, D2 winning percentage, head to head results and results against common opponents are all still part of the criteria. But in addition, this year D2 record on the road, results against teams with a record greater than .500 and in region non-conference record are also part of the criteria evaluated.
I could spend an entire column shooting holes in the criteria being used, but this is not the time and place. They are what they are at this point. The current regional rankings can be found here to help follow along.
Super Region One
Even with Bowie State, Sliipery Rock and Assumption all being involved in conference title games, I really do not see a way that the current makeup of this region changes if any of the top seven teams loses on Saturday. The one caveat to this is I*m not sure how much of an effect Bowie State*s nullification penalty will have on their spot in the polls. BSU will be penalized because they used an ineligible player the first four games this season.
What I do think could happen is that the order will get switched up. I think Slippery Rock could rise to the two or three spot with a win over West Chester in the PSAC title game. IUP could end up dropping a spot because they basically have a bye against 0-10 Cheyney, but I don*t see a way that the Crimson Hawks would fall out of the top seven. Prediction based on how I feel the games will go this weekend:
1. Shepherd
2. Slippery Rock
3. Bowie State
4. Charleston
5. IUP
6. Virginia Union
7. Assumption
Super Region Two
I think West Georgia, North Alabama, Tuskegee and the winner of the Florida Tech/ Valdosta State game will be in the playoffs for sure.
That leaves three spots remaining between the other six teams in the poll. Catawba and Carson-Newman will make it with victories on Saturday, but both teams have tough games. The rest of this region is very hard to predict because so many teams have tough games. Prediction based on how I feel the games will go:
1. West Georgia
2. North Alabama
3. Catawba
4. Valdosta State
5. Carson-Newman
6. Tuskegee
7. Florida Tech
Super Region Three
Central Missouri has won seven straight games and is playing some very good football, but I think the Mules are going to be the odd team out when it comes to the selection show on Sunday. Their SOS and some of the other criteria do not match up to the 2-loss NSIC teams, and they lost head-to-head against Emporia State.
I think the top four teams in this region are locks to make it while Augustana and Emporia State should have easy wins and will make it as well. The only hope for UCM might be a banged up Sioux Falls teams getting upset at Upper Iowa. Possible but not likely. Prediction for Sunday:
1. Northwest Missouri
2. Minnesota State
3. Humboldt State
4. Henderson State
5. Augustana
6. Sioux Falls
7. Emporia State
Super Region Four
This is another region where I think the current seven teams in the rankings will be the ones that reach the playoffs. The only other team with a slight chance is Colorado Mesa, but the chances for the Mavericks appear to be very slim.
I do think the top seed in this region could be interesting. Ferris State is seeded above Ashland on what appears to be a stronger strength of schedule. The Eagles are idle this weekend while FSU plays 2-7 Walsh. Will the hit to FSU*s SOS by playing Walsh be enough to drop the Bulldogs to the two seed? Prediction for Sunday:
1. Ferris State
2. Ashland
3. Texas A&M-Commerce
4. CSU-Pueblo
5. Midwestern State
6. Indianapolis
7. Grand Valley
News and Notes from around the Country
-Miles rallied from 17 points down to shock Tuskegee 26-23 and earn a spot in the SIAC championship game. Miles is just 6-4 but the Golden Bears played a grueling non-conference schedule that included West Georgia, North Alabama and West Alabama. The loss broke Tuskegee*s 18-game homecoming winning streak but the Golden Tigers (8-2) should still make the playoffs.
-Assumption (9-1) won its first Northeast 10 title this year, but I*m still trying to figure out how. The Greyhounds have been out-gained this season and have a negative turnover differential. However, they have been extremely opportunistic, scoring on 44 of 47 trips inside the opponents* red zone.
-Kutztown has been a major thorn in the side of IUP the last two seasons. KU*s 44-7 beat down of the Crimson Hawks in the second game of the 2014 season spearheaded a down season for IUP. In September KU rallied from 21 points down late in the third quarter to beat IUP 34-33. Then last Saturday, the Golden Bears knocked off Shippensburg 51-27 which gave West Chester a spot in the PSAC title game. How did this result hurt IUP? The Crimson Hawks were scheduled to play WCU but now must play 0-10 Cheyney, which will not help IUP from a playoff criteria standpoint.
-Judging by the two semifinal games maybe the LSC tournament is not such a bad idea? Top seeds Texas-A&M Commerce and Midwestern State both advanced, but not without a struggle. TAMUC had to rally from 18 points down to defeat Angelo State 36-35. The Lions stopped an ASU drive at the 2-yard line with less than two minutes to play. MSU rallied from 11 points down to defeat Eastern New Mexico 26-21 on a touchdown with 1:20 remaining.
-Back on September 19th Augustana lost 35-34 to Minnesota State-Moorhead on a touchdown pass on the final play of the game. Last week the Vikings beat Winona State by the same score on a touchdown pass on the game*s final play. The Vikings (8-2) needed that win to keep their playoff hopes alive.
PSAC Championship Game
Slippery Rock (9-1) at West Chester (7-3)
WCU started the season 0-2 but has rebounded nicely to win the PSAC East. The Rams lead the conference in total defense and other than one poor showing in a loss to Shippensburg, WCU has been solid offensively. However, they will be playing an SRU team that has been the best in the conference all year long. The Rock is so explosive offensively with three different running backs with more than 500 rushing yards and six receivers with at least 17 receptions. Slippery Rock 40 West Chester 30
Northeast 10 Championship Game
New Haven (7-3) at Assumption (9-1)
As I mentioned earlier, the Greyhounds have been extremely opportunistic this season. In the first game with New Haven, Assumption was out-gained 443 to 189 but still managed to pull out a 23-17 win. These things tend to even out over the course of a season and UNH has been playing some great football of late. New Haven 31 Assumption 23
CIAA Championship Game
Bowie State (9-1) versus Winston-Salem State (5-5)
WSSU has won four of its last five to win the CIAA*s South Division and get to this game. But the strength of the CIAA this year was in the North Division and BSU was its best team. These two teams are comparable defensively, but the Bulldogs are so much more explosive on offense that I just don*t see WSSU staying in this game. Bowie State 31 Winston-Salem State 19
SIAC Championship Game
Miles (6-4) versus Albany State (6-3)
It was a tale of two haves the first time these two teams met, as ASU rallied from a 14-0 halftime deficit to win 29-16. The ASU defense took over in that game, as the Rams scored two defensive touchdowns and added a safety in the second half. I expect another defensive oriented contest as that*s the way the games are played in the SIAC, but I think ASU is a little stronger on both sides of the ball. Albany State 20 Miles 12
LSC Championship Game
Midwestern State (9-1) at Texas A&M-Commerce (8-2)
TAMUC forced six turnovers and jumped out to a 21-0 lead in beating MSU 27-14 three weeks ago. The turnovers were uncharacteristic of the Mustangs and I do not expect that to happen again. If MSU can contain the chunk plays they gave up to the TAMUC passing game in the first match up they stand a good chance. Texas A&M Commerce 21 Midwestern State 20
Florida Tech (7-3) at Valdosta State (7-2)
With both teams having two D2 losses and ranked 6th and 7th in the Super Region One rankings, the winner will get a playoff berth while the loser will be left to sweat it out on Sunday. FTU is red hot, with six straight wins, including the 28-26 upset over top-ranked West Georgia last Saturday. VSU is hot as well, with four straight wins. These teams are very similar on paper, but I give the Blazers a slight edge because they do a better job of taking care of the football and they have this game at home. Valdosta State 27 Florida Tech 24
Humboldt State (8-1) at Western Oregon (7-3)
HSU won 29-20 when these two teams played in the season opener, but that of course was over two months ago. For WOU to turn the tables in this one, they must find a way to contain HSU standout running back Ja*Quan Gardner. Gardner rushed for 201 yards the first time these teams played and he has 1735 yards rushing and 21 touchdowns this year. Humboldt State 28 Western Oregon 21
Mailbag
[Q] Why does Division II not give automatic berths to conference champions in football?
[A] D2 has a by-law that requires that a certain number of schools sponsor a sport before automatic berths are awarded in that sport. D2 does not have enough schools playing football to meet that requirement. It is my understanding that this is something that the NCAA is looking at changing.
It could really change the face of the D2 playoffs in the future if auto-bids were awarded to conferences. Just look at the four leagues that have championship games this week (Northeast 10, CIAA, PSAC and LSC). In each of those games there is at least one team playing that does not have much of a shot at reaching the playoffs with things as they are now.
Contact
Feel free to contact me with any comments or criticisms or if you have a question you'd like answered in the Mailbag.