September 6th, 2016 12:00am
While it is certainly true that playoff berths are not secured in the first week of the season, results in early non-conference games can definitely stack the deck for or against a conference come playoff selection time. A couple of examples for you on the opposite ends of the spectrum:
The PSAC went 10-2 last week against non-conference D2 competition, including 6-1 against Northeast-10 teams. It was not as if the PSAC dominated, as seven of the ten wins were by a single score. Even Cheyney got in on the action, as the Wolves broke their 41-game losing streak by beating Lincoln (PA) 21-20 in overtime. But for strength of schedule purposes, a win is a win and the PSAC did plenty of that last weekend.
There are seven playoff spots in each region, and due in large part to the strength of schedule boost these early wins will give the conference, I am guessing the PSAC will get at least three if not four of those spots. This is the advantage that comes with winning non-conference games. A PSAC team has only advanced out of the region once in the last six years so a good argument can be made that the other leagues in SR1 are stronger and more deserving of playoff spots. I can already foresee my inbox filling with angry emails from MEC and CIAA fans come November.
On the other side of the ledger is the SAC, which had a disastrous 1-7 opening weekend, with six of those non-conference losses coming against other D2 teams. Three of the seven losses were to teams that made the playoff field last year, but this is a very rough start for a league that saw three of its eight members make the playoffs in 2015.
The good news for the SAC is that there is an opportunity to turn things around with 19 non-conference D2 games still remaining on the schedule over the course of the season. Super Region 2 also has the fewest teams of any region which makes it more likely that multiple SAC teams will get picked. But at this point, I think it is pretty likely only one or at the most two teams make the playoffs from this league in 2016.
News and Notes from Around the Country in Week One
-Mike Kellar's first game as Lenoir-Rhyne head coach was a rocky one as the Bears were throttled by Virginia State 34-9. Kellar- who was previously the coach at California (PA)- revamped the flexbone offense that LRU has run for years into a more traditional one this year. The results were not pretty as the Bears managed just 55 rushing yards last week after averaging 385 per game in 2015.
-I said last week that the Harlon Hill candidacy of Colorado Mines quarterback Justin Dvorak could hinge on his week one performance against Colorado State-Pueblo. Dvorak definitely passed the week one test, shredding the CSUP defense for 402 yards and six touchdown passes in a 57-21 victory. More importantly, CSM has set itself up as the favorite to win the RMAC.
-Kudos to the Cheyney Wolves for breaking their 43-game losing streak with a 21-20 overtime victory over Lincoln (PA). The last Cheyney win also came against Lincoln back in the 2012 season opener.
-The first football game in Texas-Permian Basin history was a huge success. The Falcons defeated DIII opponent Sul Ross State 27-6 before 13,856 fans in Odessa. While I am sure first game curiosity played a major factor in the huge crowd, the Falcons play the rest of September at home, and have seven home games total. Even if they only draw home crowds half the size of the opener, UTPB could have a huge year attendance wise.
-Veteran Bemidji State Head Coach Jeff Tesch was put on a leave of absence last week due to a complaint filed against him at the university. Veteran assistant Brent Bolte was named the interim coach last week and the Beavers were able to defeat Upper Iowa 38-24 in their opener. All references to Tesch have been removed from the BSU website so I think it is safe to assume his future with the program looks bleak. BSU was picked as one of the favorites in the NSIC this season, so it will be interesting to see how they perform without their long-time head coach.
-Jeff Ziemba threw for 315 yards and a pair of touchdowns, but the Rams struggled to pull away in the second half from West Virginia Wesleyan, winning by a final score of 27-12. While I still expect to the Rams to be the class of the WVIAC this season, there is clearly some work to do if this team is going to have a shot at making it back to Kansas City.
-Slippery Rock versus New Haven was billed as a big in-region contest in SR1 and the game did not disappoint. SRU led 14-0 early, only to see UNH storm back to take a 28-14 lead early in the fourth quarter. However, The Rock scored the game's last 17 points, taking the lead for good on Shamar Greene's two-yard touchdown run with 1:57 remaining. Greene finished with 162 yards rushing.
-Central Missouri's 34-27 win over Pittsburg State lived up to the pregame billing, with a 79-yard Garrett Fugate to Tyler Jones late in the 4th quarter proving to be the winning points. An apparent hand injury that knocked PSU starting quarterback John Roderique out of the game in the first quarter played a major role in this game and could be a big problem for the Gorillas if he is out any length of time.
Top Games this Week
Slippery Rock (1-0) at West Chester (1-0)
Both teams have already had a chance to establish some resiliency as both rallied from double digit fourth quarter deficits to win last week. I give The Rock a slight edge because Shamar Greene is so tough to stop. Slippery Rock 30 West Chester 23
Ferris State (1-0) at Michigan Tech (1-0)
The debut of FSU quarterback Reggie Bell was definitely a success last week as Bell ran and passed for over 100 yards. But the real story for the Bulldogs was the performance of the defense, which limited a decent Ohio Dominican team to just 198 yards of offense in a 41-0 win. It is never easy to go all the way up to MTU and win, but a team's chances improve when they can play great defense. Ferris State 31 Michigan Tech 19
Clarion (1-0) at Bloomsburg (1-0)
The right arm of Connor Simmons led Clarion to a 7-0 start last season before a lack of defense and depth caught up to the Golden Eagles. Simmons is back at it this year, throwing for 396 yards and four touchdowns in the season opening win over Lock Haven. The challenge for the Huskies will be to run the ball well enough to play keep away from Simmons and the Clarion offense. This should be a very entertaining game. Bloomsburg 29 Clarion 27
Tuskegee (1-0) at Albany State (0-1)
ASU dropped its opener to Valdosta State, but the Rams dominated in chunks of the game before turnovers and special teams mistakes cost them in a 16-7 loss. If the Rams can cut down on the mistakes, they stand an excellent chance in this game. Albany State 20 Tuskegee 17
Texas A&M-Commerce (0-0) at Delta State (1-0)
The TAMUC offense-- led by preseason LSC Offensive Player of the Year Richard Cooper-- will be very good, but the defense is almost completely revamped and an unknown. To win, the Lions will need to put pressure on DSU standout quarterback Tyler Sullivan, but who knows if they have the personnel to do it? Last year when these teams met TAMUC won in a 51-44 shootout. I expect similar this season, but I have to give the Statesmen the edge at home. Delta State 45 Texas A&M- Commerce 41
Azusa Pacific (1-0) at Humboldt State (1-0)
After big opening wins- APU defeated West Texas A&M and HSU won at Carson-Newman- these two teams will do battle to see team is the early favorite out west. They are really polar opposites of each other as HSU can score points in bunches while the Cougars are conservative offensively and rely on a stingy defense. I think the APU defense keeps the score down in this one, but I give the Lumberjacks a slight edge at home. Humboldt State 27 Azusa Pacific 24
Bemidji State (1-0) at Minnesota State (1-0)
As I mentioned earlier, Jeff Tesch is on a leave of absence and not coaching the Beavers at this time. Whether that has much of an effect on this game remains to be seen. Even without Tesch on the sidelines, if there ever was a year for the Beavers to knock off a team like MSU, this is it. BSU is very experienced on both sides of the ball while MSU is still finding its identity with so many new faces. I expect the Beaver offense-- led by quarterback Jordan Hein-- to keep them in the game, but I question whether BSU has the depth up front on both sides of the ball to win it. Minnesota State 28 Bemidji State 23
Mailbag
[Q] I really don't understand what the Lone Star Conference is doing with these new teams. Western New Mexico and Panhandle State have never been very good and Texas-Permian Basin is brand new. Won't these teams drag down the entire league?
[A] I agree that WNMU and OPSU are not real strong D2 programs. But the LSC was kind of between a rock and a hard place with numbers and could not continue to function with just seven teams. The teams that were added fit within the general footprint of the league and give everyone nine guaranteed games.
If you look at some of the other leagues around the country, the NSIC has some very weak programs but has had both Minnesota-Duluth and Minnesota State reach the national championship game the last few years. Colorado State-Pueblo won it all in 2014 coming from the RMAC which has a few weak programs. Shepherd made it last year from the MEC and there are weak programs in that conference as well. It is been 22 years since an LSC team played for a national championship, but if a team is strong enough to get there they will not be held back by the current makeup of the league.
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